羅家聰博士直播：突發！重大歷史時刻 中共開啟無錨印鈔 會帶來什麼後果？人民幣兌美金跌破7.3新低 #信燕訪談 #羅家聰 #無錨印鈔 #人民幣 #經濟 20240703

Hello everyone, welcome to the Live Broadcast of The Believer, I'm Lily Zhang Shun-yan. Today's guest is Dr. Lau Ka-chung, an economist from Hong Kong. Hello, Dr. Lau. Hello. On July 1st, the Central Bank of China suddenly announced that it will start international lending operations. The international supply chain immediately fell. The analysis indicates that China will officially start unscrupulous印鈔 from July 1st. So what is this unscrupulous印鈔? What effect will it bring? Let's welcome Dr. Lau. I understand that the so-called there is or there is not, in fact, after the倒台 in July 1st, there is not much. That is, most countries or places will not have a so-called currency back-up to print money. Hong Kong has it, but it's not enough. In Hong Kong, there is one US dollar to print 7.8 Hong Kong dollars. But there are very few countries or places that do this. That is, 71 years ago, the United States or other countries would print US dollars based on how much gold they had. Now, in the past few decades, there are not many countries that do not do this. So most countries do not have such a so-called back-up. If it is a big country, there is no need for a so-called back-up. It is based on the state of the economy, such as economic transactions and inflation. In theory, the growth rate of the currency should correspond to the sum of the amount and the speed of the price. This is the back-up principle of the quantity equation. If the growth rate of M and the amount of P and Y are combined, it is okay. There is also a term called GDP targeting. So for a long time, the growth rate of M and Y will correspond to the growth rate of GDP. If you can correspond, it's okay. If you can't correspond, it's too fast. This is usually how big countries deal with it. Small countries will look at how much foreign exchange they have. But in China, such relatively large systems are not very practical. Usually the small ones will do this. The big ones will look at how fast the economic growth rate is. It's hard to say it's outrageous for the time being. But I think it's very strange. What is the purpose of the CCP's conspiracy to copy? I didn't say how many countries have a so-called foundation. According to what I said just now, as long as the growth rate of the currency corresponds to the overall economy, that is, M and Y GDP, including the amount and price, M and Y GDP is the actual GDP multiplied by the GDP average number, that is, the price. The amount and price of the two growth rates correspond to the amount of the currency, which is actually okay. If you say that on this basis, it is not because of the GDP growth rate, but because it is too fast. For example, now your GDP, it is said to be more than 50%. Of course it is. In fact, it may be false. Then there may be another 1% inflation, or between 1 to 0. If you add up the M and Y GDP, it's about 5-6%. In theory, your M2 growth rate should be about the same speed. If your M2 growth rate is faster than this speed, either the currency flow rate will increase, but what you see now is not. The currency flow rate is the currency on the market. The exchange rate is the exchange rate on the market. In fact, we generally do not have a statistics for the VE currency flow rate. But it is estimated that it will not be faster or slower. In fact, if your Taiwan demand is poor, it should be poor. So if the current 0.2 GDP is between 5 and 6, according to the official figures. But in fact, the M2 has already reached the double-digit growth rate. In fact, every year, the currency growth rate doubles the GDP, which is the actual economic demand. Unless you print out half of the money, you give it to the outside world. It's the same as the US dollar. If the US dollar prints out money faster than the economy, unless you print out the US dollar, you give it to the outside world. If not, maybe you have a financial market, and you suck up the money. Or you use the financial market or the outside world, the two markets, the two roads, to suck up the money, that is, you cut off the part of the currency growth. Otherwise, the rest will become inflation. But it depends on the current state, the debt is exploding. When the debt is exploding, the rich can pay off the debt immediately, instead of immediately creating a state of inflation loss. So usually, if you see a big country, the first thing that happens is that the debt is going to be paid off. It prints out the money quickly. Printing out the money does not immediately create inflation. It immediately has the effect of inflation. But it may take a while before the so-called high inflation occurs. It's not quite there yet. Like you said, the so-called super inflation, that is, when the Kuomintang closed down, it was around the 1940s. But before the 1940s, it experienced a period of time when the economy was very bad, and the funds were all over the place. It also had a debt crisis at that time, and it was printing money. In the 1930s, it was printing money. But by the end of the 1930s, it was still in a state of inflation. The inflation was very low. It's the same as it is now. Until the financial and monetary records couldn't keep up, it kept going crazy. The super inflation was around the 1940s, almost after the end of World War II. The worst time was around 1948-1949. So if you go to that point, it's not that fast. It usually takes a while. It's the same as it is now. Secondly, you can see how big the debt crisis is. After the debt was filled, it was still doing this crazy thing. We also have to look at whether it's easy to keep the funds. If you can't keep the money, it's not that easy to keep the funds. First of all, it's not that easy to have an emergency depreciation. If you print money and the money depreciates, the first thing you'll see is that the exchange rate plummets. But if you can't keep the money, it's hard for the exchange rate to plummet. Even if it plummets, it doesn't matter. You can't keep the money. It doesn't matter how much it plummets. Secondly, if you can't keep the money, the exchange rate plummets, and the price goes up. As you said, you have to take a lot of money to buy a lot of things. But this hasn't happened yet. When it hasn't happened yet, it can go from not happening to happening very quickly. But at the moment, there is no mechanism for it to form. At least people suddenly have to lose faith in that thing. Yes, it's very dangerous. Can you give us some examples? Can you give us some examples of how to print money? As I said earlier, basically all the currencies are gone now. There is no currency that really has a fundamental mechanism behind it. Although it is said that there is no currency, there are not many countries that have gone crazy to increase the speed of the currency. Usually, the problem is structural. The whole country may have a long-term income. This is a normal income. As long as there is trade, there is export. Also, there is a financial loss. The government's financial balance is not balanced. Even if the private sector can't balance the balance, there is a long-term loss. At the beginning, there may be a debt. The debt will be delayed. When the debt reaches a certain level, there will be no debt. At that time, people will start to pay interest. There may not be a problem but when people realize the problem, they will start to depreciate. Now, in this era, most of the cases are still limited to relatively new markets. It may not be small. For example, Argentina is a big country but it has experienced similar financial crises at least three times. In addition, there are some countries in South America and Africa that have experienced similar financial crises. But when it comes to big countries, there have been cases in the past but it was a long time ago. For example, in the 1920s and 1920s was a long time ago. it was a long time ago. If you look at big countries, most of them are in debt crisis. Debt crisis may not turn into an inflationary loss. The risk of inflation may be greater than inflation. Debt crisis is really scary. How do people deal with it? The way to deal with it is not to hold the money. If you print money the first thing you see is that the money will depreciate. Japan is the same. They print money randomly. It is obvious that the money depreciates. Usually, people will hold another currency. Otherwise, they will hold real money. Because now you print money without a basis. It is not only in Japan or other countries. It is happening all over the world. It depends on who is faster and who is slower. It is not so common in relatively rich countries. Because everyone prints money very fast. One is fast, the other is not so fast. If you are not so fast, it is a relative increase. For example, the US dollar is also increasing. The US dollar is also relatively strong. But everyone prints money very fast. In the end, people will buy other things to compensate for the loss. In the past, the way to deal with it is not to hold the currency and calculate the price. Because the currency depreciates. If you hold the currency and use the currency unit to calculate the price, you will lose all the time. As long as you don't use the currency unit to calculate the price, you will be fine. In the past, there was not so much money and funds. If you can say that, you can buy everything. Now you can't buy everything. Many people have a lot of money. You can't buy everything. You don't want to buy so many things. You may want to save more. You need to find a place to save money so that you can avoid the effect of printing money. It's not that easy. Everyone prints money. At most, the US can print money and use it all over the world. Other countries print money and use it all over the world. It doesn't look crazy. You can put the money in a safe place. In this era, you have to invest. You need to save money. There are not many options. Perhaps you still need the currency unit. Then, it is possible that you can buy several things with a US dollar. Then, the problem will be solved. If you can't solve the problem, buy something with a US dollar. The situation is the same as the money in the mainland that can't get out, it's stuck in the people's currency price, so it's better to buy some people's currency, there's some returns that don't lose so fast, it feels better. Talking about the people's currency, the US dollar exchange rate has fallen by 7.3, it's a 7-month decline. It's not the people's currency, it's the US dollar. The US dollar has risen by 7.3. Ok, so it's a 7-month decline, what do you think? I don't have any special opinion, because 7.3-7.5, I remember last year or two years ago, it was around this level. If you look at the window, it's not too bad, it's been declining for two years. It was 6-month before, now it's 7-month, but it's slow. It's not just the people's currency, if you look at the past few years, Japan, South Korea, many Asian currencies have fallen. It's not that much, so it's hard to say. In the past, it was around 8. You have to talk about the exchange rate, of course, it's a decline. But in fact, if you move for a whole year, within a few percent, I don't think it's a problem. There are a lot of big currencies that go up and down for a year, 10, 8, it's not a big deal. In India, for example, 7, 8, it's a big deal. 7.3, 1 out of 10 is 0.73. It's not something to worry about. You have to look at the reason behind the exchange rate. The reason is that if it's a trade war, it's a way to lower the output. It may also be a way to lower the output. I don't think it's a bad policy. But the latest official data shows that in April, HK$1.09 trillion in RMB deposits. HK$1.09 trillion is a big number. The increase in Hong Kong's RMB deposits is believed to be a pressure to increase the RMB. You don't have to go too far to explain this. Because a lot of times, Hong Kong's so-called offshore RMB level, how much money does it put down? If it doesn't put it down, there won't be so much RMB in Hong Kong. It deliberately puts RMB down. For example, to create a mainland financial market in Hong Kong. There are a lot of mainland stocks to be listed. First, it has to put the money down for you to buy. Otherwise, there's no money to be a financial center. Can't get on the A-shares, can't issue national debt, can't issue corporate debt. It has to do this first, first put the money down. I think it deliberately put the money down. It's a bit of a scam. In the past, QBIT and now the ToMatone, it's a kind of scam. This is a private sector. There are some swaps in the official level. In fact, it deliberately creates some so-called funds. And then in Hong Kong, I'm thinking of doing some more RMB products. Actually, it's nothing special. This is not caused by your funds flowing away. I don't believe that the funds will flow away. If it flows out, it will be put in Hong Kong. That is, if you really want to leave, the first thing to do is not to send people, but to send US dollars. US dollars will come out and go very far. The closest is Singapore, even further. Will stay in Hong Kong. So I don't think the funds will flow away. OK, let's see if there is any supplement. No. OK, thank you, Dr. Casey. See you next time. OK. Bye-bye.