2024 Election Data Hub: Control of the Senate

Democrats need to hold on to four crucial Senate seats if they have any hope of maintaining control of the Senate. Our Washington correspondent Luis Martinez joins us from the DC Data Hub with the latest polling data on the Senate races. That's right, if Democrats have any hopes of keeping control of the Senate after the general elections, they need to hold the line in four crucial states. Let's jump right into it. The four crucial states are the ones in the famous blue wall, the Rust Belt states, that is Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. These four seats were also up for re-election in 2018. Democrats held the line then. Let's look at the margins with which Democrats won back in 2018. So according to the results of those elections back in 2018, if we look here at Wisconsin, we have Tammy Baldwin who's also running this cycle, one by double digits, a very comfortable lead. If we go to Michigan, Debbie Stabenow, four-time senator, she's stepping down now and that's why Congresswoman Elisa Slotkin is running in her place for the Democrats, but back in 2018, again, won a healthy lead over seven points and compared to her Republican counterpart. If we go to Ohio, Sherrod Brown, who again, is the same candidate running for re-election 2024, but back in 2018, he had a very healthy lead of more than seven points. And then finally, if we go to the state of Pennsylvania, we can see that Bob Casey, three-time senator, son of a former governor, leading by double digits, a very healthy, very comfortable lead back in 2018. But if we review the polling data from this week, the latest polls according to RealClearPolitics, six days before the general election, we can see that for 2024, it's a very different picture for those same Democratic races or that same blue wall that Democrats are trying to hold. Tammy Baldwin, Wisconsin, six days before the general elections 2024, she's only 0.2 points ahead of her Republican counterpart. In Michigan, Congresswoman Elisa Slotkin is only two points ahead of her Republican opponent. Sherrod Brown here in Ohio, one point ahead. And Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, also one point ahead. So what this shows us is that from 2018 to 2024, those four crucial states, the blue wall, Republicans have been chipping out support for Democrats. Now those are razor-thin margins, and Republicans only need to flip one of those four states in order to have a clear path to victory in a majority in the Senate, as they already expect to flip West Virginia and Montana. Any of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania would surely give Republicans the majority in the Senate.