How Giannis created an era of copy-cats

That was a 6'11 guy coming at the defense like a tidal wave, and this play has spawned an entire offense that's becoming more and more popular in the NBA, only it didn't even exist until a few seasons ago. Back in the day, big athletic forwards attacked from way outside by outracing defenses in transition. If slashing wings wanted to build up ahead of steam, it had to be on the fast break. And to find enough space to create a runway, they basically had to push before the defense could get set in the paint. Once defenses were back, the lane was clogged, and great penetrators often resorted to other measures. But, as teams spaced out to the three-point line more, these great transition players could fly downhill in early offense, which really started to take off around 2019, with Giannis Adetokounmpo leading a good offense to his first MVP. The defining play of that season might have been Giannis slashing and Eurostepping through backpedaling defenders, and of course, this coincided with Brook Lopez stretching out to the three-point line to open the floor for Giannis' slashing. This was a completely new offense under coach Mike Budenholzer, and unlocked Giannis as a ball handler from way outside the arc, because even when defenses sagging off of him, he was too difficult to contain in space. Look at what happened to Giannis' screening. He went from setting 26 screens every 100 possessions in 2017, all the way down to 9 And a big reason was all this space he had to build up ahead of steam and attack from the outside. Note that this was almost antithetical to the NBA's spacing boom. Instead of a guard like Steph Curry or Damian Lillard handling the ball beyond the arc as a pull-up threat, this was a big man who couldn't shoot, initiating from way outside, just so he could get closer to the basket. In a way, this is the other side of the shooting revolution, where a non-shooter actually benefits a ton if he's a great penetrator. The historical role for non-shooting bigs was of course to post up, and once the Ekimel Ajuan Rockets created the blueprint, this inside-out game was how shooters could help non-stretchy big men. But the post-up often mucks up spacing and isn't as effective without the illegal defense rules of the 80s and 90s, which meant there was very little demand for these post-up specialists. And while there was excitement about Giannis having quote-unquote guard skills, he didn't really have guard skills for this era, instead he was a good ball handler who could basically slash and move like a wing. And these kinds of plays, with Giannis initiating from outside, became staples of the box offense. And to me, this is the Giannis offense, and it has two major components. First is to create space so a big forward or even center has a runway to attack like this, often in early transition, and second is for that ball handling forward to receive an inverted screen from a guard, often inside the three-point line, to create more downhill pressure on the rim. We'll talk about why being a guard is important in a second, but there's a key theme here. This works for big athletic downhill players who can't necessarily shoot, but can handle the ball and finish like this. The seeds of this have existed for a while, I'm reminded of Game 3 of the 1991 finals, where the Bulls elected to take the ball in the backcourt down by two so Michael Jordan could build up a head of steam on his drive. Or the end of regulation in LeBron James' legendary Game 5 vs Detroit back in 07, where the Cavs spaced the floor with three shooters, and LeBron literally backed up to create a downhill runway on both plays. If Giannis and Bud popularized this model, LeBron was basically the prototype. He's a little different because of how great he was as a passer and pick and roll maestro, and he would shoot jumpers from everywhere, so this kind of downhill attack wasn't as common for him because he had so many other skills. And outside of LeBron, there simply weren't many big ball handlers before the 2010s, and without modern spacing, those driving lanes weren't open for most of these big forwards. In his last year in Miami, James was basically the only big wing in the league running inverted pick and rolls with his guards. And before the spacing boom took hold, even those plays looked quite different. But once there was more space to attack, big skilled ball handlers could blast to the rim, or use a low screen to handcuff the defense into a really tricky choice. When the screener is a small guard who can shoot like this, defenses don't want to leave him, which opens up driving gaps for the ball handler. Here the coverage is to briefly slow down the ball without switching, but the big man is so freaked out about the shooter, he bails early and it's a total breakdown. And of course, the reason they're freaked out is because JJ Reddick shot 42% from three in his career, which is pretty good for a podcaster. Also yes, Ben Simmons was quite dangerous in this downhill offense before back pain Researching this video reminded me that Giannis takes two and a half hour naps before every game. And if you've reached the age where sleep hygiene is in your vocabulary, or you want to avoid the Ben Simmons morning back pain, I hope you'll check out today's sponsor, Bear Mattress. We got you 40% off and two free pillows, and here's how it works. First, you take a sleep quiz, which I love because I run hot and sleep in a few different positions, including the Marty McFly special. So finding a mattress that alleviates back pain and regulates temperature allows me to wake up and watch basketball all day. They gave me the Elite Hybrid Firm, and then they ship that to you in a box. You unpack that sucker with some basic arts and craft skills. And man, I could have swished that unfold right into the frame there, but I did not fully trust the process. Either way, I can confirm this is a legit firm mattress. You can see some limited give here around the elbows, but it's also like kind of being on a cloud. And this mattress is fiberglass free. It's rated environmentally friendly. It's ceiling and power to help me stay cool at night. And the first time I slept on this thing was probably the best side sleep I've ever had without a side support pillow or crumpling up all the covers or something. And I haven't had any temperature issues. This thing took me into the darkness like the Sandman. So head over to baremattress.com slash Thinking Basketball and use code Thinking Basketball to get 40% off your mattress plus two free pillows. This is a special deal I got for Thinking Basketball viewers and is subject to change. And you also get a sleep trial to see if you like your mattress, where you can get a full refund for up to 120 days. Again, baremattress.com slash Thinking Basketball and use code Thinking Basketball for that 40% off. And this is also just a great way to support our channel. Anyway, Giannis also ran this with shooters whose gravity made it difficult to slow down the freight train. The speed of these screens from little guys creates a ton of confusion. Will the shooter sprint right by or stop and actually screen? And all this happens in a millisecond and then it's over. And the speed can also leave a defender behind the play. Peyton Pritchard's calling for a pre-switch here. That moment of hesitation creates an opening and Giannis can attack the space that way. Note that setting the pick at this flat angle makes it really hard to figure out which direction the ball is going. And so sometimes defenses will just briefly step out to slow down Giannis while the big man goes under the screen. But here he's too low and there's still space for him to eat up and finish. So back in 2019, you could count these big downhill attackers on one hand. But by 2025, we've seen an explosion of players who can run this Giannis offense. While today's NBA is still dominated by some form of pick and roll or handoff action, the Giannis offense in the middle of the floor is becoming more prevalent. According to tracking data, 12% of NBA possessions this year have a forward or center running either an inverted pick and roll or driving in isolation. And that number includes all the teams that don't even have downhill slashers. This year's Grizzlies are at 19% of possessions like this, similar to the Bucs' highest number with Giannis, and the 2021 Pelicans were over 20% with Zion Williamson. After Giannis, Zion was the next big name to punish backpedaling defenders inside the three-point arc like this. And he's had false starts with injury, but is still absurdly difficult to contain in a downhill offense. And we have a ton more now. Jaron Jackson Jr. has taken advantage of Memphis' progressive spacing all year. And he's not quite as quick as the big wings, but he has extraordinary touch on push shots deep in the paint. Because he's so big, the ball handling and body control make this very hard to contain. And this downhill concept applies off the catch as a trailer like this as well. That was also true for Giannis, who could be put in the same position off ball like this in early offense. So if you have a teammate that can draw attention, that makes it even harder to contain the slasher coming downhill. Jaron does have an extra dimension that most of these big athletes don't, which is his shooting. He's 35% on his career from three on fairly high volume. So if his man sags too far off, he can let it fly in these spots. And in a student-teacher moment this year against the De La Cumpo, he caught it as the trailer and then faked the three to get downhill and then pass. And passing is a huge element here too, because defenses will throw extra defenders into the driving lanes, which opens great shots for teammates. So without good passing, there's no natural counter to the defense's primary mode of survival. Years ago, we discussed the Giannis rules when the Raptors loaded up on these drives against the De La Cumpo in their playoff comeback. And Giannis' passing wasn't as sharp then, missing three fairly wide open shooters against an enormous wall of defenders here. But by the 2021 finals, I thought Giannis did a great job against the wall with some of these early kickouts to better shooters. So when the sun slid a ton of defenders into his driving gaps, he quickly sprayed to the perimeter and created openings that way. Like all things in basketball, the better the passing, the harder it is to defend the scoring threat. And in particular, reading the floor quickly off a live dribble is key here. Zion's been a willing passer on these plays since basically entering the league, so that ball-handling passing combination can make it very hard to defend, especially with good spacing. Another new downhill protege this year is Portland's fifth-year man Danny Avdija, who is aptly named Turbo because he blasts into space like he dropped a nitro boost. Avdija's listed at 6'9 240, so he has freakish straight-line speed with such a powerful build. And, like Jaren, he can shoot in these spots. He's at 37% from downtown on moderate volume, and that means when guards set the pick, defenses can't easily go under to contain the drive. Portland's played most of the year with a traditional big, and that brings an extra help defender into the paint. So on plays where they lift the big man to the outside, you really see Avdija's potential downhill dominance. When they can create that luxurious first-class five-out spacing, he is extremely difficult to contain in isolation, and he's particularly tantalizing because he can pass pretty well at these high speeds. And that makes the inverted pick-and-roll game with a guard much trickier to defend, and it bodes very well for playing with all kinds of cutters and finishers along with good shooters. Another downhill slasher is Jonathan Kuminga, who is still somehow only 22, and at a healthy 6'7 barefoot, he has great burst and explosiveness off the ground. But he's an interesting case study because he lacks the vision of most good ball handlers, and he's struggled thus far in his career in more subtle areas like tempo and decision-making. He sort of messes up his footwork turning the corner here, so he can't easily hit buddy heel lifting to the wing, and instead throws it to a covered teammate. This means his ability to play that pick-and-pop game with a guard will be less effective and easier to contain for defenses, although he's athletic enough to still be a dangerous scoring threat on that action. And remember how powerful it is to have a shooter like Steph Curry set the pick, which opens driving space for Kuminga to do his thing. Pascal Siakam has used this downhill spacing a lot over the years, although as he's matured he's often looked to turn his back to the basket and get to his spots instead of flying to the rim. And there are other candidates flirting with this mold in the league right now. Scotty Barnes has some of these skills. A ton of Men Thompson's offensive excitement right now centers around this Giannis offense. We have a member's video on his offensive potential if he's put in a situation with more spacing and shooting around him. And I think part of the promise of someone like Paulo Manqueiro is his downhill rim pressure. Paulo's a huge ball handler who can pass, and he uses that size much like Giannis, but he's probably the slowest of all these players and can't always just eat up space. Even small guards can effectively run this same style of downhill offense, although it's much harder for them because their size means they aren't as deadly finishing at the rim. We've even seen more natural centers put in these positions more this season with Evan Mobley in Cleveland. They've certainly used him as an initiator running inverted pick and rolls to take advantage of that passing. And before he was traded to Dallas, the Lakers were using Anthony Davis in a very similar role. Again, having just a little downhill power to pair with ball handling and passing skills off the bounce unlocks so much with today's modern spacing. The really big question is how this works with a second non-shooter, especially in the playoffs, because all these players who can't shoot off the dribble are much easier to defend in pick and roll. But think about how far we've come in just a few years. The 2018 Milwaukee offense offered hints as to what Giannis could do, but for the most part it was a completely different philosophical approach for using a giant skilled slasher. Will more teams have these players in the future? How much of an entire offense can be built around this middle downhill attack? Only the future will tell, but it's been exciting watching this relatively new offense unlock skilled athletic forwards and even centers who in the past would have been relegated to post-ups or rebounding duties, but instead have evolved into the downhill disciples of one of the greatest players to ever play the game. To support this channel, patreon.com slash thinking basketball, that's where we have proprietary stats on teams and players throughout the year. We also have a discord community and you can get all of our extra video content over there or sign up on YouTube as a member where we also live stream the podcast. Thanks for watching all the way to the end on this one. Hope you enjoyed it and that you are having a great day.