（粵語）以火炮爲主的消耗戰，對雙方都苦不堪言｜【 #時事軍事】

Now people don't doubt that the war in Ukraine is a war of consumption In this war, whoever has a long-lasting ground firepower advantage seems to be closer to victory If people only look at the numbers that are often quoted they will not be able to make a decision for Ukraine Although from different perspectives when observing the problem of ammunition supply there will be different understandings But people generally believe that Russia's ground firepower has a greater advantage than Ukraine The number of Russian ammunition fired on the battlefield is usually five times more than that of Ukraine and sometimes even ten times more Since the beginning of the war in 2022 the number of Russian shells fired every day has always been several times more than that of Ukraine In the disaster-prone attacks in June 2023 the difference in ground firepower has reached the peak The advantage of ammunition has made up for the lack of Russian equipment information on the battlefield and the lack of a command and control system The loss of Russian personnel and the loss of equipment can still be obtained, even if it is a small tactical progress This is enough to explain the indisputable decisiveness of ground firepower The United States and Europe have also promised to provide millions of shells to Ukraine this year But the work is not smooth After Ukraine's promise to help the United States and the Western military the frontline troops have not received sufficient ammunition A commander of the frontline troops in Ukraine said they can only fire a few shells a day to cover the 7-kilometer battlefield On the other hand the Russian troops' ammunition capacity is almost bottomless So far, the Russian military can still use the method of fire cover to attack the Ukrainian troops' positions 80% of the casualties are caused by ground fire This statement may have changed now Because Russia is using air-to-ground missiles to strengthen its artillery advantage Ukraine is also the largest land to expand reconnaissance and unmanned aircraft on the battlefield No matter how much these variables affect the battlefield the basic means of strike are still mainly large guns What is surprising is this small matter of providing 155-millimeter shells to Ukraine looks like it is not as important as long-range system weapons and anti-aircraft missiles But it is one of the important factors that restricts the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine It even involves all the ammunition production capabilities of the United States Massive ammunition consumption needs to rely on the production capacity of wartime military industry and the supply chain of raw materials If we turn our attention to the production of missiles in military factories we will find that Russian military factories are operating 24 hours a day And the low-tech military products are not affected by international sanctions Russia can produce 3 to 5 million shells per year In addition Russia can buy more missiles from North Korea Of course we cannot rule out that the CCP is another important source of arms The CCP's arsenal has recently switched from 152 mm to 155 mm This means it has a large amount of 152 mm ammunition This is a large amount of ammunition that can be provided to Russia In comparison the United States and Europe have thousands of missiles per day The total production of missiles per year is less than 1 million It shows that with the current production level the United States and Europe cannot guarantee the sufficient supply of nuclear missiles on the ground in Ukraine This is not only a problem of military industry's long working hours but also a problem of missile production infrastructure and the supply chain of raw materials The conventional 155 mm missiles are mainly composed of three parts i.e. metal shell, explosive and propulsion This may be the easiest component to make In recent years the United States has been promoting the production of more missiles In 2023 a 2.17 billion U.S. dollar order order to increase the production of of the Benchmark London and Wilkes-Barre factories They predict that by 2025 the production of 155 mm missiles will be significantly increased The first-choice missile is a three-burner also known as TNT TNT is more stable than ordinary missiles It can melt and be used to fill the shells The problem is although it is more stable it still has the risk of explosion and death More importantly, TNT is toxic The U.S. Army began to look for safer products to replace TNT Since 2010 the U.S. Army and BAE Systems have been cooperating to develop a new type of explosive used in missiles In 2013 the U.S. Army issued a 7.8 billion U.S. dollar order to produce a missile called the IMX-101 After deciding to convert the missile to IMX-101 the U.S. and Europe have almost closed all TNT factories Today, only Poland produces TNT The annual production is about 10,000 tons and can produce 100,000 rounds of 155mm missiles In other words, if the U.S. and the West can't raise the production of IMX-101 in time Poland's TNT can produce 1,000,000 rounds and Russia's annual production is 5,000,000 rounds In fact, the production of IMX-101 has not progressed The production is not enough to replace TNT and the cost is 28% higher than that of TNT Fort Ston needs to modernize and upgrade to meet the demand of the U.S. military BAE Systems decided to upgrade Fidelia's Redfood missile plant In early 2015 the budget was 2.45 billion U.S. dollars Now the plan is not only beyond the budget but also 10 years later than the original plan The U.S. military is relying on the old plant and other raw materials to maintain the current production Some of the raw materials come from India and China Among the three elements of missile production TNT and IMX-101 are the main constraints At present, Poland's plant can only produce 100,000 TNT bombs which is not enough In the future, the earliest time or in 2025 may be the beginning of this spring After the military aid provided by the U.S. people still see the performance of the Ukrainian army on the battlefield It has always been a little dull In the meantime waiting for the new missile In the meantime Ukraine cannot expect that the short-term problem of ground missile will be solved in a short time It may not be optimistic for the U.S. and Europe to fully fulfill their promises Regarding the part of the missile Ukraine needs to rely on its own wartime economy and defense industry to make up for or turn the battlefield At present Ukraine is mobilizing its forces to produce various kinds of reconnaissance, attack and bombing UAVs Looking at the current battlefield Ukraine's ability to attack UAVs cannot replace ground missiles However, Ukraine's attack on UAVs is developing very fast and has already obtained a significant battlefield effect People keep hearing UAVs have successfully destroyed tanks, infantry tanks, anti-aircraft guns, self-propelled guns, fuel tanks, and even Russian military installations The first person to describe the advantages of attacking UAVs is easy to operate, agile, high success rate, low cost, and easy to mass-produce Once Ukraine's mass production of UAVs reaches 1 million units its functions and scale will be able to replace ground missiles and turn Ukraine's passive situation At that time, Ukraine's superiority in ground missiles may disappear