Rent is about to explode (Florida residents flocking to New York in droves)

Folks, I've been spending some time up here in New York and I gotta give you a report on what I'm seeing. There's some crazy stuff happening in the New York economy and housing market that I think you guys should start to know about. In particular, we are still seeing bidding wars in the housing market here in upstate New York. Unlike anything I've seen in the last several years, there seems to be a surge in migration up into states like New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New Jersey that's having a massive impact on the housing market. And the surge in migration, it's gonna impact you if you live in the South. You gotta pay attention to this data because we're seeing something called reverse migration now occur. And the first data point I wanna show you guys is the difference between inventory in Florida, the amount of homes for sale in Florida versus the entire Northeast US. So on this graph, we can see in Florida, there's 182,000 homes for sale, whereas in the Northeast US, there's only 85,000 homes for sale across nine states. So this means that the state of Florida has more than two times as much inventory for sale on the housing market right now as the entire Northeast US. And I think this is really interesting because a lot of you guys now know that prices in Florida are dropping. A lot of you guys now know that prices in Texas and Arizona are dropping, but I think a lot of you don't know that this is the start of a new structural trend that's going to see more and more people move to the Northeast and Midwest and leave the South. And there's multiple reasons for this trend now occurring. One of the biggest is the fact that the boom in migration was so big during the pandemic that it was never gonna last. In 2022, roughly 900,000 Americans moved into the South. That was a record. Now that's down to less than 500,000 in 2024. And I have a feeling when the 2025 figures come out, that migration is gonna plummet even more to one of the lowest levels we've seen in the last several decades. However, the other thing you gotta pay attention to is affordability. The affordability calculus on the US housing market has really changed regionally over the last five years. Five years ago, states in the South were truly affordable. It was very affordable to go to Florida or Texas or Tennessee to buy a house in 2020. You could literally sell your house here in upstate New York. I'm in a town called Valacia, New York right now. I'm gonna tell you more about it as this video goes on. You could sell your house here and you could go down there and you could buy maybe two or three houses with the money that you made from selling your house in New York. But now that's no longer the case. Now, many people in New York are selling their houses and trying to move to the South and they say, I can't afford it. I can't afford to buy a nice house in Tennessee. I can't afford to buy a nice house in Florida. But point number three is even more interesting, everyone. And I have a feeling some of you are gonna maybe not like the point I'm about to bring up. It's very controversial about why maybe Americans are now leaving Southern states and moving to the Northeast and Midwest. And that has to do with climate change. The idea is that Southern states like Florida and Arizona and now even California out West are becoming increasingly exposed to climate issues, maybe or maybe not caused by climate change. But it does seem like certain states in the South and in the West are experiencing more climate disasters over the last four or five years. So now what some people are doing who live in those states is they're moving to the Northeast and Midwest because they view these states as safe havens from climate change. In particular, where I am in upstate New York in Columbia County, I have met many people over the last two years at open houses who are from California, who are from Florida. And they say the reason they're here is because they've done their research and that this is an area in upstate New York that supposedly is going to do better if climate change worsens and there's global warming. And when I go to open houses here in upstate New York, I see 10 cars in the driveway. I see people making offers at the open houses. And I'm actually from this area originally. I was born here. So when I'm now seeing people show up from California and Florida here, who never showed up over the last 20 years, I'm starting to say something is changing a little bit in how Americans are moving, how people are moving. In particular, more liberal people tend to think climate change is a bigger deal and they are moving to the Northeast and Midwest. That is happening. And so for these reasons, you guys out there need to anchor your expectations of where the economy and housing market is heading over the next five years. The movement of people will be to the Northeast and Midwest. And we will see as a result, outperformance in the housing market here in the Northeast and Midwest. And we'll also see outperformance in economic growth. So we're gonna see the Northeast and Midwest do better. We're gonna see the Southern and Mountain West states do worse in terms of price appreciation, in terms of economic growth. Now, some of you who live in the South and Mountain West, you might be saying that sounds great because it's gonna mean that home prices are gonna drop thereby more. And that's something that will happen. Now, I know some of you still might be skeptical of what I'm saying because the conventional narrative is that states like New York are not attractive places to be, that everyone is leaving New York. That's the conventional narrative. And ultimately it was true, certainly during the pandemic, there was a mass exodus from New York. But I wanna show you some data now that proves my point about how people are moving back. And it's very local data to where I'm standing right now. So I'm in Valesha, New York, which is a town in Columbia County. It's about two hours North of New York City, 30 minutes South of Albany. Take a look at this, everyone. The days on market in this zip code right now is 19 days on market before a house is sold or delisted. Prior to the pandemic in this zip code, the days on market was 90 days. So we went from a very slow market prior to the pandemic to one of the fastest markets in America here. And actually, funny thing folks, the metro area in America that has the biggest housing shortage right now, can you guys guess the metro with a minimum population of 300,000 that has the biggest housing shortage? It's Albany, New York. Inventory is down 50% in Albany, New York from the long-term average. Now, many of you might not even know about Albany, New York. It's the state capital of New York. There's not a ton going on. There's some universities there, state capital, government jobs. Inventory is down 50% from normal. Meanwhile, go to Florida. Let's just go to Florida for comparison. Let's go to Lakeland or Ocala or Tampa. Inventory is up 80 to 100% from normal. And the reason I'm spending so much time on this data is so you guys can understand that this is a structural trend. There's people down in Florida who keep trying to say that this is just a short-term correction. There's people down in Florida who keep trying to say that there's tons of people still moving in. And I'm telling you that is no longer the case. And not only is it no longer the case, we've now flipped to the exact opposite. And this is ultimately an uncomfortable fact for a lot of people in the housing market to admit because Florida's GDP comes 25% from residential real estate. And so if your GDP comes 25% from residential real estate, you're gonna have a lot of people living in that state whose livelihood and whose income depends on that housing market continuing to go up. So when you then say that the housing market's going down and when the housing market is going down, a whole segment of the population just does not want to admit that that's possible. And folks, it's getting a little bright out. So I'm gonna put my hat on. I actually just got these ReVenture app hats. I ordered about 20 different hats. I got different logos. I'm flashing some of them on the screen right now. You guys can let me know which logos you like best. Eventually I might order more. And so this is actually kind of the cute little main street here in Valencia. You can see it's a very quintessential old school American town main street. I think the sign said that this town was founded in 1665, which is crazy. You can see it's a lot of old buildings. I mean, some of these buildings were built early 1900s. Some of these brick buildings over here were built in the 1800s. This is the other kind of cool thing about New York and other areas in the Northeast is they have a lot of character. And then you see a lot of cool signs like this. There used to be a governor of New York, Martin Glynn. I guess he used to live here at this site. He lived from 1871 to 1924. He was governor, lieutenant governor, congressman controller. So this is a historical site here. Here's another one. I guess this one dates back to 1826. He lived from 1790 to 1867. Meanwhile, in my last video in Florida, I was in a home building site where literally they're building 1,400 square foot homes, five feet from each other and cutting the price 20%. Very different. Now folks, check out this sign right here when you enter the town. This is, I guess, a painting of what it used to look like back in the day. But you can see here, founded circa 1665. Absolutely crazy. But let's get back to the housing market for a second, everyone. I think one important thing you gotta pay attention to, especially if you're a home buyer in a high property tax state, is what's going on with Trump's big, beautiful bill. Because in the big, beautiful bill, currently they have proposed increasing the salt deduction, the cap on the salt deduction from 10,000 to $40,000. So just some history. This has to do with property taxes and how much you can deduct your property taxes on your tax return. It used to be, I think, fairly unlimited. You could deduct all your property taxes on your income tax. Then in 2017, in the first Trump tax bill, they capped the amount on your property taxes that you could deduct at $10,000. And that had a big negative impact on housing markets like New York at the time. Because some of the houses in New York, if you pay a million dollars for a house, your property taxes could be $25,000 a year in some cities in New York. But the property taxes here are really, really high. Same thing in Illinois. You know, in the suburbs outside of Chicago, you buy a house for even 700 grand, your property taxes are probably 16,000. So what homeowners would do in these high-tax states is they would say, okay, but I'll just write those taxes off on my income. But in the 2017 tax bill, they were only allowed to write off 10,000, which was actually less than the standard deduction of 12,000. So that last Trump tax bill in 2017 basically eliminated the ability, more or less, to deduct your property taxes from your income. Now, they wanna increase that back up to 40,000, make the cap now 40,000, which would allow pretty much most homeowners in New York or Illinois or even Texas, which is another high-property-tax state, to deduct the full extent of their property taxes on their income. I personally don't like this segment of the bill. I don't know why we're making it easier for wealthy homeowners in high-tax states to deduct property taxes. That basically sends a message to high-property-tax states like New York and Illinois that you can just increase your taxes further. I don't know why they're doing that. I think it has to do with politics. Some of the congressmen in states like New York who are Republican are refusing to vote for the bill unless the salt cap deduction gets increased. But anyway, what you guys need to understand is that if this goes through, if this salt cap at 40,000 goes through, and it's not a guarantee it does, but if it does, that's gonna cause the boom in the housing market in New York and Illinois and New Jersey and Connecticut to get even bigger because then there's gonna be an even bigger incentive to buy on those high-tax properties, especially the more wealthier areas where the prices go up to a million. All of a sudden, it's gonna become 30% cheaper to own on an ongoing basis because you can deduct your property taxes. So pay attention to that, everyone. This is a sneaky little thing not a lot of other people are talking about. Could cause even more home buyer demand here in the Northeast and Midwest. But another area I actually really wanna talk about real quick is Chicago. Because Chicago and Illinois bear a lot of similarities to New York, right? Taxes are high, especially the property taxes. They'll get you in Illinois on the property taxes. And then it's cold weather. Economy wasn't so great during the pandemic. A lot of people left. But what's interesting is we're seeing also very tight housing market conditions in Chicago, particularly in the suburbs outside of Chicago, Lake County, DuPage County. The inventory deficit in these areas is 50% as well. So we're still seeing bidding wars all over the Chicago housing market, which again tells you just how crazy this national housing market is in 2025. And if I had told you three years ago that Chicago would have bidding wars today, but Florida would be crashing, you'd be telling me I'm crazy, but that's exactly what's happening right now. And it further proves the point that people are moving back home. I think we're seeing also just a trend where people kinda wanna go back home to where they're from in an area that they're familiar with. Even if that area might not totally align with them politically, or even if that area is gonna have cold winters, I think people want something a little different now. And we're entering a new era as well on just personal preference, especially of younger people and millennials. I think we're just seeing a slowdown in the idea that moving down South to a growing city is the best idea ever. I mean, I myself lived that. I moved to, what is it, five cities in five years. Columbus, Austin, Dallas, Nashville, and St. Petersburg are the five cities I moved to in five years. It was a lot of fun. Now, if you're someone who wants to actually access the data on the housing market and better understand where home prices are going in the future, I would encourage you to download the ReVenture mobile app. We talked about it before. You could pull up the mobile app right now and look at the zip code I'm in, 12184. What you guys can do when you download the mobile app is, number one, you could follow along in these videos with me. I was in Florida about a month ago, pulled out the mobile app, showed you what was going on. Now I'm in the opposite situation in New York, showing you a completely different market. I'm gonna keep showing you the housing market here in 2025, boots on the ground. Download that mobile app so you can stay with me, track me on the data. And then when you're ready, upgrade to a premium plan because that will allow you to access our price forecast on the mobile app. You could see it's hidden for free users, but when you upgrade, you could see our price forecast for every zip code. Here in 12184 in Valencia, we're at a 60 out of 100, which corresponds roughly to about projection of 6%, 6% to 7% appreciation over the next year. So we think values here are gonna go up 6%. We think they're gonna go down in about half of the US. So you're gonna wanna upgrade on that ReVenture mobile app and see what the score is for your city and county so you can know where home prices are heading in the future. You can download that ReVenture mobile app in the app stores for Apple and Android. And when you do, make sure to leave us a good, honest review. We could use more reviews to help the product get more exposure. 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