The Top Five Stocks Of 2024

Coin Crunch
7 followers
Nov 15, 2024
"00:00 Intro
01:18 Best Stocks In 2024
20:30 Spotify Earnings Analysis
23:30 Apple Next Big Device
25:33 Amazon's New Discount Store
28:05 Disney Earnings Preview"
If you've invested well in 2024, your portfolio has done well.
In fact, a lot of our portfolios have done well.
So it's great to know that the market's going up.
Many of us are reaching all new highs with our portfolio and investing.
This is what investing is all about.
It's about the bull markets, the times where stocks go up, where we make money,
where we make progress.
But over this market, over the past 12 months, there have been some companies
that have done a bit better than the rest.
There's some that have done exceptionally well.
And today we're going to be looking at five of them.
Five of the best performing stocks in 2024.
And what made these stocks go so nuts?
What made these stocks just explode in 2024?
And we're going to be going over all five of these stocks that have gone up
hundreds of percentages.
Now, we also have a bunch of other news to get to.
It's been a very busy week.
Spotify reported their earnings.
They blew away their expectations.
The stock is up huge this year.
We're going to be looking at this one.
And why I still think that Spotify is a decent bet.
Apple's next big device, an AI wall tablet.
Will this be successful?
We'll be discussing.
Amazon just debuted their new competitive storefront to Taimou and Xin.
It's called Amazon Hall.
We'll be taking a look at it here.
And tomorrow morning, we have Disney reporting earnings.
I'll be going over my expectation of what I think will happen with their earnings.
Now, we start off with 2024.
2024 so far has been an incredible year for the market.
There's been opportunity.
Opportunity to make a lot of money.
If you're not making money in this market, you're doing something wrong.
It's not the market's fault.
It's not other investors' fault.
You're doing something wrong if you're not making a lot of money.
Because there has been ample opportunity.
The major indices are up mid-20 percentages.
That's good in and of itself.
But there's been many even better opportunities with individual companies.
Now, I've had a great year between both of my portfolios.
I have a list of companies I consider big winners this year.
Holding onto Texas Roadhouse all year long has been a great decision.
It's up around 67%.
Buying more into Netflix at the start of the year has been one of the better decisions I made.
That one's up close to 80% this year.
Buying into Booking Holdings has also worked out really well.
It's surging to all-time highs.
Even Salesforce is now surging to all-time highs.
So I have a list of companies that I've made big concentrated bets into,
and I'm proud of the way that they've turned out.
But they're not the very best performing in the market.
And that's rarely the case.
As an individual stock picker,
you can't expect to pick the best stocks in the market every single year.
That's just a bit unrealistic.
But the stocks that we're going to highlight here
are five of the best performing stocks in the entire world.
The first one we're going to go into is Kava.
This is one that has been a shockingly good performer.
Now, this is in my wheelhouse.
I cover quick service restaurants.
I invest in quick service restaurants.
I made a bunch of money investing in Chipotle for a relatively short amount of time.
Kava is one that I always looked at when I was covering Chipotle.
It was a company that I saw as a smaller competitor,
but Kava lacks scale.
It's not a highly scaled company.
It's a little bit more of a newer company,
but they are rapidly expanding.
Now, the share price here has increased by 295% year to date.
In 2024, it's gone up nearly 300%.
What is Kava doing?
What is going on here?
The CEO of Kava was asked about the surging stock price.
What do they think of it?
They're watching the stock go up 300%.
What is his thoughts?
That's a very mature answer.
Don't focus too much on the stock price.
Focus on the business and the fundamentals.
But secretly, he has to be very happy that the stock is up 300%.
That's something to celebrate.
Now, for those of you that may not be aware,
Kava is a Mediterranean food company.
They sell the Mediterranean bowls.
So, they're like another healthy bowl company.
There's a number of them.
And there's questions as to why Kava demands such a high valuation.
The company's currently at an $18.4 billion valuation,
and they're only doing revenues of around $900 million.
So, the price to sales is $20 for Kava.
A price to sales of $20.
If we look at this compared to Chipotle, which is not cheap.
Chipotle is not cheap.
I sold the company because it was too expensive.
The price to sales for Chipotle is $7.5.
So, consider the fact that I sold Chipotle,
believing that it's more on the expensive side of things.
And it's trading at a price to sales that's one third of Kava.
Kava is not just expensive.
It's extraordinarily expensive when you consider almost any piece of data.
It's expensive on a store basis.
A normal Chipotle store on average is around $12 million.
Kava's are now being valued at around $30 plus million.
To justify a $30 plus million valuation per each Kava location
requires a lot of forward growth assumptions.
And the CEO talks about his growth assumptions here.
Our goal is 1,000 restaurants by 2032,
which basically implies a 15% plus compound annual unit growth rate.
This year, we've been able to exceed that a little bit.
We raised our guidance to 56 to 58 new restaurants.
So, closer to 17, 18%.
And we gave preliminary guidance for next year of at least 17% plus
given the health and strength of our real estate pipeline.
He said that his goal is 1,000 restaurants,
but when did he say that goal was for?
Let me rewind there.
By 2032.
So, Kava's ambitious growth goal is to have 1,000 locations by 2032.
If we look at Chipotle as just a reference here,
again, because the companies are very similar with the products they sell.
Chipotle has a total location count of 3,600.
So, by 2032, Kava is projecting to have around one fourth
the locations of Chipotle, while it's around one fourth the market cap.
So, what investors are doing here is pretty simple.
They're just projecting out Chipotle-like growth over the next six or seven years.
Now, this may work for Kava investors.
I can see the logic here.
They're just projecting that it will have the same success as Chipotle.
Now, keep in mind, Chipotle has had astronomically good success.
So, you're benchmarking Kava today,
pricing in the success of a company that's had astronomically good success.
Investors in Kava are convinced that this is the next Chipotle.
Now, whether it turns out to be one or not, we'll have to wait and see.
Now, moving on to the next one,
we get to a stock that has had a rise that is truly striking.
This is one of the most incredible performances of any stock of any year,
and it's Carvana.
Don't be fooled by it being down 1% on the day.
Carvana is up 400% year-to-date.
That's correct.
400% flat.
Now, this is a stock that I have to rewind a little bit and give some perspective here.
Carvana has done the U-turn.
If we look over the past five years, you see they had an epic 2021 rise.
It was in a bubble during that time period,
and then the stock came cratering down as they had really no cash flows.
A lot of people thought they were going to go bankrupt.
I was amongst one of them that thought that this is a business model
that strikes me as one that very well could go bankrupt.
Not one that I think is predictable at all, but Carvana pulled it off.
Their team really turned this thing around, which is incredible to see.
It's doing a bit of a half-pipe formation here.
I don't know if that's really a thing.
I'm not a technical analyst, but it's surging back up to the price it was in 2021.
So, I look at a company like Carvana.
This is one that almost everyone just a couple years ago thought was going bankrupt.
They thought it was a fake company.
The thing that I saw highlighted time and time again
were the vending machine for cars that Carvana built.
These towers full of cars, this isn't just a concept.
These are real.
Carvana really built these.
I have one in a neighboring city.
And some of them, they have more stories than others.
They're taller than others.
They're actually kind of cool, but it looks like a vending machine for cars.
The company was crashing in 2022.
A lot of traders made bets against the company that were successful.
And there's a lot of talk about Carvana that the company's not even real,
that it's a fraud, that it's made up, that their profits aren't real.
But they are audited.
And the company so far seems like it's making real money.
The revenue has halted its downward trend.
It's now trending back upwards.
The free cash flows also went from heavily in the red,
losing billions of dollars per quarter,
to now actually being positive on a free cash flow basis.
They really turned this thing around.
So, how did Carvana pull this off?
How did they go from being a company that lost money every single day,
every month they're burning cash, to now one that's profitable?
And especially, how did they get to a point where their margins per car sale
are around double the average car dealership?
And the CEO of Carvana was asked this very question.
How are they so profitable?
And he answers it here.
Without execution, your profit per vehicle,
gross profit per vehicle is greater than $7,400,
well above what analysts were expecting.
$7,400 of gross profits per vehicle.
The most a car dealership tries to make,
it's like $2,000, $2,500.
So, Carvana is either doing something fraudulently,
or they figured something out.
Sure. Well, I think the fancy word we use for that is vertical integration.
But I think when most consumers go to a dealership and buy a car,
probably the car they're buying was traded in at a different dealership.
It was transported to an auction.
There was an auction that made money.
It was transported to a dealer.
It sat there for a while.
The dealer made money.
It was financed with a third-party finance company.
There's maybe 10 to 30 different software providers
that are making money in the transaction.
So, there's a lot of hands in the transaction.
I think what we've built over the last 11 years is a totally new system.
Generally, we're buying cars directly from our customers.
We're doing all the work ourselves.
We're selling it to our customers.
We're the finance company.
It's all our own systems.
And that means simpler experiences for our customers.
It means a great deal for them.
And it means we have the opportunity to make more money.
So, it's a true win-win.
But it's been a lot of work to get to this spot.
And we're proud to see it showing up in the numbers.
He doesn't duck this question.
He just gave a very thorough answer as to why their margins are higher
than the average car dealership.
Now, even with that answer, people are not so convinced.
A lot of people still stating that it's a fraud.
In the YouTube comments, the only comments that exist
are accusing Carvana of being a fraud.
But when I listen to the CEO's answer, to me, that passes the smell test.
I don't sense anything fraudulent about his answer.
And in fact, I think it's just the most sensible answer.
He explains that normal car dealerships are completely ineffective.
They're not efficient.
There's lots of software they're paying for.
Different vendors, different lenders, all with different terms.
The slowness of the entire process makes the whole ordeal more expensive.
So, car dealerships, in the end, aren't earning as much money
as they could be otherwise.
With Carvana, what they've done is they've basically removed a ton of middlemen,
making it so that they have more margins in the process.
And this is the blueprint that many great companies follow.
They don't reinvent the wheel.
They just do something in a more efficient manner.
So, when I look at Carvana,
I think a lot of people are complaining that they missed out on the gains
or they're complaining that their short thesis isn't working.
So, they just reverted to calling the company fraudulent
with no evidence to back it up.
But so far, what I see is a great recovery from a company
that's finally proving its business model.
And as a result, they're now up 400% year-to-date.
An incredible thing to see.
Now, the next one is one that has gone up even more than Kava.
Even more than Carvana.
Yes, more than 400% year-to-date.
It's, in fact, gone up 600% year-to-date.
It's called Applovin.
Applovin is a company that I haven't heard too much about.
I don't hear it discussed all that often.
And I think part of the reason why is because the product they sell is rather vague.
Basically, what they do is they help developers,
specifically mobile developers, connect to customers.
They basically just help them find customers and advertise.
Now, this is a market that was clearly underserved
because Applovin went into this category
and they helped game developers and specifically gaming apps
make a bunch more money by finding different customers through AI.
Now, again, this stock is up 642% year-to-date.
Just incredible.
When we zoom out five years,
this is also one that hasn't gone through a big U-shaped recovery.
It's had a little bit of one.
But no, it's just up a lot this year.
The company's simply growing and compounding almost in orders of magnitude.
Now, when I was trying to search what Applovin actually does,
I went to the website, I read about the products,
and everything was described very vague in simple marketing terms.
We help you connect to customers.
But what does that actually mean?
Where I found the actual best description of what this company does
is from the CEO himself in the earnings transcript.
This is on an earnings call.
If you're not aware, on Qualtrim,
we have all the earnings calls of different companies.
You just type in the ticker symbol, it brings up the quarters.
And then you have the text format of what happened here.
When I read through the CEO here responding to a question,
the question was basically,
how are you guys different than The Trade Desk?
The Trade Desk is a company that helps you sell advertisements,
helps you set up advertisements and optimize them.
Applovin seems like it does the same thing,
but the CEO here outlines that they really don't.
They're not doing the same thing
because of key differences in their strategy.
He says, yeah, I guess more specifically,
you're referencing Trade Desk versus our business models.
Like, it's just two different approaches to the market.
They've targeted big agencies
and taken a very smart software-as-a-service type of approach.
And we've targeted brands and direct-to-consumer
and e-commerce, gaming, game developers.
And what these companies care about
is not media dollars or percentage markups.
They care about optimization
and automated advertising to a revenue goal.
And that's really like what our system's predicated on
is that we take all the risk on the media side.
We have to deliver really compelling performance
on the technology side.
And I guess like what's most exciting for me
on what we've built and where we are in terms of,
like you said, market cap on the scale of the business today
is we're on top of 1.4 billion daily actives.
We've got the largest mediation solution in the sector
and our teams have built
maybe the most innovative advertising technology
that the world's yet seen.
And we're now scaling it out.
And so if you're sort of just fast forwarding
over the quarters and years from here,
we're going to be able to offer services
to tens of thousands, to hundreds of thousands,
to millions of advertisers on our platform
to access this audience that they've never accessed before.
And now mobile devices,
you think about four hours to five hours a day of time spent,
this is a 45 minute component of that four hours
that is untapped for most of these advertisers.
Our technology can now unlock it for them.
There's the sales pitch for AppLovin.
That's the reason that these companies are using them.
If you spent a bunch of time developing a game
and you want to get exposure to it,
you want to get people signed up to it
and connect to customers,
they're using artificial intelligence
and using models that nobody else has access to.
And they claim that their models
are way more advanced than other companies.
Other companies aren't even close.
And that's the reason that they can offer
these different type of payment plans
that are based purely on performance.
So AppLovin has quickly raced up
to a $100 billion company,
now up 642% on the year.
So I think this is one that deserves a bit more attention.
Now, next up, we have a stock
that hasn't had quite the year that AppLovin has,
but it's been a great year for Reddit.
Reddit's a company that's rather new to the market
and they're already up 160%.
So Reddit investors are doing great this year.
When I look at Reddit overall,
it feels like one of these companies
that's been around forever,
but somehow is still not mature.
For example, Reddit has been around
for at least a decade, maybe 15, 20 years.
And it has a $23 billion market cap,
making you believe that it's probably a mature company,
probably generating steady cash flows.
That's not really the case.
The PE ratio is 224
because they don't generate really any earnings.
The free cash flow yield is negative
because of course they're losing cash flow
over the trailing 12 months.
Now, if we look at this,
the cash flows are starting to head back up in the positive.
It is $104 million.
When we look at the free cash flow,
compare it against the stock-based comp,
to generate this free cash flow,
they have to dilute the investors like crazy.
And this is something a lot of these companies
try to pretend they're not doing.
They try to say that free cash flow isn't really cash.
So you don't have to worry about that.
Just put it out of your mind.
Don't worry about it.
But that stock-based compensation
is a real expense to the shareholder.
So the company is headed in a right direction,
but it still feels like it has a long ways to go
before it gets to that mature cash flow position.
Now, in terms of Reddit qualitatively,
I can see why the company's valued at $20 billion.
It is a staple of the internet.
It's always there in the Google search results.
People look at Reddit as an authentic place to go
amidst a bunch of AI results.
So I can see it being leveraged and monetized over time.
It doesn't sound crazy to me
that investors are paying mid $20 billion for this stock.
Maybe they'll be wrong,
but if Reddit doesn't figure out how to make a lot of money,
that's on Reddit's management.
Now, finally, we get to a stock
that has rocketed up this year,
especially with the news of a Trump victory.
This one's really taken off
in line with the price of Bitcoin, but even more.
We have MicroStrategy.
Michael Saylor pulled it off.
He has pulled it off.
He's really done it.
MicroStrategy is up 423% year to date.
This company doesn't really make any revenue.
I mean, it makes $100 million,
but that's been flat for years and years.
It's not being valued off of the revenue it makes
or the cash flows it makes.
This is being valued off of their ownership of crypto.
Basically, all that Michael Saylor has done
is strategically taken out debt to leverage up on Bitcoin.
And Bitcoin is the only thing that he buys.
So whether or not he makes a fortune
or whether or not he loses a fortune
is simply based off the price of Bitcoin.
Now, I was warned about this.
Michael Saylor did give us a heads up.
After all, here is a video of him explaining
that this is going to happen.
That was his advice years ago.
And I don't know why I didn't listen to him.
Seems like a very trustworthy, not crazy person.
But either way, he did warn us ahead of time.
If you followed his advice to just sell everything,
everything that's important to you,
just sell it and buy Bitcoin like a year ago,
you'd probably have a lot more money than you do
right now with your investing strategy.
So just think about that.
If you just only bought Bitcoin, you'd be doing better.
Every time I look at this company
with MicroStrategy and Bitcoin,
I'm happy it's doing well.
I have nothing against Bitcoin,
but I still feel better about buying productive assets.
I don't like the asset that I hold,
the value being determined by other people's ability
to pay for it or not.
In the case of crypto or Bitcoin, really any of them,
that's most of the use case.
It's simply a trading item,
something that people buy if they think it's going to go up.
They think they're going to make money.
They sell if they think it's going to go down.
They're going to lose money.
None of it's based off of cash flows.
There's no business model.
There's no product they're selling.
They don't have employees.
They're not generating net income.
And I like that side of things.
I like doing analysis on actual businesses,
not on speculation on whether something
is going to go up or down in value.
But that's just a personal preference.
Either way, Michael Saylor right now
is making a fortune with Bitcoin
and his stock MicroStrategy,
which is leveraged Bitcoin,
of course is up 400% this year.
So that wraps up five of the most explosive stocks
of the year.
Let's go ahead and move on to some news.
Now, the first bit of news we have
is that Spotify just reported their earnings
and the stock is up big, up 12% after earnings.
They beat on their subscribers.
This one's also one that's doing fantastic this year,
up 145%.
And we look at Spotify
and what I see is a great company.
I continue to see a great company.
This is actually one that I held
in my portfolio for a short time.
It's one that I really had a thought
that this is going to be a great asset in the future.
It's going to be worth so much money
because they have such a sticky product
that it appeals to so many users,
600 million plus users.
And they're continuing on.
They just had another subscriber beat
and the stock continues to compound.
Mark Mahaney lays out what he sees
as the biggest factors this quarter.
Well, the subscriber beat was nice.
It was solid.
It was somewhat modest though.
John, I think the real outlier here
and why the stock's up 7%
is we just got record high gross margins
and the guidance, it's 31%.
This is a low gross margin business to begin with,
but 31% gross margins, that's a record high.
And the guidance implies that it's sustainable,
i.e. the next quarter's gross margin guidance
is kind of roughly in line with this quarter.
That's been the overhang issue on Spotify shares
since their offering,
since their listing five years ago.
The business doubled in revenue,
but gross margins never moved.
The stock didn't work.
Then when the gross margins moved,
the stock, we got more evidence of it today.
So we continue to like the stock.
So he continues to like the stock.
It's still one of his top picks
even after the huge surge this year.
And that is someone that doesn't have anchoring bias.
He's not concerned about taking gains.
He's concerned about looking at the current valuation
and what's gonna drive the stock further in the future.
Like I said, at one point,
I did have Spotify in my portfolio,
but I decided to move out of Spotify
and put everything into Netflix
because my opinion was that Netflix
and Spotify are very similar,
but Netflix will have higher margins.
They're a company that has more control over their margins
because they make so much Netflix-made content.
Most of the content on Spotify is owned by other people.
It's owned by the music labels.
So their margins have continual pressure.
Now Spotify continues to overcome these challenges
of the lower margins by growing organically
and doing things to adjust their margins upward,
even though they don't own their music.
For example, they moved into podcasts
and they immediately begin to grow
their podcasts substantially.
They brought on Joe Rogan.
They brought on a lot of top podcast creators,
but now there's such a big podcast platform.
They don't need Joe Rogan.
They don't really need these top creators.
They're just big in and of themselves
without the draw of these top creators.
So Spotify has moved into a category
that's a lot higher margin with podcasts.
They also have some audio book stuff they're doing
and they're pushing more advertisements
to have a little bit better deals with the music labels.
And I think this is going to continue.
Now, even though right now the company still has margins
that are less than half of Netflix,
they're still moving them upwards,
which is positive movement for Spotify.
I still view this company positively as well.
It has traded up a lot.
The market cap has grown a lot,
but I still think Spotify has more to go.
Now, next up, we have news of Apple's next big device.
This is the AI wall tablet.
And Mark Gurman goes over this new device here.
So Apple's next big device is a smart home command center,
a smart home panel, something you might stick on your wall,
like a security system from ADT,
something you may put on your desk,
something that you can use to control your locks,
your lights, your sprinklers,
anything that's in your home
that's connected to HomeKit or Matter.
That's the new smart home system
that works across Apple, Amazon, and Google devices.
It'll have FaceTime.
It'll have audio and video intercoms
for use across your home.
If you have multiple things like this,
you'll be able to tap into Apple Music
to control the music playback
on your speakers throughout the home.
So it's basically a command center
for everything you might want to do in your house,
anything you might want to control in your house.
There's going to be a home security element to it,
a content consumption element to it.
And this is something that can drive Apple hardware sales,
but also Apple services sales,
and sets the stage for further entrance
from Apple into the home.
So we have the description there,
a command center for your home.
And apparently Apple's looking to launch this
as early as May of next year.
Now, when I hear this, I think it's cool.
I think that this might be used by a handful of people,
control their devices,
have a nice little tablet on your wall
that has, you know, you can turn on your lights
and lock your doors, sprinklers, all that.
That could be cool,
but this isn't going to be a game changer.
It's just not something that's going to game change Apple.
And the unfortunate truth is,
if you're an Apple investor at this point,
there's nothing they're ever going to do
that's better than the iPhone.
I'm really starting to believe that.
There's just nothing that will beat the iPhone
as a standalone device.
Apple's moving into different categories
where they know they're never going to make
as much money as they did with the iPhone.
Now, hopefully this could enhance
their services business a little,
but even then, I think it's going to have minimal impact.
Now, we've heard stories over the past couple of years
that Taemoo and Sheen are both competitors to Amazon.
And Amazon is very threatened because of these companies.
When I looked at the numbers,
I didn't see that threat showing up in the US.
But regardless, at least Amazon considers them a threat
and they're adjusting to them.
Amazon has debuted a discount store
with everything under $20 to take on Taemoo and Sheen.
The Amazon Hall storefront,
so it's called Amazon Hall,
is accessible through the company's mobile app
and promises crazy low prices on a plethora of goods.
Shoppers can buy $1 eyelash curlers and oven gloves
or a $3 nail dryer.
The company is offering free shipping
on orders over $25 or $4 on shipping
for orders below that threshold.
So this is basically the opposite
of what Amazon normally does.
Normally, you have their prime membership,
you have free shipping,
but you don't have this super cheap Chinese prices
for these low quality, low priced items.
That's something that Taemoo and Sheen
really came into the US
when they shipped directly from China over to the US.
It took weeks to get your items,
but it appealed to people
that wanted the cheapest prices possible.
Now, this article from CNBC says
that Amazon is betting shoppers
will wait longer for products
in exchange for rock bottom prices.
This isn't something that they're betting on.
There's no gamble here.
Amazon has simply looked at what Taemoo's done.
Taemoo's already proven
that there is a big group of customers
that are willing to wait a lot longer,
a couple of weeks for a product
if they can get it at a lower price.
So Amazon's not betting on anything.
This isn't a gamble.
This business model has already been proven
by Chinese competitors.
What Amazon's doing here is copying them.
They're copying Chinese competitors like Taemoo.
They're copying the business strategy
and they're using their massive distribution and network
to put it in their app
that everyone already has downloaded
and they already have all your information.
So the transition from shopping on amazon.com,
their normal website,
shopping for normal products,
or shopping on Amazon haul is virtually seamless.
There's no different flipping from app to app.
It's right in your Amazon app.
And this development further follows the blueprint of Amazon
where they compete with everyone
from every part of the world.
They try to attack every business everywhere.
It is the most capitalistic competitive business
I think that exists on earth.
So it'll be interesting to see how Amazon haul does.
I'm guessing that even if Amazon haul negates
or slows down the growth of Taemoo,
they'll consider it a success.
Now, finally, tomorrow morning,
we have Disney reporting their earnings.
If we look at the weekly calendar here,
we can see a number of familiar companies.
This is the earnings calendar on Qualtron.
If you haven't tried it out, it's a new feature
released to everyone right now.
But if we click on Disney right here,
click on the logo,
it brings up their history of their earnings
and their revenue.
The red is when they've missed,
the blue is when they've beat
their earnings estimates by analysts.
And we can see that on the earnings per share,
most of the time they beat.
In fact, they're on a win streak here.
We have around seven different earnings reports,
around two years of constantly beating
on their earnings per share estimate.
If I had a guess,
I think that streak is gonna continue.
We've seen strength from Netflix.
We see strength internationally.
I think Disney is gonna do well
on their subscriber count.
They lost subscribers internationally
on Disney Plus last quarter.
So that's something to watch.
We'll see if they can reverse that.
But overall, I really think they're gonna
beat on their earnings per share.
Now, when we flip over to the revenue here,
this is where it can get a little bit dicey.
They're projecting,
or at least the analyst estimates right now,
are for $22.44 billion.
So it's gonna be right around last quarter,
one quarter before.
But we look at their history with their revenue,
and they miss around half the time.
So this one is a toss up.
Statistically, Disney has around
a 50% chance of missing the revenue.
Tom Rogers is someone that has been
overall correct on the streaming world.
He's predicted that Netflix has won this battle
a long time period ago.
But he also says that Disney's
not out of this fight yet.
Disney still may turn out to be
a winner in this category.
Well, just to set the table a little bit,
Disney is number one in terms of viewership overall
when you aggregate its streaming
and its traditional TV services.
So in a position to show some leadership here
in terms of engagement.
Having said that, it's hard to talk about Disney
without talking about Netflix.
And Netflix enterprise value now
is actually bigger than Disney, Warner,
Paramount and Fox combined.
Just to show what the traditional TV world
is up against in terms of Netflix growth.
That's just incredible.
Netflix is bigger than basically
all of their competitors combined.
In fact, all of their top competitors combined.
I've been saying this for a while as well.
Netflix is no longer really competing
with Paramount or Max or even Disney.
I think their true competitor is now Amazon.
I really think that they look at Amazon and YouTube
as their primary competitors.
I think they've kind of looked past Disney.
I think they've really, they fought that battle.
They beat them.
They're onto Amazon and YouTube
looking at them as the primary threats.
Netflix free cashflow is presumably
gonna surpass Disney's next year.
But the thing that I'm impressed with with Disney
is they've gotten their streaming revenues
up to about two thirds of Netflix.
And last quarter, their streaming revenue
was about equivalent to what their traditional
linear television revenues are.
No one else among the traditional media companies
have done that.
So they're getting some revenue scale.
The big question that everybody's gonna be focused on
is yes, they've established their streaming.
Yes, it's scaling.
But the big question is, can it be as profitable
as their traditional television business was?
That's a question of margins.
And the margins on the streaming business
have a long way to go.
So Disney has a lot of engagement,
but a lot of their engagement is still on cable TV,
which is shrinking over time.
Some of it's on the streaming,
which is growing over time.
And they're in that battle
where they have to grow the streaming
to be more profitable
than their legacy cable business,
which is very difficult to do.
Ultimately, I think that Disney is an okay bet.
I think they will become a big streaming player.
I think streaming is a very profitable thing
if you're at scale.
Scale is the most important thing.
And I think that Disney is one of the companies
that can reach scale.
On this specific earnings report tomorrow,
my guess is that they'll be
on their earnings per share estimate.
And I think there's around a 60% chance
they'll beat on their revenue as well.
But I'd say the revenue is a bit more shaky.
I think they're gonna show good subscriber gain growth
internationally and in the US.
That's a question.
So that one's a little bit of a toss up,
but we saw what Netflix did
and Disney is following the same blueprint.
Now, of course, I think Netflix is still a better bet.
It's still the one that I have all my money in,
but I won't count Disney out just yet.
That's all for this episode.
Hope you enjoyed.
See you in the next one.
