Path to 270: Key battleground states a ‘coin flip’ in latest polling

Right here is a coin flip, all right? These are three significant battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. This is what our Fox polling tells us today. Two things to keep an eye on, right? The margin of error in all three states is three points, plus or minus. Pretty good, pretty good polling, all right? Also, it is among likely voters, not just registered voters, but likely voters, so sometimes it gives us a better idea of the ultimate outcome, but here is what we've got. In Michigan, we've got a flat-out tie, 49-49. In Pennsylvania, Trump leads by a point at 50%. Likewise for North Carolina. It's what we also found here, okay? Blue wall states, all right? That's Wisconsin, that's Michigan, that's Pennsylvania. These are brothers in arms, okay? They vote as a unit. Going back to 1992, you see it, right? The Clinton years. Gore and Kerry, both losers those years, but Obama was a victor in 2008 and 12. Then they crossed over, went three for three with Trump, then flipped again to Biden. Upper Midwest, Great Lakes states. Going back to the convention in Milwaukee, this is a target for the Trump team as well as the Harris team. This is what we find on the issues right now, okay? Far right, Kamala Harris on abortion. She leads in our polling by 18 points. On immigration and the border, Trump leads by six points. 16, rather, sorry. In the middle is the economy. Donald Trump over the summer had a significant lead in this, sometimes in the polling as much as double digits, all right? In this particular moment, in the state of Michigan, he leads, but it is by two points, plus two for Trump. Easiest way to look at this, okay? Going into Tuesday, her easiest path is Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and picking up one in Nebraska. Let me take a few of those off the board here now, okay? His easiest path going into Tuesday to get to 270 is flipping Georgia, keeping North Carolina, and flipping Pennsylvania. That would do it. Kellyanne Conway joins us now. Kellyanne, good morning to you. Join our conversation here. What do you see in the polling? What's top of mind right now? Hello. Top of mind right now is that what the Trump campaign has been able to do in the last 24 hours is brilliant because the unexpected surprises with days to go until Election Day should be of your own making. And I disagree that this is a gaffe by President Biden. I think many Trump supporters, including me, see it as a revelation. This is how they feel about us, whether we're deplorable, irredeemable, mega-mega extremist, racist, xenophobic. We've been called everything, and we've been called that by some of these Democratic Senate candidates as well who are playing defense. I think much of this was the way Kamala Harris has mishandled her boss, Joe Biden. She tries to distance herself from him. Why wasn't he in the front row at her speech on the Ellipse? Thanked by her, called to the stage. Be a little bit more gracious and inclusive. Instead, they leave him by himself in the White House, and he's doing a call on behalf of her campaign to a very left-wing Latino group, and we all saw what came from that. So, look, I think at this stage, the big October surprise for me has been how Kamala 2024 has become Hillary 2016. They don't seem to have joy on the job, that sort of alacrity and that energy and that elasticity that shows you're resilient, you can adapt to unforeseen circumstances, you can make a little bit of your own luck, and because they tried to tattoo Donald Trump for two days to some comedian and his tasteless joke that Trump said he's never even met, doesn't know anything about him, you can't then evade and escape the comments of the President of the United States and the leader of your party and the boss who gave you your job. So, I think this is all coming home to roost. What I'm seeing in the polling is Trump needs to get back to that advantage on the economy. It's a natural advantage. He does talk a lot about cultural issues. He talks a lot about the border. This is probably the moment to go back and remind everybody of the significant differences with distinctions between how he performed as president on the economy and how the Biden-Harris economy has left people feeling more economically vulnerable and that everyday consumables, not luxuries, have become out of reach and unaffordable. And to that point, Kellyanne, the battleground state inflation numbers are pretty stark. You could just point to all of those, pull them up here. Everything in this group except for Pennsylvania is above 20%, Pennsylvania at 19.2%. So, that is definitely on people's mind that if you pull up this poll about Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and the family situation, you just touched on this and I'll just give these numbers and let you carry on. Michigan, how do you feel your family is doing? Holding steady or falling behind? And if you just look at these numbers here, 42, 45 in Michigan, holding steady 44, but falling behind 44 in North Carolina and then in Pennsylvania, a similar number. So, similar, Hemer and I were just saying, very similar in those three states how people are feeling. They are, because they've all been victim to excessive government spending. We have spent money in this administration that we don't have on things we don't need or didn't quite ask for. In Michigan, you've got these very particularized, granular issues. Of course, the Arab American population, upset with Kamala Harris and Joe Biden, but the EV mandates. Alyssa Slotkin is saying, look, I don't have an electric vehicle, but people hear, they don't hear electric vehicle, they hear mandate, which takes away your choice. Look, for voters, the questions are always very simple for them. They go in there and they look at their mail ballot, they go into the ballot box, Dana and Bill, and they say, do I want four more? Do I wanna stay the course or do I wanna make a change? That's why Kamala Harris has tried to be the change agent, the insurgent, but people see her as the incumbent. She's got her fingerprints all over these economic data that you are showing. And the other thing that's happening is, basically Kamala Harris and the Democrats are saying, squirrel, that's not true. You're telling us your family is barely hanging on or getting behind or falling behind, and that's not true. Or by the way, even to the extent it is kinda sorta true, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, it's not as important as calling him names, as stopping Donald Trump from being president. Look, I think the Kamala Harris campaign, like Hillary, like some of Trump's primary opponents in the last year and earlier this year, have fallen into the same trap. They make their candidacies about Trump, people want it to be about them, the people. They're listening very carefully to how you can improve their lives, give them a little bit of a release valve into the things that vex them. Americans could not be more plain and simple in terms of what is bothering them and what they're taking into the polls. And even in these closing arguments, for Kamala Harris to be going back to abortion, not inflation, not immigration in such a way, do they not understand abortion voters are already baked? And last point I wanna make, because I don't hear it enough. Because of these 10 abortion initiatives in these different states, some of which are swing states like Arizona and Nevada, you don't need to have your presidential vote be a proxy for your position on abortion. You can have your position on abortion be the way you vote on the initiative. So you can vote one way at the presidential level and vote the same or a different way on the abortion initiative. I know the left thought they were doing a great thing by ginning up turnout, but we voters, we're very smart and we know how to bounce around on the ballot a little bit based on our own predispositions and beliefs. There's a piece today in the Washington Post that addresses exactly that. They find some women in Arizona that. Kellyanne, we are looking forward to spending the weekend with you and probably most of next week. So come on back to New York. Can't wait, sleepover. We will see you then, you got it. Happy Halloween to you. Thank you, Kellyanne. Bye-bye. Thank you, happy Halloween.