Election countdown: What’s at stake for Germany?

Who's going to lead the next German government? If you haven't been living under a rock, you're aware that Donald Trump is causing Europeans a big headache right now, Vladimir Putin is too, and I could go on, but we'll have clarity here in Berlin in a few days how the next German government is going to position itself because Germans are going to the polls on Sunday. So, today, Thursday morning, we're going to give you a full Berlin briefing on all you need to know when it comes to the final push ahead of the federal elections, the Bundestagswahl. So, we'll talk big issues, key players, latest polls, and then we'll talk smaller parties because they do have a bigger impact than many might imagine. And lastly, predictions. So, grab your coffee or your election day schnapps and let's get into it. But, Michaela Kufner, before we do this, you're DW's chief political editor and you and I have just come back from a truly memorable Munich security conference where the US Vice President J.D. Vance gave a speech that sent shockwaves around Europe. Just walk us through what happened there in Munich. Well, absolutely. European leaders were expecting and hoping to learn from the United States what they expect in terms of defence of the European Union actually taking care of its own defence, spending more money. Instead, he went right to the heart of European democracy. He questioned whether there actually is freedom of speech in the European Union and, quite notably, a week, just over a week ahead of these elections here in Germany, he told Germans to drop the firewall. That's this agreement not to cooperate with the far right alternative for Germany here in these elections as well. That sparked a counter reaction, both from Chancellor Schultz, but also the current frontrunner, Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Conservative Party. So, you can see that there is a political consensus here in Germany to stick up for this firewall towards the far right. But clearly, the United States disagrees on the very hallmarks and the basics that make up democracy here in the EU, but specifically in Germany. So, let's hear what Friedrich Merz, the person who looks the most likely to win this election on Sunday with his party, what he said to Michaela in the interview after JD Vance gave his speech. Today is a really historic day. The American security guarantees are being called into question. The Americans are questioning democratic institutions and they are interfering quite openly in an election, including in relation to democratic parties and their majorities. And I have to say, it disturbs me. It doesn't surprise me because they have talked about this before, but I firmly reject it. It is not the job of the American government to explain to us here in Germany how we should protect democratic institutions and we will continue on our course. Yes, and that is actually quite an analysis just a short while after the key partner, without whom the Europeans are basically defenceless at this moment in time. It's remarkable criticism from someone who knows that he is very, very likely to have to be able to work with exactly this administration that is now questioning the fundamentals, the bedrock of what these democracies were built on. JD Vance also questioned how important institutions are and by that he of course means the courts. He means the constitution. He means the very foundations of democracy. He says that the majorities are more important than that. And this is a questioning what particularly the German lesson in history is because our constitution, our election system, and also the broad consensus towards this firewall, not to let far-right populists get anywhere near power again, is built on that very experience of institutions breaking down. Matt, I want to bring you in. Matt Moore, who has been traveling the country quite a bit, but perhaps in this context here, it's important for viewers to know that you're also our expert for the far-right AFD party. JD Vance, the US vice president, after that speech had a date in Munich. Tell us about that. So after the speech, we learned through Alice Feidel, the leader of the AFD, the woman who is their chancellor candidate, the chancellor candidate, that she had a private audience with JD Vance in his hotel. I don't think the AFD could scarcely believe their luck that they have someone in the White House and someone in the vice president's role who would come to Germany and do such a kind of great job of batting for them, essentially listing off their policies, that they're feeling that they're being locked out of the democratic discussion in Germany, talking about the, not talking in fact about the war in Ukraine really much, and also talking about their key issue of freedom of speech. They think that there's an attack on freedom of speech. And then not only to have them say that to an audience in Munich, but then to meet with their leader personally for 30 minutes when, let's remember, he met with Friedrich Mertz, who's likely to be the next chancellor of Germany for around 20 minutes, Michela, you'll know the details on that. He didn't meet German chancellor Schultz at all. He spent 30 minutes with Alice Feidel. And the AFD wasn't invited inside the Munich security conference because of that very firewall as well. And then, you know, they're saying, yeah, we had a really friendly chat, it was Chatham House rules. No details really on what they discussed. I mean, we heard they discussed the war in Ukraine, they discussed domestic politics, but none of the real details of what was said. But just the very fact that that took place is an extraordinary coup for the AFD. So lots of people have their eyes on a Sunday. This Sunday, just a matter of hours now before we know what the next German government could potentially look like, because Germans are going to the polls. But Ben, for an international audience, it is important to know that at 6pm on Sunday, when polls close, we will know certain things, but we won't know others. Can you, you as our, you know, senior correspondent, political correspondent, you have your eyes on all things Europe. So you know, that lots of Europeans are also watching eagerly to hear what will come out, but they'll have to have some patience, won't they? Yeah, at six o'clock, you get the projections, we don't know the final result. And this time, it's especially important because there are three little parties, you know, which could or could not jump over the 5% threshold, which is important in Germany, because you have to have 5% to get seats in the parliament, we will know that the Conservative Party will be the biggest block. The second biggest will be the far right AFD. And then we don't know exactly will the Greens or the Social Democrats be the third or the fourth. And it might be difficult, then at six o'clock already to know who will be able to form a coalition depending on how many parties are actually in the parliament. And there are 630 seats, this time, it's easy to allocate them because it's only this, they've made some reforms. There are some reforms. So it's only now a question how many percent the parties get with the so called second vote or the really important vote. And then you can do the calculation. But for example, if the left party, a leftist populist party comes into parliament, then it might be possible that the CDU, the conservatives, the CSU, the other conservative party and the Social Democrats form a so called grand coalition, which is not so grand anymore, because the parties are smaller than ever before. Or if the Greens are also needed to form a third, to form a new three party coalition. So this is all not decided at six o'clock, it will take until maybe seven or eight, because the polls are very tight. And we don't know yet. But beyond the maps, I just want to throw in there, we are in a new reality here. And I just want to come back to that historic moment that Friedrich Maas, the frontrunner who's likely to become next chancellor noted at the Munich Security Conference. We just saw a debate where the big elephant in the room was really Trump's comments about Ukraine, about Zelensky. And the Europeans face a completely new threat. We've seen two emergency meetings of European leaders this week alone, and we're recording on Thursday, it's not necessarily the last one. So the Europeans are completely up against the wall. And the maths, as you just mentioned, will be playing out. But what is becoming an even larger factor in what the realities will be post elections is which party will play along will play ball when it comes to bolstering own defence capabilities within the EU. And this clearly at this moment indicates that the Social Democrats led by Olaf Scholz, who are notably silent on this, we also saw a debate that really didn't address the big elephant in the room of Ukraine, Russia and Trump. I find that astonishing, by the way. Yeah, completely. It was outlandish to watch that the one factor that affects all the other issues discussed migration, the economy and social spending was not raised. So clearly, all sides seem to be backing away from having to make this an election issue. And this is potentially even a factor in how this is unfolding from the US side, because they know that Europe's largest economy, the biggest, most important country is politically paralysed until Monday. But Monday will be the new political reality where maths, yes, plays a huge factor, but also the willingness to recognise that this is a new reality that Germany and the EU is facing is playing an increasing role. If you take into account the Ukraine policy and the policies towards the Russia, there's only a coalition possible between the Conservative, the Social Democrats and the Greens. And that's it, because the other parties are, you know, saying we want some peace talks, we support even Trump's approach. So if you only take that, then it's clear which coalition we will have. But here, it's important, I think, that we look at the latest polls and we at DW, we rely on which is done for public broadcasting ARD, and their latest polls see the SPD at 14, the Conservatives at 32, the Greens at 14, the FDP at 4, the AFD at 22, the Left at 6. So they would make it into Parliament, according to this poll. And the populist BSW movement, that new party, 4.5. And then we also have another poll that is not very different. But all of these latest polls do suggest that, that we're probably going to end up with another three-way coalition. And we've done special episodes here on this podcast about all those bigger parties. But I think if somebody has not watched anything about the Germany elections, maybe we should just do a quick recap. If you're interested in finding out more about those bigger parties that are playing a key role, go back, scroll through our playlist. You've got them all in there. But now we'll play a game. We'll say 20 seconds on each of the most important parties. And I'll start with the Social Democrats, with the SPD. Let me look at the words up there. So the SPD are entering this election round with the current, the incumbent German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as their candidate. He is convinced that he wants to continue the path that he's been on. He prides himself in having taken a cautious approach towards all those foreign policy challenges, not delivering too many weapons straight away, but always essentially consulting the partners. And they will probably, as we said, end up in a government coalition. So, Michaela, Conservatives. The CDU-CSU, if the polls are anything to go by, their top candidate, Friedrich Merz, will become Germany's next Chancellor. It's formerly known as Angela Merkel's party, but Friedrich Merz, who became a political adversary and then left politics over Angela Merkel's policies, has shifted it back towards the Conservative camp. It is clearly more in favour of supplying that very contentious weapon, the Taurus system, to Ukraine, if other allies agree. And they're also a living example that coalition is the name of the game here in Germany, because there are actually two separate parties in themselves who are together in one block. And their task will be, and I know they're praying right now, that it's not going to be a three-way coalition, but they will have to square this political circle come Monday. OK, I don't think that was 20, but that's OK, because he's probably going to lead the next government. Matt, 20 seconds on the far-right AFD start now. So the far-right AFD are the most anti-immigrant party that is in the Bundestag. They will probably be the biggest opposition party, if the polls are right as they stand at the moment. This is a party that basically wants to re-establish relations with Russia. It wants to drop sanctions. It wants to rebuild Nord Stream 2 pipeline and start supplying gas again. It wants to reopen nuclear power stations and coal mines. And it basically drift away from renewable energies. This is a party that wants to leave the euro. This is a party that is fiercely critical of the European Union. So as I said, they will probably be the biggest opposition party in the Bundestag. Bernd, 20 seconds on the Green Party. Well, the Greens are campaigning with the two faces they also had already in the Ampel coalition, the traffic light coalition. So the foreign minister and the minister for economics are also there. They managed to come out of this race as the one of the Ampel parties that is actually holding their results from the last elections. SPD and FDP are way down, but the Greens are still on the same level. So this is a kind of a success, you can say. And they are the only party that is talking about a green transition of the German economy towards climate change. They are the only ones proactively mentioning the term climate crisis. The others are not mentioning it anymore. And when it comes to coalitions, the Greens are very flexible. They can do coalitions with the conservatives and also with the SPD. So they have no problems to do that again, I think. And it depends how much they actually will gain, if they will before or after the social democrats in the race. But we've also mentioned or touched upon those smaller parties. Some of them might make it into Bundestag, some of them might not. Why does that even matter? I mean, you have become sort of our expert for the smaller parties. So tell us, why does that matter how they do in the results? That is due to the German election system. You have 630 seats that are allocated among the parties that come into the Bundestag. So the more there are, the smaller is the amount of seat that can be allocated to the bigger ones also. So if you have two or three of these small parties in there, it will be very difficult to form a coalition with only two big parties. So you would need three parties and a three party coalition is always instable. And so nobody wants that actually, but it can happen. There's also the liberals, there's a very slight chance that they also get in. They want to... You mean the FTP? Yeah, the FTP. They could do a coalition with the CDU then. So it's a really tricky game this time. They still say that they could get into Bundestag comfortably and they might even rake up some 9%. And so, you know, there are a lot of very optimistic politicians out there still. There's also the theory that you take all the leftist parties, so the BSW, the lefts, the Social Democrats and the Greens together, in theory, they could also form some kind of a whatever coalition, you know, to prevent the conservative to lead the coalition. But this is... This is the point where I guess it's worth looking at the polling and the expectations because about a third of voters are still undecided according to pollsters. That's the expectation. And when you look at individual parties and their potential to gain more support in these elections, the figures are pretty incredible. I've been to one polling briefing where there seems to be an expectation that the Social Democrats, who are currently polling at 14%, that they could have a potential additional 15%. Even the Free Democrats currently fighting for their pro-business, Free Democrats fighting for their political survival, upwards of two-digit expectation of what they're putting in. So it adds up to almost 200%, actually, in terms of the flexibility that people have. At the same time, interestingly enough, the one exception is the far-right alternative for Germany, which is currently polling at around 21%. And pollsters believe that they max out at 25%. So when you look at this fragmentation here in Germany, the AfD is the one that is the closest to maxing out on its voting potential. And just one historical interjection here. The German election system was, of course, built out of the experience of Weimar that allowed a populist rise of then the Nazis. And that's why there is a 5% threshold here in Germany. Having said that, the fragmentation still is becoming an increasing issue because we don't have a winner-takes-it-all system. But if you talk about the AfD, if they get 25% and if BSW did make it into Bundestag, then there is also something in the German system that is called the blocking minority. So if you reach a certain number of seats in the parliament, then you can object to vital changes, to the most fundamental changes, for example, to our basic law. But they could potentially, together with the BSW, if the BSW get into Bundestag, also block massive changes that the next German government is thinking about. One of those things, and this is what's really at stake on Sunday, is the more parties that get in, the more difficult it is to form a coalition. But the big issue is the debt break, right? So we've heard that the major parties are kind of Friedrich Merz, you know, has said he would be open to a reform of that debt break. You need a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag. And if you can't, if you don't have two-thirds of the majority, then that debt break reform will not get through. And then that need to borrow huge amounts of money to spend on infrastructure, to spend on rearming the Bundeswehr and defence, that's a massive issue. And it's just kind of wild to me that in this week, you know, we talked about what happened in Munich last week, and I kind of found it astonishing. I feel like that scene in that movie, like Don't Look Up, where everyone's kind of warning about the asteroid about to hit, and no one's doing anything. This feels like this election and what just happened in the last week is going to have major consequences for Europe, for Germany, and we're not really dealing with it and wrestling with it. And the fact that, you know, you could be, we need to spend huge amounts of money in Germany on infrastructure, on defence, and that could be blocked by this, by one small party. You're right. I mean, we might look back at this week, where there actually is a special hearing of the Interior Committee over this attack that happened in Munich, and what more could have been done. So they chose this single issue. That was the attack that happened when we were all on the train to Munich on the Thursday, where a person from Afghanistan drove into a crowd and a woman and her small child died afterwards due to their injuries. So this shocked the nation, obviously. And we've heard leading politicians, Olaf Scholz, also Friedrich Merz, who's the frontrunner to become Chancellor, saying, look, Parliament will function throughout, don't worry, because we've asked many times about what happens if Trump does this, does that. Now, we're just a couple of days ahead of these elections, and we're seeing this hearing, but we're not seeing all sides come together and say, look, we have to get this reform through. And I have to say that Olaf Scholz has continuously asked for Friedrich Merz to do this. The whole coalition broke apart over the unwillingness of the pro-business free Democrats. I mean, arguably over their unwillingness to talk about having an exception to this debt break. But Olaf Scholz himself is the man who made sure that this debt break was installed in the first place. So, yeah, so they're caught up with themselves and they may well regret not, and we're recording this on Thursday, not having used the last days and hours of these current majorities to change the debt break or to at least declare an emergency and create an exception. Friedrich Merz might well regret this, but clearly he has decided that he has more political capital to lose by seeking a compromise in the final hours than he has to gain on election evening in terms of votes. I want to just spend a little more time talking about the smaller parties, because despite all those international developments, despite the fact that the election campaign changed topics from economy to migration, and it was a very short election campaign period, right, but the polls were sort of stable, even if the SPD said the conservatives had committed, had broken a taboo essentially by allowing a vote to happen only, to be successful only with the help of the far-right AFD. The only party that did see a change where many of us had said, ah, they're gone, they're gone, they will not make it into Bundestag again, was the left party. And a video is going viral on the internet, and we'll just play that clip by one of their candidates, by the left party, who gave the speech after that vote went through Bundestag. Let's listen to Heidi Reichenegg from the left party. I tell you, you are making yourself a willing accomplice with this, and today you have changed this country for the worse. I repeat what I said in my speech, no matter how hard you try, the firewall in this country is still us, all of us. We will take to the streets, we will go to the ballot boxes, and I can promise you this, we will make sure that this comes to an end now. I also say this to the SPD and the Greens, rule out a coalition with the CDU-CSU, it can only harm you. But I also say this to the people out there, don't give up, fight back, resist fascism in this country, to the barricades. Yeah, Heidi Reichenegg is not only giving speeches in Bundestag, she's very successful in her TikTok, on her TikTok account. She has a reach of millions, and she's even more successful than the far-right AFD TikTok stars that we talked about recently also. They managed somehow to resonate with young voters, so the left is going up. Especially in the cities. Yeah, so they're going up in the polls, they started from five, now at some polls they see them at seven, even nine percent, which is astonishing. But they also have a backdoor, they also might get three direct mandates from older members of the party that are campaigning, especially in East Germany, so they could also for sure get into the Bundestag, that might happen. And the left party is mostly campaigning on social issues and also saying we have to make peace in Ukraine somehow, but they are at least against the Russian aggression. They say this is wrong, this is war crimes and stuff like that, but they don't want any arms delivered into Ukraine, so they would also not fit in any coalition right now. They're also considered pro-Gaza, so they've been quite outspoken when it comes to this topic, and this is something where of course if they do get into Bundestag, that is going to be a whole different aspect as well, to have this voice there essentially also holding the next German government to account when it comes to foreign policy. So a lot of that is still up in the air. I just want to end this episode on our predictions. Michaela, let's start with you. What do you think will actually happen on Sunday and what kind of a government are we going to see? Well, I mean, it's pretty clear from the polling that the conservative CDU-CSU is going to win. Friedrich Merz, I predict, would be tasked with forming a government. I also predict that the Free Democrats, the pro-business Free Democrats, who were the natural ally of the conservative CDU-CSU, will narrowly not make it into parliament. They've really been fighting a political death fight, but Friedrich Merz hasn't really thrown them any kind of lease of life in this campaign either. And I also expect that he will have to form a coalition with three parties, which is actually not what he wanted to do. And that will be a very tough one. Isn't it always a three-way coalition, though, when the conservatives lead? I mean, that is something that you hear from Bavaria. Exactly. Well, if you count them as two parties, because in one German state, in Bavaria, the CDU doesn't campaign. They leave it to their sister party, the CSU. And they have been very clear that they don't want to go together with the Greens. What are your thoughts on that, Markus Söder? Well, Markus Söder, the state premier, rules out the Greens. But he's also, in the last campaign, two campaigns before that, he was hugging trees and wanted to talk to the Greens. When climate was a much bigger issue at the time. And now he's zoomed in on Robert Habeck, the current vice chancellor and lead candidate, chancellor candidate from the Greens. He doesn't want to see him as trade minister again. So clearly, there is some leeway in terms of agreeing on whether the Greens could be part of this or not. I would expect the conservative CDU, CSU to have a much easier time in the face of Trump and Russia to find some kind of agreement with the Greens, despite the fact that they are very, very far apart, particularly on the migration issue. But they are simply more pragmatist at the top than there are within the Social Democrats, singling out, of course, their parliamentary party leader there, who is very, very much against delivering more weapons and who simply still believes in Russia as a partner. I hate this question because I have no idea how it was. Sorry. So I think I said last time that I think they will get the AFD, the far-right AFD will get something like 22, 23, 24 percent. I don't know. I think that the campaign has been very useful for them in the sense that we've seen Alice Weidel in debate with the chancellor, with the leader of the CDU, the Christian Democrats. So the AFD have really arrived as a major party in Germany. Well, it has helped that Elon Musk has endorsed her and held an hour-long chat with her. Also, something that we talked about here on Berlin Briefing in a special episode. And then so. But on the other hand, we've seen a side to Alice Weidel where she's been under a lot more scrutiny. That is the leader of the AFD. We're a lot more scrutiny, you know, people asking questions about where she lives. This is a person who lives in Switzerland. Right. And that who does she live with, Matt? Yes. So she lives with her Sri Lankan-born partner. So in a civil marriage and they have two sons together. And I think this for a lot of Germans, they might not have known this. And so a female partner. Yeah. So so the point being they're learning a lot more about this party. They're seeing her under scrutiny and she has reacted to difficult moments in live studio debates. I would say kind of very short-tempered, thin-skinned, irascible. And I don't know whether or not that necessarily helps them to win votes. But I don't know if it necessarily loses them votes because it is such a kind of core vote that they have. But I guess they'll probably get something like 20, 21, 22. But I don't know. Do you think she'll stay on as party leader? Absolutely. Yeah. And your predictions? Do you hate this question too? No, no. I'm going with the chaos option. I would say we will have eight parties in the parliament. So all three parties. God, that sounds like Belgium where you lived for a long time. All three parties, all the smaller one could make it because the polls are not clear and the margin of error is huge. So and this would also lead to a three-way party coalition, the Conservatives, the Greens and the Social Democrats. But it could also be that we end up with a hung parliament. That's also possible now after the law, the voting law changed. 316 is the majority you have to get. And I would also just mention the one guy from the South Schleswig Voter Association who has a mandate guaranteed and he could be the deciding one. And I just want to recap, actually, that the reason why it's so important that these small parties, whether they come in or not, is because that 5% threshold, like if three parties with 4.8 drop out, you need less percentage points to have half the votes in parliament, of course. And the very last round of questions that I have for you is we've already mentioned the debt break and the financing of all those major policies that they'll have to implement the next German government. What else should be the priorities for the next German government? Well, the parliament has to answer this huge shift in geopolitical order, what disorder what we have now. This is the foremost question that has to be answered and then the financing and then comes all the rest. So it's deal with Trump, Russia, Ukraine and foreign policy first. It's the only show in town. I don't know. Yeah, it feels weird to talk about other issues when we're seeing such a geopolitical divide take place. And it feels like a real titan vendor, as Germans like to say. Yeah. Well, most important will be the economy and uniting Europe. Germany's task has always historically been uniting Europe. And that's why it got a lot of criticism over decades for not showing enough leadership. And that leadership will now have to mean that the next chance, most likely Friedrich Merz knocks some heads together in Brussels, but also makes the financial commitments and at the same time, gets the German economy up to speed because without the economic strength, that voice is not going to be heard. And the formation of the coalition has to be fast. They were talking about Easter. That's far and that's not fast enough. They still think it's fast, though. The decisions are due also on European level now. So if you wait until Easter, you still have Olaf Scholz, the Social Democrat, there sitting there at the tables and he has to make decisions. How does Friedrich Merz get on with Emmanuel Macron? He says they get on very well. Indeed, they did have actually several meetings over the past couple of years where he was reshaping the conservative CDU, CSU. It's easy to say he gets on with Emmanuel Macron a lot better than Olaf Scholz because they simply do not get on. All right. Well, we'll be talking about all of this a lot. That's my feeling in the next couple of editions of Berlin Briefing. But now you should know everything there is to know before we have special coverage here on DW News on Sunday about those elections and also on Monday when we know the first results and the first projections are clearer. And then we'll have special coverage for you as well on Monday. So make sure that you come back to where you found this video. And if you're listening, of course, you can find us on all the major podcast platforms. Make sure you subscribe to DW Berlin Briefing. Thanks very much. Do send us your comments. That's feedback at dw.com. We've also got a newsletter. So next week, next newsletter is also going to be giving you a lot of insight when it comes to what's shaking and shaping German politics. Thanks very much.