The Connor McDavid 'Problem'

Question. What does the best version of the best hockey player we've ever seen look like? Statistically, Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux put up numbers that simply will never be touched. In terms of points per game, Gretzky and Lemieux are in a league of their own and right after them is Conor McDavid. We're witnessing one of the greatest, if not the greatest, player ever to play the game in the middle of his prime. The only problem is he's missing one thing. A Stanley Cup. See in hockey, in order to be truly considered one of the goats, a Stanley Cup ring is a non-negotiable and in the last two years, no one has been closer than Conor McDavid. After falling short twice in the most heartbreaking way possible, heading into the 25-26 season, Conor McDavid enters the final year of his contract as an Edmonton Oiler and so, a decision looms that is so big that it can transform the entire league and the trajectory of McDavid's legacy. Now, in case you haven't heard, Conor McDavid at 28 years old and in the absolute prime of his career is entering the final season of an eight-year, $100 million deal. He became eligible to sign a new contract with Edmonton on July 1st. However, this season is a few weeks away and McDavid's future beyond the 25-26 season is still very fuzzy. At Team Canada's Olympic orientation camp two weeks ago, he told reporters that he has every intention to win in Edmonton. Yet, all options are still on the table. The confusion is understandable. Many modern NHL stars tend to choose the certainty and security of a long-term deal over taking their talents to South Beach like LeBron and exploring the open market. Sidney Crosby, for example, signed multiple long-term extensions to all but guarantee that he will retire as a one-team player for the Pittsburgh Penguins. For McDavid, there's three options on the table here for him to remain an Oiler. First, as he resigns before the season starts. Second, as he resigns during the season or third, he finishes the season and decides he wants to stick around. That last option though is probably the least likely. A generational player with a burning desire to win his first Stanley Cup getting that close to free agency is usually not a good sign. And now that Oilers fans are hyperventilating, sorry, I'm just trying to explain what's going on, but we can still explore the most possible scenario in which Conor McDavid is an Oiler and what it means for the Oilers. Knowing the hockey gods, that's probably going to happen as soon as I post this video. So you're welcome Edmonton, but above all else, if he does sign and stay with the Oilers is because he feels that the Oilers have the best chance to win the Stanley Cup, which judging by the last two years, they've shown that they're closer than 30 other teams. People do have short memories too. Yes, their depth has changed a lot this off season with some of the older fellows like Corey Perry, Evander Kane, and Conor Brown, all going out the door in favor of some younger blood, but they also forget that they did steam roll LA, Vegas, and Dallas on their way to the cup. In addition, they have a pretty damn good coach in Chris Knobloch and they have something that other franchises simply can't offer, which is a Leon Dreisaitl. That usually comes in handy when trying to win games and no duo on the planet is better than those two together. Of course, you got personal ties along with unfinished business and legacy. There's something to be said about a player who sticks with one team their entire career and wants to finish the job they started. Players like Lemieux, Eisermann, Ovechkin, Crosby, all these guys have stayed with their team and won a cup, if not multiple. McDavid has stated that he has every intention of winning in Edmonton, and so that very well may be a big factor that keeps Manolo. Now, no matter where McDavid does sign, he will be the highest paid player in the league. For this upcoming season, that title belongs to Leon Dreisaitl, who's getting a nice 14-sheets-a-year deal that accounted for 15.2% of the salary cap last season. McDavid's new deal would max out at about $19.1 million a year if he signs before the end of the season. Here lies the problem, because it is incredibly difficult to build a Stanley Cup winning team with a single player, even one as special as Conor McDavid and Dreisaitl. Hockey is a team sport. The Panthers proved that firsthand against McDavid and Dreisaitl two years in a row, so the odds of him taking a max deal and eating up a fifth of the cap is probably not going to happen, and he'll likely take a discount based on his worth no matter where he goes. But, if he wants to stay in Edmonton, the man could go the NBA route, which is signing a one-year deal, forcing the Oilers to stay in the hot seat to be competitive while maintaining flexibility and maximizing his earnings. He could go the two-to-four-year deal route, or he could just give us all the double bird and sign an eight-year deal the more. GM Stan Bowman's pitch should be simple to McDavid. After losing in back-to-back cup finals, the main sell to McDavid is that they're right there. Bowman is probably telling McDavid to trust the process and some of the surrounding pieces that they're going to bring in so that they can eventually get it done, but McDavid probably isn't sold on that. Now, the Oilers basically got no say in this negotiation. It's Conor McDavid. Whatever money and term he wants, he's going to get, but he hasn't pulled the trigger. So, that leads us down the path of the unknown and why potentially Conor McDavid wouldn't want to re-sign in Edmonton. First is he ain't convinced at all that the Oilers are set up for success, especially long-term. McDavid's most two prominent wingers are getting old. Ryan Nugent Hopkins is 32, had no clue when that happened, and Zach Hyman is 33. Their third line centre in Adam Henrik will be 36 at the end of the season, and the team's best defender, Matias Ekholm, is 35 years old. Money allocation is also a bit of a problem too. The Oilers are paying Evan Bouchard and Darnell Nurse a combined $19.75 million. To understand how steep that is, the entire Panthers decor gets a combined $24 million. Yes, I know it's Florida, but it's the competition, and acquiring that level of depth is extremely hard to do with their current cap setup. On top of that, their goalie situation hasn't gotten any better. The Vesa Toskala and Carey Price hybrid that is Stuart Skinner is still their number one goalie as they've yet to find an upgrade back there. And finally, the Oilers' prospect pipeline is one of the worst in the NHL. Outside of Matt Savoie and Isaac Howard, who are supposed to be challenging for a top six spot this season, the fall off of the next wave of players is steep, and so even if they wanted to trade away some of their future to win now, they just wouldn't have the assets. At 28 and in the prime of his career, McDavid would want to be contending for a cup far beyond just these next two seasons, which is a criteria that the Oilers may not meet. Of course, it is entirely possible that McDavid does sign throughout the season, but the longer he waits, the less options the Oilers have as an organization. While McDavid has stated he doesn't really care if this gets done during or before, we've seen what can happen if a superstar player on the last year of their deal heads into the season unsigned. As recent as this past offseason, Mitch Marner gave Toronto the double bird after last season and walked to Vegas, and before that, John Tavares did something similar to the Islanders to go to Toronto. The biggest disaster for Edmonton would be for them to lose the greatest player of this generation for absolutely nothing in return. Losing McDavid would undoubtedly set the team back a few years, but losing him for nothing could put them behind for a decade, maybe even longer. Going into this season, while unlikely, it is in the realm of possibility that the Oilers explore a trade if McDavid won't commit. McDavid has stated that he does not want this contract to become a distraction for the team, but with every day that passes by, that's exactly what happens. The other issue is where would he go where there's a better chance to win? New York? LA? Toronto? Vegas? Every team would undoubtedly move mountains if it means that they get a chance to add Karn McDavid to their roster. A change this seismic would shake the NHL, but then again, all of this could go away if McDavid just commits to the Edmonton Oilers and signs tomorrow. Until then though, this will be one of the biggest storylines to watch all throughout the 2026 NHL season, and as of right now, the Karn McDavid contract is a problem that doesn't seem like it's going away anytime soon for the Oilers or their fans. So, what do you think happens if you had to put a percentage number on whether McDavid stays or goes? What would that number be? Drop a comment down below and make sure you tune into the channel over the next couple of weeks. We're going to be having season previews, top 10 lists, and everything you need to get ready for the upcoming NHL season. So, hit that subscribe button, turn on notifications so that you don't miss a thing.