Is Worry Dead? Nearly All Assets Are Rising Now | Lance Roberts
Premiered 6 hours ago Thoughtful Money (with Adam Taggart)
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The bulls are fully in charge right now.
Nearly all asset classes are rising together at this point.
That's not supposed to happen.
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the elevated state of market valuations and what that likely means for the future of asset prices. We also discuss AI, inflation, weakening stock buybacks, bonds/stablecoins, Big Pharma, Lance's firm's latest trades and even....life on Mars.
For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.
#inflation #federalreserve #interestrates
0:00 - Acknowledging 9/11 anniversary, personal reflections on the event
4:50 - Happy 25th anniversary to Adam, encounter with a fan, TheraGun gift
6:44 - Market speculation: QMM stock up 2,000% on crypto treasury, Oracle surges 40%
8:58 - Oracle’s gain confirms Nvidia’s AI capex projections, infrastructure benefits
11:39 - Simplevisor portfolios: AI up 7%, all-weather up 5%, accumulator up 6.5% in 45 days
13:11 - Speculative frenzy: All assets (stocks, bonds, gold) surging, no divergences
14:35 - Risk range report: Markets overbought, bullish crossovers support, 5–10% correction likely
20:46 - Market health analogy: Strong now, can handle small corrections, not major crash
22:23 - Credit spreads tight, but economic slowdown (jobs, PPI, CPI) signals widening
24:59 - Taking profits in overbought positions (gold miners, Oracle), rebalancing portfolios
27:47 - Risks: End-of-quarter rebalancing, stock buyback window closing
29:38 - Year-end S&P target unchanged, expect volatility, 12–13% annual return possible
31:12 - Curb Your Enthusiasm: Volatility met, but optimism warranted with risk management
33:48 - Inflation data weaker (CPI at 2.7%), tariffs not driving price surges
36:19 - Slowing economy likely trumps inflationary pressures, favors bonds
38:42 - CPI dominated by housing (42%), declining rents drive lower inflation
41:03 - Housing risks: Rate cuts may not solve affordability, inventory dump possible
42:56 - Corporate profit margins diverge from GDP, earnings estimates too optimistic
46:54 - Reshoring reimports business cycle volatility, manufacturing’s economic multiplier
49:23 - Bonds benefit from slowdown, massive short positions risk sharp yield drop
50:27 - Recession odds for 2026: 30%, rising in 2027, driven by jobs, manufacturing
53:19 - Stock buybacks losing potency, need larger sums for same effect
58:18 - Stablecoins’ potential to support Treasury market unchanged, needs adoption
59:23 - Strong 10-year auction, foreign demand debunks declining Treasury narrative
1:02:06 - Gold as hedge, not Treasury replacement; dollar cycles impact prices
1:11:47 - Big pharma ad restrictions: Minimal impact, companies will adapt
1:20:23 - NASA’s Mars life evidence: Microbial, boosts probability of extraterrestrial life
1:26:04 - Portfolio trades: Watching Meta, trimming overbought small/midcap positions
1:27:40 - Portfolio performance: Tracking S&P with lower risk, 12% cash allocation
1:29:50 - Charlie Kirk assassination: Reflects societal tensions, need for civil discourse
1:35:06 - Fourth Turning acceleration: Violence, unrest echo 1960s, need to reject hate
1:40:46 - Importance of open debate, Charlie Kirk’s legacy of engaging diverse views
1:44:56 - Societal solutions: Financial education, Big Brothers Big Sisters commitment
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