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Hello, Dr. Lee. It's almost New Year's Eve. I want to ask you a question, Dr. Lee. You often hear people talking about a new Hong Kong. I want to ask you, why do you think people are suspecting that Hong Kong has become a new Hong Kong now? Why is it that the new Hong Kong is not liked by so many people but more people like it? The new Hong Kong is just what the regime says. We have never had a new Hong Kong. If you ask us, it is now destroyed in Hong Kong. You have finished your sentence. If Hong Kong has no more Hong Kong people, then it is not Hong Kong. You are very clear. You have driven away all the original Hong Kong people. You have destroyed all the mainlanders. This is not Hong Kong. You said it was Hong Kong. He said it was a new Hong Kong. It's just what he said. I have never admitted it. Now you are talking about this topic. I see that Hong Kong still has a new immigration policy. It can invest 30 million. Then the government said that it can invest 1,200 billion in new funds. And the previous high-level transaction plan To be honest, now you say that the blood exchange plan continues to strengthen. You know, in the early 1980s, the mainland was so anxious to recover Hong Kong. In fact, Hong Kong has a very important function which is to get money from the mainland. Hong Kong is a point where a lot of foreign exchange is brought back to the mainland. Even now Which place in the mainland can get so much foreign exchange in Hong Kong? Now Hong Kong has a lot of money. In fact, if Hong Kong's function or Hong Kong's positioning or role is still there, you have to continue to play this thing and continue to get foreign exchange. Now all the people here are gone. People don't believe that this is Hong Kong. When all the people are gone, the money is gone. Then you move the North Sea down. You say there is a lot of money here. How much do you go? How much do I fill? You are self-deceiving. Because you want Hong Kong now. The Communist Party always wants Hong Kong to make money. If you take Hong Kong, you have to pour water yourself and throw money down. What can you say? In fact, you have lost your function. Now you tell people that you are still an international agent. You still say that you are an international agent. Then you have to have some evidence. It's not empty talk. For example, how many things are international in Hong Kong? 70% of the things on the board are from the mainland. Liang Dingbang said it himself. How much foreign exchange do you have? In fact, if you have foreign exchange, it's not 16,000. 30,000 Hong Kong dollars, 40,000 Hong Kong dollars. The whole thing is different. Hong Kong's foreign exchange has always been to experience finance. If you can't experience foreign exchange in finance Then you are a financial center, but not an international one. If it's not international, you can't get foreign exchange. In fact, Hong Kong is no longer the same as Hong Kong before. In fact, one sentence has been said. Now everyone in Hong Kong is very concerned about a topic. Everyone knows him. The founder of a media company, Li Zhiying's case Now the court is going to talk about his national security law. In fact, now you can see that the US, Britain and Europe Wait for Western countries to unilaterally demand Hong Kong to release Li Zhiying. In fact, there is a kind of KOL, there is a saying. Maybe you can hear it. The CCP may do this Release Li Zhiying This can save Hong Kong's economy And the economy of mainland China What do you think of this gap? What do you think? I think some people want to release him. I don't know if it's true. I don't know who you are talking about. Maybe some people want to release him. Spread such words to Beijing. But in fact, the effect is not very big. You are a place To be honest Arrest your own citizens as hostages Then tell the outside world I released my own hostages. Then what do you want to do? In fact, you can see that you have been arrested for so long. It's already in his hands. In fact, the West has nothing to be nervous about. In fact, there is nothing to be nervous about. You arrest your own citizens. What do you think the West can do? What big reaction will they have? They won't have a big reaction. In the same way, you say you release him now. For example, I am like this. What can you expect people to change? In fact, I don't see any big changes. The whole situation is not because you arrested someone. There is a big change in the room. That is, you are now the whole party. The gap in the world has been seen by everyone. It's all clear. You have to see clearly your gap. When you do things like this When you have such an international relationship with the world In fact, it's hard because you let one person go. What is the big change in arresting a person? I can't see where the gap is. The gap, in my understanding, is to release Li Zhiying. People say it's not good. As a transaction, I release Li Zhizhiying. What transaction? You arrested an American. You told the American that I am now releasing your hostages. You release my person, that's fine. Just like Israel and Hamas. You release the hostages like this. You can exchange. You are not now. You are now arresting your own people. What do you want to exchange? Li Zhiying is a British citizen. It's just that the British say the Chinese government doesn't recognize it. That's it. In fact, there is no such thing. Even now, you have arrested a lot of people from Israel. So what? Not Israel, but Hamas. Both sides have it. So what? Now the hostages are in their hands. You can't do anything in their hands. In fact, on the international stage, these people when you have value, when you don't have value. If you talk about Mr. Fei three years ago, he was a focus. But now he is not. When he is not a focus, it's hard to expect what the West will do to put him on the table. I think don't look at so many things. In the U.S., there are some lawmakers who start to issue the best notification. So you don't know Li Zhiying, or you judge Li Zhiying, I think it becomes a sanction on your judges. Is this trick effective? It's not very effective. To be honest, those who work with the government in Hong Kong have already been prepared. It won't be a big threat to them. They will come out and say a few more words, but in fact, it's useless. You do one thing, it's a posture. Of course, the one who returned to China is also a posture. Everyone has a posture. It may not work. Let's talk about Hong Kong's economy next year. I saw a recent survey. It said that 38 people who left Hong Kong wanted to leave Hong Kong. 20% of them left Hong Kong to go to other countries. 20% of them said they wanted to live in the mainland. In addition, 58% of them wanted to leave Hong Kong. If you look at Hong Kong's economic situation, political situation, or Li Zhiying's case, will people who emigrate next year go back to the way they were? Or what will happen? These kinds of investigations are sometimes a bit wasteful. It's boring to ask questions. Do you want to leave? Of course, many people want to leave. It's just that there's no action. A lot of people just want to leave. There's no action. If so many things have happened in the past few years, from 2019, to the beginning of the year, if you want to leave, then leave. If you don't want to leave, then stay. I believe it's meaningless to ask this question. Do you really want to leave? To be honest, if you want to leave in half a year, will you leave in a year? If you count this ratio, the investigation will be meaningful. If not, the investigation will be more expensive. In the past few years, you can see that there are a lot of windows on the outside. Britain, Canada, Australia, a lot of them have opened their doors. In fact, those who have left have already left. If you want to go to the US, it will take 3-4 years. It's such a long time. To be honest, if you want to go to the moon, it will take a long time. I don't think there are a lot of people who want to go. There are a lot of people who want to go to the mainland because the cost is cheap. If you have just retired, you might want to go. But it's a gradual process. The proportion of retirees is stable. I don't see a lot of people who want to go to the mainland. Why? I don't see such a motivation. So I think the proportion will not be very special. I suspect that the number of people who should leave next year will decrease. What do you think of the government's investment plan? I don't think it will help much. Because you open the door and say if you have so much money and billions of dollars you don't need to come to Hong Kong to get a ID card. It's easy to get an ID card in Hong Kong. You can even go to school now. Think about it. Some universities have enough channels to open the door and let people come. If you have more money you can buy an office or a shop. It's a good business opportunity. If it's about an office or a commercial building it's not good to open it outside. It's becoming popular outside. It's not the right time to invest and emigrate. Everyone is trying to be conservative and cautious. It's more like this. What will be the investment environment in Hong Kong next year? I see some developers in Hong Kong saying it's not a good time to invest. If you ask the developers of course. Many industries don't have a big problem but the stock market is falling. Of course, it has something to do with the mainland. The prices are falling in the mainland. Hong Kong will definitely go down. But in other areas for example, Hong Kong's stock price is still low and there are some employees who are still working. The situation is not as bad as it used to be. Overall. Of course, it depends on where you invest. If you are an investor you can continue your previous investment. It's not surprising. But if you are a new investor I don't think it's a good investment. In my opinion the new investors are more cautious about their investment. So I think in the future with the environment changing it's possible that Hong Kong will go down. Just like what you said in the last episode you can put some money in the bank to save some energy. This is the best way. No. Of course if you are conservative you can do that. But if you want to reduce the interest the interest rate is getting lower and lower. You will find that the interest rate is not as high as before. When the economy changes the interest rate will go down. Maybe not so fast. Maybe in 2024 there will be a chance. You have to wait. Investors don't have to work every day. If there is a chance, you can do it. I think the stock market will find a bottom soon. Of course US stocks haven't gone down yet. But Hong Kong stocks for example I think they have gone down for 4-5 years. So even if the stock price doesn't go up I don't think it will go down. If you invest a lot you will see if it will go up and go down. For foreign stocks there is still a chance. For example, if you see the market the risk will go up and things will go down. A professional investor can not only buy up but also buy down. Of course if you are not good at shorting don't do it. Wait for a chance for US stocks to go back 20% There is still a chance in 2024. But not so soon. For example some people are buying bonds. Of course you can wait for it to go up again. But not for shorting. For example, in 3-6 months or a part of a year if you are ready to adjust the price will go up there is still a chance. Now the share price is low you can buy it back. If you know how to do it you can do it yourself. It is OK. If the VIX is only 11-12 it is not a normal price range. It is really low. If the share price goes up you don't need to buy down. If it goes up or down, you can still win. There is something to do. The problem is you need to find it. Of course, if the economy goes down the market will go down. Of course, there will be less things you can do. There are not many choices. For example, if the oil price goes down to $70 it is worth buying. If the gold price goes up to $2,100 it is expensive. It should go down. If you are in the market it is not hard to find. There are a lot of opportunities. Will the inflation in the UK go down? In fact, not only in the UK the inflation has gone down. In the US the inflation was around 10. Now it is only 34. It has gone down. But it is not very low. In the UK, it is around 4. It is similar to the US. Don't count Hong Kong and Mainland China. They are different. In general, the inflation is similar to the US. It is around 4. If it is higher, it is around 5 or 6. But generally, if it stops here, it will not go down. If you ask if it is out of control, it is not out of control. But if you ask if it is under control, it is not under control. So the situation is a bit awkward. The economy is not out of control. Even the data from the US is better. When it is better, there is a pressure to rise again. The situation is similar to 2023. If you look at 2023, a lot of things are going up and down. If you look at it lightly, a lot of things are not going down a lot. If you look at it low, it is going up. Even the stock market is the same. If you look at it low, it is around 14,500. If you look at it high, it is around 20,000. If you look at it low, it is around 16,000. In fact, it is going up and down. Everything is not going in the right direction. I think when the economy has a direction, things will be clearer. I suspect there will be a chance next year. Will Japan continue to push the welfare policy? In fact, it wants to shrink. But now the external environment is not good. It wants to shrink. In fact, it has been longing to end the welfare by the end of the year. In the end, it didn't happen. If it doesn't happen, the next wave in the market will be in March or April. Japan should not expect it to make a big move. It may be a dead end. Even if it does well or not, negative 0.1 or negative 0.1, the difference is not too big. On the contrary, the global external export, the overall development is more critical to it. For example, the US dollar has been declining from 100 to 150. But now the US has a chance to shrink. The US dollar has fallen. Japan has increased by 10, from 150 to 140. If it really shrinks, there is still room for strengthening. But Japan's strengthening is not a good situation. Let me tell you, the global risk may be the risk of bankruptcy. Every time you see a fall in the market, Japan has a chance to strengthen. After a few months, the stock market will be in trouble. This is a signal. The yen suddenly shrinks so much. It is a golden opportunity to tell you what will happen in the future. Yes, the stock market will affect Hong Kong's stock market. But now I want to ask about the US. Last time, you said it might shrink. But you said not to be so excited. Now I see that the US Federal Reserve also has some news. They are opposed to the price-to-stock ratio last time. If the price-to-stock ratio is not so good, for Hong Kong, will the economy be a red market next year? When will we see hope? Actually, you don't have to pay too much attention to whether it will shrink or not. He just said that. He changed his mind two weeks ago. In the past two or three years, the Federal Reserve has been in a bad shape. Sometimes I don't know what to say. After talking about it, I can't help it. On the contrary, it is more important whether the whole stock market will shrink or not. Now the stock market is in a bad situation. It is not very likely that the economy will really shrink. But in fact, if you look at the knowledge curve, look at the leading indicators, it really tells you that the stock market is not good. If you look at the macro, even if it is not a deep decline, but a gentle decline, or the so-called long-term green, you may have predicted something from the top. For example, the U.S. stock market, not only the U.S. stock market, but also the European stock market, such as Germany, India, are all breaking through the top. When you break through the top, you have to drop from the top to drop by 20%, or even more. In fact, this is not difficult. It doesn't take a long time to achieve this. A standard adjustment market will drop by ten or so. Ten or eight is a small number. Ten or so is a limit. You have to be prepared for such a rebound. If the rebound comes, you can handle it. Your window is not too heavy. You can make it in time. That's OK. Join Honorary Members and guard Hong Kong with us. Guard the right of 1.4 billion Chinese to get real information.