Blackrock New 2025 Report - How To Invest In A Trump Presidency

BlackRock, the world's largest money manager, just published their 2025 Mid-Year Global Outlook. The reason why you might want to pay attention is because when the rich release their playbook, smart investors pay attention. That doesn't mean you have to love BlackRock, but you might be able to learn from them. And right now, BlackRock's main objective is how do you profit when there's so much uncertainty in the economy? What is BlackRock referring to when they say uncertainty? Well, right now we have a brand and there are concerns about the economy slowing down. Now, I've already spent the time researching and reviewing the BlackRock report and I'm going to break it down for you here, but if you want to read the report for yourself, I'll also link it for you down in the description. And I want to talk about this in two parts. I want to start by talking about the concerns that BlackRock highlighted in the economy. Then number two, I want to talk about where BlackRock sees the most investment profit opportunity. More specifically, three of the major concerns that BlackRock highlighted in our economy are number one, changes in economic policy. Number two, changes in market anchors. You'll see what that means in just a second. And then number three, concerns about de-dollarization, the United States dollar losing value. Now, if you've been keeping up with the financial news or reading market briefs, you know that there's a lot of policy changes happening in our economy. President Trump signed arguably the biggest tax cuts in history. We're seeing more tariffs than we've seen in more than a hundred years. And these policy changes are expected to raise our national debt by trillions of dollars. And this is where BlackRock says, yes, all of these changes are true, but the concerns about these policy changes are overblown, at least in the short term. Since late 2024, we saw macro policy becoming a potential source of disruption. And we think that's come to pass. BlackRock is saying that ever since president Trump was elected, there was a lot And BlackRock thinks that that big disruption is over. Uncertainty levels remain elevated, driven by jarring United States economic policy shifts, but it is well below April's highs. Meaning yes, we still have uncertainty in the economy. Yes, we still have uncertainty in the stock market, but that uncertainty really peaked in April during liberation day. And now that we've understood what president Trump wants to do with tariffs, now that we understand what he wants to that uncertainty is a little bit calmer. It's not saying that the policy changes are not going to impact the economy, but the uncertainty of what might be coming is a little bit calmer now. Again, if you want to stay up to date on the financial news of things like this, my team at Briefs Media publishes a free daily report called Market Briefs, where we break down what's happening in the economy, housing, stocks, crypto, and global markets into a fun, witty, and easy-to-read newsletter. We have hundreds of thousands of investors that are reading Market Briefs every morning. And when you join Market Briefs, you're also going to get my investing masterclass as a bonus, where I'll walk you through how you can get started as an investor and find hidden investment opportunities before everybody else. So if you want to get Market Briefs plus the investing masterclass all for free, all you have to do is click the link down in the description below. But we also still have to talk about tariffs because there's a lot of uncertainty as to what's going to happen with tariffs. And this is where BlackRock says, yes, we're going to see tariffs, but they probably won't be as bad as some people think. An escalation of tariffs would be highly disruptive to supply chains. We think that provides some certainty about the near-term outlook. In other words, BlackRock is predicting that tariffs are probably not going to be super severe because if we did have really high tariffs, then that could really hurt supply chains globally. That could hurt our economy. It could hurt the global economy. So BlackRock does not think that we're going to see very high tariffs sustained for a very long time. That being said, our stock market is also more volatile than ever before because BlackRock says that markets are losing long-term market anchors. So we've talked about the policy concerns where BlackRock is saying most likely these policy concerns are not going to create as much uncertainty as previous. But now let's talk about what's going on with these market anchors. Long-term market anchors that markets have relied on for decades like stable debt, inflation, and growth have become more volatile since 2020, and that's a defining feature of the new regime we've spoken long about. What BlackRock is saying here is that there was a lot of stability before the pandemic, and that stability included stability with inflation, stability with long-term debt in the United States, and stability with growth in our economy. But now ever since the pandemic, ever since we saw all that stimulus happen in 2020, 2021, 2022, a lot of that stability, these market anchors aren't as reliable as before because now inflation is still uncertain. We have concerns about our national debt here in the United States, and growth in the economy has become a lot more uncertain. And this loss in the market anchors is why BlackRock is saying you should expect more volatility, especially in the short term in the stock market. And we've already seen this play out in 2025 because we saw three stock market crashes in the first half of 2025 alone. We saw stocks crash in February 2025 when President Trump first announced tariffs, and then we saw a global stock market crash when President Trump re-announced tariffs, and then in April we saw a global stock market sell-off at the fastest rate since COVID because of the Liberation Day tariffs. And now here we are today and the stock market is near record highs. This is why BlackRock is saying you should expect more volatility, more big moves in the stock market up and down because we don't have the same market anchors that we had before. But the other concern that BlackRock highlighted that many people have talked about is this concept of de-dollarization, the United States dollar losing value. The United States dollar is the world's reserve currency, but it's not backed by any precious metals like physical gold. It's just pieces of paper that have a promise that this paper, our dollars, have value because the United States government is backing these dollars with the strength of our military and the strength of our economy. And this is where there are some countries, particularly the BRICS countries, that's Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, that have been working to get away from the dollar by creating their own potential currency. That way they can weaken the United States dollar. This concept of moving away from the dollar and trying to weaken the dollar is called de-dollarization. This concept used to be a conspiracy theory, but now it's become a lot more public and even President Trump has addressed this saying that he is going to add more tariffs and potential sanctions to BRICS nations if they continue trying to move away from the dollar. And this is where BlackRock has identified another potential concern, but they say that this de-dollarization risk is not something you need to be worried about in the short term. Why? Because BlackRock says the greenback is still the backbone for the world's currency. By the way, quick history lesson, greenback is referring to the United States dollar and the idea, the term greenback came around during the civil war when the United States started printing these greenbacks, our currency, as a way to fund the civil war. What BlackRock is saying is, yes, we have threats to the United States dollar, but you really don't need to worry about it at least right now. The United States dollar remains the dominant currency for global transactions and finance with the euro a distant second. Shifts in reserve currency can take decades, so we are seeing the dollar remaining central. So when BlackRock is assessing the risk in our economy, what they're saying is, yeah, there's some concerns about de-dollarization, but nothing to worry about right now. That's what BlackRock says. They're also saying that we're probably going to see a lot more volatility in markets because we don't have the same market anchors. We don't have the same inflation that we did pre-pandemic. We don't have the same non-national debt concerns that we did pre-pandemic, and we don't have the same stable economic growth that we did pre-pandemic. So we'll probably see more volatility markets going up and down fast, so be prepared for that. And yes, there's a lot of changes in government policy, but the shocks from the government policy changes are probably over now. Now that we understand that, let's talk about where BlackRock sees the investment opportunity based off of these concerns and changes in our economy. BlackRock says that the United States stock market is still the place to be invested, not the bond market. When it comes to investing in bonds, this is where BlackRock says that the European bond market is better than the United States bond market. Persistent United States deficits and sticky inflation lead us to prefer European bonds over the United States. A bond, if you're not familiar, is a loan. And more specifically, BlackRock is talking about lending money to a government. For example, you can lend money to the United States government. This is called a treasury. A treasury bond is a loan to the United States government, and you can also loan money to European governments. And this is where BlackRock is saying, because of the concerns about the national debt here in the United States, where we have over 36 trillion dollars of national debt, because of the concerns about inflation, because of the concerns about money printing, that's why BlackRock says, instead of lending money to the United States, they would rather lend money to European countries, because they feel that that's a stable place to continue generating income, because the income comes from the interest that you get from lending your money. Now, the reason why BlackRock is saying this ultimately comes down to inflation, which is the value of the dollar falling. And part of this has to do with the fact that we have this big national debt. Another part of this has to do with the fact that the new economic policies that we're seeing could be increasing our national debt by trillions of dollars over the coming years, which could make the inflation problem worse. At this point, you might be wondering, well, if BlackRock says that our dollar has some concerns because of inflation, why would they want to invest in United States stocks? Why not European stocks? And this is where you have to understand how inflation plays a part in our economy, because what we've seen is that, in general, inflation benefits asset prices. I'll show you what I mean. Here's what's happened over the last five years. We have seen inflation come in at around 24 percent between 2020 to now. Over those same five years, we've seen wages grow by around 20 percent, which means for the average American, the prices of things have gone up faster than your incomes, while at the same time, stocks over those last five years have gone up by more than 95 percent. Inflation generally benefits investors, because when you have that inflation, what's happening? Well, generally, that means that there's more dollars out there. The prices of things are going up, so Chipotle's selling their stuff for more money. Walmart's selling their stuff for more money. Target's selling their stuff for more money. Amazon's selling their stuff for more money. You get the idea. So consumers, regular people, Americans have to go and spend more dollars at these stores. When these stores, these businesses are making more dollars, where does that benefit? Well, the employees might get a little bit of a raise, but what we've seen is that wages generally have not kept up with inflation. So if these businesses are making more dollars, and these more dollars are not going to the employees, who are they going to? They're going into the hands of the investors, the owners. And who are those investors? Well, if it's a publicly traded company, if it's a company in the stock market, it is people like you and me, people that are buying shares of these companies on the stock market. And what we've seen, not just over the last five years, but over the last number of decades, is that the stock market has outpaced inflation, which means when this type of inflation happens, when we see this growth in national debt that's bad for the average person, it's good for investors. That's why this financial education matters, and that's why Blackhawk is saying, well, they still want to be invested into the United States stock market, and when it comes to bonds, lending money, they're preferring the European market. But not all stocks are made equal, and this is where BlackRock says they want to get granular. BlackRock says they like sectors benefiting from the AI build-out, such as utilities, that are seeing many more mentions of AI on earnings calls than the S&P 500 average. Every company that trades on the stock market has to have a public earnings statement, a public earnings call every quarter, meaning every three months. And what BlackRock is saying is they're listening to these earnings calls, and they're looking at the average of how many times these companies, especially the largest 500 companies, are mentioning the word AI on these earnings calls. Then they're looking more specifically into the companies that are talking about AI more than the average, and that's where they say they're seeing the opportunity. It's the companies that are in the growth industries that are talking about AI more than the average. And then something that I found very interesting is BlackRock kind of ended the report by saying instead of investing in United States treasuries, meaning lending money to the United States government, they said that they prefer owning physical gold because they say that that has more potential upside. Take that for what it's worth. I found that to be interesting. But this is where now BlackRock is saying, yes, they have some concerns in the economy. Some of these concerns, they say, might be overblown, especially in the short term. Yes, they might be long-term concerns, but this is where BlackRock says they want to continue investing their money, especially in stocks, because they believe that this inflation and these policies are going to continue to benefit stocks, at least in the short term. And that's where they're specifically looking for companies that are talking about AI more than the average. Now, this is where I want to hear from you. Do you agree with BlackRock? Do you disagree with BlackRock? Let me know down in the comments. And again, if you want some additional resources, you can check out Market Briefs, which is my free investment newsletter. And I have that link for you down in the description. President Trump signed the one big, beautiful bill act into law. This big bill will bring some big changes to our economy, starting with some big tax breaks, to big funding for certain things like more deportations. And the reason why you want to pay attention to this bill is because it goes into effect retroactively. It goes into effect January 1, 2025.