中國養老金系統將崩盤危及數億人 絕望的年輕人真要做最後一代？不生娃 不结婚 不买房 現在連後路都斷了｜百聞縱橫｜要聞透視｜史海秘辛｜探古析今｜希望視界

Nowadays, young people are becoming less and less interested in social security. In the past, we all fought for social security, but now a lot of people have given up on it. In the past five years, we have over 40 million people who have given up on social security. The flexible employment gap in my country has reached 200 million, but only 50 million people participate in social security. That means that 1.5 billion people don't pay social security. Do you think they don't want to pay social security? In fact, most of us know that social security is quite useful, and we all know that it is necessary to pay social security. But most of us don't say we don't want to pay social security, because many of us work flexibly. If we have a job today, we don't have a job tomorrow. If we don't have a stable job, for example, a delivery man, a driver, or a courier, the cost of paying this flexible employment is actually quite high. If you don't have a high income, or if your family's financial conditions are not good, you can't afford it, so you have no choice but to give up. Hello everyone, I am Xiaoran. China's 200 million flexible employment groups, but only 50 million people are paying social security. This number is a big hit. Experts and pinks who praise China's economy every day. Pension is a payment system. That is, young people pay social security, but old people pay pension. 1.5 billion people give up social security, which means that the gap between pension and social security is getting bigger and bigger. Do you know why the CCP encourages more children to relax all restrictions? Because the leeks are not enough. The pressure of the gap between pension and social security has been passed down from generation to generation. Young people don't want to pay social security, which is already a semi-public secret. No matter how hard it is to work, it is difficult to buy a house, get married and have children. So just choose to lie flat. This is the opinion of Zhou Xiaochuan, the former president of the People's Bank of China, on the first China Retirement Forum. As for why young people don't want to pay social security, it seems that as long as they don't discuss it, it doesn't exist. Zhou Xiaochuan made it very clear. Young people don't want to pay social security is not a problem for young people, but a problem with the system design. When the social security system did not appear, the retired elderly did not pay social security. This means that the account of China's social security will always lack a sum of money, or there is a deficit. It can only be solved by the transfer of loans from generation to generation. The issue of pension is no longer a distant topic for 70s and 80s like us. As the number of old people's furniture and young people's social security fees decrease, we are forced to face an unprecedented pension crisis. On the Chinese social platform, a blogger complained that there are really many young people in Wuhan who do not pay social security. Today, a boy in his early 20s came to the interview and asked how much money he could make without social security. Nowadays, young people do not have children, do not get married, do not buy a house, and now there are more people who do not pay social security. This is to cut off one's own back road cleanly. You ask him why, he still has words. You can afford a small disease, but you don't have to look at a big disease. Medical insurance is available. Children and grandchildren have their own blessings. Without children and grandchildren, I want to be blessed. As for the pension, such a distant thing, let's talk about it when we live to that day. To say that the social security rate is declining now, in addition to the change in the mentality of young people, it also has a lot to do with the employment market. After the mask was opened, the employment environment was unstable. Especially those small business owners, individual business owners, and those young entrepreneurs who deliver takeout and open stalls, their daily income cannot support their daily expenses. How much money do you have to buy social security? This young man shared his experience of cutting off social security in front of the camera. It sounds quite reasonable. Many people cut off social security like me. When I decided to quit my job, my family told me with bitter words that social security must not be cut off. If it doesn't work, we can continue to pay for it for you. I majored in engineering, and I like to observe data to make decisions. First of all, the probability of living past the age of 70 is 44%. That is to say, I probably won't live to that age. I may not have the fate to enjoy this pension. And now the retirement age is constantly delayed. I can't even think if I had to be 70 years old to retire at that time. Besides, small diseases can be cured by themselves. Big diseases have serious disease risks. This kind of medical treatment is useless to me. The mechanism of social security is to use the labor force of young people to support the elderly. Let's look at the birth rate of the population now. I don't know if our next generation can support us. Now I have more than 1,000 yuan a month. I can take my family out to have fun. I can travel more than 10,000 yuan a year. Since I'm not sure if I can enjoy social security, I might as well enjoy it with my wife and children. Forget it. My personal opinion is that it's impossible. Recently, the topic of 3% increase in China's pension has been posted on Weibo. That is to say, the retirement age of the elderly is going to rise again. As we all know, China's pension gap has now expanded to 1 trillion yuan. According to official data, in 2021, the national pension insurance revenue gap is close to 7 trillion yuan. There are 300 million people in the country who receive pension. In the next 5 to 10 years, China's pension gap will expand to 8 to 10 trillion yuan. Such a big deficit, the pension is still rising. It means that young people need to pay more social security to fill the gap. Of course, young people don't do it. In the Weibo comment section, there are many comments saying that the pension is rising again. The streets are full of angry old people and young people who can't live on. What kind of logic is this? On the one hand, the pension gap is huge. On the other hand, the pension is increasing every year. On the one hand, young people are unemployed. On the other hand, the elderly's income is rising. Can you give young people a way to live? Can you give farmers a raise? Can you stipulate that wages must rise every year? People who raise pensions with wages are higher than my salary. It is impossible to reform the system. No one can save themselves. According to the Wall Street Journal, China's pension system used to be a strong pure government project. But under the pressure of economic decline, it has become broken. China is exploring solutions, including extending the retirement age. But delaying retirement has made very serious employment problems worse. Therefore, it has been strongly opposed by the people. Zhou Xiaochuan, the former president of the CPC Central Bank, also believes that the extension of the retirement age involves the production of average health standards and the productivity of the elderly. Even if the policy of extending the retirement age is implemented, it will take more than 10 years to see results. At the same time, China's aging and aging-related acceleration, especially the decrease in the labor market population, the introduction of social security and other factors for young people, also indicates that the time of pension expenditure will arrive in advance. According to the data released by the CPC Bureau of Statistics in April, by the end of 2023, China's 60-year-old and above population will exceed 2.96 billion. The aging population is large, and the aging rate is fast. In the next 10 years, it is expected that 300 million people will retire, which will bring enormous pressure to the working class. China's pension system is made up of three parts. The first pillar is basic pension insurance, led by the government. The second pillar includes corporate pension and vocational pension. The third pillar is the personal pension plan. The Chinese pension system used to be a double-track system. Civil servants did not need to pay pensions in the early years, but the pension received after retirement was much higher than that of ordinary people. Later, although the system went down the drain, the pension system has been crumbling. According to the China Pension Development Report published by the Economic Management Publishing House, by the end of 2013, China's personal pension accounts had soared to 30,955 billion yuan, which exceeded the accumulated savings of the Childhood Urban Worker's Pension Fund. Among them, the pension insurance of Heilongjiang has exhausted its accumulated savings in 2016, and it is difficult to maintain. The American economist Chen Xiaonong believes that the CCP is well aware of the consequences of the pension crisis, but it can do nothing about it. In fact, China's pension has basically been a surplus in recent years. In 2015, it lost 17.31 billion yuan, and in 2018, it lost 45.04 billion yuan. In the past, the local government did not lack money. In the era when real estate prices were soaring, they could fill the pension gap with local finance. But now the local government has no money, and even if there is money to subsidize, according to the CCP's official forecast, as the retirement population increases rapidly, the income growth of the pension insurance fund will not be able to keep up with the increase in expenditure. Accumulated savings will also gradually decline. By 2035, pension will no longer be able to be distributed as before. It must be emphasized that the forecast for the pension crisis in 2035 is that five years ago, China's real estate bubble would not collapse, and the economy would not decline. Now that China's economy has plummeted, and local finance is shrinking, the moment of the pension crisis is no longer in 2035, but may be a few years in advance. For example, it may be a few years before 2028, a few years from today. Ten years ago, every pensioner in China had 10 laborers to pay pension insurance. Now, every pensioner has 5 laborers to pay pension insurance. This ratio will decline further. Chen Xiaonong's article says that once the pension crisis breaks out, it will first show a payment delay, instead of immediately terminating all pension payments. Then, the number of payments will gradually shrink, from west to east, and spread in all cities. Next, we can only count on the central government to issue a large amount of long-term national debt and let the bank acquire it, thereby indirectly turning the people's savings into the source of pension. This action has already started this year, and the final result is that the central government's large amount of national debt will trigger a financial crisis when the bank's funds are drawn out. At that time, not only will it be very difficult to pay pension, but the people's bank deposits will also be difficult to withdraw, because the people's savings have long been used by the central government to issue pension payments for the previous several years. What kind of social consequences will the outbreak of the Chinese pension crisis lead to? This is related to the future of almost every family in China. Once this situation occurs, the elderly will be afraid of having nothing to eat, and the young will be afraid that they will have to pay the pension, but will not get a penny after retirement. When the Chinese government implemented the single-child policy, it promised the Chinese people that if the policy is good, the government will help the elderly. But more than 30 years later, the CCP found that the single-child policy had damaged the pension system, and changed its mind to say that the elderly cannot rely on the government. China is now forced into a deeply aging society. If the pension is dry, almost every family will be in a financial crisis, because China's retired elderly have a heavy family burden. Many elderly people not only have to take care of their own survival, but also have to raise their children. This is related to the social perception that the government is concealing the pension crisis and creating a slow increase in the annual pension payment. Many Chinese elderly people don't know that their good days may be coming to an end. Among the Chinese social groups, the people who have had the most comfortable life except for a few rich people and officials are those who have received a lot of pension, those urban retired elderly, especially retired civil servants. The next generation of retired elderly are mostly single-children. After marriage, single-children may not be able to afford to buy a house, so many retired elderly help their children pay the house loan. Some single-children feel that their parents' pension is not enough for their middle-aged parents, so they go to work and earn little. It is better to rely on their parents' pension. Therefore, once the pension crisis occurs, not only will the elderly have a hard time living, but also their children will immediately feel financial pressure. It seems that the pension crisis is not only a nightmare for the elderly, but also a national social crisis. This is Hope World. If you like our program, please like, subscribe, forward and turn on the little bell. See you next time.