Why Disney World Could Be Empty in 2025

Has Disney World finally done it? Have they created a scenario where their parks will be empty next year? Or are the crowds gonna still be flooding the parks in full force? Let's break down the possibilities so you'll know how to plan around them in 2025. Hey everybody, it's AJ for Disney Food Blog. So for the past few years, the DFB team and I have been releasing videos diving into the possibilities and predictions of Disney World's crowd levels for the upcoming seasons. But today's video is one of the most eye-opening for us yet, because the possibility of Disney World's crowds being a whole lot thinner than you're used to isn't a big fairy tale. In fact, there's a ton of actual data and scenarios already in place that could further drive that point home for us and prove once and for all that Disney World's crowds next year could shock everyone. So as usual, we're gonna start with what Disney themselves have said on this topic. It's always good to hear it straight from the source's mouth so let's see what Disney CEO Bob Iger has to say about the fate of the crowd levels and theme park revenue for 2025. Back during the May 2024 earnings call, we learned that the Disney Parks and Experiences section of the company had actually increased their revenue by this year's second quarter. But Iger mentioned that this wasn't exactly gonna be a trend for the upcoming quarters. While Iger noted that there were still a good number of folks booking vacations for the foreseeable future, even though it's been years since the post-COVID shutdowns, Disney is just now starting to see those spiked revenge travel vacation numbers evening out again from those post-COVID highs. And then when the third quarter earnings call came around, Iger again addressed the steady decline the company was starting to see in park attendance. Iger brought up the end of revenge traveling again, emphasizing that once more, people are no longer feeling bit by the travel bug after being cooped up inside their houses for so long with no place to go. But along with revenge travel dying out, Iger also noted that the attendance numbers they're seeing right now are being compared to the numbers that we were seeing in 2021 and 2022, right when the 50th anniversary celebration was taking place and lots of Disney fans came out for it. And Iger didn't just point out Disney World's dropping attendance. He pointed out the lower crowds for the state of Florida as a whole and how the local tax data shows evidence of some crowd softening in several major Florida tourism markets. While this isn't necessarily the truth for all of Florida, experts and economists have noted that this recent decline in visitors, specifically domestic visitors, might be a direct impact of slower economic numbers as well as competition from other states, which is why pulling in those international visitors is so vital for Disney World in the state of Florida. Guests from overseas tend to stick around longer and spend more money while they're in the area. Meanwhile, domestic travelers are starting to prefer either shorter, more budget friendly trips or going elsewhere that's still more budget friendly in a time when inflation is continuing to creep upwards. But this most recent fourth quarter earnings call was the one that was the most telling for what we can expect to see come from 2025. While revenue and income continue to see a steady increase for the company due to extra expenses like lightning lanes and magic band plus, the attendance numbers could not tell a lie. Demand for Disney's domestic parks continues to be rather flat when compared to previous years. There are more things that were addressed during those earnings calls that we'll be exploring more throughout the video, but to sum up what's been said so far, Disney also sees the crowd numbers dipping down, they know it's going to continue happening, and they're not really shocked by these results. One of the big reasons that people might be more hesitant to invest in a big Disney World trip next year is because 2025 is going to be more of a transition period rather than a we're going to blow your socks off year. Not too long ago we made a video breaking down the big $60 billion investment that Disney's using to improve its parks and entertainment over the course of the next 10 years, and we really started to learn more about how that budget is going to continue affecting Disney World during this year's D23 fan event. While several of Disney's announcements revolved around new restaurants and revamped rides, fresh entertainment offerings, there were four reveals specifically that really highlighted how much Disney World's going to start wowing us in revolutionary ways, and that's going to be through four different land expansions. In Magic Kingdom, Pixar Cars will be driving out of Radiator Springs to explore the West and expand the Frontierland we know and love currently. There will be two new Cars attractions coming to Magic Kingdom in this new area. One's going to take you on a race through the mountains and wild terrain along mountain trails, dodging geysers and splashing through mud holes. The second ride will be geared towards smaller racers as a fun ride for the whole family. Disney also announced that a villains land is coming to Magic Kingdom that'll be placed beyond Big Thunder Mountain Railroad. Now this new land will encompass all our nightmares and may make happily ever after a distant dream, according to Disney. Here, you'll be able to enjoy new dining and shopping opportunities, as well as conquer two new Disney villain-based attractions. Meanwhile, over in Hollywood Studios, Monsters, Inc. Land will be taking over Muppets Courtyard. The story of the land will pick up after the events of the film, where humans have now been invited to visit the world of Monsters, Inc. For the first time ever, we'll finally get to visit the Laugh Factory with Sully and Mike, and we'll get to go into the factory and experience Disney's first ever suspended rollercoaster. Yep, Disney's also just announced that a new theater show will be coming to Monsters, Inc. Land, along with the vaguely previously announced dining and shopping. Is Mama Melrose turning into Harry Housens? Kind of looks like it. With Muppets Courtyard closing, the Muppets are actually moving to, wait for it, Rockin' Rollercoaster. Yep, 2025 will be the year to get in those last rides on the Aerosmith-themed Rockin' Rollercoaster before Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayhem take over the building. I am very excited for the Janus merchandise. And while we already heard about the Dinoland USA takeover earlier on during the Destination D23 event in 2023, we learned more about it this year as Disney revealed future plans for this soon-to-be Tropical Americas section of Animal Kingdom called Pueblo Esperanza. This new section will feature popular film characters straight from Encanto and Indiana Jones, and also highlight classic Spanish-style architecture with a large hacienda that will be one of the largest quick service restaurants that Disney's ever built. There will also be two signature attractions, an Encanto ride featuring the beloved Madrigal family, and a new Indiana Jones adventure ride, probably similar to what you're going to find over in Disneyland. Additionally, Pueblo Esperanza is going to feature that giant carousel sculpted by a local woodcarver, or at least that's the backstory. It's very beautiful. It looks very beautiful. So yeah, lots of shakeups happening around these parks, but as exciting as all these new expansions and rethemed lands are, we're not going to be seeing them come to life in 2025. Instead, 2025 will be the first year of construction on these new areas, meaning we're going to be seeing a whole lot of work being done in Magic Kingdom, Animal Kingdom, and Hollywood Studios too. Yeah, you remember Walcott over when Epcot was under so much construction? Expect the same treatment in these three other parks. Sure, the parks are still going to be fun and operational, much like they've always been, but the construction areas will not only be a bit immersion-breaking for 2025 guests, but serve as a reminder of new things to come for those who will wait to visit the parks until 2026 and beyond. Now, we can't ignore this one. Disney's expensive and just getting more and more expensive with each passing year. In the past, Disney's also attributed their decline in demand due to the current inflation situation, and Iger credited the strong dollar, meaning goods exported by the US that are relatively pricier for international consumers to buy, as a big hindrance for their international guests currently. With everyday expenses costing more for average Americans, everything from groceries to gas to rent, it's likely that travel isn't as much of a priority for folks. That being said, Disney's price hikes that are going beyond inflation really aren't helping out their case either. In a recent study comparing Disney World price increases to the rate of inflation over time, some popular Disney World food items have increased by an average of 61% since 2014, while the rate of inflation has increased just 32%. That means that prices for Disney Eats have been increasing at almost double the pace of inflation. Compared to the park ticket price changes, food prices are increasing at a higher rate, though park ticket prices have still increased by 56% over the last 10 years, and just this past October, we saw thousands of price increases hitting the Disney World scene again. Disney World raised the prices on numerous restaurants, including those with pre-fixed menus like Tusker House and Disney's Animal Kingdom, and Beer Garden, Acre Juice, and Garden Grill and Epcot. Additionally, loads of items across all four parks got a bump in price overnight. These food items include things like Mickey pretzels increased from $7.79 to $7.99, popcorn went from $5.50 to $6, and regular drinks from $4.49 to $4.79. Looks like just a tiny price increase, right? But remember, we've been seeing tiny price increases consistently for these things over the course of several years now, so just to put things in perspective, a Mickey pretzel with cheese back in 2013 would cost you $4.29, so we're spending over $3 more for it now. And this is on top of the increase we were already seeing for 2025 park tickets, as well as the highest price increases we've seen for multi-pass lightning lanes to date. But why? Why is Disney continuing to do this even though they know it upsets their guests and could potentially outprice families? Well, it's a vicious cycle, and it really all still does stem from inflation and recovery after the 2020 closures. Lost revenue and pricier food supplies mean businesses have to sell their products for more, but as product prices increase and the economy still feels shaky, consumers pull back and save their money where they can. And that means Disney's gotta come up with a way to keep funding future projects that they've already set money aside for as well as making a decent revenue from the guests who are choosing to vacation in their parks. That means they gotta mark up the prices even higher for those continuing to walk through their gates. It's also important to note that in recent Disney reports, attendance might be flatlining, but the parks are still finding ways to increase their revenue regardless. During the fourth quarter earnings call, Disney revealed that the company had record revenue and operating income for the full year, and after looking into it, it's easy to see why. Operating income for Disney's domestic parks increased by 5% year over year, and much of that can be attributed to the fans and park guests. This is where all those extra plus-up experiences available for guests to purchase to help guests out with their Disney vacation really start to fatten up Disney's wallet, including convenient premium features like multi and single passes, park hopper add-ons, magic band plus, Disney dining plans, etc. And that means thanks to all these extras and above inflation price increases, Disney's making enough money to turn over a profit despite these higher costs. And that has nothing to do with increased attendance, but everything to do with how much more we're spending inside the parks. More money from fewer guests has been a goal of Disney's ever since the pandemic. That's why they call it yield, and likely even longer than that, because that's just good business. Fortunately, Disney still has non-peak season times where their surge prices tend to drop as well as frequent savings opportunities that the company parades over their special offers, deals, and discounts page featured on the website. But that doesn't mean a Disney trip becomes not expensive, even with these types of savings. So when you combine Disney World's higher prices plus the construction-heavy areas that we'll be seeing throughout 2025, the appeal of investing in a Disney World trip might be a whole lot less, and future Disney World guests might wind up using this 2025 period to start creating a budget for a future trip instead, helping them pace out those hefty payments in a way that won't bog them down with a whole lot of financial stress in the end. Or they might be choosing to invest in a different trip altogether. Speaking of which, you knew we had to talk about this one, right? On May 22, 2025, Universal Orlando will be officially opening its third theme park gate, Epic Universe. And the crowd goes wild. This new park will be made up of five immersive lands, Celestial Park, The Wizarding World of Harry Potter, Ministry of Magic, Super Nintendo World, How to Train Your Dragon, Isle of Berk, and Dark Universe. On top of this park opening, Universal will also be opening up three new hotels, Universal Helios Grand Hotel, which will boast its very own entrance into Epic Universe, and Stellanova and Terra Luna, which will be two more affordable options near the new park. This is something that Universal desperately need, a spike in appeal. I know we talk a lot about Disney's earnings calls, but on a similar note, Universal's earnings calls have also noted a significant decrease of attendance and revenue this year across their domestic parks due to similar factors that Disney's also experienced, like the death of Revenge Travel and the overall lull of nothing much happening in these parks in 2024, other than a new parade, nighttime shows, and a little DreamWorks area expansion for the kids, there hasn't been much. But much like 2025 will be the year of prep and construction for Disney World, that was what Universal's been doing throughout 2024, getting ready for these major park and hotel openings. So in a way, I guess you could say these major theme park competitors are taking turns, gaining mass appeal, and 2025 will be Universal's turn to carry that torch of intrigue. Don't worry all you Team Universal fans out there, DFE will be releasing lots of new videos to help you plan for your Epic Universe vacation once it opens this May, so stay tuned and we'll make sure you're set up for success, whether you stay inside the Disney bubble or venture outside of it. Now Disney's been shifting a lot of focus toward their cruise line lately, and a lot of money. So even if things might be pretty quiet on the Disney World home front, Disney fans might be thinking about vacationing with the mouse in a whole different way come 2025. Back in May, when Disney CFO Hugh Johnston was talking about the $60 billion going into Disney's experiences industry, he commented briefly on the parks, but then shifted the attention over to Disney Cruise Line. He said that Disney's cruise division is one that has an enormous number of opportunities for Disney over time, so they're leaning more heavily into that business with new ships and routes. And we've already seen that happening in 2024, with Disney's brand new vacation destination in the Bahamas, Lookout Cay at Lighthouse Point, which opened June 6th, as well as the new Disney Treasure cruise ship, which is about to take its maiden voyage on December 21st. But in 2025, we're also going to be seeing two more cruise ships added to the Disney fleet. The Disney Destiny will set sail on November 20th, 2025, offering four- and five-night cruises to the Bahamas and Western Caribbean during her inaugural season, with voyages stopping at one or both of Disney Cruise Line's destinations, Castaway Cay or Lookout Cay. Now this cruise ship will be inspired by Disney's greatest heroes and villains. And then the Disney Adventure will come around as Disney's seventh cruise ship and start setting sail out of Singapore on December 15th, 2025. This will be Disney's first-ever cruise to sail from Singapore and throughout Southeast Asia, offering three- and four-night voyages in a ship themed around all things storytelling, with emphasis on popular Disney, Pixar, and Marvel tales such as Big Hero 6 and Iron Man, Toy Story, and more. But even looking beyond the shiny new additions promised by the cruise line, guests might be looking to take more Disney cruises in 2025 for simplicity's sake. Unlike a theme park that's more ride-focused and has you walking 20,000-plus steps each day, Disney cruises give you the opportunity to take your vacation as easygoing or as adventure-driven as you want to, while still being completely immersed in the Disney whimsy. Plus, you'll get to explore overseas ports of call that you might have never been to before, like the Bahamas or New Zealand and Australia, Europe, Alaska, so many other places that you've been meaning to check off your bucket list but just haven't had the chance to. If you want to learn even more about how Disney's cruise ships work, from the dining, to the entertainment, to the staterooms, to the destinations, and even to what you should be packing in preparation for a vacation out at sea, go ahead and scan the QR code you see on the screen now or head to disneyfoodblog.com slash cruise planning. We're going to send you our free ultimate guide to the Disney cruise line straight to your email. Despite the numerous reasons why Disney World could be empty in 2025, it could also completely shock us with an influx of guests at specific times throughout the next year. So let's take a look at those possibilities so you're not thrown off guard if it does happen during your next visit. New stuff is still on the horizon. Yeah, yeah, I know I mentioned that the big Disney World openings aren't going to be happening in 2025 and they're not, but that doesn't mean nothing's coming to Disney World in 2025. In Magic Kingdom, a new nighttime parade called Disney Starlight will roll its way onto the scene by summer 2025 with illuminating floats featuring some of Disney's most iconic movies like Encanto, Moana, Peter Pan, and Pinocchio. Disney said the parade would be using the latest technology to tell stories about these classic characters. There's also going to be a brand new Pirates of the Caribbean tavern coming to Magic Kingdom over in Adventureland. This lounge will be a first-of-its-kind experience that will extend the story of Pirates of the Caribbean. The tavern's going to bring together pirates of all ages as well as the Barker Bird, who used to greet guests at the Pirates of the Caribbean ride. He'll now make his grand return over at this new tavern. That's going to open sometime in 2025. And Epcot, a brand new version of Test Track will be opening later on in 2025. The new version of the ride is expected to look at past, present, and future tech advancements to show how our lifestyles and relationships to mobility connect everyone. And Spaceship Earth will be getting its own lounge in 2025, not inside the but somewhere nearby, which will feature colors and design elements all inspired by this epic park icon. And yes, we will be thanking the Phoenicians. In Hollywood Studios, Lightning McQueen's Racing Academy has closed to make room for a brand new villains show coming in summer 2025, because Disney's very much in their villain era right now. This show will transform the theater into the mysterious, reflective realm of the Magic Mirror. So expect to see some classic Disney villains like Cruella de Vil, Captain Hook, Maleficent, and more breaking through the glass to come on stage and threaten us with a good time. Hollywood Studios is also getting a brand new Little Mermaid stage show, yay for more live entertainment, that will replace the closed Voyage of the Little Mermaid show, which has been closed ever since 2020. The new show will feature puppets, digital animation, and live motion capture all blended together to replicate the story's underwater setting. The story will also be retold almost entirely from Ariel's point of view and will feature two songs that weren't in the previous show. Now this was supposed to open in fall of 2024 but has been delayed to summer 2025. Over in Animal Kingdom, It's Tough to Be a Bug, which is inside the park's icon, the Tree of Life, will be headed out for good and replaced by a brand new show, Zootopia Better Zoogether. The new show will follow some of our fave Zootopia characters like Judy Hopps and Nick Wilde in a production that will take guests on an adventure through different biomes as seen in the film. This new show is set to debut in winter 2025. Now you might be seeing a trend here. Per the release of this video, we don't have any concrete dates set for any of these new openings. And if The Little Mermaid's date show didn't illustrate it enough already, Disney has been known to push back dates when needed if construction's not on schedule. So before you plan a whole vacation around one or several of these new offerings, wait till you find out about those exact opening timelines, which we'll make sure to update you on once we hear more about them ourselves. And some new stuff is already here. If you didn't have the chance to come out to Disney World this year, then you might be swinging by the parks in 2025 to check out all the new stuff that was released in 2024. On June 28th, Tiana's Bayou Adventure opened in Frontierland. While this is a re-theme of the former Splash Mountain flume ride with a new story centered around characters from Princess and the Frog, it still retains the attraction's signature 50-foot splashdown drop. Also in Frontierland, those beloved Country Bears have put together an all-new act, now called the Country Bear Musical Jamboree, which opened on July 17th. Over in Epcot, Communicore Hall and Plaza opened this past summer, June 10th, to serve as the new home base for Epcot's seasonal festivals and live events. We're still not sure exactly how they're supposed to be used, but we're hoping that they get used a little bit more than they were for food and wine. We'll see. Communicore Hall is also the new location of a year-round Mickey and Friends meet-and-greet. On April 5th, New Adventures made their debut in Star Tours at Hollywood Studios, along with Disneyland Resort and Disneyland Paris. They feature new-to-the-ride characters and locations from Ahsoka, Andor, and The Mandalorian, so now guests can experience over 250 possible ride variations on this 4D attraction. The Cake Bake Shop by Gwendolyn Rogers has finally opened at Disney's Boardwalk Inn. This new table service restaurant serves brunch, lunch, and dinner, featuring both sweet and savory menus and a whole lot of edible glitter. And soon, very soon, at Disney's Polynesian Village Resort, the new DVC Island Tower will be debuting on December 17th. The island tower will feature a 10-story tower with villas that sleep two to nine people, including studios, one- and two-bedroom villas, and two-bedroom penthouse villas. These villas will also have water view options, access to a new pool and beach, a new nearby restaurant to walk to called by Lulubar and Grill, and according to Disney, this place will finally complete the vision created by Disney Imagineers decades ago while embracing the rich culture from the Polynesian Islands. So here's a big factor you might not have considered about Disney World's next year. There is a possibility that Epic Universe just might help improve Disney World's overall attendance when it opens in 2025. During the Q4 earnings call on November 14th, Disney executives, including Bob Iger, were asked about Epic Universe and how they expected this park's opening to impact their crowd levels. And what the Disney execs quickly pointed out was how we can look back on history and see that Universal's openings have never really hurt Disney, but have helped it out. When Universal Studios Florida first opened in 1990 and Universal's Islands of Adventure opened in 1999, these openings actually benefited Disney's bookings and overall numbers around that same time, with many travelers extending their Florida vacations to add time to visit their parks as well, instead of just skipping Disney entirely. It's the whole a rising tide lifts all boats, right? But this isn't the first time Disney has expressed that they're not afraid of losing out to Universal in the end. Earlier this year, Iger admitted that Disney has been aware of Universal's plans for years and had built attractions including Star Wars Galaxy's Edge, Pandora the World of Avatar, Toy Story Land, Tron Light Cycle Run, Mickey and Minnie's Runaway Railway, and the reimagining of Epcon as a staggered way to beef the parks in preparation. And I know Disney dropped that info for us to prove how dedicated they've been to bracing themselves against this competition, but what it's also showing me is that Disney's seen behind the Epic Universe veil and knew they needed to step up their game. And that means this new park really must be about to live up to its Epic title if it caused Disney to spend all these years just planning around its release. So is Epic Universe really going to help Disney repeat history? Only time will tell, but it's not totally out of the realm of possibility for future guests to choose both theme park competitors instead of having to choose one or the other during their 2025 visit, but guess what that's going to mean? A more expensive trip. Now whether you're planning on heading to Disney World next year or you're holding out for the years to come, the DFB team and I will be here and in the parks to help you out and keep you updated on all the new offerings and changing on the horizon. Oh, and don't forget to pick up our free Disney Cruise Line guide just in case you're looking for a break away from the parks or you're just flat out curious to see how the cruise line works over at disneyfoodblog.com slash cruise planning. Thanks for listening everyone and thanks for watching. Let us know in the comments what you think about the potential for Disney's crowds next year. As always, this is AJ for Disney Food Blog, and we'll see you real soon.