Fed near point of slowing its policy easing following December cut, minutes show

Invest Insight
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Jan 9, 2025
CNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve.
10-year as we get the minutes coming out right now from Steve Leesman in Washington.
Steve, do tell.
The Federal Reserve at its December meeting was at or near the point after cutting by a quarter
of slowing its policy easing. The rate cut that they did enact was seen as quote
finally balanced. It was a finally balanced call and some wanted to not cut at all. That is more
than just the one dissent. Not everybody has the vote. So why did the Fed cut? The minutes say that
the Fed cut rates to maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market while continuing
progress on inflation because they believe they were restrictive. The risk between inflation
unemployment and unemployment were seen as roughly balanced. Inflation had eased substantially though
it remains somewhat elevated. What you're going to hear next is a lot of the back and forth at
the meeting between those most concerned about inflation and those less concerned. So the pace
of disinflation had slowed some said with recent readings higher than anticipated. Upside risk to
inflation had increased. Several were concerned that disinflation may have stalled or
risk stalling. On the other side some people said disinflation was still apparent across the board
especially in market prices as opposed to the non-market prices on a range of goods and services.
Now moving on the firms were seen as more reluctant to increase prices. Consumers were
more price sensitive. Changes in trade and immigration policy. Now a big discussion about
coming fiscal policy here. It's mentioned several times in the minutes. Changes in trade immigration
policy could delay inflation improvement. The uncertainty of elevated it also elevated the
uncertainty out there about policy. It was a rising business optimism however and uncertainty
reported from expectations for tax policy changes along with deregulation. Positive market sentiment
and momentum in growth could put upward pressure on inflation and the Fed was concerned about
knowing the difference between what was a temporary increase in inflation for example from tariffs.
They didn't use that example but that's the implication or from other forces in the economy
that might be more permanent. So a period of uncertainty ahead according to the Federal
Reserve guys and this is why they have telegraphed they will be slowing the pace of easing in the coming year.
