TikTok sale: Beijing’s leverage and hidden security risks

Tik Tok is arguably the biggest news concerning the United States and China. The US Treasury Secretary Scott Besson and China's vice premier had a meeting in Madrid and they after that they announced that a a framework agreement was reached between the two countries for China to sell the US part of Tik Tok to the United States. I told you I don't have a positive feeling about this deal. I do not believe that it will come to fruition because there are several key issues driving the Chinese and the Americans apart. It looks like China made concessions. This this was confirmed not just confirmed by Scott Bassend but also by the Chinese at a press conference in China today. Wangqing Tao, deputy director of the cyerspace administration of China and a participant in the talks in Madrid offered a new offered some details. He said the two sides reached a basic consensus to resolve the disputes over a third-party operation of US user data, content security functions and IP licensing including the algorithm. So the key word here is basic consensus. Now at first I was surprised by this outcome, but the more I looked into it, the less surprising it became. China made a concession on Tik Tok to pursue what it really wanted, a Trump sheet summit in Beijing. And this was reported by the Wall Street Journal. According to the Journal, Chinese diplomats have been actively lobbying Trump to visit China for the past two months. and US officials have floated the late October Apex summit in South Korea as the venue for uh the two leaders to meet. But Beijing prefers a bilateral summit on its own soil. So that's when things clicked. Xiinping is betting everything on Trump's visit to Beijing to help him survive his internal power struggles. That's why he's willing to make a concession on Tik Tok. He does not want to step down. His eyes are on the upcoming fourth platinum. To justify his grip on power, he needs validation from outside. And all of Beijing's demands on Washington are aimed at securing Trump's appearance in Beijing before or after Apac, which will be held, I think, from October 31st to November 1st in South Korea. So, she wants Trump's visit for several reasons. First, he believes that on home turf, he can present the trip to the Chinese people as proof that the US president needs something from him. Second, it allows him to project strength to the party elite. Third, it lets him showcase internationally that China stands shoulder-to-shoulder with the US, even to the point where Washington's leader travels to Beijing to seek him out. For Xiinping, such optics provide the desperately needed endorsement at the fourth plan. Now, you may ask, what about Xiinping's opponents, the anti-shi forces? Haven't we talked over and over about the fact that Xiinping has lost power? Why would his opponents allow him to gain politically by inviting Trump? Well, my answer is they are in this together with Shei. The anti-shi forces are now controlled by the reformists faction. People like Wabyang. These people desperately want to rebuild the country's economy. By having the US president visit China, Beijing can use the optics to boost confidence in Chinese market and attract investments. It's actually the biggest confidence booster. Nothing else can compare. So, they won't oppose it either. For now, both the she forces and then the anti-shi forces are on this together. Um, the Wall Street Journal also said that the Chinese Premier Lee Chang will attend the UN General Assembly later this month and he is expected to meet senior US officials to press for a Trump visit and to signal that if Trump goes to China this year, Xiinping will be willing to attend the G20 summit next year in the US. So, here's the big question. Will Trump go to Beijing? I highly doubt it. My answer is no. Here are my here are my reasons. First of all, the Chinese want Trump to go to Beijing. So, Xiinping will come attend G20 next year in the US. I think it will be held in Miami. Although Trump's visit to China will benefit Beijing tremendously, she's visit Miami will gain Trump nothing politically. Instead, he may be accused of being too cozy with dictators like Xiinping and Putin by his by his opponent by the Democrats. Secondly, um judging by the previous four trade talks between the two countries, China and the United States are far from reaching any deals. Now, all four talks took place in European cities. They're neither in DC nor Beijing. This shows the two countries lack fundamental trust. Most countries send their delegates or delegations to DC to negotiate or the US trade representatives go to their countries. Now, if China and the United States avoid each other, or if they can't even agree on where they're going to meet, I highly doubt the two sides would reach any substantial deals concerning trade in a month. And if there's no deal, Trump will not go to Beijing. He will look awful if he did. This all reflects the fundamental difference between the two countries. China is authoritarian, one party state. The US is a democracy. So for Xiinping, he cares only about his power at the moment, not necessarily his economy or his people. Washington seeks substance and Beijing wants optics. That's why negotiations between the two are always difficult and unlikely to achieve anything. So far, Beijing has ignored Trump's demand for major increases in US soybean imports and has done nothing to stop the flow of fentinel related chemicals into the US. In addition, China has not kept its promises to ease rare earth restrictions, but has tightened its control over supply. If this stalling does not stop, Trump's frustration only grows and there's no way he's going to he's going to Beijing. If Trump refuses to go to Beijing, here's the problem. Will Beijing still allow the Tik Tok deal come forth? My answer is it's hard to say because all we have so far is a framework. I mean, a framework agreement and in Beijing's own words, a basic consensus. Um, so anyone in business knows it's it's one thing to have a framework agreement and it's another to negotiate the terms. Um, and Beijing is notorious in keeping its promises. So, if ba if Trump doesn't give Beijing what it wants, the CCP may walk back on any agreement. The CCP's tactic is to drag out the trade talks while making minimum concessions. Its strategy is to stall until after next year's midterm elections. They're gambling that Trump will lose his majority in the House, making it harder for him to press his policies. And think about it, the midterm elections is only about a year away, and it's not that far. Um, so the stakes are high on both sides. All right, so that's my argument number one. Now, my second reason is the concern of the deal itself. Besson said the Tik Tok deal's commercial terms are complete, but he didn't reveal the details, but he did say the commercial side of the deal will preserve the app's quote Chinese characteristics, though he did not elaborate. And this is what he said. He said they are interested in Chinese characteristics of the app, which they think are soft power. Bessent reportly said this. He said, "We don't care about Chinese characteristics. We care about national security. Now, I think Secretary Besson and the US government should not underestimate the phrase Chinese characteristics. This phrase worries me. We know there are not Chinese characteristics, they are CCP characteristics. Mark my word, anytime Beijing says Chinese characteristics, they mean Chinese Communist Party features or CCP features and attributes. We should not keep any of those in the app for Americans. They are only detrimental. CCP is the master of deception and have always dressed up their lethal weapons as sugarcoated, harmless cultural programs like the Confucious Institute and the student exchange programs. So, Americans shouldn't make the same mistake anymore. The US government must remove these Chinese characteristics from the app. period. And so this may become a major issue during the real negotiations or even operations. Uh my third concern is about the ownership of Tik Tok. The new ownership has not been finalized or has not been announced. Reports suggest that the Chinese will still own 20% and a consortion of investors, American investors led by Oracle will own 80%. Well, first of all, I don't believe this co-ownership style. I do not believe in co-ownership with the Chinese. The Americans should own it 100% or nothing. Co-ownership with the Chinese is breeding ground for future problems. Also, Oracle's role also makes me worried. Earlier this year, Trump said that he's he'd be in favor of Elon Musk or Larry Ellison buying Tik Tok. Larry Ellison is the co-founder of Oracle, who is still the chairman, I believe, and he's now the world's richest man, overtaking Elon Musk. And so, it sounds like he's going to be involved in Tik Tok. Now, I have a problem with Mr. Ellison's involvement in Tik Tok. This is his new wife. He married a Chinese woman. Her name is Juin. I hope that's the right pronunciation, but she's also known as Jolan Juul. She's 33 years old and 47 years younger than Ellison. She graduated from University of Michigan and is very lowkey. Very little is known about where she's from and how they met. Uh she reportedly lived briefly in Redwood Shores uh Cal California that is near Oracle's former headquarters after graduation. Media reports describe her as coming from a wealthy family. And so Miss Drew has been spotted with Ellison, Larry Ellison, multiple times since 2018. So, it seems like the two have known each other for uh quite some time and they're believed to have married in 2023, I believe, and it is Mr. Ellison's fifth marriage. The fact that she came from a wealthy family gives me an eerie feeling. Most of the wealthy Chinese are somewhat intertwined with the CCP's power network or else they wouldn't be able to make the money. If she's from an ordinary family and is or if she's from a poor family and is truly a gold digger, I'd be feeling relieved. At least you know what her intention is. The fact that she has her family in Beijing and they're somewhat wealthy or influential, that means Beijing can use her family as what? Hostage to coers her to work for them, right? I mean, she I'm not saying there's some some issue with her. I mean, she could be totally okay, but the CCP will not let her go. They will take advantage of her relationship and you and may use her family in China against her. So she has that handicapped. All right. So against that backdrop, if Larry Ellison takes control of Tik Tok, if Larry Ellison takes control of Tik Tok, it does not inspire confidence, at least not in me. This is not about prejudice against Chinese spouses. I'm Chinese myself. But they are the weakest link as they can be manipulated by the regime. Just look around. Rubert Murdoch married a Chinese woman. Look how that turned out. and the editor-inchief of the New York Times has a Chinese wife. Look at what the Times has become. So, with all that said, I highly doubt the Tik Tok deal will come to fruition because too much is at stake for both China and the United States. Trump is not going to Beijing to help Xiinping stay in power. The Americans should not and will not accept the so-called Chinese characteristics in the app. On top of that, people like me remain uneasy about the security risks tied to the prospective new owner. These are only three issues I identified within a few hours. A closer look at the framework will likely reveal even more loopholes. That's why I remain skeptical that the deal can actually be fulfilled.