🔥🔥：羅家聰博士：2024！香港經濟最大威脅？ 大陸劫你行不歸路？ 高官高喊共你產！ #Lucy連線

I would like you to sum up the past 2-3 years And look at the Hong Kong economy in the past 2-4 years Or the biggest concerns, risks, etc. The past 2-3 years, to be honest, you can look back The so-called recovery, of course, nothing can be recovered But it's not that bad You can see that the market is in a bad shape It's a bit gloomy But over the past year, there are a lot of news on the stock market The companies are not doing so well Especially those in the front line who are doing business The feeling is more obvious But what's bad? There are a lot of things that you can't see For example, the price of the housing market has fallen As I said before, it will fall by about 10% In fact, this year is about the same It's not particularly fast The stock market is also falling But the speed is not particularly fast Everything is actually roughly in the expected speed And within a framework You can't see anything shocking If you look at next year, it's very likely to be the same Those who do media always want to find some focus To find some surprises Those who write reports must find the black swan But it's often not The world is often very boring I think next year will be the same In fact, there won't be a lot of surprises It may be more boring Of course, the situation will be relatively better than this year In terms of level, it's been a long time since the CECAO was raised The expansion of foreign exchange has been very slow Now it is looking for a reduction The global risk of turning bad is here Even some places have obvious signs of shrinking Hong Kong is roughly following the foreign exchange If the foreign exchange is not good It's hard to say that it will rise This is for sure When the foreign exchange is bad It will also lead to some crises In fact, the mainland is now asking for water You said outside that Christmas is coming Christmas, New Year's Eve, OK Let's wait and see You can see that the recent data is OK But when it turns bad In fact, the pressure is already there So it's a little bit of a day When it comes, suddenly a lot of people talk I guess it will be more turbulent in the first half of next year After all, now things have risen to a high position Really pretend nothing Pretend to be a golden hair But if the result is not When it comes back In the new market, especially in the mainland When it's bad again The risk of the whole world suddenly turns bad Hong Kong and France are all upside down The situation in the first half of the year will be more turbulent Will sit in a low position But maybe after sitting in a low position Because the whole situation is weak But it's not a black swan It's not that the world is not that kind of person If you don't go like this Things will turn bad It's not just a breath of air It's just a stage If things fall apart in the first half of the year Maybe it will come back in the second half of the year As a result, there will be a V-shape all year round It's the same in 2023 The first two or three quarters of the year One down Very powerful But it will come back at the end of the year Even if you are outside the U.S. stock market Break the top Don't rule out this kind of situation next year Of course, it won't look like a dip I think it will be more difficult to break the top Because after all, there are some things that are too tough to bear But it doesn't have to be a dip all year round It's still up and down In my personal opinion, it's first down, then up The economy is now, as you have mentioned, The funds are running out, the foreign funds are running out Maybe the Chinese funds are coming in Now I see a registration number There are more and more Chinese companies in Hong Kong The foreign funds are getting less and less Like now, in 2023, there are only 1,336 companies The total is Hong Kong's foreign funds In 2019, 1,541 companies are leaving Now we can say that the economy in Hong Kong is mainly dependent on Is it mainland China? But you have said before, It can't be dependent on mainland China Foreign funds have to leave What does it depend on? It depends on some very basic things Your basic life, food, housing You can't say that you don't have it, right? Millions of people eat every day Live in a house every day You have to spend money on food and housing That's it But these things won't expand rapidly Don't expect a very high growth Everything is relatively low This is the inevitable result In fact, foreign countries are the same For example, you look at advanced systems The aging ones are the same There will be no high growth It depends on whether you can stand it Can you accept it? If you are like those in Japan Will you be able to accept low growth? Relatively speaking, there is no problem for the rich and the poor But if you say no I plan the economy Everything has to be remodeled Must have a goal every year 14, 15 years Have to set goals every year You can't do it if you set it If you have to raise big numbers every time It is impossible to raise like this every year If you don't want to start a big business Want a good number Basically no problem Of course, in the long run, you have to worry What is your path? In the past, Hong Kong did international business Now there is no international business What do you do? Now it is said that the international business Maybe do some business in the Communist camp The more you do, the more you will be sanctioned by the West You have to think about it Is it really like this? This is a dead end Of course, the mainland will catch you But people in Hong Kong Don't do this at all There is no such thing Professionals Expertise to do this Can't do it Just do it When dealing with funds In the end, everyone has to ask Where is the basic income? You said that those countries have money How much money did you receive? What kind of business can we do? This so-called internal circulation What kind of circulation is it? Just like those in the West The whole system is already very mature A lot of things can be done Now you say Let's get rid of the West, the Communist camp Work hard The International Financial Center The so-called international Communist International Financial Center What are you doing? What is inside? Where is the growth engine? A lot of questions have not been answered And now in fact A lot of things have not been done For example, you are now stuck in Russia How do you help Russia to issue bonds? Is Russia issuing bonds in Hong Kong? Is a lot of stocks listed in Hong Kong? These things are easy to say Have you done it before? Never tried In fact, there are some things I thought the direction of the road was Have you been there? If you haven't been there, you can't get out You can't get through In fact, the result is that it can't be done Let's talk about a few political messages The newspaper also knows that the Chinese Communist Party The State Council of Hong Kong A statement by Xia Baolong Everyone has some reflections or thoughts He said that he called on the Hong Kong individuals It is a matter of national interest and democracy In the face of Hong Kong's overall interests Any individual, enterprise, school or unit Organized interests are small interests There is a great interest in subordinating national democracy to Hong Kong And he also said this to the Communist Party of China Let the individual small me Merge into the big me of Hong Kong, the big me of the country These remarks in Hong Kong It is very common for Hong Kong A command from above A command What do you think of these factors What impact does it have? Very bad Simply put, it is the Communist Party's property Any enterprise will consider its own interests Why should it consider the country's interests? It should consider the overall interests The market economy In capitalism, it only considers its own interests Why should it consider other people's interests? Other people's interests are for the government to consider Not for me to consider You say such words You just want to have money When you want to have money Everyone knows what to do It's hard for you to let people continue to invest and continue to do business It's hard Join the Honorary Membership Protect Hong Kong with us Protect 1.4 billion Chinese The right to get real information For the Hong Kong stock market Is it in the future In everyone's eyes How to say There is no hope that it will continue to fall I think you see It has fallen From 2018 to now In fact, the whole structure is The funds keep going This can be seen very clearly from the falling pattern Many times in the process of falling market The falling pattern is Falling gradually To some extent There will be some rebound Like these days Either there is news or policy If not Usually Those funds Or those foreign institutions Investors Gradually reduce This is the biggest chance Because if you look at the chart It slowly falls This is like falling Falling Usually Institutional investors Or those big ones Made out Not those scattered Those Panic Not that one So if this is a big money Just You In the past If you remember Hong Kong has a saying 70% of the Hong Kong stock market is institutional investors 30% is scattered If you take 70% of the institutional investors If you go all the way If you look at the HSI 70% Now it's a little bit worse 33,000 is the highest 70% It's a bit slower But institutional investors are not all foreign investors Some are their own 6G, HKG Those may not go So if you take the foreign investors Most of the institutional investors Go all the way May fall to these positions now Almost So the one before Keep going down In fact, the foreign investors are still clearing the window Clear until now Clear Then you may follow Down to the current level Floating Of course If it rises again in the future There are many reasons For example, inflation Prices are also rising You buy Buy a roll of paper and kneel down Kneel down When kneeling That Growth index Kneel down This is not a A big rise with funds That kind of phenomenon But I saw the state-owned enterprises And tech stocks Same Falling Is this also What kind of news is released? Is it because the stock market has said Now Hong Kong's stock market is almost 70-80% are mainland stocks If 70-80% are mainland stocks Foreign investors have to go Then it can also be So the future stock market The stock market is still the same Sugar water pipe sugar fish It can be the same If you are in technology It's a bit narrow Because now technology has more factors Is likely to be sanctioned by the United States Recently added List On his list You don't know Now his technology stocks The bigger they are, the more likely they are to be sanctioned You don't know which ones have a chance From an institutional investor Fund He is not very brave In this position No matter how good your technology is To add If you don't reduce it, it's a joke Because if you don't reduce it, when you sanction it You have enough money Frozen If it's frozen, you can't get it back So institutional investors Generally not very willing Take this risk Don't want to be too What to do in this position Even if your technology is really good Good performance So you see the past One-time play Hong Kong's technology stocks are not high Really The risk of sanctioning is high So the science is actually from the highest If you keep throwing it down But at the same time If your fund itself Or institutional investors The preference is to buy technology Or buy some high-risk, high-return He went back to the US stock market So you can see If the US stock market At that time He went to These tech stocks The first seven Seven red are also tech stocks This exchange rate In the past Less than a year and a half The number is very clear Hong Kong stocks fell for four years Hong Kong's financial situation It's the same as five years and four years That's the situation Now we can also see the government's announcement The financial situation of the first eight months In the first eight months, the situation was 16.41 billion yuan This is the same as Cai Ye and Chen Baobao But Cai Ye As Chen Chang said, next year There is still a good chance to face this situation Now How do you look at this situation And how to say Future Hong Kong's Stability Is there any way to turn it around? Is it a structural problem? There is no way to change This is Part of structural There are also non-structural parts Every time it falls Stability everywhere This is not limited to Hong Kong Anywhere, no matter how strong the financial situation If it falls, it will fall But Whether it's structural You also have A global factor For example, the global population Growth is declining In fact, this structural Financial stagnation Everywhere Hong Kong may be a little more So First of all, it is a period A long term In fact, it is not necessary Regulate Every time Everywhere After a few years Nothing The problem is the structural Long-term trend In fact, you can see Global population aging Financial balance Because everyone is bad But some are faster Some are slower Hong Kong is always faster In addition to the population aging birth rate The population is the oldest in the world Hong Kong has already known Data In addition There is a more obvious outflow This is not only Hong Kong The whole mainland has this phenomenon Few people were born Long life Plus a lot of people left The proportion of old people is getting bigger When the proportion is getting bigger The problem is getting worse To be honest If you have a low birth rate Many people die That's okay People are all dead Few people Not now You have a low birth rate But old people Don't die Long life This burden will become heavy So I think Difficult He said The main reason New tax Let the main income But it is the end of the fiscal year Receive What does that mean? Don't be so high What do you think of this statement? In fact Pay tax You pay once a year Usually Tax Year of tax The end of the fiscal year is the end of March Then usually the tax bill is Around November Start to pay taxes Then Pay in January Pay in April Usually like this So if you Received from the government Booked into the account Before January The number is more difficult You go to January A lot of people pay taxes in January Pay in April If you pay Property or property related Pay earlier May be before the end of the year This period The government has money So if you look at the figure Monthly Meaning is not very big Monthly We don't look at it Monthly For example, you can sell land that month Can't sell land These are very different Suddenly you can sell land that month The number will be much bigger So be serious Honest view Is to look at it all year But a lot of people don't have patience It's always the end of the fiscal year You have to guess Sing first There is no way Protect Hong Kong together Protect 1.4 billion Chinese The right to get real information