【精彩】羅家聰合集：2024年鳴警！ 3金融金絲雀幾時爆 差！減息？經濟弱大風浪？恐慌拋售潮？未衰退財赤千億開支萬億 衰退殺埋點算？結構性問題 唔賣地政府靠咩收入 港股跌救市難 #Lucy連線

At the same time, is it a crazy loan or a very high public investment that has been done very well? It doesn't seem to be. So now your stock market suddenly went down 4-5%, it seems that the economy has not yet had any major problems. But if it goes down, of course it will. So I think the stock market or other stock prices will be a little more cautious this year. But the whole trend is a big up and down. It's not like it's really down to 0.8, 0.2, it's not like that. But of course, sometimes there are days when it's a little more panic. Sometimes some bad things come out. Then there is a wave of panic, a boom. Occasionally it will happen, but it may be relatively short-term. It may soon go up again. That is, I guess the price is like this. So the whole year, things are up and down. It may be a little weaker at the end of the year than now. But it's not that bad. Did you say that the economy belongs to, just now the economist said that the economy belongs to the black swan, everyone is worried about its future. The question of the future is that the Fed may choose now. Are there any other economic factors in 2024? Is it the gold lion or the black swan? Are there other factors that everyone is more worried about? No, black swan, I answered you. You can see if there will be some problems with the gold lion. Generally, if the market is not good, for example, look at the Japanese dollar or some new currency. Is there any sudden surge in the Japanese dollar? This is usually the prelude to the crash. If the debt starts to have problems, you can see if there are any places or some banks. Will the CDS be picked up? You can see if there are any problems with the bank account. But these should be clear. Because since the U.S. broke out in March, after two or three banks went bankrupt, the Fed has been tight-lipped. If there is something wrong with a bank, it has already monitored it, and even some things are being done. So there may be a place in the mainland, because these things are not transparent in the mainland. You don't know if it's broken. Of course, you can look at the news, some banks will say they can't get the money, and they will be afraid of these things. For the time being, there is no such thing. I think in one or two months, the situation may not have changed much. But for example, if the market suddenly comes down, in fact, if the U.S. dollar rises in the New Year, the market seems to want to recover a little. Then you have to watch out. When there is a adjustment, in fact, it is uncertain that some companies or even some economies can't stand it, that is, something will happen. Preparation, this year's land sales is 8.5 billion yuan. Now I just bought three shares, and one more is to give up the whole festival. Now there is only 7.3 billion yuan in land sales, plus the land, 5.3 billion yuan, 1.23 billion yuan, almost a dozen, a little more than a dozen. In fact, now it will be like this. Mr. Bolsonaro also talked about the government's tax, and the tax is more than 1,000 billion. Now there is no water, and there is a tax. Is the government expecting this year, or is there really no way to increase taxes? In fact, you said before. In fact, it is very troublesome, because you just said, you also said that the tax is more than 1,000 billion. The tax is more than 1,000 billion. If you count the years, in fact, the expenses are in the order of magnitude of 1 trillion. If you count the expenses in the order of 1 trillion, in fact, you sell the land, there are only 300 million. In fact, this is not a good deal. That is to say, this income is very problematic. If you say tax increase, it is not that you can increase it. It is easy for you to increase the tax rate, but if the economy is not good, for example, now the company's closing situation is so severe, it is actually difficult. Because the main income sources of the government, one is to sell land, or land-related, such as rainwater printing, those DSDs, etc. That kind of chili tax, those are actually a lot less, because the tax is low. But at the same time, corporate taxes are not too easy to collect. You have a lot of companies that have been closed, or a lot of companies have some tax arrangements, analysis projects, etc. In fact, it may not actually pay a lot of taxes, even if it actually takes your income as an important proportion. So if you are very loyal to companies, especially companies, a lot of small and medium-sized enterprises, or individual households, in fact, they really don't pay a lot of taxes. The original amount they came back may not be very large. You have to rely on big companies. But big companies are actually not very safe, to be honest. If foreign investors have the opportunity to leave, those in mainland China actually have a chance to explode. If you rely too much on corporate taxes, it's actually a bit of a nuisance. Another big area is the new tax. There is no problem with the new tax for the time being, because the unemployment rate is still low. But when you have a problem, there may be unemployment. In fact, there will also be a downturn. And the problem with the new tax is that although it is relatively stable, the tax rate is not so low, because the corporate tax rate is about half of the new tax rate. But you say, if you really want to be taxed, you have to pay the standard tax rate. In fact, the ratio is quite small. If you want to be taxed, in fact, there are very few people. Now the working population is about one in every three. That is, more than 7 million people have about 2 million jobs. But it is a very low ratio to pay taxes. If you do it, the standard tax rate will be even lower. So in fact, you are actually receiving very few people's taxes. It's just a few hundred thousand. When you have hundreds of thousands of people receiving taxes, how do you cover such a large number? I think this is not the first time to sell land. In the past, for a long time, at least five or seven times, I have heard of it. Well, even if there is no land price, I don't want to make up for it. I think the developers have a very light view of the market. That is, they don't want to buy, and they don't want to make up for it. Of course, now the feeling is that the government is playing tricks to get rid of it. But in fact, if you push hard, it will be cheaper and cheaper. I have tried to sell it before. If you sell it, if you do this for a long time, people will feel very bad. So I think it is unlikely to sell. Let's forget it. Another idea may be to take this opportunity to reduce supply. In fact, you can count how much supply there has been in the past two years. If the supply of land is increasing, you are still in a situation where you have to sell the land. So there is a gamble in the middle. Is the government losing money or is the real estate company losing money? The real estate company is now going to the US. During the period of going to the US, they won't have much reason to get a lot of land. In addition, if you don't sell the land in the US, it will be difficult to see the supply of land. The two sides originally wanted to get a balance. The real estate side lost a little. The government side lost a little. But in fact, the market is quite weak. So the government has no choice. It is difficult to see the supply. This is the only result. But if you don't sell the land for a period of time, does it mean that the price will go up? I don't dare to say. Because from selling the land to having the land to be balanced, even to build a house, it will take several years. Now, the supply has stopped. In fact, the effect may not be seen until a few years later. In the past period, the supply was relatively small, one or two years. If the land supply is small, the effect may not be seen until a few years later. In fact, it is not very helpful to reduce the supply and raise the price. And now the government has no motivation to raise the price. Its signal or position is not very clear. So in fact, the government is in a passive state. Because the developers don't sell the land, don't vote, and even don't want to raise the price. As a result, there is no demand outside. That's why the supply has stopped. The whole ratio is like this. Also, this time, the problem is in the north. In the north, it was originally the main concept of the so-called Hong Kong. But after everyone thought it through, first, you can see that the economy is not good. The price of housing in Shenzhen has fallen a lot. In fact, Shenzhen was originally a technology city. If the price of housing there is so high, you can clearly see that if you continue to do it, the effect may not be good. No matter how cheap the flour price is, the bread price can't be so expensive. Secondly, the biggest problem in Hong Kong is business. There is little foreign investment or local investment. In the past, it was only in the north, but now it is not very popular. Not so many people have so much money to invest. If you do these things on a large scale, to be honest, if you call the slogan to create a whole technology city, it is easy to say. In fact, few people do technology in Hong Kong. If there are very few people doing it, you draw such a large area to go to the technology center, there are more or less problems. First of all, you don't know who will do it with you. Unless all the mainlanders come to do it. You can see a lot of mainland technology companies are now talking about platform-based economy. They are holding the cost very tight. The price of land in Hong Kong is so expensive, I can't see any motivation to do it. In fact, the only function of Hong Kong if you do technology, is to sell things. But selling things won't go to the north. Selling things must go back to the center. If you put it in the middle, it will be more similar. If you put it in Shangshui or Luohu, it won't be too similar to a center for selling things. So if you are in that area, if you say to do it on a large scale, to do business, I have a feeling that there are some two or three lines of business in some areas, such as Kowloon East and Guangzhou East. In fact, not everyone can do it. And those who can do it have been doing it for a long time. Now you suddenly put a large piece in the north of the new world to do business. In fact, I think a lot of people don't like it. And the wall is too big. Is there a need for such a large wall to engage in business activities? Is there a need for such a large wall to engage in science and technology? As I said, there are not too many people in science and technology. So if the whole positioning and approach is so different from the current market view, I don't believe the market is thinking about such a large commercial area. In fact, it is very difficult to do. And now you can see that the price of housing is still a little better. It's not as fast as before. But when you go to the office, to the shop, the vacancy rate is actually much higher. And the price is much lower. Because if you don't have the funds or the investors are not there, it's really less. So if your positioning is not based on housing, but mainly on business, in fact, the attractiveness is even lower. In this case, if you say you have to sell the land, I think the government can not sell it for a long time. How long can Lin Heng-ho persist without selling the land? He is now actually a little bit of a transaction component, that is, the same taste as the market chain. But when it comes to that position, it's the same sentence. How long can you endure the red system of the government? If you continue to be like this, of course, no one can control you except the Communist Party. If they don't control you, you can continue to be like this. But you will cause a lot of problems. For example, the year-on-year deficit. Now you haven't gone down, but it's still like this. If you really go down, your deficit will definitely be even worse. This is the first point. The second point is that you will cause a decline in the evaluation institutions, or even a decline in the price. There are a lot of these possibilities. If you sell the land, the government's revenue will be completely lost. There are a lot of such statements. And the income from selling the land has never been stable. So it's so hard to guess about the deficit. But the income from selling the land or the income from property-related values accounts for about one-third of the entire government. If this one-third, to be honest, it's a lot less than the income from printing and printing. You can't cover the income from regular real estate. You can't cover the income from selling the land. If you really go down, how can you catch up with the shortfall? Because the shortfall is not short. The government has already lost a lot of money. So I think the government is in a hurry. It's just that the government is not in a hurry to sell the land. If the price of the land is very low, the government can't cover the shortfall. If you look at the land, most of the time, there are only one or two interesting properties. Sometimes there are none. If you sell the land like this, it will become a buy-side market. The real estate developers will be in trouble. The government will be in a very passive position. The government has always had this problem with the structure of the revenue. The income is too dependent on a certain small area. And the volatility is very high. If you sell the land, it's a big piece. If you don't sell it, it's gone. Now it's really time to take action. But you know that stocks are not allowed to be listed. Some netizens say that the stock market in Hong Kong is so strong Hello, Dr. Chan Some people say that it's been 25 years, and now it's back to 97. Now the stock market in Hong Kong has broken through the 97 level to more than 15,000. Last year, it fell to more than 14,000 in December. What do you think of the stock market now? Why did it fall so badly? It didn't fall all at once. The decline has been going on for several years. Of course, it's obvious in the past year or two. But it's also obvious that it's very progressive. You can see that the decline is very stable. Such a stable decline I have always said that it was done by the fund investors. Because if a general shareholder is afraid to come up and sell, it won't fall so much. Now you see it fall maybe 2,300, 2,300, sometimes more than 5,600. If a shareholder is afraid to come up and sell, it will fall by 1,000 points. It's not like that now. It's a decline. It's slowly falling in the decline. This should be the case of fund investors. You can see some data. As the news said, there are more fund investors in December. I think there are really more fund investors falling and falling away. I guess the story may be a year or two ago. The Hong Kong stock market was still around 20,000. It started now. In fact, I don't know how much the fund investors own. I guess at the peak, there should be half or more than half. However, the Hong Kong stock market fell by more than half from 30,000 to now. In fact, a good proportion should be taken away. So, from a purely speculative point of view, for example, at the peak of the stock market, there should be half or more than half. It's about 7, 8, 8, 8, 9. So, if you ask about the future, the stock market will follow the foreign exchange. If the foreign exchange is falling, Hong Kong will follow. But if the foreign exchange is rising, and the Hong Kong stock market is falling, it's obvious that the fund will leave. It should be close. Some observers have seen that the Hong Kong stock market is falling while the Japanese stock market is rising. There may be some funds whose theme is Asia. They may not want to leave Asia or the stock market. But at the same time, they may go back to the Japanese stock market or India. I don't know. There should be more Japanese stocks. But the Japanese stock market has fallen a little. I won't say it's a big fall, but at least there is a gap. So, after a while, Hong Kong will not fall. At least not yet. The economy is doing well in the past two years. If the money is still falling, it's just moving from Hong Kong to another place. This has nothing to do with the cycle. If the foreign exchange is a little solid because of the cycle, Hong Kong stock market will move to another place. The foreign exchange may go back. If the foreign exchange moves to another place, it may slow down. If you take a scale and calculate, it will be 13,000, 12,000, 11,000, 9,000 soon. But in fact, the stock market should not move like this. What do you think will happen if the stock market does not move like this? Will there be a stock shortage? There will not be a stock shortage. Because the stock market is too hot. The stock price is too high. For example, when the stock price was 32,000, it was 33,000. The stock price went up. But now the stock price is not going up. And when the stock price went down, there was no panic. If you look at the chart, the stock price went down in a straight line. This is the result of the fund. The stock price did not go down. The stock price went down slowly. So the stock price went down in a big way. The stock price went down by more than half when the stock price went down by 13,000. But the stock price did not go down in a hurry. It did not go down in a short period of time. It did not go down in a long period of time. It did not go down in a short period of time. The key point is the relationship with the mainland. Of course, the Democratic Party may be more nervous. In China, there is a limit on the trade tax of Taiwan's products. You see, President Ma Ying-jeou also said that he believes in Xi Jinping. In fact, these remarks are good. In China, there is a limit on the trade products. In fact, this election has little impact on Taiwan's stock market. First of all, don't worry about President Ma Ying-jeou. He is not in charge now. As for the pressure on Taiwan's products, in fact, does Taiwan have to buy a lot of mainland products? To be honest, there are a lot of things that can be replaced in the mainland. It's not that you can't do it if you don't buy it. I really can't see a big impact. In fact, there has always been a trade relationship on both sides. The economic relationship has not been very smooth. It's always been a little wet. I think there are a lot of new actions. There are a lot of shops in Shenzhen. The Hong Kong dollar is one-to-one with the RMB. If I tell you the difference between 7.3 and 7.8, if I tell you the difference between 7.3 and 7.8, you may not think there is a big difference. You may think there is a big difference. There is no meaning. There is no difference. If you don't get a tax, you can't get tax. If you don't have a purchasing power, and the law is enforced, the purchasing power will be subject to the tax. This is talking about the future, not the present. the present is not affected. If you are not talking about this type, or if you are not talking about buying before the good rain, for example, the downpour in the last 10 years, or the stocks in the last 20 years. In fact, these 10-year-old properties or 20-year-old stocks have not risen much. So in fact, I don't think there will be a lot of taxes collected in this process. You don't need to buy flour, do you? I saw some comments saying that the market has shrunk. Is it a disaster in Hong Kong's stock market? What do you think? Don't use the word disaster. I don't think we need to go that far. In terms of development, there are a lot of farmland in the north of the New Territories. In fact, it was very cheap to buy at the time. Because the land has not yet changed its use. If you change the use, you have to pay the land price. I think they have a desire to change the use of housing. In fact, in this era, it looks like a residential building. Because a large number of mainlanders came over, opened the door and let them in. When you let them in, it's actually very smooth. They may be heading towards the north of the New Territories. It's more convenient to go back. So in fact, if you build a residential building on the main road, there is demand. Of course, the market is not very good now. The housing price is falling. But if you are talking about building a residential area, it seems to be more in the countryside. If you change the use, it's not residential. If you change it to an office building or a retail building, you have to think about it. If you want to do business in those places, if you can do it, you can do it. You can't do it for so many years. Now you suddenly say you want to do it, and you want to do technology. Everyone knows whether Hong Kong can do technology or not. Because it's all about a scientist, a digital Hong Kong. In fact, Hong Kong doesn't have much technology or science. You can't do these industries for so many years. You can't do it now. Then you circle a large area of land to do this. I believe many people don't think it's good. If you do business, you may not be able to do it. And in Shenzhen, even if you have technology, you can see it. First, there is a risk of being sanctioned. Second, there are a lot of housing prices in Shenzhen. If you are near Shenzhen, the pressure is really big. To be honest, if you are farther away, for example, walking to Hong Kong Island, compared to Shenzhen, you still have some distance. It may take an hour to get there by car. But if you say no, you are next to the river, or if you take the train station, the prices on both sides may not be very different. If the prices in Shenzhen are so bad, the prices in the north are not high. If the prices are not high, you can't calculate the price of flour. If the government forces you to get a good price, you may not be able to do it. Then you have to pay for it yourself. According to Reuters, Hong Kong banks will no longer give loans to high-debt developers. What do you think of this? Will it cause another crisis? This is very correct. Because the Monetary Authority issued a directive to make it clear what the quality of assets you are borrowing is. This is always there. If the bank is in trouble, it will be a big problem. Who will you borrow money from? You can't get it back. This is the so-called quality of assets. You have to keep an eye on this all the time. Especially now in mainland China, real estate is like this, including debt. If the economy has a chance to turn bad, and the quality of assets has a chance to fall, you have to reduce your share price. This is a reasonable way. So, from the perspective of protecting the bank, it's a win-win situation. From the perspective of protecting the company, it shouldn't be like this. You should borrow more. Like now in mainland China, you can borrow money from banks. The problem is, which side do you want to die when the economy turns bad? Do you want to die on the side of the company or on the side of the bank? It depends on how you weigh it. If you die on the side of the company, you die on one side. But if you die on the side of the bank, you die on one side. So, you can borrow a lot of money. Generally speaking, the stability of the bank is more important than a general company. For example, if you close one or two companies, you close that one, you close that one. But if you close a bank, you will have a lot of money to borrow. So, there is such a way. If the bank is in trouble, it can be said that it is a win-win situation. But in other words, if the bank's loan policy was restricted, not excessive, in fact, as long as it has such a point of reference or a new directive, the impact should not be very big. Generally speaking, those who work in banks in Hong Kong are relatively stable, I believe. They may not be able to borrow as much as they should. The interest rate will be very high. What is high interest rate? Of course, it is not clear yet. It depends. But you can arrange it yourself. Arrange the data. Those who really feel that there is a problem may call back. To be honest, if the interest rate is very high, and the bank is still borrowing, it may actually have some problems. If the interest rate is low, it is less likely to burden the entire banking system. In my opinion, from the perspective of supervision, from an overall perspective, there is no problem. There are few cases of bankruptcy in Hong Kong banks. Dr. Hsieh, you said before, if the loan is not looking good, the stock price will continue to fall, almost to the level of July 1997. Does this have any impact on the bank? It is also a risk of asset quality decline. As a result, the stock market will not directly affect the bank. Because the bank's own design is not for buying stocks. The bank can be used as a loan to borrow money from Taichung business. The bank itself is not using the money to buy stocks. It is done by the bank, not the bank. If you ask the bank if its customers have bought stocks, they dare not say. When the stock price falls, the situation of assets and liabilities may deteriorate. The stock is one of the assets. If the bank lends out debt, if there is a problem with the stock, the bank will be implicated. You can't say there is no relationship. There is a relationship. It's not that the bank has a problem because the stock market has fallen. It's just that the stock price has fallen and the economy is not doing well. The overall economic cycle is a problem. This is a big problem, not just a stock market problem. The CPI of the U.S. is fluctuating. The U.S. Federal Reserve said it would release an explanation. Do you think the explanation is too early? In fact, the Federal Reserve is bad. It said it was not clear. The previous dot plot was thrown out. It's not good at explaining. The market is thinking too much. If you reduce it by three times, you can see a double. In fact, it wants to reduce the temperature and reduce the day. If you can open three times, the Fed's view is to reduce by three times. I think it wants to reduce by six, nine, ten, two, three times a quarter. It's usually like this. But is it so ideal? Is it possible to reduce by a quarter? I doubt it. It wants to reduce by six, nine, ten, two, three times a quarter. So there is a big bank. It knows it wants to do this. So it has almost the same idea. But usually, the market will force it. When the market drops, it will be afraid. It will change. The Fed is talking too much. In fact, there is nothing to say and do. It changes all the time. The bond market tends to guess earlier. But is it as urgent as March? You have to see if there is anything in the next two months. Sometimes, you can't predict the bank crisis. Or you can't predict other crises. But if the market drops, there is a chance to predict it. These markets are often played by institutional investors. If it forms a consensus at a certain point, if the market wants to pick up the Fed to reduce, it does not rule out that in the next two months, there will be some rapid adjustments, even large-scale adjustments. When the Fed drops, the risk of reduction will rise. So there is a chance. I think the market will force it. But if you force it, it will not be easy. It may support twice. In fact, the time of reduction is possible in March, May, and June. Looking at the economic data now, it is not that difficult. There may be a chance to delay a little later. So now the market is almost the same. In March and May, I think it will be like this. Is it possible to add if the market chooses to delay? It is not possible, right? If you predict a reduction like this, it may be reduced by one or two percent. If you look further, it may be reduced by two or three percent. In fact, such a prediction is not a good phenomenon. Maybe the decline will really come out later. If you really want to add color, the decline will pass first. It won't be so fast. Thank you.