미등록美 해군, 中과의 전쟁 대비 강화...3년 안에 '준비 완료' 목표 [크로스로드]

Welcome to Crossroads. The U.S. Navy has a plan to prepare for a possible war with China within the next three years. That's 2027. Now, this new strategy called the Navigation Plan for America's Warfighting Navy aims for, quote, readiness for the possibility of war with the People's Republic of China by 2027 and enhancing the Navy's long-term advantage by making the Navy, quote, more ready for sustained combat. In other words, not just a quick little battle, but an ongoing combat situation, a war, as well as, quote, prioritizing the People's Republic of China as the pacing challenge. You might remember previous reports we talked about the United States is shifting its kind of focus and the main challenger to the United States from Russia to China, including notably on the nuclear stage. They're now deeming the Chinese Communist Party as a greater nuclear threat than Russia, something we haven't done before. Now, according to this Nav Plan, CCP leader Xi Jinping has told his forces to be ready for war by 2027, but the United States Navy will be, quote, more ready. Now, this would be achieved through the implementation of what they're referring to as Project 33, which focuses on preparing the U.S. Navy for that potential conflict again with the Chinese Communist Party, at least by 2027. Now, while at the same time also enhancing the Navy's long-term advantages, and of course when it comes to combating the CCP's Navy, the biggest though unspoken point there is obviously the Chinese Communist Party's potential invasion of Taiwan. Remember, one of the big things on the Chinese Communist Party's plate, the big red line they've drawn on the sand, the thing they say is one of the top priorities is the quote-unquote reunification with Taiwan. In other words, taking Taiwan by force. The United States has stood by its plan to at least support Taiwan. They won't directly say defend Taiwan, but were that to happen, a lot of that would be a naval battle. The Chinese Communist Party have to cross the Taiwan Strait, very shallow waters. You would have a very intense war between, again, Taiwan and the Chinese Communist Party. Other countries, Japan especially, might get involved in that because it's right in the neighborhood. And they, of course, have been working more closely with Taiwan as well. And the United States has its what they call hellscape plan of using various unmanned vehicles to basically delay the Chinese invasion while that gives time for the U.S. Navy to respond to it. The issue the U.S. Navy's having right now though is that part of the whole design of the U.S. military going back pretty far is we're, you know, America geopolitically or geographically, we're kind of a bastion country. We're very hard to invade. And if you want to invade us, well, we'd have two different armies, one on the east coast, one on the west coast. And the focus of the United States with war fighting is to have an army and a full military on both sides fully capable of defeating one adversary. The problem we have now, the Chinese Communist Party wants to get the United States involved in wars with multiple adversaries, at least four. And they've already gotten those going. They have a terror war, they have the Russian war, they have probably their war. And they're trying to now stir up conflicts in South America, they're trying to stir up other conflicts elsewhere. Now were that to happen, of course, the Chinese Communist Party would then have a divided U.S. military. And that division, they believe at least, would mean that they'd be fighting more of a partial U.S. force, not the entire brunt of it. And they believe that that's their opening. Now that's where this NAV, this new NAV plan comes into play and what the U.S. Navy is preparing for, for that potential scenario. Because remember, it's not just about fighting wars. It's also about having proper defenses in place in case another country like maybe Russia, for example, partnered again with the Chinese Communist Party, would decide to maybe attack or invade or do something else while the U.S. military is distracted in another place. Now the U.S. Navy NAV plan 2024 says this. It says this navigation plan drives forward two strategic ends. Readiness for the possibility of war with the People's Republic of China by 2027 and enhancing this whole system as well. Now it says that we will work towards these ends through two mutually reinforcing ways. Implementing Project 33 and expanding the Navy's contribution to the joint warfighting ecosystem. Now this is an important part of what makes the U.S. military unique. The U.S. military has many different branches. Also we have state militaries, the National Guards, and part of the power of the U.S. military is this integrated system, the joint warfighting ecosystem. A small group of troops on the ground supported by ships, supported by intelligence, supported by reconnaissance, supported by air, again air support, and all these things working together to make what is otherwise a very small footprint backed with the full brunt of very powerful military. Now it notes that this ecosystem is a layered network of interconnected systems with shared dependencies. Those who cooperate in the ecosystem create compounding outsized effects over those who do not. It says the warfighting ecosystem operates much the same. A system in which the layered capabilities of each of our military services enabled and are enabled by each other. For example you know for one of the big things with modern fighter jets, the fifth generation jets the U.S. is rolling out, they don't just work as maybe things focused on air-to-air combat. They have systems to basically suck up massive amounts of data. They also work hand-in-hand-in-hand with for example submarines. And again this system of sensors working together with other again you know military assets makes it so that it's an integrated system. You're fighting one thing on the surface but behind that thing connected to it is a much larger much more powerful force. Now they note the chairman of the People's Republic of China has told his forces at Xi Jinping to be ready for war by 2027. And this NAB plan says we will be more ready. And it's a challenge posed by the PRC, People's Republic of China, to our navy now goes well beyond just the size of the PLA navy fleet, the People's Liberation Army. It says ships matter greatly but gone are the days when we assess threats based purely on the number of battle force ships on tonnage through operational concepts like multi-domain precision warfare, gray zone warfare, and interestingly to say economic campaigns, expansion of dual-use infrastructure, for example airfields, and also dual-use forces like Chinese maritime militia, and a growing nuclear arsenal. The PRC, the Chinese military, represents a complex multi-domain multi-axis threat. Now given this situation the strategy seems to address concerns about whether the U.S. military is prepared for a war with the Chinese Communist Party. Now remember this is in context of a recent congressional report. That report alleged that if a war were to take place right now between the United States and China it at least assessed that the United States would risk losing. In fact it said it would lose. The main issues that it raised are the facts that well it would see the United States at war with not just the Chinese Communist Party. Were we to go to war with China tomorrow we would not just be fighting China. We'd be fighting a terrorism war, maybe North Korea, maybe Russia, maybe other other forces in Venezuela, and other countries would use that opening to again expand their conflicts. Remember of course the U.S. government is not recognizing Maduro now as a legitimate leader in Venezuela. They're recognizing the opposition leader. If a war were to take place the United States would be pulled into multiple fronts. The strategy the Chinese Communist Party wanted in place. And also there's a lot of other issues. The report also noted that the United States does not have a domestic supply chain and manufacturing base that would be able to function properly. At least not for the long term. Were to get cut off from the parts of the world that we need to be able to manufacture ammunition and build new tanks and bombs and guns and everything else. But notably it appears the United States is working to close all of those loopholes. You know for example with the problem of fighting a multiple front war the United States right now is working very hard to develop allied nations that would be able to stand alongside the United States against the Chinese Communist Party and its forming axis of nations. Meaning again if the United States went to war it would mean that it would have its allies, the CCP would have its allies, and this would be the battle. Not just the U.S. fighting this alone. And the United States also interestingly is working on new supply chain programs. One of the big narratives of de-risking from China. For example with rare earth minerals and rare earth materials. We're no longer wanting to be just reliant on the Chinese Communist Party. And you know interestingly the Chinese Communist Party in its head is kind of accelerating that. Because every time they sanction the U.S. or put restrictions on some of these materials. Well it's not like with chips where you know the CCP can't manufacture them. They're not capable of it. We can just go open mines. We can work with other countries and develop actual you know profitable businesses in other countries. The benefit is there in doing it. The only reason they're not doing it isn't because they're not capable of it. It's just because you know it costs money to do it. And until now China's been the cheapest source of these materials. There's other options out there. It's not like we need them for it. And so because of this trade war it's causing the U.S. and not even just the U.S. but Japan and Australia and other countries to begin establishing alternative sources for all of this. Breaking the CCP's monopoly in the process. Now it appears also the United States and its allies are becoming much more alert to the growing threats of the Chinese Communist Party overall. The U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell just declared during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing that the threat from the Chinese Communist Party is greater than the threats of the Cold War. Watch. I think there is a recognition that this is the most significant challenge in our history. Frankly the Cold War pales in comparison to the multifaceted challenges that China presents. It's not just the military challenges. It's across the board. It is in the global south. It is in technology. Now look that's a pretty major statement. You know I grew up at the tail end of the Cold War. You know and I remember of course the nuclear threats and people talking about it scared the daylights out of me. Anybody who lived during that time remembers that there was a very real threat of nuclear war. The Cold War saw global proxy wars. We saw revolutions networks of subversion. And again the threat again of just you know nuclear decimation. It was very serious. The threat at that time was serious. And so to declare the Chinese Communist Party and the threat they pose as being greater than that. That's a major statement. And interestingly on another note the Deputy Secretary of State also warned of the What we are seeing between China and Russia has the potential to destabilize Europe over the medium term and long term. And we have to be resolute about this. And I will say this is a relationship guys China Russia that we the United States has always had problems with. And frankly I think we have been slow to recognize the absolute intensity of engagement between President Putin and President Xi. Now this is important because you know for Europe Russia is probably the biggest concern they have. This is a war in their backyard. And as again they begin backing up Ukraine in that war because again the war is affecting their energy sources. It's affecting the economies there. As they back Ukraine in that war Russia is threatening many of these countries Germany for example the UK for example with nuclear retaliation. Now given that as well NATO has determined that the Chinese Communist Party is one of the key enablers of that war. If the CCP enabling it were to be cut off that war would probably come to an end. At the same time as well not too far from that region either. You also have Iran now threatening war against Israel. You have Israel expanding its war into some nearby countries and that's causing again a global terror war. Resurging a lot of these terror networks which have roots again not just now in the Middle East but even in parts of Europe and even possibly throughout Latin America and the United States. Especially if again Hezbollah is dragged into this. Given this situation this war this conflict is in everybody's kind of backyard now. This is not something distant anymore. And again on the US side they're noting the hand the Chinese Communist Party is playing stoking all of these flames. Something we've talked about before before any of this happened noting that this was going to be the Chinese Communist Party strategy. Now part of the US response to this is to establish new missile defense systems in the Asia-Pacific region. And a big focal point of this has actually been in the Philippines. I'll be talking about this more after come back from a quick break. Welcome back. It appears the United States and its allies are becoming a lot more aware of the threats of the Chinese Communist Party. Now the US Navy's 2024 navigation plan for America's war-fighting Navy aims for quote readiness for the possibility of war with the People's Republic of China by 2027. I mean the 2027 time frame really comes from Chairman Xi's own words that he has directed his forces to be ready for war by 2027. And I know that we need to be more ready. And not only that US Deputy Secretary of State Kirk Campbell just declared that the threat from the Chinese Communist Party is even greater than the threats of the Cold War. So how is the US responding? Well part of that response now again because what was the Cold War defined by? Nuclear threats, one of the big ones. The other one being subversion. But on the nuclear threat stage what do you do? Well you put missile defense systems in place. Part of the US response to this new assessment is establishing new missile defense systems in the Asia-Pacific region. And a focal point of this has been in the Philippines. US News said this, they said the United States has no immediate plan to withdraw a mid-range missile system deployed in the Philippines despite Chinese demands. And is testing the feasibility of its use in a regional conflict. Sources with knowledge of the matter said. It notes that this system, it's the Typhon system, which can be equipped with cruise missiles capable of striking Chinese targets, was brought in for joint exercises earlier this year. Both countries, the US and the Philippines said at the time, but has remained there right. We're just bringing it in for training but you know I think we'll leave it here in the meantime. And look this is important because they're keeping the missile system there despite the Chinese Communist Party threatening and pressuring the Philippines to do otherwise. And that sends an interesting message to other countries in that region. One of the main tools the CCP uses to control other countries within that region is fear. They try to say well you know it would take the United States a long time to respond, were a war to take place, they might not get here in time, would be a shame if something happened to you. And so they align with the Chinese Communist Party rather than the United States. And the CCP typically doesn't accept both. They will not again just tolerate these countries aligning fully with the US without pushing back on it. That region is defined by these conflicts. And so this new competition notably is giving a message to other countries, Vietnam, Japan, even South Korea, Taiwan and others, that the United States has a presence there. The United States is willing to stay there. That the threats from the CCP can and will be ignored. And that if you do that even the Philippines can stand against the CCP. Now Newsweek said this, a US mid-range missile launcher deployed to the Philippines earlier this year for war games it says, will remain in the country indefinitely, as long as possible, no seen end to it. The Southeast Asian nation said, despite protests from China. And notes that Brigadier General Bernard Harrington, commander of the US military's first multi-domain task force, called the deployment again of that system, a quote significant step in the US-Philippine partnership. And it's a local media cited Colonel Rinaldo Bolido Jr., deputy chief of the Philippine army chief public affairs, who told the press Tuesday, the system is being used for training and will remain until Washington and Manila decide to remove it. Despite again all that pressure from the Chinese Communist Party. Now interestingly as well, this shows kind of a shift in policy for the Philippines. It was looking a bit like the Chinese Communist Party was trying to cool tensions, you know, quote unquote. Because remember the Philippines is having a lot of maritime disputes with the CCP. They cooled tensions briefly, they came to the table, found an agreement, and they were going to just kind of tolerate each other's presence. The CCP violated that, at least in the assessment of the Philippines, very quickly. Because the Philippines said, hey we weren't fully told the terms of this agreement. What happened? And the Chinese Communist Party's eyes was a battle of narrative. If the Philippines went to go resupply one of their ships, again on one of the shoals there, they were basically having to ask permission from the CCP to do it. On their side it looked like saying, hey we're going to be going here, we're just telling you. On the CCP's side they said, we are allowing you to do it. Suggesting that through this agreement, the Philippines was accepting CCP ownership of that region. And it was on that front the Philippines said, hey, you know, he didn't really make the terms of this clear, deal's off. That deal very quickly unwound. They're right back to where they started, the conflict is ongoing. But rather than moving towards the CCP, the Philippines now is abandoning that, it seems, and moving towards the United States. Now look, in addition to this, the CCP is also now targeting American defense companies with sanctions. It's notably going after companies that support Taiwan. Taiwan News said this, China will take countermeasures against nine U.S. military industrial companies after the announcement of arms sales to Taiwan. Now it notes that China's foreign ministry said that its countermeasures include two parts. The first involves freezing the U.S. firm's real estate and all types of property within China. The second is preventing the firms from conducting transactions and activities with domestic organizations and individuals, again in China. It notes the countermeasures came after the U.S. announced the approval of a possible sale of aircraft spare parts to Taiwan for U.S. 228 million dollars. Taiwan's ministry of national defense said the weapons will help maintain combat readiness as China's gray zone tactics exert pressure on its air and maritime borders. Now this is actually important because, look, the irony is the CCP would be the only one to really lose out on these sanctions. Not allowing U.S. military or like defense companies to work with the CCP doesn't hurt the U.S. Typically they steal our technology, not the other way around. And also typically the CCP would be very happy to have U.S. defense companies working there, again because they can work with them while stealing their technology. The U.S. doesn't get much out of it. It's not clear whether these companies even have any relations there anyways because of the, again, national security implications of doing that. But this is going to have ripple effects very likely because one of the things the CCP does do on the defense front is it works hand in hand with U.S. research agencies. It works hand in hand with U.S. universities, colleges. Some of these colleges have U.S. Department of Defense contracts. They develop, again, things for the U.S. military. They work on research projects. Chinese students are able to come to the United States, study, work on these research projects funded by American taxpayers, and then leave the country, go back to China, and hand it over to the CCP's military. Because the CCP now is drawing this whole issue into focus, because they're now bringing in the defense industries into this picture, that whole system tied to it is going to be a focus now and could get shut down. In fact, they're talking about it. And this is not to mention, this will very likely just accelerate the decoupling that's now taking place. And notably as well, there's a bipartisan group of U.S. senators pushing for this. They're pushing for additional sanctions against the Chinese Communist Party. Now, Defense News said this, a bipartisan pair of senators is introducing a bill that would let the U.S. sanction countries that support the Chinese maritime militia, one of Beijing's tools for gray zone operations, are those that fall below the threshold of war. Again, what is gray zone? It's that little gray area between peace and war, right? Meaning the CCP knows where that line is. You don't cross that line or you start a war. So what do they do? Well, they push their activities right to the very threshold of what would constitute a declaration of war, but they don't cross it. And when it comes to this maritime militia, this is one of the key tools it uses in that particular region. But then mainly again, the East China Sea and the South China Sea. Now, the legislation it says comes from Senator Tim Kaine, a Democrat from Virginia, and Mitt Romney, a Republican from Utah, who's retiring in January. It's modeled after an amendment Romney proposed to Congress's annual defense policy bill. That's the National Defense Authorization Act, which still notably hasn't passed. Lawmakers caught in an election year morass. And notes the bill would give any administration the authority to put financial penalties on outside backers of the maritime militia. Kind of sanctions by extension, so to speak. Ostensibly, this is again the maritime militia. It's a fleet of commercial fishing vessels, but one that is trained by and often operates alongside China's military. In fact, the CCP even kind of institutionalized them within their military structure. They on the surface look like fishing boats, but they're interconnected with CCP military technology, and the CCP coordinates their actions and works with them very closely with its military. Now, I'll go into this a minute, but it notes this. A decade ago, the group, this militia, helped China take over the Scarborough Shoal, a disputed feature in the South China Sea. It's also harassed American naval ships before. And it's in a 2021 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, found that the maritime militia includes around 300 vessels operating around the Spratly Islands, which also sit in the South China Sea every day. Their goal is mainly to enforce China's expansive claims over the area, denying access to other countries that also assert sovereignty there. Now, this type of operation, right, this would target this whole thing. This is part of the CCP's military strategy, especially in the South China Sea. Basically, Chinese generals call this the cabbage strategy. I know it sounds funny, but this is the idea. Cabbages, what are they like? Well, they have layers, and the CCP wants to take these areas by layers. What do they do? Well, in terms of the CCP's own direct statements, they've had Chinese generals saying this on the surface. The first thing they do, they send in these fishing ships, coordinated, of course, with the Chinese military. Then after that, well, you need to have people there to protect these Chinese fishing ships, so what do they do? They take warships, they paint them as Coast Guard ships, and they have the Coast Guard ships ensure the safety of these individuals. Then what do they do? Well, you need to have refueling stations to ensure that the long-term deployment of the Coast Guard can maintain itself there. So what did they do? They built artificial islands, and they build naval bases on those artificial islands. Then what do they do? They declare defensive zones around those islands, whereby they claim segments of the South China Sea. And then, of course, they need to defend them in case anybody wants to challenge the sovereignty of Chinese territory. So what do they do? They build missile systems on those islands, and then they move the actual military to them. And it's through this strategy the CCP conquers this region. And then they use these fishing ships as tools, basically, with this, the very kind of vanguard, right, the front line of that push, and they use them to harass other ships. They use them to harass American Coast Guard ships or military ships. They use them to keep others out of those waters. And again, for the US military or others to actually have a conflict with a little fishing ship, it doesn't look good. And so the CCP uses this deeply within its whole gray zone warfare tactic in that region. And this is how the CCP is conquering territory, how they're fighting a war without crossing that threshold that would constitute a declaration of war. Well, everyone, that's all for today. Thank you for joining us. Let me know what you think in the comments. Also, please share this episode, help us get the word out. And as always, please take care of yourselves, stay informed, and stay free. Thank you.