Washington D.C. Housing Market Is Cancelled - Prices Falling In All Categories

Michael Kielczalski, welcome to Sachs Realty Podcast. Thank you, sir. I appreciate this opportunity and we'll see where it goes. Yeah. So we're going to talk about DC today, try and let everybody know what's happening in the DC market. I have some stats here, but before we get started, tell everybody a little bit about yourself. Well, I'm born and raised in Delaware. I have been working in the DC metro market for approximately six years, and I've seen somewhat of a cyclicality from the pandemic and pre-pandemic, and it's been interesting. So we'll see what happens in the future. Are you seeing right now where the doge cuts, I know a couple months back in January, February, where we started talking about the potential for layoffs, and then we saw where doge was actually cutting jobs, slashing federal workforce, and there were some social media posts out there that were talking about housing crashes started in DC, the inventory had skyrocketed, and people were afraid that they were losing their jobs and they were panic selling. Are you seeing that? Not in DC specifically. Overall inventory is up 17%, but I think we should look back at 2019. That's the key benchmark, which we should base any type of narrative from. But current unemployment rate in DC proper is 5.8%. That's up from 5.5 in 2024. So no, we're not seeing anything specifically at this time, but things could change anytime. We don't really know. So when did you become licensed? It was 2019 for DC. It was about 2012 for my initial state of licensure, which was Delaware. So did you have a job before you got into real estate? So you got into real estate around 2012. You didn't really see the GFC so much. We were kind of coming out of it at that point. But what did you do prior to that? You seemed like a young guy. Did you go to college? Yeah, I went to UD, studied biology and history and entered the workforce in a very trying period. And I worked odd jobs from selling landscaping to working in a restaurant and ultimately started my own business. And that just shows you, you have to be scrappy and resilient in anything you do. But here I am and 12, 13, 14, going on 14 years later and it seems to be working out. What was the big attraction to entering the real estate industry? Did you have somebody that influenced you? Did you have family in the business? I mean, why did you decide to become a real estate licensee? I had no experience. I had no idea about real estate. This was kind of just a suggestion. I took the class on a whim and it took off. Maybe I understood some skill sets that are tremendously relevant to real estate, but it was something I just fell into somewhat haphazardly, to be completely honest with you. Let's talk about the DC market because you're from Delaware. Why did you focus in on DC? Why did you want to specialize in that area? I think you had mentioned to me that you lived close to DC at one point in time. When I first started being a company licensee, initially the MLSs were separated. We had the Marist license during the Marist MLS, which was then combined with Bright. I was sitting back and I was looking at different areas and understanding market cycles, becoming more fluent in real estate dynamic, what controls the movement and the supply and demand functions. I caught my attention to DC. If you really look at the trends overall, that's one of the most resilient markets in the country. It's literally a stone's throw from where I grew up. It's 100 miles, but that's a two-hour drive essentially. I could assess the data. There's a lot of overlap between the markets in these areas. You'll have resort properties in Delaware, which were transacted to DC area individuals. That's what got my attention to focus on it. But it was just, hey, this is going to be a career. Where can I go and find a market that's the most stable and I can produce some type of consistent revenue stream? Well, you wanted to go where the money is, where the money flows, where the goose that laid the golden egg is fundamentally located. I mean, government jobs, government contractors. Yeah. That's DC. One of the areas, I mean, we're not far from DC, but you're talking about one of the most affluent areas in the country. You're talking about where median household income is the highest in the country. What do you think is on the horizon? I mean, DC wasn't always hot. I agree. Yeah. I mean, if you look back 40 years, people were moving out of the town. A lot of my family's from North Virginia. My mother grew up in Alexandria and Annandale. People would go into the city when she was a kid and they would just have a fun weekend. But no one lived in DC for years and years and years. Well, people lived there, but you didn't have a whole lot. You don't have the money that you have now. Yeah. It wasn't built out as it was now specifically. But I think as government grew and expanded in the 60s and the 70s, we had all of that federal workforce grow. And additionally, there's professional services businesses and defense department-oriented businesses that grew. And that's really what created this urban city, what we see today. There's trains all over the city now, and it'll probably continue for the foreseeable future. I think that I can think of low-income areas in DC that became very affluent areas. And then we started seeing where even commercial space was, in some cases, more expensive than DC. And I'm not really going back that far. I'm talking about really in the time that you got into business, 2012, 13, 14. But really in 2009, 10, 11, we started seeing the big transformation in DC. I want to go over some stats because you were saying that inventory is only up 17%. And I want to just kind of... I have been covering DC ever since the Doge layoffs. I hope you're enjoying the interview so far. I just wanted to take a brief moment and let you know that this podcast is brought to you by SaksRealty.com. Here at Saks Realty, we're committed to bringing you the best real estate education and helping buyers and sellers achieve their real estate goals. If you haven't subscribed to our channel, please consider doing so now. And don't forget, we're on every major social media platform, so you can follow us there as well. Now back to the show. And we were doing live shows and kind of covering it and doing these every other week. As you know, Bright MLS actually made a section for people to track DC. Well, they disabled it. They didn't continue with it. But I don't know if you remember that, but they had sent out an email saying, hey, so many people are curious about this. Obviously, the social media people were lying. They were saying that people were panic selling. It certainly wasn't true. I started covering DC back in the fall when we were looking, I believe it was 36% price reductions back then. And the price reductions are all across the board. So this chart that I have up here, Michael, is only dealing with houses that are above 200,000. And these are all types, whether it's a condo or a detached house, everything in between. And the reason I picked over 200,000 is when we were diving in with all of this reporting of government employees panicking and selling their houses, nobody working in a government position is probably living in a less than $200,000 house in DC. Do you agree with that? I agree. Medium income is $106,000, so that makes sense. So I mean, I doubt very seriously. So that's why I said, I don't need to show them a whole bunch of stats with $4,000 houses. So basically, we were tracking this since February, the end of February, then March, March 18th, April 1st, and now today at the time of this recording. Coming soon has pretty much been flat except for a little spike in March. And then it picked up a little in April. And the reason I don't have that in red is because it's spring. I mean, look at it and you go, hey, this is a spring market, but nothing where we saw like all of a sudden 2,000 houses are coming soon. But the actives has gone up. So the inventory went from 1,943 over $200,000 houses in DC went up to 2,789 as of this morning. So that's a pretty big spike. But again, we're spring. We're coming out of spring. But the most alarming metric that I see in DC is this price reduction. Because 40% of them now have had at least one price reduction. And it's not just you say the mansions are selling. It's everything in between. These are homes over $200,000. Most of them are move-in quality, move-in ready houses that have been on the market for four months, five months, even more than that. 1,105 as of this morning have had price reductions in the active inventory. 40%. That's huge. No, I agree. And I think some of it's price discovery. Maybe it's some aspirational pricing from the peak of 2022. And we're still trying to suss out and feel the market. I mean, sellers always want to maximize their value and their net sale price. So I think that's part of what we're seeing. But in terms of a major crash, no, we're not seeing that currently. Well, I tell you what, you don't know what a major crash is. You may not be seeing it yet, but you weren't around in 2005 and 2006 when it started. I mean, we hit the peak in 2006. Builders started giving incentives in 2005 in Maryland. I know because I was involved in it. And when we had the headlines, news, Baltimore Sun said the overpriced Baltimore housing market, not a lot of people like to buy when somebody's broadcasting that, when a news source is broadcasting that, right? All of a sudden, people are like, wait a minute, is it overpriced? But then we watch people say, I don't care if it's overpriced. But I mean, how do you explain this? 40%, you say price discovery. What is price discovery? Describe that for us. It's a testing of the market. It's trying to understand really what the market will bear. Where not everyone uses a quantitative analysis to project a sale price. I mean, sometimes we're dealing with agents who might over-talk or over-fluff a prospective seller, and they're trying to see really what the market will bear. Theoretically, someone could come out and pay maximum price for a property. Of course, it's probably going to have to appraise. It could be a distinguished room through buyer psychology. They're still thinking in 2022, and things were peaking a few years later. It's a little more softer of a market. But that's what I'm thinking. It's just price discovery, essentially. Well, my price discovery was that we had about a 36 price reduction. 36% of the houses, I think it was in, Joe, was it in October or November or something back then? It was a while ago, right? I mean, we're talking about, yeah, I mean, I don't know how long this price discovery has to happen. Or we're seeing trends continue to downward spiral. So what do you think it is? Do you think that the agents haven't learned from September or October when over a third of the houses that were active inventory was in price decline in the fall? Do you think it was price discovery back? It takes that long? Were that dense to take that long for price discovery? Or do you think that the trend is just declining? The buyer demand's declining. The home prices are continuing to decline. Obviously, you have those scenarios where people are like, well, my neighbor's house sold for over list price. But what was that? If an agent strategized it and priced it right. So from your experience, is it truly price discovery of dense agents taking six months to realize or just desperate to get the client to list the house? Or is it we're seeing a decline? I mean, I don't know if it's binary. I would say maybe it's a combination of multiple factors. We are seeing the unemployment rate increase in D.C. proper. So it could be price discovery. It could be inexperienced agents testing the market specifically. But I would say to the stability of the market, we're still at very low inventory levels comparatively to 2019. So that's going to take a very long time for us to really see any type of major material changes in a market. And back in the GFC, it was 2008 to 2012. I mean, I might not have been practicing real estate at that point in time. But when I was taking listing presentations as a rookie agent in 2012, 2013, I remember going on listing appointments where people were having breakdowns emotionally about, this is what a sale price is. And if you really have to sell right now, it's a life event. You're going to lose a lot of potential equity. I've seen asset prices go down between 20% to 50% in certain markets from the great financial crisis. Are we seeing that now? I don't know. But the government is spending money. There's a $1 trillion defense budget that will kind of prop things up a little bit. So I don't know, to be completely honest with you. And I don't think really anyone knows. But is the trend moving in a certain direction? Possibly. We're going to have to look at, watch it for another few months at least. How are your sales? I'm flat, to be completely honest with you. Last year was a little soft. I've kind of reset back and trying to reevaluate strategies. And a lot of agents that work in this area cover DC, Virginia, and Maryland. And that's helped me a little bit to kind of keep things going. But it's not 2022 where we're selling everything possible. I've saw things occur in my tenure as a broker that I never hypothesized or even contemplated with houses going over ask. Hundreds of thousands of dollars, no contracts. I remember taking buyers out in DC specifically, trying to find undermarket properties. And I would help individuals specifically look for off-market opportunities and up and coming areas. And we would just tour them. And I would look for material, patent defects and things and use my experience and look, we can do some cosmetics on it. Here's the after repair values and things of that nature. But my ear is flat right now. And we'll see what happens here over the next six to eight months. But all we can do is try. Some listings are selling. A lot of buyers are still kicking tires. Hopefully, interest rates might come down. That's a whole nother argument. So we'll see. Well, I guess I'm just kind of curious. Describe what flat is. Flat meaning you have no business right now or flat meaning you're at the same pace as last year? Same pace as last year. Yeah, yeah. There's always going to be business. I've been, I'm seasoned enough where there'll be referrals and I have a lot of lead gen and I have a small team that I work with. But my numbers, if we're going to look at the actual sales volume, I'm completely flat and I was expecting to be a little higher this year. So how many have you done in DC so far this year? I mean, we're sitting at almost June 1st. A year to date, it was under 12. I'd have to bring up my spreadsheet. Which is 12 houses in DC. Yes, sir. That you've sold in DC. So who's buying? Can you kind of give us the, I mean, well, first tell us who's selling. What are these sellers doing or out of these, just call them 12 or around 12. What's the percentage of buyers and listings, sellers that you're out of those 12? It was mostly like buyer size within the district, to be completely honest. And I was always focused more like on condominiums. That was like my cohort specifically. And I always thought my unique sales proposition would be to understand the marketing of the specific buildings and could convey the nuance of it specifically. But it's predominantly buyers that we were working with this year in a couple of townhomes. And who are they? I mean, who's buying? Are they government employees? I don't know about you, but I kind of find where the government workers live in around DC. They don't live in DC. We have several counties in Maryland that they reside and commute to, whether they take the MARC or have them working remotely or some type of hybrid where they only go into DC once or twice a week. Are the ones that have bought this year, are they government employees? They're not necessarily federal employees. There's a lot of transplants, to be honest with you. The markets are very global, international. I had someone contact me from Canada. I was moving from a job transfer. She actually ended up leasing, to be honest with you, because the interest rates and the affordability was a struggle, which to your point, which we were discussing, I mean, is that really affecting the middle class in the area specifically? Who's buying and transacting? I would say it's young professionals, not necessarily federal employees, but that's a huge, huge segment of ancillary businesses. There's lawyers, there's accountants, there's other individuals who work for these companies, like things of that nature. So that's who's really, really moving. And you have people coming into that want to live in the city. Sometimes they're baby groomers. They still want a condo. DC's coming back. It was impacted significantly from COVID and that whole situation from the restaurant scene and the entertainment and all the vibrant. So that's starting to return and rejuvenate, and people want to maybe experience that city life if not intermittently. But to your point, you're right. Most of the federal workers are going to live in the collar county specifically, and then commute into just because of its quality of life. So would you say they're first-time buyers, or are they repeat buyers, the bulk of them? Your clients specifically. They're mostly first-time buyers, honestly, because I capture a lot of transplants. That's how the marketing I work with specifically. Some of them have owned properties in the area and are moving back. That's what I'm seeing. Back to the condos, you have people downsizing, and they want to maintain a small footprint. Maybe they want their resort property that they're going to spend eight months. The remainder of the year, they'll live in D.C. So it's predominantly that first-time home buyer and young professional. The median, I think, house or home buyer age is 39 now. So it's like these are older individuals that are taking a long time to gain stability. It sounds strange, but you have 40-year-old plus first-time home buyers now, when historically, you're probably in your 20s. Yeah, I agree. I mean, affordability is terrible. Where you hang your license, you guys kind of market yourself as a higher-end type of brokerage, correct? I mean, more luxury, would you say? I'll sell everything. I mean, I work in commercial. But I'm talking about Sotheby's in general. The brand has been sort of coined as we're the kind of elite higher-end brokerage. You try and be in a lot of the downtown areas, whether it's Annapolis or D.C., for instance. Tell me what's happening with agents. Are you seeing that agents are leaving the business? At least from your experience and what you're seeing in interacting with other agents on the opposite side of the transaction, what are you kind of hearing from them? Well, as I mentioned, I think the high-end is pretty stable right now. The wealth is growing. So that higher-tier segment is really not disaffected significantly from what I'm seeing currently. So no, agents are not leaving the business at the higher luxury price points. I think many people want to enter it, but that's a whole other dynamic. But the wealthy are really propping up a lot of area. We've had marquee sales. I'm talking 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 million in the area this year. That market is very, very strong. We have Bezos owns a house in D.C. Zuckerberg just bought near Calorama. We have a lot of these really high-net worth individuals purchasing in the collar counties in Northern Virginia, parts of Maryland, out the Potomac, and then even into D.C. specifically. So no, the high-end is booming, essentially. It's just the lower tier and the middle class is really what's being significantly impacted, unfortunately. Do you think if you hadn't had 12 or 14 years under your belt, what would you be thinking right now? I mean, do you think this is a bad time for agents to think about getting in the business? I have them reach out to me all the time. They're like, I really want to get my real estate license. What should I do? What would you say? I mean, I had someone contact me a couple, about a month ago, asking me. I was like, well, can you work without a paycheck for 24 months? And I've always been like, seriously. I was like, it takes that long to enter the business sometimes. It's like, do you want to work on the weekends? I mean, it's a lot of effort. And are you going to be able to grab market share in a down cycle, which we think is trending? And how are you going to compete people who are seasoned, like yourself, that's been in the business for decades, or myself, which has just scratched the surface over a decade? And we have the network. We have the skills. We have the capital. I mean, I've been working for a while and I save, save, save, save it. I reinvest my money. But is it a good time to enter real estate market? Probably not. I thought more agents were going to leave the business, to be completely honest with you. But the NAR numbers seem to be stable. And a lot of people are selling one or two properties a year, and it's still a part-time gig for them. And that's a whole another animal that we could discuss at some point. But I think, I saw some posts somewhere on social media. I don't know if there's any validity, but say 90% of agents haven't even sold a house this year. So again, it's not the Pareto principle where it's 80-20. It's probably more like 10% of the agents are doing 90% of the business. And you really have to excel and be that creme de la creme top agent to really persevere in this market, which goes into what we're discussing. Maybe things are going and trending positively. And again, I'm looking at a microcosm and I'm trying to look at the past couple of years, but the trends can change. And I could be wrong. I'm always open to interpretation and try to be objective to the best of my ability. But no, I don't think it's a great time to enter the real estate industry if you're a rookie. Yeah. Well, I think you're right. I mean, I think that it still is a microcosm. I mean, I cover a lot of the country. I talk to brokers that are all over the place. And I think that we are seeing a cooling off and year-over-year price declines. In now, 80 of the markets. So Lance Lambert, a regular contributor of our show, has Resi Club. And we just podcasted with him. It's about to come out this weekend. And 80 markets out of the 300 major markets in the U.S. are showing year-over-year price declines. Now, you sit back and you say, but we're not seeing that crash yet, right? We're not seeing where 30%, 40%, 50% of the houses or the home prices are coming down by that type of amount. But the biggest thing is we're seeing it shift. We're seeing it turn. And we're seeing a lot of different things that are in the housing market that we haven't seen in four or five years. And one of them is now we have this AI trying to come after real estate agents' jobs. We see where over the next couple of years, we have blockchain, which is probably directly attacking title as far as the need for having title policies. That's going to affect the title company world. But let's talk about your thoughts on the real estate agent in general. A lot of people are frustrated. Look, I know there are great agents out there. And I don't recommend a buyer to try and tackle this alone or a seller to try and tackle it alone. But you know, as well as I do, Michael, there are a lot of mismanaged agents running around and they don't know what they're doing. And in a lot of ways, they haven't contributed that much to the sale for their client, right? I mean, think about it. How much skill does it take when your buyer goes to an open house, says 35 people in there, and they say, Michael, I want the house, write it up. And Michael says, OK, well, how much over do you want to offer them over list price? And you know, you're not going to be able to get an inspection. You're not going to have it. But let me present the contract and hope that we're the highest with the least amount of contingencies. And would you agree there's not a whole lot of talent in that? No, I mean, you're opening a door, essentially. You're pushing paper. And it goes back to what we initially discussed. When I take buyers out sometimes, I'm looking for patent defects. Now, I'm not an architect, an engineer or an electrician, but I can tell you if a vertical crack or horizontal should be evaluated. We should be paying attention to stuff like that. And with someone who doesn't understand like a home inspection process, the construction, are they really representing their clients or we're looking at condos? Are they reading the minutes of the community discussions specifically? That's where the nuts and bolts really occur. And you really don't know that unless you're either experienced, you have a good broker, such as yourself or someone other that can kind of train these individuals. But a lot of these large brokers just don't have significant training protocols. And you're right. You're kind of shoved into the fire and hopefully don't get sued or cause a big mistake. I mean, buyers are becoming very savvy now. And there's Zillow, and there's Reuler, and there's ChatGPT, and everything else. And the writing is on the wall for many professional individuals. But I think there's always going to be a need for human connection. But at some point, we're all going to be working for robots, probably, to be completely honest with you. I mean, I have someone very close to me, found a couple AI startups, and I see what's going on out West. And I have my plug into it. And there's some really interesting things. And I can tell you, doctors, lawyers, a lot of other industries are going to be revolutionized over the next five to 10 years, if things maintain. But what we can do as agents is just try to upskill and provide the best value. But if you don't know what you're doing out there, and you're trying to talk the talk, it's going to come back and bite you at some point, because it's never a problem until it is. How are you navigating the... Now, for us, and I don't know about some of the other states that you're licensed in, as far as whether they were required to sign these buyer-agent contracts now. But I know a lot of states weren't required. I know Maryland, that's the only state that I'm licensed in. We've had buyer agencies since the 80s, 1980s. And there were certain points where we had presumed agency. So if I met you for the first face-to-face, the first time, I didn't have to sign anything with you. We had a presumed agency relationship. You called me, you wanted a real estate agent, I'm your buyer agent. But if I went out with you again, I had to sign a contract. So this has been for years. It wasn't that big of a change for us. But what was a big change was a lot of the agents were telling, in Maryland, were telling buyers that they were free. Hey, my services are free. The seller pays them. Well, I mean, you could imagine a savvy buyer getting to the settlement table and seeing the buyer agent has a $15,000 check coming to them and they go, damn, that wasn't free. Somebody paid that, right? So there was a lot of sort of things that were going on. We'll just say in a nice way. And also, they weren't signing the contracts when they should have signed the contracts. But now that it's kind of like out there and you better get these things signed and you better make sure that you're negotiating your fee, everything's negotiable in real estate. Are you seeing any change with defending your fees? And I don't want to know what they are because we can't talk about that stuff. But just in principle, how are you defending your fees and having those conversations with the buyers now? Well, if we're thinking about a listing, I'm explaining my deliverables, which I'll show them, like my marketing plans and execution. And I will explain to them the ad spend. It's thousands of dollars to market properties, specifically, if we're looking at a buyer. You spend money marketing a property? Sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt you. Really? You do that? Thousands. I didn't know agents did that anymore. And I retain the invoices too. So I could flash them to IRS or whoever if they really wanted to. You got to pay to play and it's a business and you have to invest. But in terms of a buyer representation, I always explain to them is that the services are not free when we're signing a buyer's agency agreement at a buyer's consultation. So it's not, hey, you pick up your phone, you're going to see a house or a property specifically. Not in Maryland, obviously. It's a little bit of a different animal. But in many other states, DC, Virginia, Delaware, et cetera, people are chasing these internet leads and they were just, open the door, open the door, sign the contract, goes back to your point. These were the inexperienced agents who had a lot of free time and were just grandiose paper pushers, perhaps, if we're going to put it euphemistically. But I explained to them is that I earned a commission from the seller through a co-broke specifically. If that is not provided, there will be a cost specifically. And then you want to talk to their loan officer and see really what financial product they're utilizing and if it is even possible on these individuals lack or possess the cash to close to purchase a property. And that could, in some instances, force some agent to, or should I say prospective buyer, to go unrepresented, which is a big problem. Not in Maryland. You have like inter and intra company agents. So there's always going to be some type of representation. I don't know if it's going to be a transaction or agent level, but- Yeah, we don't have, we're not a dual agent state. So the only one that can be dual agent is the broker. Agent can't represent both in Maryland. Precisely. It's like a sub-agent specifically, but it's, you know- Exactly. And there are a lot of agents that write their listing agreements where they do not offer sub-agent compensation, which is crazy. But I mean, it's, yeah. Hopefully the broker pays them out essentially. Yeah. I mean, it's, you know, it's, most people don't understand, even understand agency. Yeah. It's a lot of like legal ease specifically, but it's going to impact for buyers because some people can't afford representation. And again, to your point, they didn't know to understand and review the condo docs and the meeting minutes, things of that nature, but they understand the home inspection process. It sounds easy and, you know, and you can do it if you have the time and the gumption, but you know, it's optimal is you bring in a professional if you have the means, but I'm not really seeing a lot of deviation or commission compression at this point in time. It did come up a little bit initially and I have received questions, but a lot of these brokerages require certain contractual standards. And I think that might be, you know, protecting things a little bit specifically, but you know, it's just more of a topic of a conversation, but psychology is hard to change for people. And everyone's had this certain, you know, structures. We know everything's been negotiable, you know, and we all know that as in the industry, but the general public didn't know. And I think transparency is very beneficial for everyone. And if anything, this Parker Stitzer, you know, a lawsuit really, you know, put shown the light on our industry, because if you're doing a good job and you're professional, you're going to have clients. They're going to come back to you and they're going to be happy. And that's ultimately what we do. We want to find homes for people. We want to make people happy. And then we want to make things as smooth as possible. But, you know, going without representation as a buyer can be a big issue. Because again, they might disclose something to a listing agent. Guess what? I have no representation or allegiance to you through agency. And that's going to go right back to the seller. I know your bottom line. Maybe you don't understand a home inspection, you know, things of that nature. So it can go either way. Yeah. Well, Michael, we really appreciate you joining us and sharing your insight into the market. It's something that is definitely unfolding. We will, you know, we'll have to see. We'll check in together. And anything that you see that's happening in D.C. that's noteworthy, please let us know. Appreciate it. Thank you. It was a great opportunity. I hope all's well. All right. We'll talk to you soon. Thank you. Thanks so much for watching. If you like the video, you can let us know by smashing that thumbs up. And if you haven't already subscribed to our channel, please consider doing so now. 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