【精彩】潘焯鴻： 幾個最大黑天鵝阻住香港發展！ #Lucy連線

There is a black swan, the biggest black swan this time, I think there are at least three black swans. These three black swans may be related to other events. I will talk to you about the three black swans that are affecting the development situation in Hong Kong. First of all, let's talk about some black swan events. There are three black swans. First of all, we don't know when the Tri-Central Association will be held. Generally speaking, the Tri-Central Association will talk about the economy. After the personnel arrangement is completed, the Tri-Central Association will basically summarize the economic development in the past five years, including the results of the past economic planning, and the problems encountered in the process. Then the Tri-Central Association will decide on some directions. Of course, in terms of China's economic development, we can't look at it from our perspective. Even if Deng Xiaoping promotes economic reform, there will be great obstacles in the process of reform and opening up. That's why there was the incident of Nanchun in 1997. Nanchun originally wanted to promote a policy of reform and opening up that faced great political pressure. Nanchun or Deng Xiaoping's promotion of economic reform was also announced by the Tri-Central Association. Sorry, it's not Nanchun, it's reform and opening up. Then China decided to promote a socialist system with Chinese characteristics, which is basically capitalism, and issued political signals to the Tri-Central Association. What is the process of deepening reform now? The problems we are facing now, including what we often say, it seems that China is now trying to advance and retreat. It hopes that in many sectors, the national team will take over the public-private economy. Recently, there are some pictures, some law enforcement agencies, even said that they have a low-level staff. He said that China is now running a public-private economy. Everything is public, there is no private property. This is very scary. What is the direction? In the past few years, I have heard a lot of these words. Including Guo Shui-Wen Jin, who seems to see rich people one by one, rich people one by one. When he ranks in the top ten rich people, or the top few, then he will fall. Then his assets will be gone. The assets will be lost, or he will be fired. Will these situations continue to occur? Is it a big trend? Or Beijing's stock market. Basically, the meaning of Beijing's stock market is to control China's economic market by small and medium-sized enterprises. It does not allow large platform institutions to dominate the entire market. Is this the direction of development? In the past few years, people have felt that China's reform and opening up, or the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, the economic development is going in which direction? Actually, it is not very clear. Originally, the three major media may focus on the direction of economic development, including reform or deepening reform. There is a very clear political signal, even a political decision. But now it is postponed. Why? Will it be postponed? In many sectors, there is not yet a sufficient policy decision base. So it takes more time to see what policy is going on. This may be positive. The positive reason is that it needs to think more clearly about what to do, or find a way to address the current economic problem. Is it necessary to relax the tax law? Is it necessary to use money to save the economy? Is it necessary to use money to promote consumption? These may need sufficient evidence, and a sufficient evidence base to form a decision or a policy, or a political decision. When will this decision be made? I believe that when this decision is made, the three major media will be held. Now it is the end of October, and the New Year will be in January. Xi Jinping is also used to going to rural areas to interview people before the New Year. Basically, from the first half of January to the first half of February, he will focus on visiting rural areas to interview people. Therefore, the three major media will not be held. If it is held in the beginning of January, it will be too late. The three major media will most likely be held after the Lunar New Year. It may even be held at the end of March. During this period, where will the Chinese economy go? There is no clear direction. Everyone is suspicious of the development of the Chinese economy. In fact, the acceleration and momentum are also limited. Even if we want to use the inner loop to boost consumption, to boost consumption to make the economy grow. Of course, the economic growth of the third quarter is better. There is an increase of about 5%. But can it last long? Even if this momentum appears, at least now, including civil servants, the government has not yet returned to normal. The local government's debt can't be repaid. In addition, the local government has not been able to use the cash and there is no more reserve. Because the three-year epidemic includes constant inspection, even the reserve has been consumed. How can the local government restore the track from 2019 or earlier? This includes the new funds from the civil servants to the central government. This is likely to be a major decision by the central government. It can also be reflected that even if the situation outside is very good, even if all the data outside is very good, there will not be a breakthrough until the three-year epidemic is over. In addition, there is the Honghai Hucai armed group which is an attack event of the Honghai Hucai armed group. The Honghai Hucai armed group is an anti-government armed group that aims to overthrow the current government and take over Yamen's regime. The Honghai Hucai armed group is supported by Iran. Iran and Saudi Arabia have improved their relationship so the Honghai Hucai armed group is willing to negotiate with the current Yamen government. The Yamen government is supported by Saudi Arabia and the Honghai Hucai armed group is supported by Iran. The Honghai Hucai armed group has been stagnant for more than a year and has not moved much. Saudi Arabia's attack on the Hucai armed group and the war to help the Yamen government have remained for more than a year. The Honghai Hucai armed group suddenly attacked the Honghai merchant ship two weeks ago. The Honghai merchant ship left the Mediterranean and was preparing to transport goods from Europe to Southeast Asia or South Asia. Or from Southeast Asia or South Asia to Europe through the Suez Canal must enter the Honghai. Honghai is between the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean, including the Suez Canal and the middle of the Honghai. When the Hucai armed group attacked the merchant ship, the merchant ship did not dare to cross the Honghai because the Honghai is relatively narrow. The Hucai armed group's missiles can hit the merchant ship and can't avoid it. The sea is not wide enough to avoid the Hucai's attack. Of course, the European and American ten countries, including Yemen and Africa, have decided to form an alliance to protect the safety of the Honghai. But for the commercial sector, it is impossible. Even if you are willing to guard it, the cost of the treasure is higher and they can't afford it. If the goods are attacked or the merchant ship is attacked, they may not be able to afford it. Therefore, all large merchant ships and large merchant teams have cancelled the transport through the Suez Canal to return to the Mediterranean and India. They all went out to the east coast of the Atlantic Ocean along the west coast of Africa through Mongolia to return to Southeast Asia or India. This route is longer and increases all transport prices. Free prices and natural gas prices have not suddenly risen by 10%. Even if it is a little better in the past two days, London and Europe have spent $80 on gas. The U.S. has spent $73 on gas and suddenly increased to $70. It is obvious that Russia and OPEC are behind this. The 10 countries have formed an alliance to protect the safety of the Honghai. The Middle East, on the other hand, is on the north side of the Suez Canal. It should theoretically participate, but it refuses to participate. Or it refuses to participate in the ASEAN, which is closer to the West. In the whole Middle East, only Bahrain participates. These countries do not participate, but to some extent support the rise of gas prices. They hope to use some incidents to increase gas prices. This is the same as Russia's political and economic trend. So OPEC is the oil group controlled by the Middle East and Russia. Basically, their goal is to reduce production and increase gas prices. If these Middle East or OPEC countries do not participate in the Honghai protection or protection of Honghai, to some extent, their oil prices will rise. In this situation, one of them is Angola, an African country. There is obviously a very large and complex diplomatic activity going on behind this. Angola announced yesterday that it will withdraw from the oil group. They believe that the oil group constantly hopes to use reduction in production to raise oil prices. For Angola, producing 1.1 million barrels per day, but for its economically prosperous country, reduction in production will reduce its country's income, or it will not be able to produce more foreign exchange income. Angola announced yesterday that it will withdraw from the oil group. The oil group does not want to participate in the protection of Honghai. Angola does not want to stop. It continues to attack Honghai. Iran is also a force behind Angola. Iran and Russia are very close. Middle East countries, including Angola, are also very close to Russia. Putin also interviewed Saudi Arabia and Israel two weeks ago. All of these can be seen as a power struggle between Russia and Europe and the United States. For Russia, the sanctions against Europe and the United States, not to mention the support for Ukraine in the war in Ukraine, but the sanctions against Russia's economy, Russian companies and individuals, make it difficult for Russia's economy to move. Although Russia is not bad, in addition to inflation, other economic performance is also good. If the oil price continues to fall, even if Russia does not sell oil to Europe, the United States or North America, it will sell to other countries such as India and mainland China. If the oil price continues to fall, and the oil price continues to fall, Russia will lose its last source of income. Fortunately, gold has also risen. Russia is well aware that many African countries operate in gold mining. Therefore, Russia has enough income to support it. For the Middle East, for the oil-based countries, they also know that because of the current carbon emissions, Europe and the United States constantly want to ban the use of fossil fuels. If there is really a decision, between 2030 and 2050, it may be reduced or banned. This is the use of fossil fuels, or alternative fuels. Therefore, the treasures hidden in the Middle East are worthless. Before there is an international decision to ban or limit the use of fossil fuels, they hope that the current fossil fuels can bring the richest benefits to their countries and their regions. They use this money to run their countries and survive. Therefore, they clearly oppose the use of fossil fuels at the UN General Assembly. At the same time, they also hope to reduce production and increase oil prices. It is obvious that oil prices have risen by 10%. How will the Red Sea crisis continue? I believe it won't happen. Even if the U.S. bombs the U.S. frigate, it won't work. As long as the frigate hits a ship, it will reach its goal. Even if the frigate can't hit a ship, it will reach its goal. Because insurance companies and transportation companies won't dare to use the Red Sea Line again. Even the 10th Army won't succeed. For example, Australia won't send warships or planes to the Red Sea. For Australia, it will cost a lot of money but it won't work. As long as the frigate can hit a ship, it will reach its goal. In this situation, if the U.S. can't reduce oil prices, CPI will go up. In fact, CPI will go up. Oil prices have gone up by 10%. If CPI goes up, will the PCE go up too? In addition to the Red Sea crisis, the U.S. will increase the price of oil to boost U.S. inflation. The trend was good. In October, the inflation in the U.S. was good. CPI and PCE are Consumer Price Index. Consumer Price Index is the price trend of consumer goods in the U.S. This is a fixed product structure. Every two years, oil, flour, etc. are put in the index. Then the price trend of goods is measured to reflect U.S. inflation. But CPI is not so humanized. It's simple. If the oil price is high, we may reduce the number of cars, so that consumers use less oil. There is no consumer mode or consumer consumption to show inflation. If CPI is high, Americans may not spend more money and avoid expensive goods. This is another inflation data in the U.S. PCE Personal Consumption Expenditures is the level of personal consumption. The level of personal consumption will fluctuate. For example, if the price of flour drops, consumers may buy more flour products. If the price of pork does not fall, consumers may eat more pork and less beef. Therefore, the PCE data will not fluctuate. For example, the price of oil and natural gas will rise due to the sea attack. CPI will not rise. Because the calculation includes the price of natural gas, natural oil, and natural gas. However, for real U.S. consumer consumption, if the oil price is high, consumers may even drive less cars. This may affect their monthly spending. Therefore, the PCE data in the U.S. may be closer to real inflation. This is a data from the Federal Reserve. This data will make Americans feel pain. The 2% goal of the Federal Reserve is also a PCE goal, not a CPI goal. In November, the initial PCE value was 2.3. This is the 2% goal of the Federal Reserve. However, in October, the Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the PCE value. This means that the U.S. will reduce its PCE value and the U.S. dollar will be weaker. Is this true? Even if the PCE data in the U.S. is closer to the 2% goal, the Federal Reserve said the PCE value will not be reduced and the PCE value will not be increased. This depends on inflation and economic data. Russia seems to cooperate with Iran to increase the price of oil and gas because most of the goods are shipped from Asia to Europe. As a result, these prices have all risen. Will this increase the PCE value? Will this increase the PCE value? If the two data related to inflation also rise, the U.S. may not be able to continue to increase the PCE value. We often hear that the U.S. will reduce its PCE value next year, but this is not the case. Investment is sensitive to the price of goods, including the price of some stocks, including stocks related to oil and natural gas, and even the price of natural gas. During this transition, there will be a big fluctuation. Will it really go down? Will the stock market go down? Because the funds that are deposited in the stock market have a relatively low return. This will push money out to find investment opportunities. Will the stock market and other markets move up because of this? Will the stock market and other markets move up because of this? This is possible, but at the same time, the chance of going down is greater. Many of these black swan events, including the Hucai armed attack, have caused a greater wave. Even if the price of oil and natural gas goes down overall, the price of oil and natural gas may go down from this level to this level. That is, the price of oil and natural gas will slowly go down from a stable level to a very large wave. So there will be a high price one day. If the price of oil and natural gas goes up, the price of oil and natural gas may go down. But if you want to buy some foreign currency to make money, you may lose. The US 10-year bond rate has fallen to 3.9. Is this a big trend? Will Hong Kong lose money because of this? It seems that there may not be a definite factor. The US CPI and the US PCE will not continue to fluctuate because of the Hong Kong incident. Another factor that will affect the stock market is the use of Russian frozen funds. Russian funds have about 30,000 billion euros frozen. 30,000 billion euros have been frozen. In Belgium, the European Union has frozen about 18,000 billion euros. Luxembourg has also frozen a few trillion euros. The US has also frozen a few trillion dollars. Can these frozen Russian funds be used to help Ukraine or help Ukraine rebuild? This is a question mark. The reason is that there is no sufficient legal basis, no sufficient legal framework to take out these frozen funds to help Ukraine. The US and the UK originally stated that the Christmas holiday in Europe and the US is the most important holiday of the year. Basically, after mid-December, politicians and investment institutions will be closed. So before mid-December, the US and the UK will find a legal solution to use Russian funds. But Belgium has made it clear that the G7 will decide what to do and what not to do. Otherwise, Belgium will not be allowed to use Russian funds by the European Central Bank. The use of Russian funds or the use of the profits generated from these funds may be the first step. But what will Russia react to this? Will Russia's reaction affect the stock market? Originally, they were in agreement. But because of the holiday, the Christmas holiday, the political atmosphere suddenly calmed down. At the beginning of January, the US and the UK will start to recover both politically and in terms of activities. At the beginning of January, about two weeks later, the US and the UK will start to use Russian funds. This may cause the stock market in Europe and the US to fluctuate. The stock market may fall. Overall, in the next week or so, the situation should have calmed down. In the Christmas holiday, the situation should have calmed down. Otherwise, the big banks would have closed. But remember that the Hong Kong stock market is not in the hands of Europe or the US. Therefore, their holiday has little impact on Hong Kong. For them, the use of Russian funds and the attack on the Red Sea have caused the price of oil and gas to rise. This may cause the stock market to fluctuate. In the past two weeks, the Nasdaq index has risen sharply. The US stock market has risen sharply. But the day before yesterday, it suddenly dropped by more than 400 points. Overall, the stock market may fluctuate. Overall, the investment environment may fluctuate. Many unexpected things may happen. Let's talk about China's stock market. China's stock market is doing well. China's stock market in Hong Kong had fallen to the bottom before the end of the year. Some companies had to close down. But now, some investors have invested money in Chinese companies. The success of Chinese companies was due to Tesla's sudden stop in the price war. This may have something to do with the Chinese government's intervention. In the future, the price of BMW may rise to a reasonable level. 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