What Trump's 2nd Presidency Means for China; Who Could Join Trump's New Cabinet? | China in Focus

Welcome to China In Focus. I'm Tiffany Meyer. Our top story, China reacting to Trump's sweeping victory. The Chinese Communist Party leader congratulated the president-elect while watching his own stock market plunge. What could a second Trump term mean for China? Trump is expected to place 60% tariffs on goods made in China in line with one of his major campaign promises. I believe that Trump's threat of 60% tariffs will likely happen. To keep the promises he made to Americans on the campaign trail, Trump is primed to appoint a top-notch cabinet. A list of potential candidates for the key positions. And Germany has arrested a U.S. man for allegedly leaking military intelligence to China. The American used to work for U.S. forces stationed in Germany. Beijing is bracing for Trump's return to the Oval Office. The same president-elect that pushed back on China's unfair trade practices shut down the Chinese consulate in Houston and cracked down on Chinese telecom company Huawei, all while calling Chinese leader Xi Jinping a friend. Xi Jinping congratulated Trump on Thursday, saying the two powers should find a way to get along. China's stock market dropped on Wednesday, with Hong Kong's benchmark index falling over 2%. And outside the U.S.-China playing field, how could Trump's second term reshape U.S. relations around the world? Vice President-elect J.D. Vance has said Trump would negotiate with Russia and Ukraine to end the war so America can focus on China, though it remains unclear how that could play out. Wang He is a China affairs commentator. He told NTD that Beijing is observing Trump carefully as he's unpredictable. One moment, Trump could be saying Xi Jinping is my best friend, but he could also start a trade war. He said Taiwan needs to pay the U.S. for defending it from China. But he also could say that if China invaded Taiwan, he would bomb Beijing. He can give contradictory remarks any time. What does he really mean? What is his logic? It's hard for Beijing to figure out. Trump didn't clearly outline whether he would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, though he said he wouldn't need to use military force to deter Beijing from invading Taiwan because Xi Jinping respects him and knows that he's, quote, crazy. He also said Taiwan should pay the U.S. for defense, like getting Washington to an insurance company. In his first term, Trump approved over $18 billion worth of weapons sales to Taiwan, three times higher than under the Biden administration. Taiwanese President William Lai congratulated Trump on his win, posting on X that he's confident the partnership would serve as a cornerstone for regional stability. Taiwan's security has a big impact on U.S. national security. It's a linchpin of a line of democracies that geographically prevents Beijing from launching submarine-based nuclear attacks on the U.S. Taiwan also makes over 90 percent of the world's most advanced semiconductors, microchips that power everything from iPhones to weapons. Another main area Trump is targeting, trade with Beijing. China is one of America's largest trading partners, with goods exports totaling over $500 billion last year. Trump will likely place higher tariffs on goods made in China. That's according to a strategic advisory firm, the Asia Group. Take a listen. I believe that Trump's threat of 60 percent tariffs will likely happen, at least in terms of the U.S. trade policy towards China. My guess is that they'll look back at where the last trade discussion went during the first Trump administration. And I suspect the Trump administration will say that we still have unfinished business here. So certainly the signals we've gotten so far are a lot more tariffs or at least the threat of that. In his first term, which ended four years ago, Trump began imposing punitive tariffs of up to 25 percent on Chinese imports, targeting what he called Beijing's unfair trading measures. President Biden kept most of the tariffs. But Trump wants more. He vowed to impose a 60 percent tariff on imports from China. On another front, the European Union is also threatening to increase tariffs on certain Chinese imports. Lin believes that China does not want to fight a two-front war in that trade arena. And my suspicion is the types of strategies they've used in the past, for example, to try to divide opinion between U.S. and Europe and try to divide opinion within the European states will continue to be an ongoing tactic to try to slow down that evolution of higher tariffs. Some experts believe a trade war would harm China even more than it did during Trump's first term. The country's economy is now much more vulnerable. High tariffs on Chinese goods will not only post a major risk to China's economic growth, but also cause Taiwan to drift further away from China. Taiwan economy minister said on Thursday that the Taiwanese government would help domestic companies that have factories in China relocate to other countries. Fashion retailer Steve Madden also said Thursday that it's been working quickly to shift products sourcing out of China and into other countries in Asia and South America. Leaders across Asia are buzzing with congratulations for President-elect Donald Trump. Here's a closer look at some of the messages coming through. As for Taiwan, both the ruling and opposition parties congratulated Trump on his win. A spokesperson for Taiwan's ruling party said the island and the U.S. share common values of democracy and freedom, adding that Taipei is looking to deepen its U.S. partnership. It also thanked the Biden administration for working with Taiwan. The Chinese Communist Party sees Taiwan as part of China despite never having ruled it. It has vowed to take the island under control by force if necessary. The U.S. doesn't have diplomatic relations with Taiwan but is bound by law to sell weapons to the island so it can defend itself. Those weapons sales are facing a massive backlog, though, and Taiwan is still waiting to receive over $20 billion worth of weapons. Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told reporters that he spoke to Trump over the phone for about five minutes and that the two will look to meet as soon as possible. He said he congratulated Trump on his win, adding that the president-elect gained the support of many Americans. He also said he felt Trump was very friendly and that the two can speak openly. According to the Japanese prime minister, it was the first time he spoke to Trump one-on-one. The South Korean president also spoke with president-elect Trump via phone. Yoon Suk-yol said he held a 12-minute phone call with Trump and agreed to build a strong partnership in the Asia-Pacific and global region. Yoon says he and Trump discussed North Korea and its missile launches. He says the two also want to meet in the near future, adding that the trilateral partnership with Japan will continue under Trump's presidency. Yoon pointed out that South Korea has not ruled out supplying Ukraine with weapons following North Korea's deployment of troops to support Russia in its war. Beyond that, Yoon said Trump noted South Korea's success in shipbuilding and vessel maintenance and said he looked forward to discussing more about how South Korea can aid the American shipbuilding industry. After clinging to victory, president-elect Donald Trump is now primed to select his picks for a new cabinet. From high-profile politicians to Wall Street leaders, some American elites are eager to fill top posts in the Trump administration. The first post, secretary of state. Senator Marco Rubio is among the top picks. He's known as one of the toughest China hawks. Rubio has introduced multiple bills to counter the Chinese Communist Party. Former National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien, who served during Trump's first term, is also a hot pick. He and Rubio both defended Trump's Taiwan policy. Moving on to the Defense Department, Congressman Mike Walls, Senator Tom Cotton, and Mike Pompeo are among the top contenders. Pompeo is a former CIA chief and served as Secretary of State under Trump. Speculations about former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell spanned two roles, Secretary of State and National Security Advisor. He was a long-term foreign policy advisor for Trump. As China fears the possibility of sky-high tariffs after Trump's return, who could be the one to take charge of the U.S. Treasury? Wall Street tycoon and major Trump donor John Paulson, Trump's key economic advisor Scott Besnant, and former trade representative Robert Lighthizer are among the most likely options. All of them support Trump's tariff policies. And what's more, we can't forget about a rising star in Trump's campaign, Elon Musk. Trump has pledged to let the Tesla and SpaceX CEO lead a new board, the Government Efficiency Commission, to audit the entire federal government. Next, Germany has arrested a U.S. citizen on suspicion of providing China with U.S. military intelligence. The German Federal Prosecutor's Office revealed the case in a statement on Thursday. The man, identified only as Martin D., allegedly obtained the intelligence while working for troops stationed in Germany. According to the statement, Martin had offered to share sensitive information with Chinese officials, which they could pass on to Beijing. Europe has witnessed an increasing number of espionage cases linked to China in the recent years. Three German nationals were arrested in April for allegedly passing defense intelligence to China. A former staffer from the European Union also faces a Chinese espionage accusation. Coming up, the NATO Secretary General sounding the alarm about growing ties between China, Russia, and North Korea. He's meeting with European leaders in Budapest. China, North Korea, Russia, and of course Iran. And this is more and more a threat, not only to the European part of NATO, but also to the United States. A European summit taking place in Budapest. French President Macron describing China and the U.S. as carnivores and urging Europe to be more assertive. And new developments in the parent versus social media debate. Australia is proposing a game changing law that could impact platforms like Meta, Instagram, and TikTok. More on that after the break. Here on China In Focus. Welcome back to China In Focus. I'm Tiffany Meyer. NATO Chief Mark Rutte says ties between Russia and North Korea are not only a threat to European security. He spoke Thursday before a meeting in Hungary. China, North Korea, Russia, and of course Iran. And this is more and more a threat, not only to the European part of NATO, but also to the United States, because Russia is delivering the latest technology into North Korea in return for North Korean help with the war against Ukraine. And it is a threat not only to the European part of NATO, but also to the U.S. mainland. So I look forward to sit down with Donald Trump to discuss how we can face these threats collectively. Rutte said during Trump's first term, he spurred European nations to boost military spending and surpass the standard defense budget threshold around 2% of each country's GDP. Rutte described this as a major success for Trump. Trump had threatened to pull the U.S. out of NATO at the time if European countries did not raise their military spending. Back then, the U.S. paid most of NATO's military expenses. His threat angered European countries, but they abided by the request in the end. French President Emmanuel Macron is urging Europe to take action and become a fully independent power. He made the comments Thursday at the start of a European political community summit in Budapest. Macron discussed Ukraine at the summit. He said a Ukrainian win in its war against Russia is in Europe's best interest. Macron also said it's necessary to protect European democracy and public opinion from external influence. He warned that liberal democracies risk collapse if they don't regulate content. Macron also argued that Europe shouldn't rely on the U.S. for security and innovation or on China for economic growth. The French leader urged his counterparts not to remain static in the face of the two superpowers, which he called carnivores. He said Europe must adopt a more assertive stance, moving from a passive herbivore to a more resilient omnivore. There is a geopolitical situation where it is clear that we have two blocs, the United States of America on one side and China, which above all seek their own interests. And both decide to be much less, if I may say so, complacent with international rules, or in any case respectful of them. Like many, I had the opportunity yesterday to speak to President-elect Donald Trump. Some of us around this table know him from 4 years ago in his previous position. I congratulated him, but basically I think that our role here, in the European Union, is not to comment on the election of Donald Trump, to wonder if it is good or not. He was elected by the American people, and he is going to defend the interests of American people. And that is legitimate, and that is a good thing. The question is, are we ready to defend the interests of Europeans? That is the only question that we should ask ourselves. And for me, I think that is our priority. Ukrainian President Zelensky urged leaders at the summit to adopt a peace-through-strength approach against Russia's threat. His appeal came after Donald Trump's re-election, raising uncertainty about the future of U.S. support for Ukraine. Trump has vowed to end the war, but criticized extensive U.S. aid to Kyiv. Zelensky praised Trump's stance on strength in global affairs at the summit, urging Europe to firmly back Ukraine. He warned against concessions to Russia, calling it suicidal for Europe. As former President Trump prepares to step back into the Oval Office, speculation is swirling about America's dynamic on the international stage. Cameron Hamilton, a Navy SEAL combat veteran and former division director at the Department of Homeland Security, weighs in. I would be shocked at this point if the Chinese Communist Party pursues a pathway to actually take back the island of Taiwan. I think the rhetoric has been there. I think we saw what's happened in Hong Kong. But I think with the Trump administration coming back into office, I would be extremely shocked if they actually made an action and a step against Taiwan. If they do, I think it'll be before Trump takes office, so they already have a foothold, if you will. But the over-the-horizon operations that they're planning there are very unique. China has also extended itself financially in ways that are very unstable. So China actually was significantly impacted through some of the sanctions and some of the trade agreements that Trump had brought about. So I think that they're going to try to negotiate with Trump to find a mutual path forward. And I think Trump will also leverage China significantly and put pressure on them to keep actors like North Korea, who's now committed up to thousands of troops to fight with Russia in Ukraine. I think he'll use entities like China and many others to help dial that back and to ensure that the Southeast Pacific can really sort of calm down and de-escalate some of the rhetoric and tone. I do think that also Trump was very successful in bolstering a relationship with Japan. That's an interesting counter to some of the prerogatives of the PRC. So he has a style and a likeness that really can't be modeled. Because again, we have someone who didn't spend time being groomed through traditional diplomatic channels. He's a businessman, and I think he just wants to find prudent solutions that make sense and move forward. So it'll be an interesting first few months, that's for sure. What do you think about the relationship that's going to be like between the US and Taiwan? Because Trump has said that he wants Taiwan to pay more, right? So I'm wondering, what's the dynamic going to be? That's a great question, too. One of the programs that actually helped be brought about from the Trump administration was engaging and encouraging Taiwanese companies to invest in US infrastructure to build here. We have battery manufacturers, we have solar plant fields, we have a lot of things that now Taiwanese companies, microchip processing centers, you name it, they're building it within the United States for two reasons. Number one, because if China does invade Taiwan, obviously that market is now potentially saturated and China now controls the industry, which is a huge issue with trade. Number two, to encourage potentially more viable options to produce more and to partner with American firms so that we can get back to that industrial base that the United States had coming out of the Second World War. Trump has been trying to pursue both of those things. So Taiwan has always been a critical partner. I think that our trade agreements and relationships there will only expand, but we will see how that strains this love-hate relationship between China and the US. All kind of trying to head towards this peace at home and abroad vision. Thank you so much for this and for your time, Cameron Hamilton. Great to speak with you. Thank you for having me. Italy is preparing a plan to keep its technology out of foreign countries' hands. The strategy targets Italian universities and research institutions. Italian Undersecretary of State Alfredo Montalvano cited biomedicine, robotics and semiconductors as the most affected sectors. The Italian government has previously used anti-takeover legislation to veto Chinese investments in industries deemed strategically important, but those measures didn't cover universities and research institutions. The new plan is set to fill that loophole. Reports say the plan might be ready before the end of this year. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese saying Thursday that his government plans to outlaw social media for children and teenagers under the age of 16. The country is testing an age check system to block kids from social media with a possible ban as early as next year. Officials said the rules would apply to platforms like TikTok. Albanese highlighted the dangers to children, including harmful depictions of body image and misogynist content aimed at boys. The law will be introduced this year and take effect 12 months after approval. There will be no exceptions for children with parental consent or existing accounts. He added that social media platforms must prove they're blocking underage access. The onus will be on social media platforms to demonstrate they are taking reasonable steps to prevent access. The onus won't be on parents or young people. There will be no penalties for users. Communications Minister Michelle Rowland said the rules would apply to platforms like Meta, Instagram, TikTok and X. YouTube would probably be included too. None of the companies could be reached for comment right away. Many countries plan to limit children's social media use, but Australia's policy is one of the strictest. Fronts proposed banning social media for people under 15, but allowed exceptions with parental consent. The U.S. has required parental consent for children under 13, causing most social media platforms to ban those under that age. Outside Australia, Canada announced Wednesday that it's ordering TikTok's Canadian business to dissolve. The move comes after a national security review of the Chinese company behind the app. Canada says the step is meant to address risks related to parent company ByteDance, though the Canadian government notes it's not blocking Canadians' access to TikTok itself or their ability to create content. Japan's third largest automaker, Nissan, said it would slash 9,000 jobs and cut global production capacity by one-fifth. Nissan cut its annual operating profit forecast by 70 percent, down to $975 million. It marks the company's second downward revision this year. Looking back on the first half of this fiscal year, Nissan's global sales fell 3.8 percent, largely due to more than a 14 percent drop in China sales. On top of that, U.S. sales fell almost 3 percent. Together, the two markets account for nearly half of Nissan's global sales by volume. That's all for today's China In Focus. I'm Tiffany Meyer. If you have any feedback on the show or have something you'd like to see us cover, send us an email at ChinaInFocusNTD.com. We'd love to hear from you. For around-the-clock original news coverage, visit us at NTD.com or download our NTD app. Thanks for watching. See you soon.