許成鋼預測2024中國經濟走向，談如何從共產主義信仰者轉變，看透極權制度

First of all, I would like to thank Professor Xu for accepting our interview on China. My first question is, in 1970, when you were under 20 years old, you were the leader of the so-called anti-revolutionary group in Beidahuang Construction Corps. You were also detained, interrogated, and subjected to labor control. In the last year of the 1970s, when you were almost 30 years old, you successfully entered Tsinghua University's Mechanical Engineering Department and became the only graduate student who did not have a bachelor's degree. You said that this is one of the most important turning points in your life. Can you recall a little bit of your history? How important do you think your life experience is? For today's young people, it may also have a certain meaning. For today's young people, does it have a meaning? It's hard for me to say. Because this is a completely different historical period. So for me, at that time, actually after being turned into an anti-revolutionary, my feeling at that time was that I might be an anti-revolutionary for the rest of my life. I'm not an ordinary person. So I will be punished forever. By the end of the Cultural Revolution, I was already very happy that I could be punished. But still, because I actually fled back to Beijing. During the anti-revolutionary period, when the Cultural Revolution was still going on, I fled back. So I fled back to Beijing. I am a homeless person. So as a homeless person, in fact, it's scary. So I actually had a way to take the exam. I could officially become a graduate student at a major university. At that time, there were still very few graduate students in China. So suddenly, from a fourth-class citizen, I became a person who could be recognized in society, a person who could do research work. So for me, this is a change from heaven to earth. From then on, I was able to do research work under the condition that I was fully recognized. You once said that during the collapse of the Soviet Union, the intellectuals of the Soviet Union and a considerable number of people at the top of the Soviet Communist Party understood human nature. And this human nature played a role in the collapse of the Soviet Union. You also think that human nature is a basic characteristic of good people. Can you talk about the long-term research of these socialist countries in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, in addition to economic reasons, is the restoration of human nature an important reason for their final collapse? At the same time, how likely do you think this is in China? This is a very good question. Indeed, human nature is one of the very important basic factors in the collapse of the Communist regime in the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe. This thing should actually be traced back to their history. That is, in history, why did the idea of communism become a revolutionary movement, why did the idea of communism become a revolutionary movement? This is what people need to understand. At the very beginning, many people believed in communism. In fact, they had good wishes. Not all those who believed in communism were evil. Their good wishes were that people pursue equality, that people pursue human nature. Equality is actually an important part of human nature. Pursuing freedom. So they thought that communism was a way to achieve equality, freedom, and human nature. In fact, it was a misguided attempt. Many of the people who entered this path at that time had good wishes. In fact, in the Soviet Union, in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, in their intellectuals, in the intellectuals who believed in communism, most of them had good wishes. And this kind of good wish, this kind of human nature, this kind of basic motivation, has been accumulated over a long time in history. It has results. Later, when people realized the brutality of communism, they realized that communism was against their good wishes. At this time, when people began to awaken, it became the basic force to break down communism. Back to China, many Chinese intellectuals who joined the Communist Party at that time were also like this. But the situation in China was a bit complicated. In the Chinese Communist Party, there were few intellectuals at that time. At the very beginning, intellectuals were the subject. But soon, because of the early development of the Chinese Communist Party, it was a process of armed struggle. The process of armed struggle is that a large number of people who joined the Chinese Communist Party were not intellectuals. So, according to the famous instructions of the Communist Party of China, and multiple instructions, it was required that the Chinese Communist Party directly recruit people from these secret societies, and even recruit people based on the secret society. So there were a lot of other costs in the Chinese Communist Party. It was translated into the language that the Chinese Communist Party likes to use, which is called the rogue producers. This was actually revealed in Mao Zedong's instructions. A large number of people are so-called rogue producers. These people and the one I mentioned earlier often have very different natures. So, when these people continue to develop generation after generation, it is often difficult for the human side to develop. And there will be more intellectuals. It's hard for me to say it all at once, but there will be more intellectuals who will have the basic concept of human nature. Once the basic concept of human nature is enlightened, and then re-emerged and re-developed, then there will be a conflict between him and the rule of communism. Next, I would like to ask you to talk about Xi Jinping, which is often referred to as the great change of the century. So what does it mean? So what does these words have to do with Marx's theory? In fact, this sentence itself does not make much sense. Marxism, at least Marx himself, is trying to develop a set of so-called science. His so-called science is to monitor the development of capitalism. Then, from his so-called science, he is a theory of historical determinism. According to this theory of historical determinism, he will definitely destroy himself due to the contradictions he creates. Then communism will definitely replace capitalism. The first stage of communism is called socialism. And the first stage of communism must be proletariat dictatorship. So this whole thing was originally so-called science. Leninism still thinks itself to be science. Leninism still pursues the consistency of logic and Marxism. Consistency of basic principles. Then he put Marxism, which was originally discussed, that is, only in developed countries is it possible for capitalism to develop to the stage of self-destruction. In this case, it is possible to have the revolution of the proletariat, the revolution of communism, to replace capitalism. But all of this is according to the scientific rules of Marxism. There are certain rules. So Lenin changed his certain rules. He changed from developed capitalism to a semi-colonial country. He said this is the new phase of the development of capitalism. In short, he pursued the consistency of theory. But the so-called century-long revolution that Xi Jinping is talking about now does not exist in theory. It has nothing to do with Marxism or Leninism. So it has nothing to do with Leninism. In theory, it has nothing to do with Marxism or Leninism. But on the other hand, people cannot conclude from this that it has nothing to do with Marxism or Leninism. It is also wrong to say that he gave up Marxism or Leninism. Why? Because the Chinese Communist Party is the product of Marxism or Leninism. The foundation of the Chinese Communist Party is Marxism or Leninism. The Chinese Communist Party has never given up the most basic principles of Marxism or Leninism. What is the most basic principle of Marxism or Leninism? It is the principle of proletariat dictatorship. Marx clearly said in his late years that his main contribution was to invent the principle of proletariat dictatorship. The first world to design and implement the principle of proletariat dictatorship was Lenin. The Chinese Communist Party is the Leninist Party through the Leninist Party. Therefore, all the basic principles of the Chinese Communist Party and all the principles of the Chinese Communist Party are 100% from the Soviet Union Communist Party and 100% from the principle of Leninism. To this day, many people mistakenly believe that Mao Zedong invented the language of the Chinese Communist Party. In fact, most of the language of the Chinese Communist Party was not invented by Mao Zedong, but Lenin. Therefore, the 100-year Great Revolution itself has nothing to do with Marxism. But all the basic principles of the Chinese Communist Party are from the Soviet Union and the Leninist Party. The Chinese Communist Party itself is the Leninist Party. I also want to ask you a question that we all want to know. When you were young, you were a communist believer and you read a lot of books about Marx and Mao. Now you think that the CCP is a totalitarian system that is harmful to all mankind. May I ask what caused your fundamental change? Can you introduce it to us? In fact, my exploration of the communist system or the communist system today began with the Cultural Revolution. During the Cultural Revolution, I thought to myself that I not only believed in Marxism and Leninism, but also admired Mao Zedong. At that time, the problem I wanted to discuss was actually the basic problem of the Cultural Revolution. The basic problem of the Cultural Revolution Mao Zedong said that the Cultural Revolution was a class struggle. And the class struggle of the Cultural Revolution lasted for seven or eight years. As a young man who admired Marxism, I was only 16 years old when I started to explore it. As a young man, I was very serious about communism. This is not just a slogan, but a theory of how to treat communism seriously. In theory, although I was very young at the time, I already found that there was self-contradiction in it. Because communism is a classless society. Socialism is the first stage of a classless society. But Mao Zedong said that the Cultural Revolution was a class struggle. The class struggle lasted for seven or eight years. During the Cultural Revolution, we also realized that the Cultural Revolution did reveal that China had a privileged class. The Cultural Revolution was the subject of the leftists. In the context of the Cultural Revolution, we and the people thought that this was a privileged class. This privileged class was born in the socialist system. If this continues, the socialist system will always have a privileged class. You will always have to fight with the class struggle. You will never achieve communism. As a communist believer, as a follower of Mao Zedong, there are basic problems. My idea at the time was to figure out how to solve these basic problems. But anyone who tries to study this problem is not allowed to do so under the pretext of communism. He must be punished. This is what I don't understand. So it will become a counter-revolution. After it becomes a counter-revolution, I will have to read more books and understand more. Then I will realize that my personal experience is not my personal experience, but the system itself. Under this system, anyone who explores the existence of this system must be severely punished. For example, when Hitler's comrade-in-arms, Gilles, had a different opinion from Hitler, he wrote a famous book called The New Class. He became the enemy of the Communist Party and was imprisoned by the Communist Party. There are many similar examples. Both in the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe. After studying the world more, I realized that this kind of basic system is the basic characteristic of a totalitarian system. This is called a totalitarian system. I didn't understand this in the past. In the past, I only knew that this was called socialism. After reading more, I realized that any socialist system built by the Communist Party cannot tolerate any people with different ideologies and different political views. This change is gradual. It is not sudden. This change is gradually accumulated and gradually understood more. After the Cultural Revolution, before I went abroad to study, I already had a clear understanding. A clear understanding does not mean that I have a clear analysis of totalitarianism. But I have a clear understanding of the basic nature of totalitarianism. I already had a clear understanding at the end of the Cultural Revolution. After the Cultural Revolution, I already had a clear understanding. Last year, on December 8, the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to study the economic work of 2024. It claimed that it would stick to a steady course and make a breakthrough first. Many people are concerned about making a breakthrough first. There are various interpretations. Could you please make an interpretation of this? What do you think the CCP wants to achieve? Actually, I don't have the ability to interpret. The reason is that I don't know what their specific plan is. What I can do is to analyze the problem of the Chinese system and the problem of the Chinese economy. I can analyze what they may do and what the possible effect is. As for what their actual plan is, I don't know. This issue needs to be discussed for a long time. If I don't have time, I can only briefly say that the Chinese system is a totalitarian system. The comparison between the totalitarian system and the countries of the Soviet Union, China and Eastern Europe is that their specific operations are different. Their operations are different to a certain extent. Because their operations are different, their reforms are helpful. In the process of their reforms, they produced a large number of private companies. These private companies became the driving force for the relatively successful development of the totalitarian system. However, because it is a totalitarian system, the private companies are fundamentally contradictory to the totalitarian system. When the Communist Party is fully aware of this contradiction, fully aware that the large-scale development of private companies will shake the foundation of the communist totalitarian system, it will have to take various measures to suppress the totalitarian system. This is what we have seen in the past few years. This is the root of the problem of the Chinese economy. The failure of the Soviet Union to reform the Communist Party is because the communist totalitarian system does not allow the development of private companies. It is impossible to try to reform the communist totalitarian system. The basic principle of the communist totalitarian system is that state-owned enterprises will have a basic phenomenon of weakening and shrinking. This is a very terrible phenomenon. It is equivalent to cancer. China is no exception. Any large-scale state-owned enterprise will have this disease. When the Chinese Communist Party realizes that private companies are a threat to the communist regime, it will use all kinds of methods to control and suppress it. This is what people have been talking about for a long time. When the international people retreat, it is not a gradual retreat, but a gradual decline in investment. When the investment of private companies is declining, the investment of the entire Chinese economy will be invested in state-owned enterprises. This will actually push China back to the path of the Soviet Union. The difference between China and the Soviet Union lies in private companies. When the investment of private companies is declining to a large extent and the investment of state-owned enterprises is almost all invested, the proportion of private companies will change. Of course, China is still on this path. When the economy faces such a serious problem, what is the so-called precedent? I don't know exactly, but what is the so-called precedent? It is the gradual decline of the international people. The gradual decline of the international people may temporarily improve the economic growth of large-scale investment in a short time, but the large-scale investment of state-owned enterprises and the investment of local governments will eventually accumulate and gradually expand. Many people may not understand when I use the phrase of the long-term forecast. The key problem is that state-owned enterprises will not go bankrupt when they do not pay their debts. When they do not pay their debts, all state-owned enterprises will pay their debts very boldly. In fact, if the Chinese government wants to maintain its economic growth, it can only continue to pay debts. The reason why it can continue to pay debts is that these are not state-owned enterprises, but state-owned enterprises. If state-owned enterprises continue to pay debts, they will not face the risk of bankruptcy for individual enterprises. If state-owned enterprises continue to pay debts, they will face financial, financial, and economic crises. This is my basic judgment. We have all seen that China has been under the control of the epidemic for three years. The economic situation has been greatly affected. Now we see that foreign investment is constantly withdrawing. The unemployment rate of young people is very high. The economic situation is very bad. Can you predict how bad China's economy will be in 2024? Yes. In order to understand how bad China's economy will be, we need to understand what happened in the past. During the epidemic, the Qinglin policy caused a great deal of damage. The international community, including the Chinese government, generally believes that the problem in China is due to the Qinglin policy. China has been recovering slowly for the past 23 years. However, in my opinion, this is not entirely due to the epidemic. The epidemic is like snow on ice. Even without the epidemic, China's economy will not be able to recover. I have not mentioned the epidemic. I want to talk about the basic problems that exist in China's system. The first problem is that China's economic growth rate is decreasing. This is a big trend. On the one hand, China's economic growth rate is decreasing. On the other hand, China's carbon emissions are increasing. The most prominent example of this is the real estate market. The real estate market creates conditions for China to face financial and financial crises. But it is hard to predict when these crises will break out. When they will break out is related to many specific operations. If the Chinese government, including the central bank, takes a lot of measures to avoid financial crises, it will not last long. One of the most important means is to freeze some markets. China's real estate market has been frozen in the past two years. Why can some frozen markets avoid financial crises? The reason is that China uses a lot of loans to make mortgages. This means that the total value of a lot of assets is the total value of the real estate market. If the real estate market is not frozen, and the real estate market is fully operational, when the value of China's real estate market drops significantly, it will trigger financial crises. Because the balance sheet of the bank will be in serious trouble. By freezing the real estate market, the balance sheet of the bank can temporarily avoid financial crises. But this is just a temporary solution. This is not a solution. And the freezing of the real estate market will lead to further financial crises. Because freezing means that the real estate market cannot be sold. So basically, unless the government invests in state-owned enterprises on a large scale, they will not need to pay back. The real estate market will not need to be bought. This is a way to stop the economic growth. But this method will not last forever. I think the biggest possibility in the next 24 years These are the methods I just talked about. After using these methods, it will temporarily avoid the financial crisis and the financial crisis. But you will also see that the economic growth in a short time will be a little bit higher. Now that we have discussed this issue, we have to come back and discuss what the economic growth was in the past. In fact, the actual economic growth in 2022 was negative. The actual economic growth in 2023 should be less than 1%, which is between 0% and 1%. The data I am talking about now is based on China's basic data. The official data is not like this. In this context, I think there is a possibility that the economic growth in 2024 will be slightly higher than in 2023. If they adopt the methods I just mentioned, which is to use the hard top, and then further increase the leverage rate, and further borrow money, including printing banknotes, and large-scale investment in state-owned enterprises, in this way, the economic growth will increase from 0% to 1% or 2%. The official numbers are completely different. I think this possibility is relatively large. Of course, the financial crisis and the financial crisis are actually increasing. We don't know when it will break out. I don't rule out that there will be a major financial crisis in 2024. This cannot be ruled out. On the issue of foreign investment, we see that foreign investment is constantly withdrawing. And because Xi Jinping adopts wolf diplomacy, his relations with the United States, Japan, the EU, Britain and Australia are constantly deteriorating. The entire Western world is inclined to decouple from China. In this situation, do you think that the situation in 2024 will be worse? You mean international trade and foreign investment? Yes. In terms of international trade, trade between China and developed countries will decline further. This is almost certain. In fact, in 2023, trade will decline significantly. And in 2024, trade will decline further. But what will be the trend between China and developed countries? I don't know. I don't rule out that there will be an increase in trade between China and developed countries. This cannot be ruled out. The same is true for foreign investment. China's foreign investment from developed countries is very certain. It will decline further. In fact, it has already declined to almost none. It will decline further to almost none. But it may seek foreign investment from developing countries. We need to discuss this. What is the difference? China's great development during the reform and opening up cannot be separated from large-scale trade between developed countries and foreign investment from developed countries. This cannot be separated. The trade between China and developed countries and foreign investment from developed countries can be separated from large-scale trade between China and developed countries. Of course, I am simplifying it. I am not saying that it will be completely separated. I am saying that it will become weaker and weaker. This will make the trade between China and developed countries become weaker and weaker. On the other hand, this will affect China. The Chinese government has been discussing the upgrade and replacement of loans. In fact, the upgrade and replacement of loans cannot be separated from close contacts between China and developed countries. When this becomes weaker and weaker, the upgrade and replacement of loans will become more and more difficult. Especially when it comes to attracting foreign investment. China can attract foreign investment from Arab countries. These foreign investment from Arab countries provide not only funds, but also a large amount of risk investment from the United States. What they provide is far more important than funds. What they provide is technology and management. China's risk capital management method comes from the United States. It relies on the risk capital from the United States to invest in China. It brings out a group of experts in China's risk investment. This has basically stopped now. The investment from Arab countries cannot bring these technologies. Long story short, in terms of technology management, the road for China to continue learning from the West is becoming narrower and narrower. I think that's about it. Recently, we've seen some things happen. At the end of 2023, Hu Shuli's Financial Times published an editorial on real-time investment. He also said that he was about to be fired. He quoted some of Deng Xiaoping's remarks on reform and opening up. He also quoted Xi Jinping's remarks. On the last day of 2023, another article on Li Keqiang, some important people who died in and out of China in 2023, including Kissinger, Jiang Ping, Gao Yaojie, and Yisheng. These people were listed. This article was also immediately deleted. Do you have any comments on this? This is a typical phenomenon in a totalitarian system. In a totalitarian system, people are not allowed to have different opinions. The next question is, what different opinions were expressed in these articles? From these articles, we can see that the authors of these articles wanted China to return to the path of reform and opening up. They wanted to follow the old path of reform and opening up. Obviously, they were not allowed to publish. That's why they were all deleted. The fact that they were not allowed to publish meant that they were telling all readers that if they wanted to follow the old path of reform and opening up, they were definitely wrong. Not only was this not going to happen, but they were not even allowed to say this. This is also why we were discussing the 24-year plan. We said that it would support a much stronger international repression. Yes, because international repression... As we said earlier, the difference between China's reform and opening up and that of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe lies in the development of private enterprises. But this old path cannot be followed anymore. So if you still want to follow the old path, you can't even publish your articles. So they were telling all readers from a different perspective that the old path cannot be followed. The old path cannot be followed. Do you have any advice for the owners of private enterprises? What should they do? For all entrepreneurs, the most important thing is to recognize the situation, recognize the system, and then make a decision. Because whether your decision is good or not depends on whether you understand the system and the development of the system. Only when you recognize the situation can you make the right decision.