Corelogic’s New Real Estate Predictions through Sept 2025

With mortgage rates on the rise once again and home prices up from last year, what will happen to the U.S. housing market through 2025? In today's video I'll share all the details including a new article from CoreLogic which shares the latest housing market forecast including the five cities in which they believe home prices will decrease the most over the next 12 months. I'm excited to share today's video with you guys but first if you guys haven't subscribed just yet I invite you to do so because I post frequent housing market updates so you guys can be more informed. With that said I have a lot to share in today's video and thank you so much for joining me and let's begin. This housing market forecast is again from CoreLogic just posted on November 5th which was yesterday at the time of filming this video. So let's first talk about what happened over the previous 12 months. This report covers the month of September and the forecast goes through September next year. So home prices nationwide including distressed home sales increased year-over-year by 3.4 percent in September 2024 of course compared to September last year. Here's something that caught my attention though because I've been making this video for years now. So looking at the year-over-year change in home prices, this is by the way based on their or their home price index. Back in July the year-over-year change, this is July this year compared to July last year, was a gain of 4.3 percent. Then in August the gain decreased to 3.9 percent. Now in September it's only at 3.4 percent. Therefore home price growth is slowing down at least over the past few months. In my personal opinion this is due to elevated rates but also due to elevated home prices and also frankly as well an increase of inventory as well. Depending on the source of the data inventory is up by about 15 to about 35 percent on a year-over-year basis on a national level. Of course every market's different. There's eight states right now that have more house for sale as of the end of October compared to October of 2019. Whereas areas in California, the Northeast, parts of Midwest have a lack of house for sale compared to pre-pandemic era. In any case I want to share their forecast with you guys right now. So I want to share their forecast from one month ago or one year ago I should say to see how close they were. So this is posted on November 7th last year. Their forecast from September last year through September this year was a gain of 2.6 percent and again home prices increased by 3.4 percent. So quite a bit lower than what actually happened. Here's their forecast though. Their forecast is calling for a gain of up by 2.3 percent year-over-year and then for home prices a decrease by 0.1 percent compared to the previous month. And that of course is a decrease of 0.1 percent from September this year through October 2024. Then the year-over-year increase to be only 2.3 percent through September of 2025. And that obviously is quite a bit lower than the gains we saw over the past 12 months. In other words home price growth basically slowing down due to the rapid rise in inventory, elevated rates, and of course elevated home prices as well. Here's what the chief economist for Collagic had to say. Like much of the housing market at the moment home prices remain relatively flat coming into the fall. I would say this is talking about the year-over-year change has been relatively flat and it's been pretty flat basically all year. The changes in home prices according to Redfin for example is up by about three to five percent all year despite some improved affordability from lower mortgage rates during August. We also saw that in the early part of September by the way home buyers mostly kept on the sidelines and decided to wait out the mortgage rate drop for a potentially better opportunity next year when the current volatility I mean volatility right now is an understatement. Uncertainty surrounding the election's outcome this is posted again yesterday prior to the election and the impact on long-term rates may be slightly clearer. And while the mortgage rate and economic outlook is full of questions home prices are likely to maintain their leveled path until early next year when buyers return to the housing market. I think what she's saying here is that it's more normal to see home prices kind of decrease so we should expect that for the remainder of the year. Now having said that let's take a look at some leading indications of home buying demand. Let's first have a look at showingtime.com. They measure the amount of real estate showings across across North America. The only look at of course lock boxes they have. In other words if I'm showing a house and I'm using a lock box that's not showing time or not using their services then of course it won't be recorded. So this snapshot is not perfect but kind of provides a general look at the amount of real estate showings across North America. The orange line is this year. The line right below that the dark line is 2023. 2021 is above and of course 2022 is just below the bottom line there. So for the week ended November 5th this year real estate showings are down by six percent compared to the first week this year. Last year's time we were down by 18 percent compared to the first week last year. In contrast we're down a whopping 29.9 percent in 2022 compared to the start of the year and 21 we're up by 3.4 percent. In other words the decline this year is actually better than the past couple of years but much worse than 2021. Also let's have a look at google trends looking at people searching for the term homes for sale. So they search term or the index I should say for the week ended November 9th. This is a partial snapshot looking at this. The index is at 65. The way to look at this chart is that an index of 100 means the peak number of google searches for the search term again homes for sale. That occurred of course in July when our housing market is kind of more or less in full swing. So at 65 right now one year ago's time it was at 77. So this means the interest over time over the past 12 months for homes for sale has been decreasing or has decreased by 16 percent year over year. And ever since June and July we have been seeing a seasonal decrease in the amount of people who are interested in looking at houses for sale online. Now having said that here's something I shared kind of some news regarding application numbers. This is according to the MBA but it's on the mortgage news daily's website and of course I provide a link in the video description below for all the sources I go for my videos. So I just want to share this let's actually look at the five-year chart. These are amount of people who are submitting loan applications to buy houses using loans which is called their purchase index which is seasonally adjusted. So over the past five years let me just get rid of rates. So over the past five years you can see here a strong decrease of application numbers especially starting in mid-2022 when rates increased from 3.4 to about five percent. Then of course when rates hit seven percent back in late October of course application numbers decreased greatly. Then we hit again around eight percent nearly eight percent in October 2023 which of course kept application numbers at relatively low levels. So looking at the one-year chart you can see this is actually not updated compared to the report that was actually just announced today but we're at about 130 right now which is higher compared to one year ago but you can see here application numbers have been relatively flat all year. What this means to me is that there's a low level of application numbers of course therefore this means that we should expect to see a low level of closed home sales for people using loans over the coming months as well. That's due to this but also due to the fact that we're kind of getting to the slow season where real estate transactions kind of slow down anyways. All right getting back to CoreLogic's housing market forecast let's look at what they had to say one year ago because look at this Idaho, Montana, Utah, Washington DC, and Wyoming all saw home prices decrease compared to the previous year. Now look at the map now so this is September this year this is September 2023. So the map right now there's only one state that posted a decrease from one year ago. Something I just can't stand about this article from CoreLogic it says here only one state posted an annual home price decrease but they don't even mention what that state is. In the chart below here the states in dark blue are of course less than one percent that's Texas and Hawaii. This means of course that it could be a gain of 0.1 percent to 0.9 percent or a decrease of less than one percent right or less than zero percent. So I'm guessing that the state that posted a decrease is actually in Texas because one month ago we had Hawaii, Texas, and Louisiana of a decrease of one percent but there was only one state that fell on a year basis. So I'm guessing that Texas due to a glut of inventory in any case it's kind of frustrating why they don't even mention what the state is it's down but here's what they do mention though they mention the top 10 states that posted the biggest increases though. So Rhode Island led the nation up by 9.1 percent then we have New Jersey, Illinois, Newark, Wisconsin, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, and Connecticut. One thing I noticed here is that most of these states are areas located in the Midwest or the Northeast where they have a lack of house for sale from 2019 unlike Texas, Florida, Tennessee, Utah, Colorado, Washington, and Oregon for example. In regards to 10 metros they closely follow here's their map from one year ago looking at home price changes from September 22 through September of 2023. What really catches my attention is that Miami, Florida, I've been making this video for years now but Miami was the biggest gain has been the biggest gain for quite some time but Las Vegas was down by 0.3 percent, Phoenix barely squeaked out a gain up by 0.6 percent, and Denver and Houston were up by less than 1.6 percent. Look at the map now though Las Vegas has posted a big gain up by 6.1 quite a bit different compared to the only or the decrease of 0.3 percent one year ago. Phoenix is up by 2.1, Denver and Houston are barely squeaking out a gain still, Denver up by 0.9, and Houston up by 1.4 percent. San Diego is still up by 4.7, one year ago is at 5.9, but also Chicago, Washington DC, and Boston were up by more than 4 percent and now same thing Chicago is now up by 6.7, Washington 4.7, and Boston up by 4.6. Miami is up by 6.8 percent though. And lastly let's have a look at the top five metros in which CoreLogic believes home prices will decrease the most through September of 2025. Those markets are the Provo, Utah area, a number two spot is Atlanta, Georgia, then Salt Lake City, Utah, Gainesville, Florida, and rounding out the top five is Palm Bay, Melbourne, Florida, all with a very high probability that home prices will decrease over the next 12 months. With that said please like and subscribe, of course share all my videos on your social media, any video you guys want. I appreciate the support, have an amazing day, and we'll see you next video.