The Atlanta Braves Uphill Battle to Get Into the Postseason

The Atlanta Braves offense on Thursday gave us a reminder of what 2023 felt like as they pounded out six home runs and a 15-3 win over the Reds. They're going to need to continue that hot hitting as they go down to Miami where the Braves cannot let up at all, especially with the return of Ozzie Alves. Hopefully that good offense continues. We'll take a look at everything happening around the league and those NL wildcard races as well as the AL wildcard race that is really tight. All that on today's episode of Locked on Braves. So, let's get into it. You are Locked on Braves. Your daily Atlanta Braves podcast. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network. Your team every day. Hey, welcome back to Locked on Braves. Part of Locked on Sports Atlanta where we cover your favorite Atlanta sports teams each and every day. I'm your host Jake Mastroianni. You can follow me on social media at shortstopball. Check out the podcast at Locked on underscore Braves. Subscribe on YouTube if you're new. Please hit that thumbs up button as it does help the show a ton whenever you do that. Leave me a comment down below. Had some of you that said you left a comment just to help out the algorithms. Hey, I enjoy the extra conversation down there but I appreciate that as well. Also, if you're listening on the audio version, you leave me a five-star review on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. On today's episode, we'll touch on the 15-3 win on Thursday over the Cincinnati Reds. The home run parade happening for the Atlanta Braves. Will that continue with the return of Ozzie Alves? We'll get into that later in the episode. In the middle, we'll talk about everything happening around the league, the division races, who's clinching a postseason spot, what do the wild card races look like and that guy Shohei Ohtani did something pretty special as well that we'll discuss. Now through September 22nd, all FanDuel customers can bet $5 and get a three-week free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV. Just visit FanDuel.com to get started. The Atlanta Braves do come back and win a series over the Reds in pretty fine fashion with a 15-3 win, a season-high run scored total for the Atlanta Braves in 2024, something that it felt like the Braves did every week in 2023. There haven't been too many times this year where you have come away from a game or a two-game stretch like the Braves just had. And honestly, on Tuesday, they scored five runs. That feels like a ton this year. But you don't come away from too many games this year feeling like you did in 2023, where it was just easy. You saw these types of games almost weekly where the Braves offense just blew out their opponent, and especially an opponent that they should blow out. And again, I want to be positive because this is a positive outcome, but again, I think we're all going to be looking back at this season if the Braves missed the postseason and say, why didn't you do six home runs for three-run homers? But why did you not take advantage of these types of games against pitchers like this? We've seen so many times this year where bad pitchers having bad seasons are able to just dominate the Braves, but that was not the case in this game, as the offense was able to do exactly what they needed to do. And sometimes, you know, Chris Sale is on the mound, and you feel like you don't need to do much. I talked about this yesterday. I said, no matter what happens with Chris Sale, who did not have his best game, but still managed to get through five innings, only two earned runs allowed, but I said, despite whatever is happening on the mound, you just continue to add on. Put this game away, and that's exactly what the offense did. Ramon Laureano, Matt Olsen, Jorge Soler, and Michael Harris all had three-run homers on the day. Olsen and Michael Harris each homered twice. Great to see it from those two guys. And I posted this on X at Shortstop Ball if you want to follow me there, where I give out every now and then some good nuggets like this, but I talked about Matt Olsen. If you take out the month of July, and look, I know you can't do that. That's cherry-picking. Take out the worst month for any player, and his numbers are going to look better, but clearly the month of July is an outlier that was just awful, dreadful for Matt Olsen. You take that out, and look at Matt Olsen's numbers on the year. He's slashing 254, 337, 466, with an 803 OPS. Now, yes, we still expect more than that out of Matt Olsen, but it's maybe not the dreadful year that a lot of Braves fans think it has been, again, outside of that month of July. And a 24% strikeout rate is really good, and that's what it has been, again, taking out that month, and a 10% walk rate. So, again, I know you can't do this. The entire thing counts, but you take out that one really bad month, and Matt Olsen's been a really good player. And I also think, and you can say this as an excuse if you want to, I think Matt Olsen suffered as much, if not more than anybody from the dead baseballs in the first half of the season. Go back if you don't want to, but go back and just think in your mind. I wouldn't go back and watch it. I don't advise that. How many times in the first half of the season did Matt Olsen crush a baseball that died on the warning track? How many of those patented opposite-field, left-center-field shots that we see from Matt Olsen just die at the warning track? I know they talked about it in the middle of the season, the fact that Matt Olsen hadn't hit any opposite-field home runs. It's not because of lack of effort. He was crushing baseballs that way, just like he did the year before. He just wasn't getting the carry on the baseball that we're used to. So, again, I'm not sitting here trying to make an excuse for Matt Olsen. Maybe I am, but I think for the most part, he has been the Matt Olsen that you wanted this year, not to that MVP level, but he certainly has been really good, and he's been excellent over the last month and a half now since the end of July, and OPS over 9,000, and so that is certainly great to see. Got a chance to get to 30 home runs on the year now. He's at 90 RBI on the season, and it did not look like that at the halfway mark. He was going to come close to approaching those numbers, so certainly great to see from Matt Olsen, and hopefully it continues, and if the Braves are going to get anywhere in these last couple of weeks, if they're going to get into the postseason, you're going to need Matt Olsen to stay hot like that, and you're going to need Marcelo Zuna to find that home run stroke again. You're going to need Jorge Soler to be the guy that they traded for Michael Harris on down and down. These guys have got to step up. We can talk about the injuries, but it's also the fact that a lot of the Braves big hitters who have been in there have not been producing, but that was not the case on Thursday. As you saw, Michael Harris with a huge game, a monster game. He and Jorge Soler helping my fantasy baseball team in the semifinals this week, so thank you so much for that, but again, if you can get those guys going at the top, and then you get Ozzie Alves back, and you get Razor Ramon just crushing baseballs as he had, again, another big home run on the day, just missed a home run the night before, suddenly this lineup looks pretty potent and looks a little bit deeper, and again, if you can get those catchers going, whether Travis Darnot or Sean Murphy, you're talking six, seven hitters in this lineup that, you know, at least on paper, based on their track record, should be really, really good. Now, you didn't need that many runs on this day because you did have Chris Sale pitching, and even though it wasn't his best game, five innings, five hits, two walks, just two earned runs allowed, six strikeouts on 93 pitches, and I think if you're a Braves fan, and you're looking at the baseball savant, player breakdown for him, you're seeing that velocity down two miles per hour, and you are obviously and rightfully concerned for a guy who has not thrown this much in a long time, a guy that has battled injuries over the last four years, I think there is reason to be concerned, but he talked about it after the game, and he said he's not worried about it. It was a hot day, an early game, and he just didn't have a good feel for that fastball, so I'm not going to concern myself with it. His last start out, I mentioned the fact that he takes his velocity up a notch going against the Dodgers, so he also just didn't need it, especially when the Braves put up all those runs. You could dial it back a little bit to just try to command, but the command obviously, honestly, was not quite there either, so again, it was not a great start for Chris Sale, and he still only got two earned in five innings, and he had 18 lifts, so even a start like this for Chris Sale, where the velocity is not there, doesn't quite have a feel for his fastball, that slider is still good enough, no matter what else is going on, to get swings and misses, get outs, get through five innings, and give your team a chance to win, and the fact that the offense, once again, added on late. You didn't have to use any of your big bullpen arms, and that is great. The more you can do that to try to get those guys rested for hopefully not the Marlins series, but if you have to in that Marlins series, but more so for that Mets and Royals series at the end of the year, you want to try to have your bullpen arms as fresh as possible, so any wins like this that you can get, where you don't have to use your big bullpen arms, is a definite big win this time of year, and we talked a lot about the offensive side of things and the pitching, but there was a huge double play early in this game, when it was still close. You had Orlando Garcia and Witten Merrifield turn an incredible double play. I thought they had no shot off the bat, and that was going to be a run scored if they don't turn it, but somehow they do. A great feed by Orlando Garcia, a great turn from Witten Merrifield, who his defense has been really good at second base. Nobody wants to talk about it, but you have seen the difference defensively between Ozzie Alves and Witten Merrifield, and what we've been missing defensively at second base. I say all that, Ozzie Alves is my second baseman, that's where he's going to be, but look, if you are just an honest observer of second base defense, it is a vastness between what Ozzie Alves has given you here the last couple of years and what we have seen from Witten Merrifield there at second base. There have been so many double plays, I feel like he's turned, that Ozzie just doesn't turn. He can't turn. With the weak arm and just his long delivery, there's been so many double plays that Ozzie has not been able to turn. I did not mean to turn this into a pessimistic conversation about Ozzie Alves' defense, but I more so just wanted to highlight how great Witten Merrifield has been there. We'll see. Maybe the Braves still shift him over there to second base late in games. That would obviously tell you something about how the Braves feel about Ozzie as a defense at second base, but I think it's been that dramatic of a difference. Let me know your comments. What do you think? Has Witten Merrifield been that much better defensively than Ozzie Alves that maybe you think about him as a defensive replacement late in games? Would the Braves even do that? I don't think they would, but I wouldn't mind hearing your thoughts on that. Alright, next, we'll take a trip around the league, everything happening around Major League Baseball, update on the standings, who's clinched a postseason spot. We'll talk a lot about that wild card race. What do the Braves need to do to get into the postseason? We'll discuss all that here next. For most of us who like collecting cards, the idea of spending two grand or more on a Ronald Acuna Jr. or a Mike Trout Rookiato or a Shohei Otani, obviously his price is going to be through the roof right now. 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Thank you for making LockedOn Braves your first listen of each and every day. Go make your second listen to LockedOnMLB podcast solely getting you covered for everything happening around Major League Baseball, just like we're about to do on this episode, but he does it every day over there on LockedOnMLB. Check it out on YouTube, wherever you get your podcasts, part of LockedOn Podcast Network. It is your team every day. We got one more show coming your way on the podcast this week. Obviously, me and Grant will have you covered on LockedOn Sports Atlanta with some postcasts over the weekend. We'll have our mailbag episode Friday afternoon probably around 1 or 2 p.m. Central, so look out for that and join me if you can. Alright, let's get into our Around the League segment as the season is winding down, less than two weeks away. Look, I want this Braves team to make the postseason, certainly do. This year has felt like a grind. I don't know about you. I love baseball and I will watch it all year round. This season has been a bit of a drag for many different reasons. We talked about it several weeks ago. The fact you take out the most exciting players on your favorite team is going to be a bit of a downer of a season, but still, Braves got a chance here down the stretch if they can take care of business. The Yankees are up four games on the Orioles. The Orioles are 3 and 7 in their last 10 games. They did get a walk-off win on Thursday after they blew a game in the ninth inning. They just let Kimbrel go. That bullpen is a mess and it is costing them right now, but they're still pretty safely in the postseason picture despite falling back in the AL East. The Guardians are up 6.5 on the Royals and the Twins after they walked off the Twins on Thursday, so they're looking pretty in the AL Central. The Astros are up 4.5 on the Mariners. Those two teams have a three-game series in Seattle next week, so depending on what happens over the weekend, that will be or could potentially be a very entertaining series. The Phillies are up 7 on the Mets. They got an opportunity to clinch things this weekend, at least a postseason berth as they're playing the Mets, but they didn't really do it, or they did not do it on Thursday night. Braves are hoping that the Phillies can get things done this weekend. The Brewers clinched their division already, first ones to clinch a division, and the Dodgers are up 4 on the Padres. Those two teams have a three-game series in LA next week, so again, could have a couple of interesting division races, head-to-head races happening next week, as well as the big Braves and Mets series. You look at the postseason picture, who's punched their tickets so far? The Yankees have clinched a playoff spot. I mentioned the Brewers. They've clinched the division. The Guardians clinched a playoff spot with their walk-off win on Thursday. The Dodgers clinched a playoff spot with their big win over the Marlins, scoring 20 runs. Braves are hoping that they can do that to the Marlins this weekend, so you got four teams who are guaranteed in the postseason at this moment. Several of the teams are looking pretty good, like they're going to make it. The NL wildcard race, obviously what most of us here are excited about and are thinking about every day, every moment of the day. The Padres are up two games on the Mets and the Diamondbacks, who are up two games on the Braves. Just gotta be honest, at this point, a week and a half left, being two games back does not feel great. If you did not have that Mets series on the schedule, I'd probably feel even worse, but you at least control your own destiny if you can win those games, and obviously you gotta win those other games in the Marlins series and the Royals series to end it, but the Braves still do control their own destiny, but it is going to be a tough battle. You have got to get things done. Last year, 84 wins got you into the postseason, and the Diamondbacks did and went all the way to the World Series with that. This year, you're likely going to have to get to 88 wins or more. The Diamondbacks and the Mets already at 84 wins, the Braves at 82, you're likely going to have to get 88 or more wins just to get into one of those three wildcard spots this year, and that would be so 2024 Braves for it to be a year where you gotta get 90 wins to get into a wildcard spot, something you're not going to see most seasons, but it just feels like that type of year for the Braves, where it's going to take something incredible to keep them out of the postseason, whether it's just a ton of injuries, a lot of batted ball luck not going their way, and just a couple of other teams who went ridiculous down the stretch like the Mets have, the Padres, the Diamondbacks, they just push them out because they're playing amazing baseball. In the AL wildcard race, the Orioles are on the top by a good bit despite their recent rough stretch. The Royals are behind them despite going 4-6 in their last 10 games, and the Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 games, which now has them tied with the Twins for the final AL wildcard spot. So you got a couple of wildcard teams. I wish the NL wildcard teams were struggling as much as some of the AL wildcard teams right now, but that is not the case, but it has allowed the Tigers to get into the postseason pitcher, and that was one of my sleeper teams coming into the year. Now, I had them as a sleeper to win that division, but I thought the Tigers could make big improvements this year with that pitching staff, and they certainly have. It's been a good story down the stretch, and the Central, the AL Central has been much better than a lot of people thought coming into the season, so those are your, that's your postseason pitcher right now. Now, the biggest story happening around Major League Baseball, Shohei Ohtani in that big win for the Marlins or for the Dodgers over the Marlins on Thursday. Ohtani goes 6-6. He has three home runs. He gets the 50-50, and he has 10 RBI in the game. Just truly incredible. Look, I feel like because of who he signed for, because of all the attention he gets that we've all kind of grown leery of Shohei Ohtani and just the talk that he gets, I hope it doesn't keep us from just recognizing the incredible talent that he is because it truly is remarkable what he's doing. Whether or not you think he's getting different baseballs than the Atlanta Braves are, he is a truly unique talent and individual, and a year after Ronald goes 40-70. He goes 50-50. Hopefully Ronald can come back and go 60-60 and one-up him again. But again, just a remarkable year for Shohei Ohtani, who's an incredible player and incredible talent. I know we all want to cheer against him. It's a thing just to do, but again, it has been just an amazing year for him, and he's not even pitching. Now, I don't think he can do this. If he does this while he's pitching next year, and he's pitching like a Cy Young, then hands down, he's the greatest player to ever play the game, and he may be anyway, but just again, remarkable talent, remarkable player, doing amazing things. He's just unfortunately doing in a Dodgers uniform. Why couldn't he just stay in Anaheim and continue to do it with the Angels? I would feel much better respecting him and enjoying him, but again, don't take away, don't let your ire for him take away just an incredible talent that he is and an amazing season that he is having. It makes me miss Ronald because we all had thoughts of him coming into this year and having a 50-50 season, and then we have to watch somebody else do it on a team that the Braves have gone head-to-head against in big spots over the last several years, but that is some of what's happening around Major League Baseball as, again, the season gets ready to wind down. Next, we'll turn our attention to the Marlins series, and the Braves have put themselves in a spot where you gotta sweep, and sweeps aren't easy, and you're gonna have to win at least five in a row going into that Met series, but that's what has to happen over the weekend in Miami. You're gonna get some help with Ozzie Alves coming back, but how can the Braves get it done? We'll discuss that here next. You've heard us talk a lot about FanDuel here on the podcast because they are America's number one sportsbook. 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You can check out all that over at FanDuel.com Make sure you also visit FanDuel.com for tools and resources to help you stay in control of the way you play. Again, that's FanDuel.com to download America's number one sportsbook. The Atlanta Braves head down to Miami for a three-game series. And look, we don't have to say it anymore. Every game the rest of the way is must-win. I mean, it's not hyperbole to say the Braves just cannot afford to lose any more games. At the most, you can maybe afford to lose one or two games the rest of the way, maybe three, but that's it. Your margin for error is very, very slim, and you've put yourself in this situation because you've lost games that you should win to teams like the Marlins, the White Sox, the Rockies, on and on and on, the Nationals, teams that you should beat, even with a depleted lineup, and the Braves haven't done that, and that's why they find themselves in the spot that they are in, where they just cannot afford to lose any more games, but especially going up against the Marlins, you cannot drop a game in this series. This is a triple-A Marlins team that you are facing, and these are games that you must have. I talked about this on the Postcast, which we recorded earlier on Thursday night. Make sure you go back and give that a listen. Good discussion with me and Grant McCauley there. I think it was, anyway. But on there, I talked about the fact every game the rest of the way has to be treated like a must-win Game 7 postseason. If Charlie Morton doesn't have it in the fourth inning of a game, get somebody up and ready to go. That has to be the mentality the rest of the way. You cannot let games get away from you. If you see a starter struggling, if you see a reliever that is struggling, look, you put Pierce Johnson into a game in a close game right now, and suddenly that curveball just isn't working, you better have Dylan Lee, Joe Jimenez, somebody up, ready to go to come in and bail him out if needed. All these games have to be treated like postseason games the rest of the way. And it is going to take some managing on the job of Brian Snicker, because you're going to have some guys on your bench now that can come in and play a role for you because whether it is Gio Urshela or Whit Merrifield going to the bench, you are going to have guys that can come up and get some hits for you, whether Jared Kelnick coming in to face O'Reilly. Whatever the case may be, Brian Snicker is going to have to do some managing down the stretch if the Braves are going to get into postseason. And I feel like you have to treat every single one of these games as if it is a Game 7, and you absolutely must win. And that has to be the mentality going up against the Marlins. Yes, these are games you should win, but these are games you have lost and let get away from you all year long. That cannot happen this weekend. This has to be a sweep. You cannot go into that Met Series back more than two games, which is what you are right now. And I think you need to go into that series at least just one game back, if not tied. If you go in one game back and you win the series and that you finish the season series with a head-to-head winning record over them, then that gives you another little edge. That's like being one game up on the Mets at that point. But you can't lose any more ground to the Mets, and you need to at least pick up one game over the weekend. Of course, you're going to need some help from the Phillies to be able to do that, but you're going to have to pick up at least one game on the Mets this weekend to give yourself the best chance going into that series. Facing a Mets team that is really good and playing really good baseball, but the Braves, it starts this weekend. You cannot let one of these games get away against the Marlins. You have to win every game. Now, breaking down this series really quickly, the Marlins offense, Connor Norbury, top prospect from the Orioles that they got in a trade deadline deal. He has an 8.53 OPS in his last 24 games with six home runs. He also has a ton of strikeouts over that stretch, but he has delivered with some power for the Marlins since joining them. Otto Lopez hitting 330 in his last 26 games with 10 doubles. Jesus Sanchez has swung the bat better as of late, or well as of late, despite not showing a lot of power even though we know that's in there for him. Xavier Edwards was looking like one of their brightest stars before getting hurt at the end of August, and coming back he hasn't been as good, but again, he was having a really good season before the injury, so those are some names to watch for the Marlins offense, but again, this has to be a series that you just go in there and you have to dominate. You have to. This is your last chance. If you go in there and you drop one of these games to the Marlins and you go into that Mets series back at least two games, you're going to have to sweep at that point, and that is a lot to ask against a team like the Mets that has been playing really, really good baseball, and you look at the pitching matchups in this series for the Braves, you're going to have Charlie Morton, you're going to have Max Reed, and then you're going to have potentially Grant Holmes, is what it's scheduled to be right now, so you have two of your worst starters going in this series as well. Now, Morton has been better as of late, especially over the last seven starts, but you're going to need your offense to play. You're going to need your offense to do what they did in that Reds series, and look, I know they dropped the game on Tuesday, but at least the offense scored five runs. You are going to need the offense to win you some of these games, and to make some of these games much more relaxed and easy wins, so that you can save some of that bullpen. So again, the offense has really struggled all year, and it's hurt the Braves in these spots. That cannot be the case this weekend against the Marlins. You have to be able to score runs, give your pitchers plenty of runs, and make these easy wins for the Atlanta Braves. Don't know who all is throwing right now for the Marlins, especially on that Saturday game. The other two guys are guys I've never even heard of. Just do what you're supposed to do, and go win these ballgames. You do look at Belazo, the guy who's going to be pitching on Friday. 24-year-old right-handed pitcher. Has a 3.70 ERA and a 1.29 whip, but it's a 5.08 expected ERA on the season. Just 39 strikeouts and 58 in the third innings. Three starts in September. It's a 2.16 ERA and a 1.14 whip. Four walks to seven strikeouts. He's 0-2 in that stretch, so he has been throwing better in September, but overall, the expected stats, or expected numbers, don't really like him. It's a four-seamer that averages 89.1 miles per hour. Cutter, change-up, curveball. The change-up and curve have some good whip rates on it. The sweeper as well, a pitch that he uses against righties. Just a 29% ground ball rate, so a guy that lets the ball get in the air, but this is not the same ballpark in Cincinnati. A little bit harder to get him out in Miami, despite what the Dodgers did there on Thursday. Bottom line, go out and get this guy. Again, it's pitchers like this that you have let dominate you all year long. That was not necessarily the case in Cincinnati, although I know Jacob Junius had a good game there. Just go out and do what you're supposed to do. You're getting Ozzie Albies back in this lineup. The other guys in the lineup, Solaire, Michael Harris, Olsen, Laureano, they've all been swinging a good bat. Carry that momentum into this series. Please, for once this year, let the offense have a good 5-6 game stretch, hopefully through the end of the season, but let the offense carry you over the weekend and rest up your pitching staff for that Mets series. That is my hope. That is my goal. It's not always that easy when we just look at it on paper. Charlie Morton I mentioned, he'll be on the mound Friday. A seven straight start of allowing three earned or less. He's been really good. He's faced the Marlins twice this year. Gave up six earned runs to them in April, but just one unearned run when he faced them back in July. It's the same thing with Charlie Morton. Even in this good stretch, there's been a one or two inning stretch where he has just lost it. He's lost the command. He hits a batter. He walks a batter. You just hope that that doesn't follow with a two or three run home run. If he can avoid that, then Charlie Morton can be really, really good like he has been over the last month and a half. You really need that to continue. In my mind, the pitching has carried you all season long. In this series in particular, I want to see the offense carry you. I want to see the offense continue what they did in that red series and just pile up runs. Whether it comes by the home run or not, I want to see this offense continue to have good at-bats, to pile up pressure inning after inning and put some runs on the board and make it about them. That the team wins because of them and not put so much pressure on this pitching staff where, again, you're throwing two of your worst starters. Not that Charlie Morton's been bad necessarily, but you're throwing your fourth and fifth starter. You need your offense to step up in this series. Hopefully, that is the time for it to happen. They got a chance. This team is good enough. You still have everything in front of you to get it done. As much as a grind as this season has been, as I talked about at the top, as much as it has been a tough season to watch as a Braves fan because so much of this fun that made this team fun has been injured. Now, you still have an opportunity in front of you. I still believe that this team can get it done, but you got to take care of business this weekend to set you up for a chance in the final week of the season. Before we head out of here though, I did want to mention one of my favorite Braves of all time. Charlie Culberson announced his retirement. I just wanted to throw that out there. I know Braves country loves Charlie Culberson, so go give him some love wherever he is. Social media, Instagram, whatever. Just let Charlie Morton know how much we loved him here. I loved him here. Some big moments. Again, just generally seemed like a great human being. I wanted to mention that. Charlie Culberson announcing his retirement. Thank you so much to Brown Cow. Cherith Bandwagon, making it in here from beginning to end. I appreciate you being here. Lauro Vaughn, Johnny Littley. I appreciate the discussion, the wild one. Annoying hiking trail. I don't know that I've seen that one in there. Braves Thrills was here from beginning to end as well. Really appreciate you all joining me here. We'll be back live tomorrow afternoon for our mailbag episode, so make sure you join me for that as well. Thank you for making Lockdown Braves your first listen of the day. Go check out Lockdown MLB for your second listen. Check out the Braves and Marlins on SiriusXM on your SXM app. Search Braves. That will do it for this episode of Lockdown Braves. Subscribe on YouTube if you're new. Hit that thumbs up button. Leave me a comment. All that good stuff. Make sure that you rate, review, and subscribe to the Lockdown Braves podcast wherever you get your podcasts. We will talk to you next time.