Where will mortgage rates go in 2025?

Mortgage rates ticking lower as we head toward the end of the year. The 30-year fixed rate now at 6.69%, according to Freddie Mac. But could a new year bring new rates? Here with her 2025 housing outlook is Nina Gidwani. She is a Chase Home Lending Head of Refinance and Home Equity. So, Nina, let's start there. On mortgage rates, will buyers finally see some relief in 2025? Well, it's great to be here and thanks for having me. We hope that we'll see some relief in 2025. Of course, we can't predict where rates will go. I can tell you that if rates were to fall below six percent, about 4.7 million customers would become in the money for refinance. And of course, it would really open up the purchase market as well and help prospective homebuyers get into the market. So we do hope that we'll see some additional rallying in 2025. So, Nina, I know you can't predict rates, but is there any type of floor, any type of ceiling, especially when we consider factors like the Federal Reserve? There could be a higher for longer policy stance from the Fed, along with the incoming Trump administration. If there's any policy changes that we could see there, what are you looking at? Well, we're you know, we're looking at everything that is coming out right now. A lot of the economic indicators around unemployment and inflation that even just today's jobs report. But, you know, we we are not opining on any specific policies. Our key here is to remain available for customers who are looking to get into a home buying situation or they're looking to refinance. And right now, affordability is a challenge for many customers. And so we're very focused on making sure that we can help alleviate some of those challenges and also educate customers, make sure they're financially prepared to to enter the home buying market if they choose to do that. I mentioned the Trump campaign, and we know that one of his campaign promises has been mass deportations. What's the pull through impact that could have on the housing market, especially when we think about things like the construction labor force? You know, I think our main focus is as on making sure that home buyers can be prepared to get into the market when they're ready. We're not really focused on any specific policies. But again, our focus has been to work very closely with every single administration and to make the goal and the dream of homeownership a reality for as many customers as possible. And, you know, we really just want to make sure that customers can enter the market when they're ready and that, you know, things like home buyer grants and assistance programs are available for customers who are looking to alleviate the cost of homeownership in the current market. It's often been categorized as locked in, priced out. In other words, people aren't leaving their homes because they're locked into these ultra low mortgage rates. And that's pushing up the prices of these homes, which has led to the affordability crisis. So how can that supply and demand story change? Is it more buyers coming into the market? How are you looking at the different housing dynamics? Here's how we're thinking about it. Obviously, you know, with the recent rallying in October, September, October, and, you know, the Fed cutting their their rate by about 50 basis points that created some alleviation in the in the refinance rates and also purchase rates. And we saw some good momentum in that period of time. And that helped to open up this sort of equation for customers looking to enter, as well as customers looking to refinance. So we would expect that, you know, as customers continue to get more comfortable with more elevated rates, that they may be willing to get out of the lock in effect that you mentioned, Alexandra, that if they're sitting on an ultra low rate, that they may be willing to trade that for a higher rate in order to be able to move and switch into a different home. That will then create more inventory and more opportunities for prospective homebuyers to get into the market. But a lot of this will generally be very rate driven into into the next into the next year. And we'll see how things change in 2025. Nina Gidwani, thank you so much for your insights. Thank you.