People are moving back to New York. 2025 Housing Market surge.

Are home prices across New York State going to continue to increase in 2025? Or are we finally going to see the New York housing market hit a big downturn? And in this video, folks, I'm going to use data from Reventrap to talk about all the different areas of New York State, namely the New York City metro area, which includes northern Jersey, going all the way up to upstate New York. And the first thing we need to realize about New York is that home values continue to grow. They're up by 6.7% over the last year, going from a typical value of $4.50 to $4.80 across the state. And the primary driver of this continued price appreciation in New York is low inventory. There's still very low inventory and supply across many areas of New York State. For instance, folks, you can see that inventory in Albany County is down 47% from normal. Meanwhile, if we go further south in the state, we can see inventory in Westchester County, just to the north of New York City, is down 44% from normal, while inventory in Nassau County in Long Island is down 38% from normal. So we just have still such low supply here in many parts of New York State compared to what it was before the pandemic. However, there's a dirty little secret to the New York housing market that I'm going to let you in on right now. And that's the fact that it's very bifurcated. And in fact, home prices have actually gone down quite a bit in New York City over the last two years. If we look on ReVenture app at a data point called percentage change from June 2022, which looks at how much values have changed over the last two to two and a half years, you can see New York County, Manhattan, is down 21% on home and condo values over the last two and a half years. The typical price of a condo in Manhattan in June 2022 was $1.4 million. Now it's $1.1 million, with these values literally at their lowest level since about 2013, everyone. So I don't know if you guys knew that. Home values in Manhattan have been crashing and have really performed poorly for the last 15 to 20 years overall. To the point now that we're seeing condo owners in New York City list their condos for massive losses compared to what they bought it for even two decades ago. Check out this listing, everyone. This is a one bedroom condo near Central Park that's currently listed for $1.2 million, which I know is still a lot of money. There's a $1,400 a month HOA, which is one reason why it's not selling. But take a look at this, everyone. It's been on the market for 200 days, only 10 saves on Zillow. This estimate is down 26% in the last 10 years, and this owner bought this condo in 08 for $1.5 million, and now they're selling it for $1.2 million in 2014. So that's a $300,000 loss over 16 years, which means that home values in Manhattan in inflation-adjusted terms are the cheapest they have been in two to three decades. So an interesting question to ask actually, is Manhattan real estate now a buying opportunity? If we look at the overvalued data point on Reventrap, we can actually see home values all across Manhattan are undervalued compared to their long-term norms. In addition, we're seeing the same thing start to play out in Queens as well as Brooklyn. So have we maybe seen a bottom hit in the Manhattan, New York City real estate market, and could it actually be a good time to buy in New York City if you have the money to do that? Well, I'm going to answer that question later in this video, but first I want to dig into some other areas of New York, because as someone who actually grew up in New York, I always got frustrated when people would talk about New York State as if it was just New York City, right? And then even if you're 20 minutes north of New York City, you were upstate, but that's clearly not the case. New York's a massive state, so we got to understand what's going on in some of these other housing markets. And we're going to shift to the metro view here on Reventrap. And one thing I want to look at is I want to go back to that home value growth year over year data point. And where is the highest home value growth occurring in New York right now? Well, it's actually in Syracuse, everyone. Home values in Syracuse are up by 10% over the last year. This is one of the highest appreciation rates in America. Like if we just restrict metros to the population above 200,000, zoom out, and then sort by home price growth, you can see Syracuse is actually number two in home price appreciation in America. Rochester is number 10. And then we also have some New Jersey markets, Atlantic City and Trenton at five and six. And then we actually have Connecticut at four, seven, and eight. And so one thing is really clear looking at this home price appreciation chart is that the Northeast is the best performing housing market in America right now. This is where the most appreciation is happening. And again, why is that appreciation happening here in upstate New York? It's due to low inventory. So if we look at a metric called inventory surplus or deficit, we can see there's a big inventory deficit in pretty much all of these metros. In Syracuse, inventory is down 24%. In Rochester, it's down 32%. In Albany, it's down 40%. In Hudson, it's down 28%. In Poughkeepsie, it's down 33%. And even if you go to Connecticut, inventory is down 50%. And if you go to Northern Jersey, it's also down. And so we're in a very low supply situation here in New York state. But will that low supply situation continue? Because there's a funny fact about New York. And that's the fact that it actually loses lots of people. So New York has been losing lots of people the last five to 10 years. But despite those losses, the housing markets continue to appreciate. And so this is something confusing for some of you guys out there. Conventional wisdom on New York is that everyone's leaving. So how is it that the housing market is performing so well? And will the housing market continue to perform well into the future? Well, let's take a look actually at that migration data in New York on ReVenture app, everyone. If you go to investor metrics, hit migration total, you can see New York state lost 143,000 people in 2023. That's a huge, huge loss. So you can see basically New York, I mean, New York has lost people every year the last 30 years. Except for that one year, New York has lost people. And then it hemorrhaged people during the pandemic. And you can actually see there's kind of almost a cycle to these losses in New York where like there was a peak loss back in 05-06 of 161,000 people. And then as the housing downturn happened, New York started losing fewer people. And I think something similar is like playing out now, where the losses in New York are still big on migration and population, but they're getting better than they were. And I wouldn't be surprised if they continue to improve into the future. Because I think more people are starting to move back to New York who left during the pandemic. And I think more people are starting to actually move to upstate New York in particular. Because that area in upstate New York is proving attractive. And even a market like Albany now is gaining people. I mean, Albany has been positive migration two of the last three years, which is a lot for a market that really lost people for much of the last 10 to 15 years. Now it's starting to trend into positive territory. And so I think it's unlikely that home prices across New York state crash. Rather, what I think is more likely is that, in fact, New York is going to see improved migration statistics in the next two to three years, and that prices might continue to go up in 2025. And then maybe at some point in the middle of 2025, at the end of 2025, we might see New York's housing market slow as maybe the exodus from New York City slows. So fewer people are going to leave New York City up into Westchester and upstate, but they'll remain in the state. Because of that, New York City's housing market will improve while there'll be more of a slowdown in upstate. But I don't really think we're going to see prices drop that much. As you can see, home prices across New York state more broadly are only 15% overvalued. They're not that disconnected from incomes. So maybe there's a modest correction over several years as demand eventually slows, but I don't think we're going to see a huge, huge crash. But really what I would recommend you do if you're a New York home buyer, whether you're in Northern Jersey, which actually I got to talk about Northern Jersey real quick, everyone. So let's look at Northern Jersey, because I think a lot of you watching this video probably are in Northern Jersey and want to understand the market there. Northern Jersey is still very, very tight. Home prices in Bergen, Essex, Union County are still up 7% to 8% year over year. Middlesex County, they're up 10% year over year. Due again to that big, big shortage of inventory. We see a lot of blue here, meaning big inventory shortage. And so you can think kind of of those Northern New Jersey counties as behaving similar to Westchester County and Putnam County, as well as those counties in Connecticut like Fairfield. They all behave the same way. They're bedroom communities to New York City. Lots of people left New York City, went to those counties during the pandemic, which suppressed inventory. Inventory is still very low, might improve over the next year, but there's still a long way to go before prices would actually drop. And so if you're somebody who wants to make a more educated decision as a home buyer in the tri-state area, go to www.reventure.app, which is the program I used in this video. And in particular, look at the home price forecast score, because this price forecast score is going to tell you in the next 6 to 12 months where prices are likely to head based on the data today. You know, for instance, in Rockland County, we have a 65 out of 100. This is a score that's suggesting that prices are going to continue to go up. It's still a seller's market. And so if you see this and you're buying in Rockland County, understand prices are still likely to go up. There's still going to be a tight buying environment. Also understand that as a seller. And you can actually get that home price forecast data down to your zip code. So you can make more informed neighborhood specific decisions, like seeing the difference here between Manhattan and New Jersey. Big differences in price forecast. Access all of this at www.reventure.app under a premium plan that costs only $39 a month, everyone. So for $39 a month, you can gain clarity and insight as a home buyer investor and feel much more confident about the decision you're making, knowing the underlying data in the market. So check out a premium plan on ReVenture app right now for your city and zip code in New York.