Are Skyrocketing Home Prices Sustainable Despite Rising Mortgage Rates?

Hey folks, Dan Ferro here with your market update for October 29th 2024. So today we're going to talk about rates as we usually do. Home prices for those that were hoping for the crash and disappointed once again, the economic calendar, we're going to go through and show you just the major information out today and it's start that that data is starting to come in that the Federal Reserve monitors employment and inflation. And then we're going to show the market reactions based on the news that came out so far today. What's the market reaction to these things over here. So let's get to it. These are where we ended yesterday. So if you watch my closing bell, these numbers are exactly the same as what I use in the morning. So rates aren't updated yet. What happens is mortgage news daily right up there. They're they do a fantastic job and they survey lenders all over the country. And they have some five questions. So how do these rates you know, how do you get these rates because you might have called around the rates are being quoted are higher than these or maybe lower than these. So let me give you an idea what these rates consist of. There's there's five basic criteria behind these. Three of them are this, it's you're buying your first house, okay, so your first time homebuyer, it's a single family home, and you're going to live there. Okay, so these are primary residency. So those three things. There's two other pieces of the equation. It's right through here. Let's get those so you get it right from the horse's mouth. These people are actually putting down 25% because they're putting they have a 75% loan, and they have a 780 credit score. So if that's you, this is most likely where your rates going to be right through here. If that's not you, I'm a mortgage advisor, I'd love to help you. I'm licensed in all 50 states as well as Puerto Rico. So if you're out there trying to find that first house to buy, maybe you're trying to buy your second house investment property, refinance, you're looking for investor loans. I'm your man, hopefully I'm licensed like I said, I'm licensed in all 50 states, as well as Puerto Rico, and I'm also a mortgage broker. So I'm set up with about 50 different lenders at this time. So by using us, it's basically one application, one credit pool, and we're going to shop your loan to over 50 different lenders. So that's more about me there. That's about me. If you if you didn't notice, I was in the news the other day. So NewsNation, they reached out to me last week, and they said, Hey, would you like to be a special guest? We're talking about the housing market. And I was like, sure. I was wearing my mountaineer sweatshirt that day because I wasn't ready for it. But check out that video. I was on NewsNation talking about housing. So let's get to it right here. The bond market. This is where there's uncertainties in the market and a lot of its concerns right now. And I'm trying to figure that out why mortgage rates are jumping so high. And I think we found the blame is the US election. So hopefully after the election, investors and the world knows who's going to be our president. And then everybody can adjust accordingly. So right now a lot of it is to blame for bond vigilantes. And this is a great interview or great article right through here. We won't go through it in details. I just want to give you basically scratch the surface so you guys can dig in a lot of this yourself. But the bond market's causing a lot of this. But the next question, the next piece of the puzzles right through here, home prices hit yet another record high. And I know a lot, you're going to see 10 different videos today, they're going to say these are they're lying, or they're not giving you the whole truth or whatever. Guys, let's just go with the headlines. Okay, home prices hit another record high, we don't didn't see a crash. It is a correction coming, maybe. Okay, but a lot of people have been saying that for years. And unfortunately, they were wrong. So if you sat on the sidelines for the last couple years waiting for that crash, you saw a few things you see house prices continue to go up and up and up. And you also see mortgage rates continue to go up and up and up. We had a little stagnation last month. Is that going to come back those those lower rates? You know, maybe can we get into the 5% range? Well, that's our focus here. So it gives you right through here home prices in the top US cities were up 5.2%. And then the broader market was up 4.2% year over year. Now the month over month is starting to reduce. But that's a seasonality thing. Usually when you hit October, November, December, January, prices come down a little bit activity slows quite a bit. And then soon Super Bowl hits Super Bowl is like turning on the light switch. So the Super Bowl hits everybody starts going out there and buying homes again. So let's get to the economic calendar or the economic news we have for today. But I want to show you some some things from yesterday, that's causing rates to increase and proof that rates are going up on proof right here. But right through here, we had a lot of the Treasury bills, we had two year Treasury auction coming out yesterday. And we had a five year Treasury. And that was my closing bill yesterday, I showed you how much was sold. Well, here's what I was talking about where investors are coming in and they're there, they need higher rates to buy up all this debt. So the last time the investors bought in on the five year auction, they got a 3.5 yield on that. Now it took yields up all the way to 4.13 to buy all that debt out there. Same kind of the same thing with the two year note. So we have way too much debt out there, the United States as well as all other countries are dumping a lot of debt, you have mortgage debt, you have corporate debt, all hitting the markets. And it's causing rates to go up on everything. So you saw last time we had, again, the five year auction, it yielded a three and a half percent rate. So investors got a three and a half percent rate. Now it's taking 4.13 a yield all the way up to their 60 basis points higher to get investors to buy. So here's what we're seeing today, the trade deficit is way out of whack. But that's, that'll adjust it, it kind of has its peaks and valleys. So here's what we're talking about. Now let's get over to this section over in here. We have consumer confidence just came in, it was 99 reading last time it's 106. I don't know about you, but this isn't the most confident markets or economy I'm seeing right now. And then you have the jolt index. This is the one number with this, this is job openings and transfers, okay, layoffs and transfers and so forth. The previous reading was seven point, sorry about that 7.86, the new reading 7.44. So there's, there's some stability coming into the jobs markets. But the question mark here is what did the hurricanes, the port strikes and all these other things do to cause this? Is the number really accurate? Or is it in? So we're going to continue to watch that. So basically what you're seeing today is home prices are up. And we also have the jolt index, which is kind of in line with things right now. So we go over to the MBS markets, what's the broad markets doing or the mortgage markets right through here, MBSs are up or down to, well, if you look at this, this, this chart, I'm going to bring this up. Here's where we started the day. So we started the day and it was just bad news. It was the news was out there, they were expecting a bad jolt reading, they're expecting a bad housing reading, and everybody was positioning for those that bad news, then the news came in, not so bad. And then the market just automatically turned. Now we're we're down to, but it's all over the map, we were down about 20 earlier. So the markets rallied all the way back to say, let's say net neutral. So right now, the mortgage rates are going to stay steady right through here. So that's what we're seeing right now. How's the broader markets doing? We have the Dow Jones, well, this was down over 100 points earlier, it's rallying up now it's only down 12. You're seeing some red up here, but there's really not there's no action look at the Dow Jones down 11. It was up positive just a little bit ago and it was negative 100 at the pre market at the S&P flat, there's it's really changed nothing at all. We have the NASDAQ is up 32 Russell is down 15. So none of these numbers are there's not triple digits. There's not even a half a percent adjustment in any of these rates. The VIX continues to go down. Cryptocurrency is on a terror right now. It's 71,600 a lot of being money, a lot of money being made right there. Would I take some money off the table? If I was an investor, and that's what we're going to talk about today. So today we're going to talk about or is back to our discussion on stock talk with Dan. So today what we're going to talk about are ETFs. So here's what I want you to do to prepare for today. Today's video at two o'clock, we're going to talk ETFs because my goal now is to help you guys understand the markets and want to talk about the markets, not just real estate. Okay, so today we're going to talk about the inverse investments that people should make you shouldn't buy an individual stock, you know, you could buy a mutual fund, but I'm going to show you probably the simplest way, or the simplest platform to use to find stocks into screen them, and then what you're going to look for. And then you're going to pick the categories of areas that you're you're most interested in. And I'm going to show you how to do all this live on today's event. It's probably going to be about a half hour, it's going to be short, I'm just here to teach you guys what all this stuff means and how can you can use this to make yourself some money. So I'm not here to tell you what to do how to do things or your or what I'm trading. I'm telling you what I'm trading. But the whole purpose is this is to help you understand the markets. I'm not telling you to buy this stuff by no way. No means by telling you to buy it. What I'm showing you is how to do the research before you do the purchases, whatever investments you want. So that's it. So I said at the beginning of the video, I am a mortgage person. So I'm a mortgage loan officer licensed in all 50 states as well as Puerto Rico. I work for serve bank, which is the 10th largest servicer in the entire country. We'd love to help you. Okay, so go to the rateupdate.com to find more about me. But if you're looking to buy that first house, the one thing I need you to do is click right through here, the grant finder is going to find you grants all over the country that we handpicked. And the reason why we handpick these is the top nation ones. Those are free, almost almost virtually free money to you. There's a slight adjustment in one of the rates for one of the programs. Other than that, it's virtually free money to you. Then there's the Chicagoland grant, we have a million dollars from the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago to use to help people in the Chicagoland area buy homes, and check out and see if you're qualified for this program, you can click that button right through there. So if you'd rather if you want to get the application rolling, just click the Apply Now button or what you could do is scroll down to the bottom of the website, and you're going to find a whole bunch of information through here. And you're going to scroll down to the bottom and you're going to find our 800 number as well as my email address and it is right through here. So you can reach me at 844-775-5626 or email me at dan at the rate update.com. Thanks so much for watching. I'll see you back here at 2.30 Central Time to learn how to search and screen ETFs. Take care. See you then. Bye bye.