Big Jobs Miss Suggests Economy Is Sicker Than Believed | Lance Roberts
Premiered Sep 6, 2025 Thoughtful Money (with Adam Taggart)
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The jobs market is starting to show signs of being in real trouble.
August payrolls were a huge disappointment, coming in at a VERY weak 22k (vs expectations of 75k).
And the June payrolls number was revised downwards to a LOSS of -13k jobs,.
On top of that, this week's JOLTS data revealed that there are now fewer jobs openings than applicants, something we haven't seen since the early days of COVID.
As the unemployment rate now rises to 4.3%, should we expect it to begin rising more aggressively from here as the economy continues to slow?
Are we seeing the early warning signs that a recession lies ahead?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as the latest technical analysis for stocks, the ongoing breakout in gold & silver, the attractiveness of the oversold energy sector, prudent risk management best practices, and Lance's firm's latest trades.
For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this latest Market Recap.
#labormarket #unemployment #recession
0:00 - Gold and silver breakout to all-time highs, time to trim positions
1:38 - Gold’s technical pattern, money flows rotating between assets
4:14 - Personal note: Community support for Lance’s wife’s chemo treatment
5:38 - Jobs market: ADP, JOLTS, payrolls (22,000 vs. 75,000 expected)
7:39 - Unemployment rate at 4.3%, historical patterns signal recession risk
15:59 - Boomer retirements impacting workforce, risk of unretirement
18:01 - Risks of early retirement, skill gap challenges in AI-driven economy
20:07 - Jobs added vs. unemployment rate, concerning trend
22:30 - Consumer spending cuts, restaurant margins, and pricing issues
26:53 - Food pricing, AI, robotics, and potential deflationary impacts
28:20 - Corporate debt maturity wall, rising consumer debt APRs
32:33 - Technical Analysis: S&P near all-time highs, institutional buying
35:33 - Negative divergences in momentum, potential 5–8% correction
37:26 - Credit spreads tight, no immediate market risk signaled
40:01 - Market drivers: High investor sentiment vs. corporate buyback end
43:00 - Portfolio risk management: Position sizing, stop losses, selling early
47:16 - Gold’s overbought condition, historical corrections, hedging strategies
54:47 - Hedging physical gold with put options or inverse funds
59:20 - Mistakes of holding concentrated positions (e.g., Lehman, Enron)
1:06:14 - Real Investment Advice guide: Rules for managing portfolio risk
1:07:55 - Energy sector as a contrarian opportunity, bullish oil bets at 17-year lows
1:13:18 - Oil prices deviating from 4-year average, potential reversal
1:16:56 - Fed rate cuts: 88.2% chance of 25bps cut on September 17th
1:20:04 - Fed behind the curve, aggressive cuts could signal recession
1:20:51 - Bond portfolio strategy: Short-end focus, shifting to longer duration
1:22:54 - Tariff constitutionality debate, potential Supreme Court ruling
1:28:08 - Housing market correction, Buffett’s homebuilder investments
1:31:56 - Government intervention risks inflating housing further
1:32:39 - Portfolio performance: 60/40 allocation, tracking S&P 500
1:35:21 - Patience in trading, learning from Ted Williams and Warren Buffett
1:37:03 - Poll: Earning, saving, investing muscles, focus on earning in downturn
1:42:42 - Importance of multiple income streams, avoiding work-life balance trap
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