Live Q&A: Insights & Profit-Taking Strategies

Hey, everybody, welcome to Sunday, some strange stuff happening out there a little something on my face, probably coffee, a little bit of volatility in the markets. But we're going to talk about today, all the stuff that has been on your mind all week. We're going to talk about mainly about what is coming AGI, how you find alpha in the era of AGI bots, profit taking perpetual bids, ETH Bitcoin future should I hold should I sell ETF odds? Should I hold should I sell stakings future? Is altcoin season dead? Is this just going to be one big long Bitcoin season? We're going to talk about disruption, Tesla strategy, and also some some scans to a question regarding life insurance. Oh my god, that's so interesting. And tether, Fed, no bid, Treasury bonds, a lot to do. So let's go. Thank you for coming. And this is not financial advice, just a guy on the internet. And this took a long time to put this together. So I hope you enjoy it. All the questions come from the team on Patreon. Big shout out to everybody behind me to make this possible every single day. First question is when Bitcoin, excuse me, and Bitcoin breaks beyond all time highs to peak for this cycle. Will it ever drop like prior cycles during the crypto winter? It seems like Bitcoin may not, as the institutions, ETFs, pension funds, etc, will not have a massive sell off like the casual individual investor. In short, is this the last time we can get Bitcoin at this level? After it passes 100k? Will it ever come back? This is from I man. And this is something I've been talking about and trying to figure out for the longest time. And we have models to be able to tell if we're going to have a big retracement or not. And but let's talk about some stuff first. Plan B did come out yesterday. And he said last chance to buy Bitcoin below $70,000. Well, that didn't happen because now we're at 66k as we speak, literally Bitcoin just fell $1,000. And there's a lot of nerd rattles about what's happening in Iran right now. But anyway, I'm not going to touch on that. I made a Patreon post about that earlier this morning. But that is the reason for this drop right now. And the question is, what will happen in the future? We know plan B's point of view, I do think returns will be diminished, drawdowns will be diminished. And why? Well, there is that perpetual bid. I covered the IA multiplier yesterday. And a lot of people still have questions about it. But basically, if we look at the flows into Bitcoin for the week, the price went up 6300 bucks 10.5% return, because of this exact multiplier and the multiplier right now when I backed into it was 105 up from 21 and 2021. That's big. Now, if the money is continually flowing in, if people are not selling, that changes the game drastically. Now, I'm not the only one to think this as well. This came out from Edelman as well. I did talk about this earlier in the week. And Edelman's prediction is $420,000 if 1% of global assets are allocated to it, that would drive the market up to 7.4 trillion. Oh, we'll also talk later about the crypto market cap and why I believe it's BS, but we'll get into that later. And if you model this out, and again, I'm going real fast here because we have a lot of ground to cover. You can see I actually backed into that $420,000 plus the existing price 66k takes us up to $486,000. That is absolutely feasible, but that is only assuming 1% of 30 trillion, not 1% of all assets, which is a big difference. And the other factor is if we look at here, the old 56 multiplier, not the 21 not the 105 we have today, but 56 we get to a million dollar Bitcoin, which is completely bonkers. But again, people like Jack Dorsey said that we will definitely be at a million dollars by the year 2030. And that is possible. But let's go back to another piece of history, Ironman, which supports your point. And that is the post gold ETF launch. We had an eight year bull market big, the gold GLD ETF went up for eight straight years, even it rode through global financial crises, etc. The blue trend did not change. It was up and up only for eight years straight. The question is, can that happen to Bitcoin? Well, it's harder and scarcer than gold. And everybody's getting the attention right now from the 13 F filings. And I begin to think this could be possible. Maybe maybe plan B could be right last chance to buy under 70k. We'll see. Either way, it's a very scarce hard asset 5 million coins are lost. And that's why I'm very excited about the future. So hold tight. But we'll know, we'll be able to tell what happens. And hopefully be able to predict downturns. We did have that one from 73k down to sub 60k, which took a lot of people by surprise. That was a 21% downturn. But anyway, let's go hope my eye holds together for this show next is from revelator. 20% of my portfolio is Ethereum. I have been holding on to it for a few years now. Would it be wise to switch it all over to Bitcoin now and become a whole coiner or move it over to solve 10% of portfolio or just hold it and wait for a pump. So this is an interesting one. As you know, I got out of the majority of my ETH last year, moved into faster horses. And I actually had a little bit left. It was a 0.5% allocation of my portfolio. I got rid of the last of that last week. So I gave up the ghost. Part of the reason why I gave up the ghost was this, but there is a bright lining towards the end. The ETH Bitcoin chart, you can see here, we broke through the ETH Bitcoin support line, which I had modeled out at 0.05 for a long time ago. And it smashed through that it did rebound above it. But right now it is just breaking down hard. And there is no sign of this trend turning after broke support. That is pretty scary from a TA perspective. However, we know strange things can happen. Now my whole thing is, I like faster horses, it doesn't mean I don't like an asset. Okay, so if I choose to sell something to move somewhere else, it's because I want to make more. But there's nothing wrong with holding on to something that maybe is safer. And I do go out a little bit more on the risk spectrum. So I want that to be perfectly clear. But let's look at the Bitcoin ETH chart. And again, over the last 12 months, Bitcoin has smoked ETH by 60%. Not good. Solana has smoked ETH by 500%. Definitely not good. And that's that was my choice to pick that position over Ethereum or Bitcoin. I still have of course Bitcoin as well. But that is kind of where we are. Now there is that silver lining and this is this, the ETH ETF hope. So I pulled together kind of a list of where we are around what could happen because if the ETH ETF is approved, that will really help the price section for Ethereum. No doubt about that, everybody. Thank you, Jeff Hammer for coming. And thank you as well to the mods in chat T&D, Tesla and Cade, etc. But here, this is all the data points that I found and from Bloomberg, an analyst Eric Balchunas estimated originally 70% chance of it being approved by May 2024. But now he's reduced that to 30% chance. Standard and Chartered. Yeah, take their stuff with a grain of salt. They believe it will be approved by May 23. That is four days away. Thank you, Stephen Weston for coming. And JP Morgan believe the odds of the approval in May is only 50%. No more. Coinbase say it's a question of when not if. So if you add all this together, the chances of an ETF approval are still there. It will happen. We just don't know when. And when that does happen, we'll see how many flows come in. I do think Bitcoin is a far more popular asset. But ETH does have the wild card of staking to make it very valuable. We'll talk more about staking as well in a second just ties into this. This is the question regarding staking from Nathan Daniel. And I forgot to say as well, Revelator, I can't tell you what to do. I just share what I do. So take all these data points and make your own decision of is it worth waiting for that ETH bump, or jump on to something that may be cheaper and run faster. And that's kind of how I play build out that EV model. Okay, related to that is staking and staking is super important in this space. This from Nathan Daniel. How do you see the future of staking in crypto? Do you think governments will be okay with it being a legitimate passive income source? Well, that is interesting. So I'm going to break this down to three little chapters. First of all, the pros, the cons and why the SEC hate it, which is most important. So first of all, proof of stake staking, I believe is very powerful. And I also believe there will be, you know, most projects now are proof of stake. But and also most people want passive income. But there is, of course, that regulatory landscape, which we get to in a minute. However, proof of stake is environmentally friendly. And the way in which staking works basically help increase decentralization and security in the network. It also benefits the holders and attracts more investors to the space. The staking rewards and things like Solana have been absolutely mind blowing, especially if your cost base is low. Now, the challenges of staking are very clear. First of all, taxation, how do you tax it? How do you tax it in your jurisdiction? Is it taxed as a capital gain, a short term capital gain? Do you have to pay taxes on it as you earn it? It's really, really complex. Also, regulations, a lot of regulators may see staking rewards as a security subjecting them to security regulations, which would mean it's almost impossible to handle the actual requirements and turn every single crypto that has staking rewards into a security, which would be very onerous for those projects, and we'll send them all offshore. Also, per the governments, etc. There's always AML, which is anti money laundering, and KYC, newer customer regulations, because staking platforms may be required to implement that AML and KYC procedure to prevent illicit activities, and of course, comply with local regulations. So this kind of like the good and the bad staking is good. If they're use it, it can be quite impactful. But why? Oh, by the way, I didn't mention on Solana, when you have say you say you have an average cost base of $20 and you stake for a year at 8% approximately, your cost basis comes down, which is super interesting, too. Anyway, why does the SEC hate staking? Well, they see it as security issuance. They also believe that under the Howey test, it means that staking rewards are classified as securities. And we are still not clear from the SEC what the status is around Ethereum and the impact that will have on staking rewards as well. And the SEC needs risk disclosure, etc. For all the stuff which is very onerous for tokens to handle. And centralization of staking power is a huge concern. If you have two or three players that have all of the stake, think Lido, etc. It can be a bit of a problem. And they are the concern. So that's kind of staking world. What will happen? I don't know. I think it'll you know, if the government's try to ban anything, it'll just push it offshore, people find a way to get access to it. It's too important, too valuable to just dismiss and ban. And you know what happens when governments try to ban stuff. It makes them even more popular. Anyway, we'll talk more about that later. Do you still hold render on the ETH network? Or did you convert it to render on the soul network from keys? Very, very clever, astute question. And full disclosure, I hold render, I get in at a very low cost basis. The position is nearly 10x already. And my render is still sitting there on Coinbase. And it is the ERC 20 flavor. And the reason I haven't converted it is first of all, I just let it sit there on Coinbase. And I'm afraid to convert it in case I incur taxes. So but I will just sell out of the position when the time is right when we get to the top. And then I'll be gone. And that's talking more about profit taking later as well in the show. But this is so important here. The laws are unclear, as we just previously discussed, if I flipped this ERC 20, render into a soul render, I probably incur taxes. And I do not want short term capital gains taxes, because that makes it very expensive for me. So hold on till I get to I think I should be at a year now as well. I think I got into rendered April last year. About a buck. I don't remember exactly. Don't quote me on that. But very close to $1. And we'll see where it goes. I think right now, render, let's check out the real time price too, because you need to find out where it's at. Render $10 and 25 cents. So yeah, it's 10 x. And therefore, I have to wait and every investment decision I make is very much dependent on taxes. So that's why I try to hold out for long term capital gains taxes as much as possible for the majority of positions. So I still have render in ERC flavor sitting on my brokerage account, my centralized exchange, I should say. Next question, Matthew M. Is it too early to take profits on crypto investments that have done a forex or more? I got into Pith at 27 cents. Well done. And I'm regretting not taking profits when it was over $1. So yeah, that happened to me too. And again, Pith has this massive unlock coming. It's making people very nervous. I too got in a low price when I did my should I buy Pith video, the project is excellent. All right, really, really good. But when you have 147% unlock, and everybody's unstaking like mad, you know, there could be nervousness and there could be some cell pressure. And we'll be there when we get to the bottom. But let's look at Pith on the ATR chart, because this is a very telling situation of exactly what you went through. So we had multiple buy signals, you can see I pointed in there the little green triangles hidden under the trend chart, but bye bye. And then at the very top, we've missed the top by like, like a couple of cents, sell signal number one, and then sell signal number two. And there has been no more buy signals since then. That is concerning. So for me, I wait for the trend to turn before I think about getting back in and for my buy signal to flash. And that has not happened. But what you can see here as well, you know, you see something going from 27 cents up to a buck 50. And then all the way down now to 36 cents again, it can be very, very painful. And that's why a couple of things that I always preach when it comes to profit taking is as follows methods and logic as well. So first of all, it's never ever too early to take profits. Don't ever think that and don't try time the very top of the bull market. And when your investments have grown significantly, literally takes take your definitely take your initial capital off the table. So if you buy something at $10 and it goes to 100 first thing you do, or even it goes to 50 take that initial capital table, park it somewhere safer. As you go forward. Number one, that way you can play with the tables money. And I like to go full risk on with house money. I did that when I used to play craps at casinos. And I do not preach any type of gambling, it's very bad. But at the same time, I had a system that worked very well, because I was extremely conservative until I made money. Once I made money, I changed my strategy entirely and went full on risk. Now, rotate into assets that are undervalued. So for example, we had a dip of Solana down to $114. Recently, that would have been a good time to rotate out of Pith into Solana, wait for Solana to rebound and then reallocate the more valuable Solana into the cheaper under underlying asset. And also watch the tokenomics, watch for these unlocks. And think long term, think long term perspective, Pith will do very well this bull run, but it has to get through this probably sell pressure storm from the unlock. And also the most important thing in investing. And when you go from again, 27 cents to a buck 50. And all the way down again, you can see the perfect rule explained there. It's not what you make, it's what you keep. And people kick themselves a lot because of this. Now, we do have multiple methodologies and models as well. One thing I just want to show you here is an example of one asset Bitcoin and profit taking and layer in layer out and we are refining a model for this, which will be a function of not only rotation assets you can rotate into, but also profit taking optimization based on cost base and based on asset and based on the Lilo model. So the key thing here from this is just a crude illustration. Imagine you're in Bitcoin, your cost basis $20,000, you got six layers based on the Lilo model layer six, seven, eight, nine, 10, which start at 55k. Layer seven is 71 610, which coincidentally would have hit that layer and sold some layer eight, nine, 10 layer 10 goes up to $141,000. If what's incredible about this, if you sell 10% of your bag all the way up in these layers, okay, and you look at what you've taken off the table, plus your balance in Bitcoin, literally, you're only leaving 11 or 12% on the table. So that is compared to you layering out all the way up versus you holding till the very bitter end and we go to 142k. So the point here of this is, yes, take profits. And don't feel like you're leaving a lot of money on the table, because the reality is, you're only leaving 10%, maybe 12 13% on the table, we are building something far more scientific and sophisticated based on people's needs. And that's been my entire focus for the last few months. And it has to be ready for the end of this bull. So stay tuned everybody to this channel for updates on that. Now, air love hope, is it possible that this that in this cycle, regardless if the crypto market cap hits six or $10 trillion, Bitcoin will finish with 90% dominance without having any significant old coin season. So I like the way you're thinking. And those targets are actually kind of interesting because my sandbag CMC is 5 trillion. Raul Paul is 10 to 15 trillion. So six to 10. I like what you're thinking. That's a good way to think as we go forward. Let's break down. First of all, why I believe the whole CMC is BS. That's why I don't look a lot of dominance, because it's based on the CMC. So why I believe the crypto market cap is complete BS, because you have a whole bunch of stuff like with Bitcoin, you can calculate realized value. And we've covered this many, many times and how important that is. But with many cryptos out there, there are some of them have very, very low trading volumes, some have very illiquid markets, some trade, I actually did an analysis this morning of calculating the actual trading volume in a 24 hour basis based on market cap. So many of these coins have no trading volume, like none. And some of them are very big. And some of them are like half a percent or lower, which shows you they're illiquid and it's just fake token inflation that's out there. Now the other thing as well, you can have teams and investor allocations, they contribute to the market cap despite no trading. So imagine, imagine I am PRX token, pretend they issue billion tokens every month or two or three months like clockwork. All right, they have 52 billion tokens in escrow. And they drop a billion all the time. They've been doing this for eight years does do all those tokens that they drop a billion tokens say it's trading at 55 cents. Is there somebody actually trading cash for that? Or is it just fake made up internet money? I think you know the answer to that. I won't even answer it. And also you got inactive tokens that increase circulating supply and market cap artificially. Then you got volume price manipulation as well. You got watch trading and a ton more you got pre mined, locked tokens, unlocked tokens, like a million different reasons why it's not a very reliable thing. In fact, if you look at the total crypto market today, which doesn't even include the 20,000 meme coins that are being created every single day, too. It's probably two thirds is hot air, maybe three quarters when you look at it right now. So anyway, that's the CMC why I think it's BS. Now will we get to 90% Bitcoin dominance. And I think that's impossible for the following reasons. One, this time around this bull market, old coins are far more mature. They have true use cases, true adoption, they make true amounts of money. It's kind of like, it's like the dot com era in 1999. It took three, four or five years before these companies start returning a profit and showing true value. That exact three, four or five years is where we are now versus the last bull run. The projects are better, more solid, better tokenomics. There's still 98% scams out there, but the one or 2% of projects are actually really good with real world use cases. The stablecoin market cap as well, is far higher and growing, you have tether issuing a billion dollars every few days, you got memes sucking up a large part of that. And the interesting thing as well about psychology in crypto, investors always seek higher returns and old coins. Well, as we showed before, there is higher returns in them if you pick the right one, otherwise, you'll just shrivel up and die. And also Ethereum, despite being weak, the Ethereum dominance is still 16%. By the way, it was 19%. And we're beginning to see a big drain out of ETH into other assets, newer, faster, better chains, which is also my thesis because that's the way the world works. And you have higher risk tolerance and bull markets. So people get cocky when they make some money in Bitcoin is like, okay, all right, I made 100 grand, let's go YOLO this into some higher risk assets. And that means the old coins will always do well, because there's always DJs out there who will want that higher risk play for the higher return. And finally, we have new roles that are out there now for crypto, AI, compute, deep in projects, real world assets, gaming, telco communications, these things are changing the world, and they're real, and they're profitable, and they're successful projects. And therefore, we're never going to get that. And I think I think we've reached probably peak Bitcoin dominance now that 53, 54, 55%. From here on in, it goes down. Now. Also, one other thing to know as well, folks know, alts outperform Bitcoin, despite extreme volatility. This is again, this is the sole Bitcoin chart on the ATR model. And the red shadow there, just to remind you all, that's the bear market that will always turn up if whatever asset you're looking at, that red curtain is the bear, we are still in the bull, it's very important to know where we stand. And what happens before the bear market begins, but solvers Bitcoin is 4000% better. But it's been a super volatile ride. And this is why you buy hard in layers. When oversold assets that have true value get really, really cheap. That's when you buy hard. So hope that helps. Now, we're going to switch gears, we're going to talk about pivot to the whole world ton of AI questions and how real is this stuff? And how are we going to survive? Well, first of all, this from Bulbo Baggins, AI learned chess, Starcraft and go by countless games against itself and smoked humans. What happens in five years when we have AGI trained to crunch all historic market and web data? Where do we find alpha then only the paranoid survive? Well, you're speaking just like me. Maybe you are my brother separated at birth. I don't know. But you are dead, right. So let's look at what's happening in the world. Now, I have been very concerned since 2022. I made a video I was like, this is probably our last big bull run to make absolute excess market returns. So make account because I don't know what the future holds. But from 2025 2026 onwards, it'll be very different, different place, a lot of crazy stuff is happening with the way governments are running economies, the way money printing is happening, debasement UBI resets social programs, AI markets, but these are some of the things that I see that threaten our excess returns. And that's why I've always had the sense of urgency now for the last year and a half plus two years. First of all, it will be far harder to make excess returns than the easy stuff that we do now. And the model building we do now, etc. And I am well aware of that. AGI will help markets become much more efficient in real time by processing and incorporating all information into prices. And that will destroy a huge part of my life, which was arbitrage and pull away, basically are away all those opportunities, or should I say AI away all those or are going to try say this again, it's a word blah, gamble thing. AI will arbor away all our opportunities fast. And the things like micro strategy, trade, etc. will go away because the machines will know real time, the machines will be able to research data and give people trading strategies. Now, markets will also become 24 seven. We're already hearing discoveries about this because the fact that markets aren't 24 seven is almost criminal, if you ask me, because a lot of manipulation happens before the market opens, and after the market closes, and AGI will be able to identify new patterns, new correlations, new strategies that humans have not discovered. And that will help those that have those models do best. Also, AGI will be able to adapt and adapt to market conditions and prey on retail who typically will be late and slow and get abused just like in many markets today, but at a much worse pace. And there'll be that inequality as well because those that have access to powerful AGI systems will be able to create an uneven playing field favoring those institutions and those people with the AI edge and hedge funds with the resources to keep developing and deploying such systems and capital to so you're dead right the future is looking bleak for this opportunity. So I wish I could say more but I have been worried about this. I'm hoping it won't be as bad as I expect. But again, as I said, a few months ago, AI will develop, it'll become 1600 times better over the next two to three years than it is than it was six months ago. And that will open up a huge amount of opportunity for this type of marketplace. And I guarantee you there are 1000s of firms, if not 10s of 1000s or 100s of 1000s that are doing that right now. We are even working on that we have a team focusing on AI very carefully to see how we can embrace it, leverage it help revise trading strategies, and modify them for future market changes. So market scary. Again, enjoy this time because things will get harder as we go forward. And I'm sorry to as well. So that bucket of water on people. But again, it's important to be prepared as we go forward. Next question, which ties into AI as well. Jasper, what is your perspective on the choices Tesla has made to cut costs to ensure the most important projects get funded? Do these choices impact the growth and valuation model? Brilliant question. So I tried to think about the easy way to convey kind of how this works. So let me take you on a little story. But I have a better one. So this is Elon, he did talk about kind of the Tesla FSD Robotaxi pivot, which is akin to Netflix transition from mailing a DVD in the post to streaming online. And that pivot is like selling cars to mailing DVDs to higher margin, autonomous ride sharing, versus streaming. So think of that. Now with the streaming, you get things like global reach and scalability and very high margins, and recurring revenue and profitability. So this is called the whole easy way to frame it, but I'm gonna do a little bit different. And this comes from a conversation I recently had with a restaurant owner, and they were struggling. They were not making enough money to cover bills. They weren't able to pay them rent, they had to cut staff. It was an ugly situation. So I sat with them and had an interesting conversation. And this is basically how it ran. Alright, so we had the restaurant before kind of high end meat and fish, dishes, vegetarian dishes, whatever you want, average price per ticket $50 a menu item. And the restaurant was all about building really, really good quality food, high quality ingredients, meat, fish, whatever else, and about 25 different ingredients and fresh vegetables. Time to make each meal is about 25 minutes margin was about 5%, which is $2.50 for every $50 dish they sold. And they had to make up profits and selling wine and desserts. That was the only way out. The total address will market as well every night was 300 because they could only sell six dishes. And the net profit per night was $15. Obviously, this is not sustainable. So I said, Why don't you focus on keeping the quality but pivoting to extremely high margin food. And for anybody who knows the highest margin things in the world are things like pizza, sometimes sushi, depending on the place, but often not, because to get good sushi, you have to spend a lot on good ingredients. So that doesn't really work. tacos sometimes works too. So pivot the business to cheaper dishes at very high margin. So pizza business $18 a pizza, the cost of ingredients two bucks 50, not 4750. Time to make is eight minutes. Margin is extremely high 1550 a pizza, and the total address will market per night is that would nearly cover the rent from one night and profit per night 1240. Okay, so I know it's really weird. But like making a car is like making a high end. I end meal and making pizza is like, you know, FSD robot taxi. So super crude. Don't laugh at me too much, but I'm trying to get this part. So let's talk about the money from this and why Tesla are pivoting. So basically, they see all these Chinese car manufacturers spinning out cars, they may be crappy quality, they may have no FSD technology. But you know what people sometimes just want to have a car to get from A to B and they don't mind driving themselves. So historically, they make a car $40,000 margin 15% 6000 profit per sale one time only because Tesla's don't require service. There's no service revenue business warranty business like you get with other car makers like ice cars, which are petrol gasoline cars. Now the FSD in a car is, you know, say 100 bucks a month, say the customer buys it for three years. That's 36%. But the margin is 95%. Okay, the margin on the vehicle sale for Tesla is 15%. So you can make a lot more money with a lot more marketing FSD. But where it gets really crazy is a robo taxi cost to make the car is 25,000. The margin is 15%. And each robo taxi can make $100,000 a year which we covered I think last week in a video I covered this in great detail how we get to that number. So basically, if you make a car for 25,000 that makes 100 grand a year and you get 50% profit. It's infinite return on investment. Okay, it's way better than pizza. And that's exactly what Elon is doing. Now, I do have this robo taxi model that I did with Stern basher, and we get to a $19,000 per share valuation if they succeed if they execute by the year 2034. All right, Tesla's trading about 170 bucks right now. It's hard to think go to 19,000. But that is just the math of how this blows up. Let me explain as well how this happens because I will talk a bit about robots and why they are so special too. So again, it's very hard to understand this exponentiality of this opportunity. But I hope I tried with my pizza example. That's why Elon sees the writing on the wall, he can pivot this business focus completely on AI, baby AGI robots, which includes self driving cars, which include optimists. And the next question dovetails perfectly into this. Let me see this from Littlefoot 92. And by the way, I know those people are here only for crypto. But you have to listen to what's coming. All right, because this is going to change everything. And forewarned is I always get these things wrong, forewarned is prepared or something like that. Anyway, help me with my colloquialisms. Since you said that Elon's timelines are usually off, do you think optimists will actually be in production by 2025? Or should we expect a slight delay? Brilliant question. So optimists is alive. It's coming. And let me update you on where we are. First of all, Elon Musk said optimists will be amazing. He said that three, three or four days ago. Second, two things matter for a robot. And yes, I know, everybody's yoloing into building robots right now. But remember, this is going to be so so important. It's like everybody's making EVs. Who makes the best one? Tesla. How are the competition dead competition also lose money in every even make competition doesn't have any FSD. That's the difference between Tesla and all the other robot manufacturers, which I know 60% of them will come from China to just like the majority of the EV makers. Now there's two things that matter for about one is the brain and to the hands. optimists have both I will spend a little minute talking about the hands and why optimists is special as well. So first of all, the new optimist hand Elon said this will have 22 degrees of freedom. Currently, it's at 11. That means this hand is pretty much able potentially to do anything, maybe surgery, maybe playing the violin, maybe fixing my reverse osmosis filter that I have to do this afternoon with these little hands. Maybe I'll have to do it later. Also, the new design is focusing much more on more capability in the upper arm, which will enable much more degrees of freedom to and they are also integrating all degrees of freedom into the whole body, the knees, the torso, the hips, the neck, everything. So it'll become extremely human like, and they're building it in human form because the world is built around the human form, built by humans. Coincidentally, it'll be a while probably another 10 years before the world will look very different. Because it'll be optimized because certain things that a human perhaps doesn't do that an optimist will do better if it has a different form factor. Also, Tesla says the hand is where the mind meets the world. So important the hand is the business end. And that's why Tesla are so obsessed with getting the hand and the fingers and the sensors, right. And remember, Tesla FSD runs and cars is the neural net, which is the brain. My car learns the roads I drive on, it gets better at driving these roads every single day. And then what it learns it communicates to other cars. It's just completely mind blowing to think about. So will it work and do productive work in 2025? Well, this is from March 2024. Optimus is already ready for field tests. And it is doing actual work in actual Tesla factories. Now, I personally believe I don't know if it's a good idea for Tesla to sell these things. They should just use them to scale up their business at a rate which is crazy, which I'll talk about in a second. But in terms of scaling Optimus, here's a couple of factors of some smoke away, which Elon Musk actually ratified, he said not far off these numbers, there'll be a 10x increase in the number of these puppies every single year. This year, they probably make 1000 or close to it. Next year, 10 times that 10 times that 10 times that. And again, there will be millions of these in no time. Remember, the bots can make the bots, just like the Tesla gigafactories, or the machine that makes the machine. That's the whole thing. These things are built for scale. And also with the best capability out there. And one other factor, it's actually interesting. Tesla's price on the stock market today doesn't take into account any FSD, any robots, the megapack business isn't even priced in. They're just valuing it like a car, carmaker, it's kind of ridiculous. This is the it's like the $8 Sol opportunity for us. Fingers crossed the comp plan gets approved. Now, there is a bit of secret sauce here. This is a secret unlock that people really need to understand. This is the exponentiality. For the first time in the history of the world, we have multiple s curves hitting at the same time. All right, and as an Elon Musk says, there's no real limit. Because an economy is productivity per capita times capita, the intelligent humanoid robot uncorks capita. Okay, productivity will go to the moon, because there'll be no limit on capita, which is a very scary prospect for capital like me and you out there. But again, that's why it's important to be ready for this. Crazy stuff is coming down the pike. The world will look very different in 2026. That we can be sure of. So be ready for that. So my take is, yes, these things will be operating more at scale in 2025 and already operating now doing simple tasks, but they'll get a lot better real fast. Now, this is a bond question. That's a cool interest. Okay, the first first insurance questions I think I remember maybe in a long time, at least. And a bond question. This from quit my day job. Whoo, well done. If nobody is buying us bonds, doesn't the Fed need to keep interest rates high in order to make bonds attractive? Don't they need to sell more bonds in order to print more fiat? Speaking of interest rates, by the way, I published a piece in Patreon that Tesla was offering 0.99% interest up until the end of this month on Model Ys. I know for a fact, at least 15 people bought that car within 24 hours in the community 15 ratified purchases of a Model Y and I'm just one person. This is the impact that lower interest rates has free money 0.99% for five, six, seven years, whatever it is, is a bonkers deal. But this is kind of what you're talking about, but in reverse. So first of all, let's talk about who is buying the bonds because a lot of people sometimes aren't aware of this. And when it comes to buying us bonds, it's not just you and me got a whole crew involved. You got people like us scooping up bonds directly through IRAs 401ks personal accounts in the form of money market accounts. That's the big yellow zone there. So if people can get 4.5% 5% on money market, that money market manager actually is the one buying the bonds generating your return. That's the yellow chunk. And by the way, the $6.2 trillion of cash on the sidelines, ready to be deployed. That's where much of it goes. Now, then there are the indirect buyers. You've got US banks, wrapping the green zone, foreign central banks like the Bank of Japan, Bank of China, along with other international buyers. That's the kind of brown zone here. And they've kind of walked away, they don't want to buy this stuff anymore. But hold up. What's the mysterious blue area at the bottom? Any guesses? Yep, bam, you nailed it. This is the Federal Reserve itself. They are buying their own bonds. So well, my friends, that's the money printer right there. So what will happen, the more the Fed has to jack rates to sell these bonds, the more they shoot themselves on the foot means the more they have to issue more bonds. This is the whole death debt spiral that we're in. And we're not coming out of it, by the way. The only way out of it is absolute debasement, ton of money printing or reset. That's it. There are the three ways out. No ifs, ands or buts. And that blue stuff is going to increase. Because the international buyers are leaving Japanese, for example, they're buying their own stuff to try to prop up their own currency. So that's who's buying a second of all, going no bid. This is the really scary thing. This from Craig Shapiro. Dealers had to step up in a big way for that 4 million t bill auction. And I don't know exactly. 4 billion wasn't 4 million. There's a $4 billion auction 52.3% to primary dealers is the highest amount in a year. Back to debt ceiling debacle last last May, and I know I said I say debacle wrong, but I don't know. indirects only took 38.7%, which is the lowest ever. Now let's break this down. What does this garble mean? So short dated four month US Treasury bonds worth $4 billion were offered for sale. The auction failed miserably, meaning that there wasn't enough demand from buyers and the primary dealers. They're the banks that are required to bid on the US Treasury auctions were forced to buy 52.3% of the bonds, which is a very high percentage. It means there was no other buyers other than the people that were forced to buy had to buy. And they typically never hold this much. And the indirect bidders, the foreign central banks mutual funds only bought 38.7% of the bonds, which is a record low. This shows the lack of interest from these important buyers. Now remember, the US Treasury market is becoming more dysfunctional by the day, which means it's not functioning smoothly. And there are issues with buying and selling these bonds. And remember, there's over 400 global fixed income markets, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, etc. global markets, and they use the Treasury bond as a benchmark for pricing. And that's the risk free rate. And that is struggling. And that's why this whole market is a house of cards and it could break down. Let me explain why again, in a simpler graphic. The question is, would you extend credit to this household? Ask yourself that. This is the US government. If America was a household, they make about 46,000 a year. They spend about 65,000 a year. Their interest on debt is 20,000 a year going higher very fast. And they owe $345,000. If you give money to this household, you're not getting it back. It's gone. It's gone. And that's why people are concerned about buying bonds. This is why it's such a perfect time for things like Bitcoin. And we saw that as well. So far year to date. Bitcoin, the black hole is in play. So brilliant question. I hope that answered your issue. And yes, the Treasury market is in a bit of a state and it's going to get worse as we go on to but they can't jack the rates more than they do now. More questions about the government. If the US government wants to kill crypto, why not go after USDT Tether from Mr. 2J? Great question. I'll answer this very simply. First of all, it's offshore, they can't kill it. Tether is the top buyer of US Treasuries or a top buyer. Tether and the dollar have a symbiotic relationship, because they both kind of need each other. And the tether also helps dollar dominance on the world stage. And tether is the highest traded crypto in the world. At 43.63% of the market cap is the daily volume. All right. market cap is $114 billion and the daily volume is $50 billion. This thing is very well traded. US needs it. And I shouldn't kill what actually helps it. So that's a weird symbiotic relationship. You can even consider Treasuries being a parasite on the back of tether. And that's why you can't kill crypto. And I hope that helps. Now final question. Interesting one too from let me see T Brogan. Curious as to your thoughts on term life insurance policies. I currently have one from before I discovered invest answers and I'm starting to think I might be better off stacking Bitcoin for my loved ones. Instead of paying insurance premiums. Well, you've seen all my Bitcoin price projection models. So maybe let's break it down. So there are problems with term life insurance and whole life insurance and all insurance as well. But the term life problems are real simple. low payout rates statistics show there's a significant percentage of term life insurance that never pay out a penny. Because either the insured outlives the policy, or they cancel it before matures or they start pivoting into Bitcoin, who knows. And there's no cash value accumulation. It's just money goes into black holes like paying rent. Term life insurance does not calculate or accumulate cash value over time like whole life insurance. This means that if you outlive your term, the premiums you paid are gone. And also premiums increase all the time. There's no flexibility in this thing at all. And if a policy lapses, game over. It's gone. But there's another thing that's really interesting how it works. And typically, life insurance agents receive 60 to 80% of the premiums you pay in the first year, and there's about 10% after that, and smaller commissions in later years, and life insurance companies paid out $68 billion in 2022. And 51 billion was paid to agents. And as you know, if you know this channel, I say if it's shilled hard, it's a scam. Good stuff sells itself. Case in point, Tesla Model Y, no sales or marketing, no advertising, best car in the world. And it's a battery electric vehicle. Good stuff sells itself. If something is pushed on you by anybody on Twitter or YouTube or through a phone or at an office, it's probably a scam. So ignore it. All right. And best part of the week as well. From butternut squash, somebody tied this beautiful dog to the wild spirit wolf sanctuary, who we have sponsored before. And it was just abandoned now up for adoption. So hopefully somebody will pick her up. Her name is butternut squash, butternut squash, beautiful German shepherd, and not a wolf, by the way. And DCA is live tomorrow, 730 Pacific, hosted on CTO's channel. But actually, it's on every channel. So we're all hosting it. So you can watch it wherever you want. Mando will have it on Twitter, CTO will have it on CTO's channel. I'll have it on my channel. People wanted that they proposed it. And we are doing that as well. So that'll be a fun show tomorrow as well. And don't forget to hit the like I'm going to do some questions now. From the team live. Thank you all for coming. This is a big one. My goodness. 53 minutes. Over 5000 people watching. I appreciate appreciate each and every one of you. And this is hard. So let me go find the questions and thank you as well to the mods and chat for keeping us all safe from people who are scamming hard. rusty bot out there in Norway. Good to see you. Miles in Arizona. I think that's Arizona miles and AZ just got back from a week's vacation in Lake Tahoe. 12 hour trip each way. FSD version 12 did 99% of the driving. And it was remarkable. sold some Nvidia last week, and we'll be making my biggest purchase of Tesla this week since 2018. Amazing. And we've got a lot of people that, you know, if you do, we have a community member that has to commute 100 miles a day 50 miles each way. And they just availed of the 0.9% offer for the model Y. And that literally will save them a lot of stress. They already have a very stressful life. But taking that stress of having to drive yourself is, again, will help you live longer because stress is a killer. Doc intern, any news rumors about when microstrategy will be included in the QQQ and the S&P 500? And do you think that the upcoming inclusion into MCSI is already priced in? Can the nav multiple go to three or above? The least I can do is to treat you to some awesome homemade Texas barbecue if you ever come to Dallas. Thank you, Doc intern. I don't see the multiple going beyond two. I did watch a huge amount of MSCI purchases happen last week. So I think what happens before they have to allocate on May 31, I think it is in about 12 days. They stack a little bit, especially when it's cheap like now. So we're seeing that happen. I'm seeing a lot of good things in the charts. We have our own ARB calculator. And it's looking like we could be going back to all time highs on this because this also will be the perpetual bid, which will help Michael Saylor maybe issue more stock or get more bonds to buy more Bitcoin as Bitcoin goes up in value for somebody to buy the shares. Regarding when will be added to the S&P 500. I think that'll happen before the QQQ. And I know it's ranked number 300. Right now. It takes time, they have some accounting stuff to deal with. I thought maybe they made some accounting changes last right before last quarter's earnings. They didn't make them yet, which tells me maybe next quarter, it could happen. But we're not sure the S&P 500, by the way, denied Tesla coincidentally, for years. Because you know, maybe these organizations are corrupt. I'm not sure. But it's sometimes logical stuff doesn't happen. But I do understand as well, the S&P has some accounting requirements to give them comfort. And before they admit, because when you get admitted to the S&P 500, that is that perpetual bid. It's kind of like pension funds buying Bitcoin ETS right now. It's huge news. So really, really good thing. Thank you for the invite to Texas for barbecue. That sounds like fun. But Corn, thank you for coming as well. Steven on ps4, correct me, gold death, because being used on the daily EMA 50 and EMA 200. I think you mean death cross for gold. Do you feel like lower timeframes can be used short term trades with these two EMAs? So death crosses work only 55 to 60% of times and do not rely on them to trade on the daily gold. I do see a big sell trigger on gold as well. Let me just while I'm here. Let me pull it up and see if I can do that. Sometimes it's hard for me to juggle all these things. But I did see a gold sell trigger. I was I was trolling. Who was it? I think it was Peter Schiff yesterday. On a second. He was on the ATR big, big sell trigger. Let's see if I can pull it up here. pop it up and configure gold. I can't remember if I did but I remember it did pop up something. Yeah, gold had a sell trigger on the ATR model the first one since the beginning of the year. And exactly to 2400 bucks. So that could be it looks like it is a bit toppy. But again, Fiat is going to zero therefore gold will go up. But there are faster horses. And thank you for your super stickers. Well, Andy Glenn, Joe crypto katana, signaling 103 Jeff Hammer, Steven Westin, Forrest M. Bert Frank and a bottle of red and I think we may have just got I am Colt as well popped in there. Thank you, buddy. And everybody else. So that was a big show today. I hope you picked up a lot. We learned about how don't buy stuff that's sold hard. Bond market is in trouble. And everything else is going well. Be on the faster horse. Take profits. If you invest in something, and it does a forex take your initial capital off the table immediately. Play with the tables money. So if you lose you won't even feel bad. Thank you so much, everybody. Have a great weekend. Bye bye.