2024 Election Data Hub: Exploring Battlegrounds Within Pennsylvania

With election day fast approaching, the outcome of the race could differ if voter preferences or turnout change marginally. NTD's election data analyst Kevin Hogan is at the hub with an update. We're going to do a sensitivity analysis using 538's Swing-O-Matic. So what this is, you just take a couple demographics and you change a few parameters like turnout just a little bit and you see how that changes from 2020 until now. So let's take the young voters right now. For example, they may not turn out quite as much in this election and that would really hurt Democrats. Why do we say that? Well, they may be very dissatisfied with the economy and they might not be too happy with the way the Biden-Harris administration has handled the war in Gaza, for example. So if you drop their turnout by 10 points and they vote for a third-party candidate about three or four points more, what happens? Former President Trump could take Wisconsin and he could also take Georgia and Arizona. What does that do? So if you just have low turnout among these young voters, former President Trump could get 272 electoral votes putting him back in the White House. Now, let's reset this for just a moment and let's talk about those non-college educated white voters for a minute. Those are the ones that propelled Trump to the White House and he did really, really well among this group, but there's reason to believe that he might do even better. So if those non-college educated voters shift right just two points, what does that do? That means that former President Trump could pick up Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. So look at that. That's a huge shift and if the non-white voters shift a little bit to the right, which there is some reason to believe based on the polls, he could also take Nevada. So that just means if he does better where he did well, those non-college educated voters, and if he does well with the non-white voters, he could get 297 electoral votes, which would be enough to allow him to be reelected. Now, let's reset this for just a moment. What if you have low turnout among those non-college educated voters and you have white voters that just don't turn out as much? For example, let's say that they support Trump just as much, but they just don't show up in those kind of numbers that they did on election night that they did in 2020. What would happen? That would mean that Harris would repeat Biden's 2020 performance, but she would also pick up North Carolina. Look at this. That would make her well in the lead. That could give her 319 electoral votes. Again, that's if Trump's support stays solid, but they just don't show up in those numbers. Let's talk about older Americans for a moment. They're tending to shift a little bit towards Harris. A couple points says some polls and also those white voters about a point are shifting towards Harris. Now, if we give her just a few more points among those white voters, what would happen? She would not only repeat Biden's performance, but she would also pick up North Carolina and Florida. Why Florida? There are a lot of older Americans there. That means that Harris could get 349 electoral votes and allow her to take the White House. Now, we're going to look at another scenario because we just talked about just changing one demographic or two and a few parameters in that sensitivity analysis, but what if we take all demographics and we show what the polls are showing shifting from 2020 until now and we plug that into the swing-o-matic? Well, here's what we get. We have Harris improving among those college voters according to a CNN poll seven points. That's a lot. Now, she's also picking up six points among older Americans. That's according to New York Times-CNN College. Again, big gains and her support among white voters is going up one point according to NPR's poll. That's a lot of voters that you're talking about here, but Trump is gaining with those young voters four points according to CNBC and he's gaining among black voters 21 points. 21 points he's cutting into that Democrat margin among black voters according to New York Times-CNN College and Trump is actually regaining a little bit of ground among women. That's 11 points that he's regaining that ground among women. That's the University of Massachusetts Amherst poll showing that and also Trump is picking up about two points among Hispanic voters. That's according to New York Times. So, if that holds true in this election, what would happen? That would mean that former President Trump would take Wisconsin. He could also take Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. So, that mean that former President Trump could take 297 electoral votes allowing him to get re-elected if the polls and the shift from 2020 to 2024 right now show if those exact shifts happen in this election, that's what we could be seeing. All right, back to you guys.