Arsenal Fans, It's TIME to Wake Up...

Welcome back to The Different Knock, let's talk January. January is the first month of the year in the Julian and Gregorian calendars. In Norm- Oh. Jorrell Hutto, Ivan Toney, Deuce and Vlahovic. January is here and rumours are swirling regarding Arsenal's potential incoming transfer business. But as the window creaks into life, Babs sharpens his thumbnail making skills and Fabrizio Romano develops a stress factor in his thumbs while his screen time goes to 19 hours a day, I have a bad feeling. And what I'm about to say does not benefit me, or you, or this YouTube channel's ad revenue, frankly. But I have to say what I really think. So here goes. I don't think we will be able to improve our squad to the level that many fans will be hoping we can in this window. In short, I don't think we're about to watch anything exciting happen for Arsenal in the market. Sorry. Now what is exciting to fans is obviously a subjective matter, but what I mean is anything from a kind of Ivan Toney or Viktor Osman level signing, down to even maybe a Jakob Kivua level signing of last January window. I'm not saying we're not going to do anything, I suspect we will do something. We can definitely try and be creative in the market and if we get some sales over the line, who knows? I'm just not very optimistic everything falls into place for the box office signing that people really want. The first thing I'll say is I would love to be wrong. If you're here on January the 31st after we've just signed Mbappe commenting lol you idiot, thank you. Comment away. I want to be wrong. But the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that Babs might have to starve this month. Oh my. It's going to be a struggle. So, why do I say this? There's a big picture thing, and then a financial thing, and then a few other things. So let's do big picture things first. When you're nearing the top of world football, improvements are harder to come by. Take David Rye. Statistically, he was a slightly better shot stopper than Ramsdale last season in terms of his underlying numbers. Okay, maybe he claims a few more crosses, has a higher starting position, and so on. But whatever you think of him, no one could argue those improvements have revolutionised us. The question of whether those marginal gains make him worth getting is up to you to decide. Clearly, Mikel felt the difference was worth the investment. But returning to the point, that's because he couldn't revolutionise us. David Rye is going to be unable to be as much better for us than Ramsdale was than his predecessor because Ramsdale is a brilliant goalkeeper who fits our style much better than Leno did. Rye is not going to be able to be part of the difference between six places in the league We're good now, is my point. So it follows that, being good, anyone that massively improves us in any position on the pitch is going to be very, very good. Like Declan Rice. So a player that is good enough to come in this month and get us over the line for a title this season is going to have to be one of the best players in the world. And you know what very good players are? Expensive and often unavailable. Clubs don't want to let them go. Especially in January. Apologies if that's a bit of an obvious point kind of laid out, but I do want to say it for those who say we just need a striker or we just need a winger. Because my response is, who do you mean? In my view, there's just not loads of players who, especially in January, can improve any top team, let alone us, not without shelling out huge, huge money. And that brings me to my next reason. Clearly no one except Arsenal's accountants will know our exact financial position, but based on an understanding of the rules, good reporting on salaries and transfer fees, previous public financial reports published by the club and so on, one can build up a pretty good picture. During the course of researching this video, an Arsenal fan and FFP slash football finance expert reached out to me to give me details of work they had done assessing Arsenal's likely financial position, which I'm going to share with you in a moment. Unfortunately, due to work commitments related to football finance, the person in question cannot be named. But having read the methodology they laid out, I think it's a really good estimate of our position. Firstly, though, before we look at the specifics, we know Arsenal are already in a tricky position financially. Dabid Raya's deal was structured in an unusual way for Arsenal, on an initial season-long loan with an option to buy. It's often forgotten he chose us over buy-in, by the way. There were lots of credible reports at the time that Arsenal had to do this for FFP reasons. The fee cited is £27m for the buy option, and while it's not as simple as, well, Arsenal £27m or less off their FFP limit then, as we'll come to in a second, we can logically So that's the obvious reason big signings are probably off the table, but can we conclude anything more concretely about Arsenal's financial position? The experts say we can. When people say FFP, they're actually referring to three sets of rules that Arsenal need to abide by to take part in the competitions they do. The Premier League's Profit and Sustainability Rules, PSR, UEFA's Financial Sustainability Rules, FSR and UEFA's Squad Cost Rules. The rules are all aimed at ensuring clubs don't spend loads more than they earn and You're allowed to make certain losses per year, and they calculate that by looking at expenses, like player wages, stadium costs, transfer fees out and so on, compared with revenue from things like gate receipts, TV money, transfer fees in and so on. Here we're having a look at the two side by side. Arsenal's revenue has increased, but at the same time, so have our expenses. Also what's important to note is the Premier League rules look over the last three years, so you have to consider Arsenal's heavy spending since financial year 2021-22, not just this year, when calculating their position to spend any more. When taking into account that three year assessment period, working with lots of publicly available data, and then some logical estimates surrounding academy costs, broadcast income, commercial deals and so on, they arrived at this number, £11.9 million. A financial expert thinks Arsenal, based on this estimate, are £11.9 million away from hitting their maximum losses allowed during that three year financial period. £11.9 million. What player, who is going to be proven, hit the ground running, get us over the line for the title, can we get for £11.9 million? And that's before their wages. I think from my reading the Cronkies can put a bit more in if they choose, but it's not much. Some people have suggested the Champions League money will make a difference. It does, of course, but as mentioned, Arsenal have to make themselves sustainable over a longer period of time to abide by these rules, and that money will have been considered both in the summer, when adding huge financial commitments to the club in both fees and wages, It's not as simple as, Arsenal want some group stage games, the money's in the bank account, let's use that. The bottom line is, whatever way you spin it, we're not sat there with £100m in the bank account, ready to make multi-£100m investments at a time in the season when prices are more inflated anyway. The best financial guesses, though you'll forgive me for not seeing Arsenal's books internally, tell us we are unable to. Maybe the club can do some creative accounting, maybe those estimates are just totally wrong, or maybe there's something I just don't know. All possible. But I think there's another point in here too. We know the Cronkies are in it for the long haul, and aren't the type of owners to pay over the odds in January for no reason. While they have done work in January before, we've also seen them stop short of meeting Shakhtar's valuation for Mudrik last winter, despite clearly wanting him, and previously when linked to strikers such as Vlachovic and Isak in January windows gone by, we appear, reportedly, to have walked away from putting down big fees. I can't see this stance changing when, if anything, we look less likely to win a title than we did at this point last January. And certainly the bookmakers agree. Then, finally, for this dessert of the disappointment dinner I've cooked for you, we come to the specific cases of the players we've been linked to. Tony just isn't happening. Brentford having Bermo out, Wishers gone to AFCON, they reportedly want 100 million. Come on. Even if you love the player, please tell me how we make that deal happen. Brentford aren't going to loan us Ivan Toni without a huge amount of money up front if it's on their obligation. They're looking nervously over their shoulders right now after a tricky patch of form, and they won't want to lose a striker. And they would definitely want to replace him this window if he went. Vlachovic? No chance. Hatto? Maybe. But does he come in and push us over the line? Osserman will be far too much. Zubamendi has a release clause, but does he play ahead of Rice, considering his best position is as a six? I just can't see any of the names we're being linked to making a big difference to us in the second half of the season. Equally, we may not know that name right now, and that's not to say that there isn't a name. But my point is, I don't think the name, if it emerges, is going to excite Arsenal fans. Now, sales. Sales might be a way of seeing something happen. If we can get some of the Halem boys out the door, that represents pure profit in terms of the financial rules, and who knows what could happen. But then you look at the specifics of some of those cases too, and I start to get cynical. If we were going to let Eddie go in January, I don't know why we wouldn't have given him permission to talk to Palace, who are interested, according to David Ornstein, to speed that process up. His start against Fulham feels like another sign he's in the plans, and considering the lack of goals we have at the moment, I can't see him leaving. Rhys? I don't know why we'd sign Rhys to a new deal, then set him in January. I can't see that happening unless we have a replacement signed up, considering we're short there, and specifically short of real wingers, maybe, but it feels unlikely, despite reported West Ham interest. And finally, Smithrow. This is the one I can see happening the most, but I don't see us getting loads of money for a player who, despite the promise, has mostly flattered to deceive in recent times, and hasn't scored a league goal for years at this point. Again, I'd love to be wrong, it's just my view. I know I have a lot of patience with this team and coach, and I know it annoys a lot of people watching. I read the comments. And to be clear, I'm never saying my expectations of the team are right, that's a totally subjective thing, and it's up to every individual to decide. But here's how I see it. I predicted us to come second, and I'm willing to wait. I don't want us to make stupid, early decisions on players, or ridiculous financial choices because we're chasing a stopgap signing in January. I want to be sat here, on the different nock, in 2030, with 10 million subscribers, talking about the dominance of Arsenal's seven, eight years, as Mikel gracefully retires and goes to be Barcelona coach. You decide which is more fanciful, the dominance or my YouTube subscribers. We have time on our side. Rice is 24, Saka's 22, Martinelli's 22, Saliba's 22, Urdegaard's 25. I would, of course, love the title this season, and I'm not saying I don't want to win. I want to win. But making the right decisions, not decisions that appease the fans, have got the club into the right position for the first time, sustainably, in 20 years. If we can do the right thing, and it's exciting, great, let's do it. If we can't, I think it's okay. In any case, we may have to wait it out, as January is usually unpredictable. And the first month of the year in the Julian and Grigori. If we don't do anything at all, though, I might unplug my Wi-Fi on January the 31st. If you like The Different Knock, you can support us on Patreon monthly, or you can buy us a coffee.