【精彩】潘焯鴻： 幾個最大黑天鵝影響香港發展前景！ #Lucy連線

Now it's a public-private economy, everything is public-private, no private property. This is very scary. Okay, what is the direction? In the past few years, I have heard a lot of these words. Including Guo Shuiwen, it seems to see rich people one by one, rich people one by one. When he ranks on the top of the top 10 rich people, or the top few, then he will fall. Then his assets will be gone, his assets will be lost, or he will be fired. Will these situations continue to occur? Is it a big trend? Or the stock market in Beijing, the meaning of the stock market in Beijing is basically to be controlled by small and medium-sized enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises to control China's economic market, not to be dominated by large-scale platform institutions. Is this the direction of development? In the past few years, people have felt that China's reform and opening up, or the economic development in China's special socialist system, what direction is it going in? In fact, it is not very clear. Okay, the three major media may focus on the direction of economic development, including reform, or the place of deepening reform, there is a very clear political signal, even a political decision. But now it is delayed. Why? Will it be delayed? In many sectors, there is not yet a sufficient basis for a policy decision. So it takes more time to look at the policy. This may be positive. The reason for the positive is that he needs to think more clearly about what to do, or find a way to address the current economic problems. Including whether to do this measure of relaxation, whether to use money to save the economy, whether to use money to promote consumption. These may need sufficient evidence. After having sufficient evidence, to form a decision, or a policy, or a political decision. Okay, when will this decision come out? I believe that when these decisions are made, the three major media will be held. Now it is the end of October. Then in January, the New Year will be ready. Xi Jinping is also used to going to the countryside to interview. Basically, from the first half of January to the first half of February, he will focus on visiting rural areas, or visiting remote places. So the three major media will not be held. If it is to be held in early January, it is already time to know. In other words, the three major media will most likely be held after the Lunar New Year. It may even be held at the end of March. During this period, where has the Chinese economy gone? There is basically no clear direction. And everyone is indeed suspicious of the development of the Chinese economy. In fact, the momentum of the acceleration is also limited. Even if we want to make an inner loop now, we hope to use the inner loop to boost consumption, to use consumption to drive economic growth. Of course, the economic growth of the third quarter is better. There is a growth of about 5%. But can this be sustained? Is it enough? Even if this momentum appears, at least now, including civil servants, they pay their wages once, pay their wages eight times, pay their wages seven or five times. These situations have not yet returned to normal. The local government's debt can't be repaid. In addition, the local government's current cash-out can't be used, and there is no more reserve. Because the three-year epidemic includes constant testing, even the reserve has been consumed. So how can the local government restore the track from 2019 or before? Including the cash on the civil servants, can they get it back to them at 8% speed? This is very likely to be a major decision by the central government. There is no such thing now, but it can also be reflected. Even if the situation outside is very good, even if all the data outside or all the situation is very good, Henshan Index or our entire stock market will not have a breakthrough development until the three-year meeting is held. In addition, there is a Tentatino, which is the attack incident of Honghai Hucai Arms. Yamen's Hucai Arms is basically an anti-government arm, hoping to overthrow the current government and take over the Yamen regime. Hucai Arms is supported by Iran, and then because of the improvement of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Hucai Arms is willing to negotiate and negotiate with the current Yamen government. The Yamen government is supported by Saudi Arabia, and Hucai Arms is supported by Iran. Hucai Arms has been stagnant for more than a year, and has not moved much, or Saudi Arabia to attack or suppress Hucai Arms to help the Yamen government suppress the Hucai Arms war, which has basically remained for more than a year. Hucai Arms suddenly attacked Honghai Ships about 10 days ago, two weeks ago, on Thursday. Honghai Ships when they left the Mediterranean Sea, were ready to transport goods from Europe to Southeast Asia or South Asia, or from Southeast Asia or South Asia to Europe, through the Suez Canal, must enter the Red Sea. The Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean, including the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, are in the middle. When Hucai Arms attacked the ships, the result was simple. The ships did not dare to cross the Red Sea because the Red Sea is relatively narrow. Hucai Arms' missiles or missiles can hit the ships above and can't avoid it. The sea is not wide enough to avoid their attack. Of course, 10 European and American countries, including Yemen, and Africa, have decided to form an alliance to protect the safety of the Red Sea. But for the commercial sector, it is impossible. Even if you are willing to guard the Red Sea, the cost of protection is high. They can't stand it. If the goods are attacked by the ships, they will die. Therefore, all commercial ships have cancelled the Suez Canal and the Red Sea to return to the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean. They all went out to the west coast along the west coast of Africa through Mongolia to return to Southeast Asia or India. This route is longer and increases all transportation prices. The price of oil and gas has not suddenly risen by 10%. Even if the price of oil and gas has returned to normal in the past two days, the oil used in London and Europe has already reached the 80-dollar mark. The US dollar is also at a 73-dollar level. It suddenly rose to a level of more than 60 dollars. This is obvious. There must be a Russian and European shadow behind this. Let's look at the 10 countries that have joined forces to protect the security of the Red Sea. It is natural to think that countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, are on the Red Sea, on the north coast of the Suez Canal. They should be involved, but they refused to participate. Or the Arab countries that are closer to the West also refused to participate. In the Middle East, they are supporting the rise of oil prices. they are supporting the rise of oil prices. They hope to use some incidents to raise oil prices to a higher level. This is a trend in Russia's political and economic or hope is the same. So the OPEC, which is the oil group controlled by the main Middle Eastern countries, basically hopes to reduce production and to raise oil prices. The fact that these countries do not participate in the Red Sea protection or protection of the Red Sea can reflect the rise of oil prices. In this case, one of them is Angola, which is obviously a very large and complex diplomatic activity. Angola just announced yesterday that it will withdraw from the oil group. They believe that the oil group constantly hopes to use reduction to raise oil prices. For Angola, producing 1.1 million tons per day but for its economically prosperous countries, reduction will reduce production or create more foreign exchange income. Angola announced yesterday that it will withdraw from the oil group. The oil group does not want to participate in the protection of the Red Sea. Hussein's army does not want to stop attacking the Red Sea. Iran is also the power behind the Hussein's army. Iran and Russia are very close. Middle Eastern countries, including oil groups, are also very close to Russia. Two weeks ago, I interviewed Saudi Arabia and Israel. It can be seen as Russia and European and American power behind the Hussein's army. For Russia, the sanctions against European and American countries, not to mention the support for Hussein's army in the war in Ukraine, make the Russian economy difficult to operate. Although Russia is not bad, its economic performance is not bad. But overall, it still hinders Russia's development and even consumes Russia's national wealth. For Russia, if the price of oil drops, Russia will not be able to sell oil to Europe, the United States, or North America, but to other countries, such as India and mainland China. If the price of oil continues to fall, and the price of oil continues to fall, Russia will not even have the opportunity to buy oil. Fortunately, the price of gold has also risen. As we all know, Russia operates gold mines in many African countries. As a result, Russia has enough income to support it. For Middle Eastern countries, for oil-producing countries, they also know that because of the current carbon emissions, Europe and the United States want to ban the use of fossil fuels. If there is a decision, between 2030 and 2050, the use of fossil fuels will be banned. There will be more new energy or alternative energy. As a result, the treasures of Middle Eastern countries will become worthless. So until now, before there is an international decision to ban or limit the use of fossil fuels, they hope that it can bring the richest benefits to their countries and their regions. They use this money to make enough savings so that they can continue to operate and survive in the future. Because of this, they are now more clearly opposed to the restriction of fossil fuels at the United Nations International Climate Summit. At the same time, the oil price has risen by 10%. How serious will this crisis be? I don't think it will happen. Even if the U.S. bans the use of fossil fuels, it is useless. As long as it can hit a ship with a missile, it will be a success. Even if it can't hit a ship with a missile, it will be a success. Because insurance companies will not dare to use the Red Sea Line again, including insurance companies will not dare to use the Red Sea Line again, even if there is a ten-nation alliance. For example, Australia does not want to send warships or planes to the Red Sea. For Australia, this is a waste of money to reach the goal of raising the oil price. In this case, if the U.S. can't control the oil price, the CPI of the U.S. may rise. In fact, the CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise because the oil price has risen by 10%. If the CPI of the U.S. rises, will the PCE also rise? The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. The CPI of the U.S. will definitely rise. However, the real consumption of U.S. consumers if the oil is very expensive may even drive less