Why Chris Paul Is One Of The Best Players Ever

Chris Paul has had one of the most controversial basketball careers ever. A perennial All-NBA and All-Defensive player who filled the stat sheet, won at least 50 games almost every single season of his prime, yet never secured his spot among accolade-based viewers with either an MVP or a championship. But what if we take all of those accomplishments out of the equation and exclusively look at the basketball being played on the floor? What if CP3's combination of shooting, passing, and ball handling made him one of the best offensive players ever? What would that mean for his standing as an all-time great? In order to evaluate CP3 at his best, we first have to actually decide what his best years were. I feel like most would point to his younger days in New Orleans, and they'd raise a very compelling argument. There's no denying how that explosiveness as an athlete allowed him to apply downhill pressure at a much higher level, especially in transition. And if you were to say 08 or 09 were his best seasons, you wouldn't get much of an argument from me. Personally, if I had to choose, I'd say I very marginally prefer what he was doing in 2015 and He improved the jump shot. He tightened up his handle. But most importantly, he had completely mastered all of the reads, as this version of Paul was pretty much the ultimate floor general. Of course, it all started with his ability to pass the ball. There's a reason he's widely considered to be one of the best facilitators ever. And what always stood out to me was the sheer accuracy. It didn't matter if he was on the other side of the court, throwing corner to corner. When that ball arrived at the intended target, the placement was almost always perfect, and that can make a world of difference. There wasn't a pass he couldn't make with precision. As soon as the low man starts cheating over, he's gonna fire a one-handed fastball to the corner, and just look at where it hits Josh Smith. He barely even has to adjust. And it was the same thing whenever he was on the move. It didn't matter if he was going left or right, or even making the delivery with either hand. He just knew how to put the ball where his teammates wanted it. I actually want to focus on the deliveries though, because a big part of being a great passer is versatility, and there's nothing Chris Paul couldn't do. Most will point to his size as a limiting factor, and while he may not have had access to as many angles as some bigger creators, he could still float the ball up over rim protectors with great timing. And if there wasn't a window to get the ball over these bigs, he'd look for slight gaps on the floor to shovel the ball through. Again, this goes for either direction. If he was moving to his left, he could make that left to right shovel pass just as effectively. In the event that he couldn't get the ball over the top, and there wasn't a window to shovel it, that's when he'd opt to wrap it around the defense. I feel like I don't even need to say it, but I will anyway. He could also do this with his left, and it's not just the accuracy, but the timing to get the ball there before the weak side defender makes it over. He had completely mastered the art of timing his deliveries. If he needed to speed things up he could, and if he needed to pause to let a play materialize, he arguably did that better than anyone. That timing, when paired with the precision, allowed him to capitalize on impossibly tight passing windows. Like here he's got one defender on his hip, another stepping in front of him, and a third dropping to tag the big. This pass has to be absolutely flawless. Here's one where he comes off the screen and draws a hedge. He starts to go around that second defender, but picks up his dribble as soon as he recognizes that Jordan's about to free up on the roll. Then he waits for the perfect moment to sneak the ball inside. That anticipation is another staple for all-time great playmakers, and Chris was no exception. He knew when and where his teammates would open up before they even knew it, which made him completely unpredictable. Oftentimes he'd actually create those openings himself by manipulating the defense. He made great use of his eyes, staring down one target before dropping it off to another, and this meant he could move defenders around like chess pawns. While driving out of the pick and roll, he's staring down Griffin the entire time, but actually he's reading these two defenders to see how they'll react. They abandon the corner, so he kicks it out without looking, which of course lands right on the money. He could also trick defenders by blending his deliveries together. He's a threat to make that shovel pass, and by faking it, he creates a bigger opening to lob it up top. You'll notice that a lot of these passes end in high-quality shots, whether that's a dunk or a corner three, and the value of assists is another important thing to look at when comparing playmakers. If we define high-value assists as assists that end in either shots at the rim or from three, and we use those six years Chris Paul spent in LA, he averaged just under eight high-value assists every 75 possessions, which was the most in the NBA during that time. Even more impressive than the volume though, is the efficiency, and that's where CP3 made his mark. Thanks to playbyplaystats.com, we have bad pass turnover numbers going back to 2001, and if we take a look at the relationship between those turnovers and high-value assists, you'll notice a pretty interesting trend. Generating those high-value shots typically requires a lot of risk-taking, which is why some of the best seasons on record result in higher turnover numbers. James Harden in 2017 became the only player to get over 10 high-value assists in the 21st century, while Westbrook during that same season was the only player to get over three bad pass turnovers. For the ideal combination of both, you'd have to look at Steve Nash during his first MVP season, who many would argue is the perfect playmaker. Now if we start to add some of those Chris Paul years, he may not have the sheer volume of some of these other guys, but his bad pass turnover numbers are always incredibly low, to the point where he almost looks like an outlier in a bunch of these seasons. There's a lot of information you can draw from this data, like the sheer longevity in having this many years of that caliber, or what I said about his timing and accuracy as a passer, which meant he was pretty much never making errors. I do think it's fair to say that he could have taken more risks, but it's also worth noting how much the system can play a role in numbers like this. That's why CP3's two highest seasons were his two years in Houston, playing under Daryl Morey and Mike D'Antoni in an offense that wanted nothing but dunks and threes. As we start to fill out the years, you'll see some Hornets, some Clippers, I think you get the idea. But actually capitalizing on opportunities as a passer without turning the ball over, is only a fraction of what it takes to be a great playmaker. To get the full story, you have to look a bit further into how these creators are pressuring the defense, and where exactly these assists are coming from. Paul's skill as a passer really stood out in the open floor. If there were ever teammates streaking in front of him, he'd hit them with pinpoint kickaheads to start the break. And because most of those runners were above the rim athletes, these finds and transition often ended up on a highlight reel. As a result, defenses had to first worry about protecting the paint from these finishers, to which he'd spray it out to one of his shooters for a high quality three. I talked about how he'd use his eyes as a tool to manipulate the defense. Here's one where he's able to create a two-on-one situation, and by staring down the wing, he actually sends LeBron on a closeout, only to send it to the corner for a JJ Redick jumper. It was impossible to speed him up. If there wasn't a decision to make right away, he'd pause and let the play materialize, yet another testament to that immaculate timing. And if he paused like this, but the defense over-indexed on taking away his teammates, that's when he'd call his own number as a scorer. There were so many different ways for him to put the ball in the basket. If he got inside the arc and nobody picked him up, he'd stop on a dime for a pull-up jumper. If it looked like a defender was ready to meet him inside the arc, but didn't jump out to the three-point line, he could step into a jumper from deep. And if a defender met him early enough to take away the pull-up three, chances are they weren't going to be able to stay in front of his hesitation. Thanks to cleaning the glass, we actually have transition numbers for all teams going back to 2004. And on there, you'll find a metric that accounts for both volume and efficiency called points added per 100 possessions in transition. During CP3's 6 years in LA, they were a top 5 transition offense by that measurement 3 times, had another top 10 appearance in 2015, and only fell below average once. With that said, fast breaks were only a bonus for that clipper scene. Their bread and butter was the slower paced, surgical half-court game, which is where Chris Paul's genius was most prominent. Because they had one of NBA history's best movement shooters in JJ Redick, a lot of their possessions started with set action to free him up on the perimeter. Of course, Paul was almost always the one initiating, and as a result of that accuracy and timing I talked about, JJ was able to get the ball right where he wanted it. Some of these are really tough passes to make, and they look routine for CP3, which results in easy offense. It didn't matter if JJ was running along the baseline with a screen to the corner and Paul was up top, the placement was always precise and right on time. Same thing if that screen was set towards the wing, and if a chasing defender ever tried to shoot the gap by going under, Paul could throw these passes a bit higher as JJ found some open space. He could also make all of these deliveries while on the move, so oftentimes they'd set these actions up with a decoy pick and roll to draw more attention to the ball as JJ curled towards the top of the key for one of his automatic jumpers. Sometimes you'd see JJ bring the ball up himself, and that was typically to get into these give and go actions, where he's gonna hit Paul in the pinch post, and immediately cut around him to receive a handoff with space to drive. And what this did, is it put Paul in a position to make various different reads. If he goes to hand the ball off, but his man drops to protect the rim, he'll fake and turn into a mid-range jumper. It wasn't just the jumpers that he threatened the defense with though. Here's another one where he fakes the handoff, only to turn into a live dribble isolation, where he uses his handle to get to the rim himself. I think it goes without saying, but in the event that he turned for one of these attacks, and any other defender tried to help, he'd find the open man for a quality look elsewhere. There were actually a ton of different things the clippers could do with Paul in that pinch post position. They could go to Golden State's signature split action, which was yet another way for JJ to free up for a jumper. Or they could empty that side of the court for a pick and roll going towards the middle. This time Paul's defender goes under, so he's got an automatic mid-range jumper, but on this one you're actually gonna see the defense try to trap him in the corner, to which he quickly hits a slip for some easy points. And the big key here, is the way he blended that all-time great passing, with just the right amount of pressure as a scorer. During these years, he wasn't nearly as explosive of a slasher as he was in New Orleans, but his handle and agility still allowed him to get into the defense pretty consistently. He's on a very short list of the best ball handlers ever, and was great at using hesitations as a way to speed up or slow down at various different points in his attack. Here's one where he's being pressured all the way out near half court by a defensive player of the year Kawhi Leonard, and with one right-hand hesitation he's easily getting around him. But instead of trying to beat him off of sheer speed, he pauses and uses his off-arm as a shield to stop Kawhi's momentum before continuing his attack. And that puts the rim protector in a tough position. If he beat his man off the dribble and that rim protector stepped up to meet him, he'd lob it up top for his big. But if the rim protector decided to either stay home or not fully commit, he'd put it up himself with some impressive touch. Considering the fact that he pretty much never made the wrong decision, when defenses found themselves in this position, it almost felt like they were guaranteed to give up a high percentage shot. It was imperative that the point of attack defender keep Paul in front of him. If that was the case though, he had a nice set of counters. He may have been small in terms of height, but he was incredibly strong, so with that low of a center of gravity, he could go right into the chest of defenders as a way to create separation. More times than not, he'd use these bumps not as a way to force himself to the rim, but to step back into a mid-range jumper. I talked about how he'd use hesitations as a way to change speeds. Those are made possible by his ability to stop on a dime. So when paired with his combination of strength and ball handling, he pretty much had unlimited access to the mid-range. As a result, that's where he did most of his damage as a scorer. Once again, using those six years he spent in LA, he attempted over 3200 mid-range shots and made a scorching 48.4% of them. To compare that to the rest of the league, here's a look at how everyone scored from the mid-range during that time. All the way on the right, you'll find some bigs who absolutely lived in that area of the floor like LaMarcus Aldridge and Al Jefferson. And more towards the middle, but up top you'll find the guys who called to it on occasion which to nobody's surprise happens to be a young Jokic and an old Nash. I'm sure most of you watching would assume that these two dots right here were the two best mid-range scorers in the league. And like I said, no surprises at the names. But even more efficient than both of those guys, while remaining near the top in volume, is where you'll find Chris Paul, who sort of lands right in the middle of these different groups. For reference, someone who attempted about the same amount of shots, but made them at a slightly lesser clip, was none other than Kevin Durant in the heart of his prime. All that's to say, you could make an argument that this version of CP3 was the best mid-range scorer in the league, and one of the top 10 or so mid-range scorers we've ever seen. I talked about how he'd use his handle and change of pace to get into the defense on drives. That's also how he often created space for these jumpers. Like I said, he could stop on a dime, so whenever he was able to get a defender leaning towards the basket, he'd slam the brakes and pull back into a quality look. He could also use those hesitations to threaten a drive without actually taking that first step. Like here, he hesitates with his left before crossing to his right, and just look at how much separation he's able to create with such a simple move. On this one he goes to that exact same left-hand hesitation, cross right, only to hesitate again before crossing back to his left, and that might as well be a warm-up jumper. However, it's no secret at all where most of these buckets, and really most of his offense in general was created. That of course being the pick and roll. It all started at the point of attack. I'm not sure we've ever seen a player better than Paul at manipulating screens to force his defender into making contact. One thing you'd see him do is just stand directly above the screen and wait to see which side his defender was going to play. Then he'd find open space by attacking the opposite side. Most of the time though, he was able to manipulate screens through the use of his handle, threatening to attack one way before quickly redirecting into a new lane, where he often found himself on an island. That initial move could be anything. On this one it's a half-spin to run Clarkson into Jordan, then he just has to attack a slower-footed big. This time it looks like he's going to the same move, only to complete the spin. Then he throws a double crossover as he instead rejects the screen where there's nobody else to stop him from getting to a floater. You never knew if he was manipulating these screens to create contact, or to explode in the opposite direction. With that hanging left-hand hesitation dribble, PJ's expecting a left-hand drive. So when he crosses right, PJ's essentially out of the play, and because the big doesn't step up, he's got an elbow jumper. Here's one that starts with one of those pick-and-rolls in the corner, and it's that exact same move to reject the screen, only this time the big commits to the ball, so he immediately shovels it to a rolling Blake Griffin. On this one they're going to set up with two screens, and he goes to that spin move to lose his defender. When the big steps up, it looks like he's throwing another shovel pass, only this one's a fake as he attacks on a drive. And this takes me back to what I said earlier about Paul blending his abilities as a passer and a scorer. After coming off of that screen, bigs had to make a decision, and he made sure that whatever decision they made was the wrong one. Most defenses were more concerned with his passing, especially to the roller, so they chose to sit back in a deep drop coverage. That's where the mid-range scoring really took over, as he had a seemingly unlimited amount of ways to take advantage of that space. Sometimes you'd see him pause for a brief moment, getting that defender stuck on either his hip or backside, then he'd hunt for a spot to get into his jumper. And this is really tough to defend, because not only is he making it a more difficult recovery, even if they did get back in time to contest, he could throw an up fake and still end up with a wide open look. Here's another one just like that where he comes off a screen, fakes a pull-up jumper to lose his man, but this time the big steps up to contest, so he drops it off to Jordan. He turned it into a game of pick your poison. If a dropping big chose to play the role instead of the ball, he'd find a very efficient shot for himself. And if a dropping big chose to step up and take away that space, he'd find a way to create the best shot for his team. Essentially, he was putting these bigs in an impossible spot, because if he came off that screen with a 2-on-1 advantage, there was pretty much nothing they could do to stop him. As a result, it usually took the help of a third defender sliding down from the weak side to tag the role, to which Paul would of course find the open man for a quality three. This is often where you'd see him weaponize his eyes. On this one, he's staring down Jordan as he gathers, so Thomas starts to drop from the corner, except it's actually a no-look skip pass to the sharp shooting Redick. And that works both ways. Here's one where Duncan steps up to take away the mid-range, which puts Kawhi in a 2-on-1 situation on the weak side. Paul stares down the corner to send Kawhi on a closeout, only to drop it in for an easy two. It's also worth noting that whoever the weak side defender was that was rotating down had to be a legitimate presence at the rim, because if it was a less athletic wing like Bellinelli, he was not gonna get up with one of LA's lob threats. It didn't matter where the help was coming from or how disguised it was, CP3 saw everything. Rodney Stuckey starts to cheat over just a little bit from the opposite wing, which is all it takes for a fastball to hit Jamal Crawford right in the shooting pocket. In the event that he came off a screen, and there wasn't an immediate read to make as either a passer or scorer, that's when he'd use his live dribble to continue hunting for opportunities. One thing he completely mastered was snaking the screen. And if you're unfamiliar with that term, it means that after using it, he's gonna immediately cut back to the side he started on to find some open space. Like I keep going back to, if nobody stepped up to meet him as he attacked horizontally, he'd just keep going until he finds the shot that he wants. But actually what he did want was for the big to start chasing him, because that's what opened up the lob. As one of the best ball handlers ever, he was more than comfortable navigating through these tight spaces on the floor without picking up his dribble. That's really important, because on a play like this where he builds up downhill momentum, and doesn't really have any room to pull up for a jumper while everyone else is covered, he can just continue his drive as he probes across the lane and finds that opening. Those extra dribbles under the basket are most commonly known as gnashing, of course named after Steve Nash, and Paul took full advantage of them. Because he was able to get into the defense and around bigs with so much consistency, he routinely found himself underneath the basket. Not only was he a threat to turn and shoot, but to continue doing what he did best. In general, he was just so dangerous whenever he found himself operating near the paint. He'd use his handle and speed to pull defenders with him wherever he went, and at the perfect moment would find one of his teammates with a pinpoint dime. So the focal point of LA's half-court offense was finding as many ways as possible to get Chris Paul attacking downhill. One way they liked to do that was by setting up in horns. That's where he crosses half-court, and two of his teammates are setting a ball screen on either side of him. He could attack left or right, and from there would make reads based on how the rest of the defense reacted. Typically, they'd have DeAndre Jordan as one of the screeners, and any one of their shooters as the second. Jordan's of course going to dive at the rim while the shooter pops, and the coverage has to be executed to perfection. If the third defender decided to just stay home in fear of the three-pointer, that led to those two-on-one advantages that Paul completely abused. Then if the third defender stayed home, but a fourth dropped from the weak side to tag the roll, well we already know how that goes. And all that's to say, it was probably in the defense's best interest to keep Chris Paul as far away from the paint as possible. That usually means going to a more aggressive coverage like a blitz or a hedge, but even that couldn't always keep him from getting downhill. He had the handle and agility to split down the middle, then he had the tools to carve out space in the mid-range, or fake that to create something at the rim. If there wasn't an angle to split these coverages down the middle, he'd continue his attack around that second defender, all while making it look effortless. When taking an extra dribble or two to get around a hedge or a trap, it usually wasn't a drive he was looking to create though. Rather, he was hunting for more playmaking opportunities, and what needs to be said about his passing that hasn't been said already. Some teams would try icing the screen, and that's meant to push the ball towards the sideline while the big prepositioned himself to take away a drive. Of course, that not only leaves the middle of the floor vulnerable to plays like this, it also puts that big in a position where they're gonna have to deal with Paul's in-between game, which we've determined to be pretty good by this point. That really only leaves one other option, going under the screen to protect all of that space inside the arc, and that's when he'd show off his final counter off the dribble threes. We only have pull-up shooting numbers going back to 2014, but that still leaves us with 4 years of CP3 on the Clippers, and during those 4 years, he attempted 780 pull-up threes, while making a healthy 36% of them. No, he wasn't Steph Curry, but it was more than enough to make the defense pay for leaving him with space, and enough to keep the defense honest on plays like this where he hesitates to threaten the jumper, before finding Jordan for a wide-open dunk. When you account for everything I talked about, from the midrange game, to the ball handling and passing, to the 3-point shooting, I think you could make a very serious argument that Chris Paul during these years, was the best pick-and-roll ball handler in NBA history. And opposing defenses knew that as well, so oftentimes to save themselves the headache, you'd see a lot of teams just elect to switch these actions. Little did they know, this still created a huge advantage for the Clippers to attack, in the form of a CP3 isolation. 1-on-1 scoring probably isn't the first thing that comes to mind when you think of his game, but when it came to mismatch hunting, there were very few better. He'd walk the slower-footed defenders down, and because they were so worried about him using his speed on a drive, he always had access to quality jumpers. We only have playtype data going back to 2016, leaving us with 2 Clippers years, and he actually landed in the top 15 in isolation volume in both seasons. Even more impressive is the efficiency though, as he scored about 1 point per possession on these opportunities. I actually want to add some more context as to how good some of these numbers are. Here's a look at the league average half-court offense in each season during that 6-year span. The average team consistently landed in the mid-to-high 0.8 points per possession, only getting over 0.9 in 2017. Now compare these marks to some of what Chris Paul offered. His 48% mid-range shots were worth about 0.97 points per attempt. His 36% pull-up threes were worth about 1.08 points per attempt. As I said, his isolations were worth about 1 point per attempt, and his pick-and-roll scoring was just a touch lower at 0.95. All of these numbers are just his own individual shot making though, and don't even get into the passes that lead to open threes, dunks, or anything in between. I feel like now's also a good time to mention that when you combine the low-error passing with all-time handling, you're left with a guy who quite literally never turned the ball over, averaging just over 2 turnovers a game to go along with his 10 assists during those 6 years. And the point I'm trying to get at is that I can't stress enough how high of a floor your team has offensively when the ball is in CP3's hands. Whether it's in transition, setting up off-ball action, in pick-and-roll or isolation, he's pretty much guaranteed to produce a good shot for either himself or a teammate every single time down the floor, which means that he can produce results next to any collection of players. That's why his indicators of offensive impact are off the charts. During his time with the Clippers, it didn't matter who he was playing with, they were going to have a great offense. You can start with something as simple as on vs off, a scorching 116 offensive rating with him on the floor, and a measly 103.6 whenever he sat down. But I think it's more telling to break it down by player. Like I said, they had a 116 offensive rating in all of his minutes. If you only look at the minutes he played without Blake Griffin, that number is still 113.5. If you only look at the minutes he played without JJ Redick, that number is still 114.5. If you only look at the minutes he played without DeAndre Jordan, that number is still 112.3. And finally, if you take all three of those guys away from him, that number is still 111.6 in over 500 minutes of play. For context, the league's average offensive rating during that time was 106.6. If we go back to the graphic that showed the average half court offense, and add what the Clippers were doing, it becomes clear just how good of a floor general CP3 was, producing a top 6 half court offense every year, and peaking at number one in 2015. That's without even getting into some other key areas of his game. He wasn't playing off the ball much, but I think he offered some really nice skills, such as the fact that he was lights out as a catch and shoot guy, and he was an incredible connector, consistently making the reads as an extra passer or attacker off the catch. So when needed, other guys could initiate offense, or they could go to something like a Blake Griffin post up and still expect Paul to bring value in different ways. Then if that wasn't enough to be sold on him as a player, what if I told you that he was also one of the best defensive guards of the 21st century, making the all defensive first team in every single season he played for the Clippers. I'll just come out and say what everyone else is scared to say. Chris Paul is one of the best players ever. Whether that means top 15, top 20, I don't know, but the blend of scoring, passing, and defense is really unlike anything we've ever seen from a point guard. And I know what people will say about 2-0 leads, rings, and whatnot, but if you actually dive into his performances, you could even make the argument that he's actually been better come postseason time. For the purpose of getting a bigger sample size, instead of limiting it to the Clippers years, I'll use 15 seasons. We'll start in 2008 when he made his first all-star team, and we'll stop in 2022 when he made his last. In the regular season, he averaged about 18 points, 10 assists, and 2.5 turnovers. He shot 52% from 2, 37% from 3, and had a true shooting percentage of 58.9. In the playoffs, his scoring jumped to over 20 points a game, while his assists dropped to 8, and his turnovers stayed about the same. With an increase in scoring volume, his percentage from 2 and 3 both got better, as his true shooting percentage also stayed about the same. To have those sort of marks as a scorer, while not even accounting or adjusting for opposing defenses, tells me that he could clearly up his scoring aggression as needed, and enter more of a takeover mode. It sucks that luck, injuries, and the occasional bad performance left him without a championship during his prime. But don't let that take away from what he was capable of doing on the court. The surgical inside the arc scoring, the all-time great passing, he was the true definition of a floor general, and rightfully holds the title of point god. If you enjoyed this breakdown, make sure to drop a like, subscribe, and turn my post notifications on to be first on more content. If you're interested in my more in-depth research, make sure to check out my website and social media profiles. You can find those links in the description. Feel free to let me know down in the comments what you think of CP3. As always, I hope you all have a great day, and I'll catch you guys in the next one.