（粵語）對庫爾斯克事件行動不利，俄軍高層動蕩｜【 #時事軍事】

Although there are still many speculations about the goal of Ukraine's special military action in Kyiv, there are finally some statements that seem to express Ukraine's official opinion. That is, Ukraine does not intend to permanently occupy Russian territory. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Mikhail Khrushchev, said on Aug. 13 that Ukraine is not interested in taking over the territory of Kyiv. If it is almost able to use the long-range weapons provided by the United States Ukraine's main goal is to strike the Russian border and threaten Ukraine's territory in order to better protect the lives of the people of Ukraine. This is why Ukraine is willing to attack Russian troops in Ukraine to liberate these border areas. He said that almost all of the actions in Kyiv are implementing similar goals, making the Russian troops' logistics complicated Washington University's Senior Researcher, Daniel Fokkes, said that the Kremlin's message to the West shows that Ukraine is still strong and capable of winning the war. It also shows that Russia's threat of an escalation of the war is a fact. The psychological impact of the Kremlin will rekindle the spirit of Ukrainians and create a shadow for Russia. In fact, a certain degree of chaos seems to have begun to show up in Kremlin. The actions in Kyiv are forcing the Kremlin to respond to the Russian military command and to re-establish a countermeasure against the region attacked by the Ukrainian troops. Russian military spokesman Spokhak said on Aug. 13 that Putin has appointed a former Kremlin special agent Aleksei Kuznetsov, who is responsible for the defense of the Kyiv region. It seems that Kuznetsov has replaced the role of the Russian special agent Aleksei Kuznetsov in the region. Putin is ordered by Kuznetsov to supervise the progress of the anti-terrorist operation. But the main task is to defeat the Ukrainian armed forces. When the news of Kuznetsov's appointment by the former Kremlin special agent Kuznetsov was spread, Aleksei Kuznetsov seemed to ignore the intelligence warnings and called on the Ukrainian troops to prepare to launch armor-piercing attacks on Kyiv. As a result, his troops were attacked. According to Kremlin sources, Kremlin was disappointed by Aleksei Kuznetsov's way of dealing with the war. As the Ukrainian troops infiltrated the Kyiv region, similar allegations against Aleksei Kuznetsov began to circulate on Russian radio. Mikhail Zimenyuk, who served in the Russian Ministry of Defense, said on Russian radio that Kremlin did not think Aleksei Kuznetsov would be able to lead the Russian military to solve the Kyiv crisis without the participation of Moscow. It is speculated that Putin has appointed the Russian Federal Security Directorate Aleksandr Bolotnikov in charge of the Kyiv region. The War Research Institute believes that Putin's appointment of Bolotnikov is very likely. Temporary adjustments by senior military officials show that the previous Russian military action was a failure. President Vladimir Putin said on Aug. 12 This action is a disaster for Putin. Russia is bringing the war against other countries back to its homeland. The head of the Russian armed forces, Aleksandr Sergeyevich, said that he has almost controlled about 380 square kilometers of Russian territory. Former diplomat John Sullivan served as a U.S. ambassador to Moscow from 2020 to 2022. On Aug. 13, he said in an interview with the media The U.S. has taken too long to provide weapons to Russia. The reason is that Washington is worried that the risk of Putin's so-called red line will be exaggerated. Washington is almost the largest military backer, with a total budget of $5.6 billion. But these exchanges may cause Putin extreme concerns, especially due to the impact of his negotiations and the delay in or restriction of use. Sullivan said The U.S. has failed to meet Russia's war demands in time, and is delaying in terms of long-range and heavy weapons. In fact, after the Biden administration approved Western allies to provide F-16 fighter jets to Russia, and handed them over to Russia, and even after the Russian military entered the Russian territory and launched large-scale operations, all of these actions, which had been clearly identified as a red line by Putin, have so far not triggered Russia's extreme reaction. Sullivan said With the passage of time, people are beginning to understand Putin's mentality. The red line is just a means of intimidation. Ukraine's use of Western-backed weapons can strike a Kremlin target in Russia's absence of a disastrous response, and almost drove the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of the Black Sea. This fact proves that Putin's threat of a disastrous response has been overestimated. He said that Putin's concern over the red line should not be an important factor in the decision-making process. In fact, the U.S. has already participated in the war against Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Abandoning the diplomatic mandate of the United States as a hostile action, anything that should have happened would have happened long ago. And why did what the red line described not happen? Because from the beginning, they didn't dare to do it. Putin obviously didn't want to have a nuclear war with the U.S. No sane person would do that. Putin is not a real lunatic. Russia will not use nuclear weapons. It's easy to say, but for those who have really formulated a policy, including the U.S. and Western leaders, this is a very serious choice. No matter how low the risk is, the consequences are very serious. The most pressing decision in the face of the U.S. and the West is whether to further let go of the restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western weapons to strike Russian domestic military targets. Kifu's attitude is, if the U.S. and the West let go of all the restrictions on long-range weapons, it could have prevented large-scale troops from entering the Russian territory. Because the advantage of the Russian military relying on a certain range outside the border area and not being attacked has already posed a fatal threat to Ukraine. Ukraine has no choice. Of course, this is just one aspect of the problem. Kifu, of course, will not compromise his entire action plan. Is the complete picture of the Fujihsuka operation still including Ukraine's desire to evacuate Russian troops from the eastern border, seize the Fujisuka nuclear power plant, the Suzaku Highway, and the railway connecting Fujisuka to Paris, as well as Ukraine's troops staying here for a few more days, and so on? Although Kifu says he will not take over Fujisuka, it is very likely that he will not do so in the short term. In addition to the tactical reasons, the political impact of the Fujisuka operation First of all, Ukraine to the world, especially to the Western allies, Ukraine still has a strong will to fight. It is worth it for the Western allies to continue to work for it. The US and Western aid are not here to extend the endless war, but to end the war as soon as possible. Whether it is to defeat the enemy on the battlefield or through diplomatic efforts. Second, the Ukrainian troops may be able to consolidate some of the Fujisuka territory that has been controlled. The Kremlin has seen a different prospect. It wants to weaken its strong position and lose its leadership in the war with Ukraine. It is not a question of whether Putin himself can accept it, but a question of the whole of Russia. Putin may lose support and legitimacy because of this. This is unlikely to happen in a possible diplomatic channel or in the end of the war negotiations to add points to Ukraine. Third, Ukraine is likely to pass this action. Even if it controls a small part of the Fujisuka area, it is likely to give the Fujisuka people a chance to re-election. Under the supervision of the international community, Fujisuka will be able to legally leave Russia and will have an impact on Belgrade and Bratislava. These three provinces have had a natural connection with Ukraine. Many residents still speak Ukrainian. This does not encourage Ukraine to divide Russia. It is through this possibility that the Kremlin has seen the serious consequences. It is not as arrogant and tough as it is now. Didn't Russia say that in 2022, the Russians in eastern Ukraine would be liberated from the new Russian Nazis? According to this logic, Ukraine can also claim that in 2024, the Ukrainians in western Russia would be liberated from the Russian Nazis. Or imagine that through larger-scale military efforts, the three provinces in western Russia would be exchanged for Donetsk, Lugansk, and Donetsk, as well as Crimea, which was occupied by Russia in 2014. Fujisuka may be proven to be Putin's lair. The Russian submarine Fujisuka sank in August 2000, a year after Putin took office. Or Putin was more willing to use the 1943 Fujisuka-Tank War as a comparison. At that time in Fujisuka, the Soviet army was destroyed by the German army. But from a historical point of view, the real lesson of this battle is that the invaders lost to the invulnerable and only able to fight to the end. As such, Putin may find that Fujisuka may be the turning point that led to the failure of his invasion of Ukraine. That's all for today. Thank you for watching. See you next time.