Miami Heat: 5 Concerns as Schedule Eases | Five on the Floor

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A lot of my content is on the YouTube channel, so make sure you subscribe there. You're going to miss stuff if you just subscribe to the podcast feeds. And it's on Off the Floor. And Off the Floor, exactly. Yeah, I've been there a lot, actually. I was there all last night. So, here's the thing. As I used to say on 790 Ticket way back in the day when that existed. I listened to it every day. Thank you very much. I'm not sure I listen back to any day. The Heat are fine. That's my overall assessment of being on the last leg of this trip, which was really two trips in one. It was nine out of ten on the road. The Heat finished it at seven and three. They were really speaking more last night about going six and three on the road part of this. Their net rating is now a positive. We'll get into that going forward. It's not a huge positive. It's a plus two, but at least it's not below the flatline anymore. And they're going to start getting some bodies back. And that's really the key thing here. To play a game without Bam, Jimmy, Duncan, and Tyler, those are your four leading scorers. And you don't have them against the nets. We'll get into the circumstances of all those situations as we go forward. But there are some concerns. Like I'm saying, overall, they're fine. I think they're pretty well positioned. I had a long conversation with Kevin Love last night, who has become the Udonis Haslam of this team in terms of perspective. And his thing is he's been telling the players, look, not everybody's got their sea legs under them right now, to use his term. We've had a lot of players in and out, but we showed some resolve early. We know the schedule is going to set up for us in a better way going forward. I said to him in all of his years, now this is a guy who was drafted in 2008, has he ever had an opening schedule like this? And he said, no. And that's just, look, 12 out of 17 on the road to start. That's a lot. Okay. And this wasn't because there was a circus at the arena. The NBA just scheduled this and they had to deal with it and they had to deal with it while they had guys going in and out. And to start one and four and now to be 10 and seven. And then also to look at it and to say, okay, you can point to specific reasons they lost all of these games. The Chicago game, the previous Nets game, the Knicks game, at least two of those three should be wins. Okay. They outplayed those teams. So the majority of those games. And then last night, as we record this on Sunday, if I mean, I believe if, if more of their guys had played, they probably wouldn't that game either. The Nets are not great. And I think they, but this was a scheduled loss to large degree. And they knew it when the schedule came out. And then when Jimmy tweaked the ankle, Bam's hip was bothering him. Duncan's still dealing with the hand thing. They were like, okay, let's just play the other guys and see what happens. And it didn't go particularly well. So Greg, my overall point on this is I think they're fine. They think they're fine. They were very positive in the locker room yesterday. And our sponsor, that was his message to the team. I asked him about it, you know, the overall thing. And he's like, you know, look you know, when we, we, we started this thing, you know, we were kind of like, how are we going to handle this? We would like to have a couple more wins here. It didn't finish the way that we wanted, but I think overall he's fairly optimistic, but let's go through five things that could be concerns. Okay. So I'm going to start here with wipe out the Nets game. Cause they, they didn't have their guys. The fourth quarter stuff is, is a legit problem. And it's a problem. Not so much because of the offense, because I think we knew that there would be struggles in the offense, particularly you don't have Tyler mixing other guys in, but the fourth quarter defense has not been there. And that's what I asked Bolster about prior to the game going into last night, they were 25th in the league and defensive efficiency in the, in the fourth quarter, they made their hay last year winning clutch games because they defended and they made their free throws. That's why they won the majority of those games. They are not defending at that level, even though they have more good defenders. Now, to me, that's the number one thing they got to figure out because if they don't, if they keep blowing these games, the way that they did against the Knicks and, and some of it is, is, is a symbiotic here in a negative way, I guess when that's why Spell wanted them to push pace against the Knicks and he was screaming for them to run. And Jimmy and Kyle just weren't running, honestly, to start that part of it was Jimmy was dealing with the ankle, but when they're, when they're not pushing the pace on that end, it seems to be bleeding into their defense when, when they're, you know, they're missing shots, they're getting it. So it used to be the other way, the deep in both ways, it's going both directions here, but they have to be better defensively in the fourth quarter. They've got to clean that up soon. That's not something you can let linger deep into the season. No. And I'm glad you're actually stealing my take here, but that's okay. Before I got the chance to, to spew it. And that's all right, because it just fortifies it even more. This is a classic scenario specifically against Chicago and New York, those two games in particular. And I, and by the way, just to close the loop on, on your open, they are totally fine. Like, and this, if this road trips have told me nothing else, they're way better than all of these, like middling teams, like even New York, who's right up in the mix, they're better than New York. If they see him in a playoff series, that's food and Chicago is going to be blown up. So with that being said, this is a hundred percent. The offense is leading to bad defense. You're seeing bad shots. You're seeing stagnant offense. And to me, I think that it bleeds over to the defense. They stopped doing what they've been doing for three quarters, which is very weird that they just kind of abandon what has been working. And it is like a scenario where it's leading directly to bad defense. They are just the attention to detail stuff. It kind of goes out the window late. And I think it has to also do with them trying to gather themselves on offense. And it just takes the focus off of the defensive end. So it is something that needs to be fixed, but I also, there's a part of me that feels like, even though it's been happening all year, I trust the coaching staff. I trust the players at the very top of this roster to eventually get that smoothed out to a degree because they've always been a defensive first organization. And I feel like you can fix fourth quarter defense before you fix fourth quarter offense. And at some point, even though I'm telling you that the offense is leading to the defense, the defense will eventually out, like it'll out, it'll transcend their offensive woes. I just have to believe that being a dude who's watched the heat as long as I have that that's where I stand, I guess. A lot of these five things are interconnected. So when I go to number two here that this plays in with it, I think this is a primary concern for heat fans. And again, there's no way to guarantee that this changes. They just need to be healthy. I mean, that's a huge part of this. And I know this is, this has been a consistent theme now for the past few years that they don't seem to have, you know, enough of their bodies from game to game. And it's crazy to me when I think back to sort of the Riley coach teams that I covered early on, where he would grind them to death with four hour practices and there were more back to backs than there are now. And yet I would look at the numbers and even like gimpy Tim Hardaway would play 77 games and you know, they were there every night. They were there every night. And I think this is some of this is a league thing. And I know that the league is legislating against some of this. And that's part of why you had the heat kind of go all in on that next game, which was the national TV game. There were certain rules that you have to play certain guys in certain games. But I just think that that is a primary concern for heat fans that I can't make them feel better about. We'll make that number two. I can't guarantee who's going to be in and who's going to be out. Sometimes it's it's a small thing. Like I talked to Duncan about the hand and he he was pushing to play, he said, in the next game. But then they sort of decided, OK, better to take another day off. And then they got to the next game the next night. There's no reason to push it for that. So let's just wait till he gets home. Obviously, they're going to be relatively careful, very careful with Tyler. If they can be, you don't want him to retweak the ankle and have that be a lingering problem. We'll see when he comes back. Bam, with a hip, did look quite the same in the fourth quarter against the Knicks. I'm going to do another BAM topic here in a second. They sent him out against the Nets, but they thought maybe he might play. He was kind of pushing to play. And when I asked Fulcher why Orlando Robinson wasn't with the team yesterday, because he may have been able to help them, he said, well, we thought Bam might play. And also Orlando Sioux Falls wasn't playing close to where they were in New York. So it made it a shuffling of players in and out. It's one thing to talk about depth and it's a good thing to have it, but it's another thing when you can't get continuity. And, and I, I, in every conversation I had with heat players over the past couple of days, they referred to that. They all talked about, you know, we've had this guy in and we've had this guy out. We haven't been able to really see it. I mean, even a guy like I talked to Josh, who seems to be at least defensively. And I think offensively, he's not shooting the ball particularly well, but he, he looks more comfortable. But, but, but I said to him, like I said, do you know, you don't know who you're playing with for minutes, a minute game to game. That's kind of where they're at. And I think the reason I'm bringing this up is number two is because it feeds into number one. They don't have the same groups out there in the fourth quarter all the time. And, and again, because of that, you don't like, okay. I suppose it doesn't typically settle on a closing lineup, like in, you know, before the game 20, obviously it's usually later in the season, but you want to see a trending that direction. And it's just difficult when you have this guy in this guy out, this guy in the one consistent that the one, the one guy you can count on every night to be out there for 30 minutes lately is the rookie Jaime Hawkins. He's been out there for every game and he plays the fourth quarter of every game and they put the ball in his hands every game. And he's playing more than 30 minutes every game. And, and to say that, that that's not, it's probably a good long-term development for this team for sure. And it may even pay off later this season, but it's not, it's not conducive to continuity when you've got a rookie who as advanced as he is, as poised as he is, hasn't been in these situations all the time. There's going to be mistakes, particularly as he's playing with different players. So again, I can't, this is the one Greg, I can't reassure anybody about this. I can't say they're going to be healthy. They're going to hold guys out because of their depth and let other guys play. But I do think there is a balance here where at some point this season of your top 11, you got to have nine or 10 out there consistently to be able to really build something. Yeah. At least for a couple months for, for a good stretch. Like this is where I come down on this and I'm glad that you are mentioning all the injuries and Brady Hawk mentioned this on our last night, the post game show. Everyone check that out too. It's up on the podcast feed. We're throwing these up so fast and furious, but you should definitely check out all of our post game shows. They're never going to be a hundred percent healthy. So like this, this, the sound bite that travels, whether it's within the fan base, within the organization of, well, we weren't whole, we need to see everyone. They're never going to see everyone. So like that whole thing, they need to mentally get past that. And I don't know what that means for the team overall, but I would imagine that most organizations likely have to emotionally and mentally prep themselves for that reality. So I just think it's great that they have depth. They need continuity amongst, I would say that there's probably a handful like eight or nine that they really need to spend some good quality time together. I'd love for it to be an expanded list of 10 or 11 that are always available, but you're right. I think it's like a core group that they need to see how they play together, how they compliment one another. And you need to see them all out there, but also they need to, you know, grapple with the fact that they're not going to ever be fully healthy and they're going to have guys in and out and they're going to be managing minutes. And that's something that they're going to have to just push through. Other teams are going to have to push through it too. Maybe not to the extent that Miami does because Miami led the league and lost minutes, I think last year due to injury. I don't think that they're trending quite to that level. And shout out to Josh Richardson, who you mentioned, he's averaging 12 and a half points the last four games. I, you can't guarantee this, but at least at some point you want to see them. Let's say he does 25 games sound like enough to you or they need more than that. Yeah. I mean, I think when you look back at this again, I mentioned that, you know, it's a pot thing and then, you know, it seems to have changed a little underspoke, but we look at big and different team here, but he looked at the 27 game winning streak in 12, 13 sport rolled out the same nine, every game, but two, yeah. Every game, every game, but two on those two games, he had Mike Miller fill in for Dwayne Wade. Like, I mean, so, and that was it. And so I do think that this is a last few years trend where, you know, again, if something is kind of minor and the player is pushing to play, he doesn't play. And, and I, I understand why I get it. You're trying to get through a very long season. We know that for the heat, the tournament is what matters, not the in season tournament, the real one. Okay. The one that starts sometime in the middle of April. And so I get it. You get to the finish line as healthy as you can. And they tried to build their depth this off season so that they could get to that line and get Jimmy over the line. But I do think, and we'll get to this in the second part of the episode, there is a little bit more competition in the East, I think right now. And I think we need to acknowledge that. And you don't want to be in a situation where you're scrambling to get out of the play in, in the last couple of weeks of the regular season, that is not ideal. So we'll touch on that and more as we go forward. I got three more topics. I did not prep Greg's Greg on these, and a lot of them are interrelated, but these are just observations, you know, after spending a couple of days with the team. All right. I want to mention a great sponsor, the five reason sports network, our friends over at water cleanup. If you got water damage, you got mold damage. This is the place that you want to reach out to wcufl.com. That's wcufl.com. They do everything from preventative to leak detection, to damage assessment, Michael Robert and his team. They do a great job. If they can't do the job, they will let you know as well. They got more than 70, uh, five-star reviews on Google 5, 6, 1, 4 0 8, 78, 35. That's 5, 6, 1, 4 0 8, 78, 35. It's water cleanup of Florida. If you've got the schmutz, they got the guts. All right. So let's go through these here. And, and I, I think that again, some of these are, are tied in together. Um, but we were starting to see teams play them differently. And the biggest takeaway to me, and I know you guys covered this on post can show their back was the doubling of BAM. And, and this is a concern because not because they can't overcome this, but because they need to figure out how to counter it. Um, because it's not something we've seen a ton of the past few years. And it just, again, I'm more of an eye test guy. Okay. And then I'll try to look at the numbers afterwards to see if it connects with what I saw. And I was, I was sitting at the garden and I was like, Oh my God. I mean, the doubling BAM on every possession, like I that's new. Okay. It warms my heart. Well, right. I mean, it shows he's arrived. Right. And I talked to Kevin Love about it yesterday before the game. And he was saying if BAM has to adjust that. And I said, when did it start happening to you? And again, Dan, you know, Kevin Love was a top five pick. Okay. And was playing on a bad team. And he was the featured guy and all the rest of He said his third season, he said that it started to happen a lot. He had to learn how to play out. And he said, the thing is a little different from this is that the doubling is coming the least way the Knicks ran it was coming from the baseline. And, and it was, it was cramping BAM a little bit. And I think that combined with the heat, not playing with any pace. So they weren't getting into their offense. Um, and then, you know, Jimmy dealing with the ankle. And so they weren't as many ways to counter there. And also BAM dealing with the hip, like it all sort of came together and that collapse, uh, against the Knicks, but teams are going to do more of this. Like what we have seen it like that. It's just like when they would put size on Jimmy and Jimmy had to learn how to counter that. This is the next level of BAM's progression. Like he has officially arrived and they cannot forget him or allow him to forget himself because of the way he's being played. Yeah. They can't get it because some of this, you know, we talked about it last year, first two thirds of the season before the all-star break, the new aggressive BAM, 16 shots, shot attempts per game. And then after the all-star break, it seemed like he was fatigued or the team turned more over to Jimmy or what. And he averaged only 13 and a half attempts per game after the all-star break. And then it was like during the playoffs, he kind of got back into the middle of that. This needs to be sustained this season. So if, if they're, when they're and that requires, and this is what Kevin said, they cannot get stagnant around him. That was the biggest thing that Kevin said. He said, we get stagnant around him. When those doubles come, then he's put in an uncomfortable position. Doesn't really know where to go with it. And then yes, they are going to get away from him. So they, they, they need to move. And I really think that what hurt in that game, that won't be a factor, maybe as much going forward is no Duncan. I think having Duncan out there with him will a lot, will give him counters that he didn't have that night. How concerned are you overall about just how they attack this? Cause it's, it's, it's a new strategy we're seeing. Spolster is going to get in the lab and they're going to be fine. I'll be quick here. This is a situation, you know, we also watched Alonzo morning, how to learn, how to pass out of double teams and BAM out of bio is an infinitely better passer than Alonzo morning was and reads the floor in a much different way. So I, I trust BAM to figure that out. It has a hundred percent has to do with movement. I actually think Tyler hero can help in this regard to, to some degrees, just to release valve that they can't forget about. So I expect them to figure this out, but it's the maturation process of BAM out of bio becoming a legitimate offensive player that teams are scouting for. Do you hear that folks? He's not just a defensive stalwart. No, that's true. I mean, I, this is what happens and that's good. So, but again, that there's something that came off the trip that you start to see teams throw things at, you know, at you in game 20 and as Kevin said yesterday, we'd rather have it now. Like a lot of this stuff we'd rather have now. And let's get to number four here because this is, this is one that, that they're having now that is, is starting to concern me a little bit. And you mentioned them getting their, their core group together. To me, their, their core group right now really is, is Jimmy BAM, Tyler Duncan, honestly, in the way that they're trying to play. And so then I look at all the wings that they have beyond that. Martin, Hawkins, Richardson, Highsmith, like you need a couple of them playing well around. Okay. Like that's, I think that's the way that this team is constructed. Duncan is a core piece. Now there's a, he's doing so much for them on the offensive end. He's not hurting you defensively. And you really saw what it was like to miss him over the past couple of games. And, and here's the thing about those guys. I thought that most important thing that happened in the next game was Caleb Martin got reps. He got reps all over the place and you can see him getting more comfortable as the game comes, went on and Spolsher talked about the quick twitch coming back and you can see it. Okay. And Caleb talked after the game about how he's, he's starting, you know, I asked him about trusting his body more. And it appears that he's starting to, he says he's been a little bit hesitant. The numbers are not good on him through the first seven games. I think you throw them out. He's talked about this being an extended preseason, but this is a concern. And not just because Heywood Heisman, you know, fell on his tailbone yesterday and everybody in the locker room was making fun of him breaking his ass as they were saying, but Lisa joking, but they were, they were joking. He was, I mean, he turned out, he was very uncomfortable at the plane ride probably was not a whole lot of fun, but here's the thing about their, their wings. They've got to make open threes. They have to. And that, that is a concern for me right now because high Smith is, has not been what we saw in the preseason. And the first couple of games, the regular season is a 34% right now. We have one game in there that was positive that scooted back up, but you were getting to the point or I was at least where when Heywood was getting that open three, I was like, okay, good. Now I'm like, Ooh, don't shoot that. And it looks like he's starting to get less comfortable that he likes that shot from kind of the left wing towards the top. That's sort of his shot. It's not the corner shot, which is typically the easier shot. He tends to get the ball up high and it doesn't look good lately. Hot guys looks more comfortable from the corner than Heywood does at the moment. He's worked on that shot a lot and Caleb again, he's Swiss army knife. They're kind of using him all over the place, but I'm not really sure where the comfortable three point spot is. And Josh looks better to me when he takes a dribble and gets to the middie, those four guys, like they've got to, they got to get two of them shooting the three, three ball pretty well, because those shots teams are going to leave, particularly if the doubles are going to be coming on bam and on Jimmy. And again, we'll see when Tyler comes back and some of this changes and that obviously will help their three point shooting Kyle shooting. The more would be helpful. We've discussed that ad nauseum. So I don't want to get into that more. But they, those four guys that they got to be in that 33 to 36% range and you got to feel good about them. Take two quick points here. One, uh, they went in two games from being fourth in the league at 39% in three point shooting down to 37.8. That doesn't sound like a big drop, but let me just tell you in a couple games, that's a big drop. They can't have the games where they can't hit the broad side of the barn collectively. Uh, still though, them being fifth in the league in three point shooting percentage is positive. And this is what I'll say to close the loop on all of the wings that you reference and they do have to shoot. Well, I would go as far as to say, when you talk about the core players that you mentioned, Duncan, Tyler, bam, Jimmy, one of those wings that you're talking about must move from category of bucket of wings to that core player bucket that they can count on before the playoffs start. Well, it feels to me right now, like time. Yup. But initially we thought it could be Haywood and sometimes it's Caleb. And so like, they got to figure that part out and how, how long can they go? How can Jaime continue to take on more, get through the long regular season, not hit a wall and still be in this place come the playoffs. But you're right. It has looked like him right now. I think to me, if you say upside of the four guys, okay. Jaime long-term has the greatest upside. I still think Caleb has the highest upside for this season. If he can just get feeling comfortable again. And some of it is, I thought it was good that he got the reps with Jaime yesterday, like those four wings, like when they play together and how they play together. Haywood is more of sort of, I maybe take him out of that category a little bit because the things he's being asked to do are a little different as sort of bam sidekick in the front court a little more, even though he, you know, he will do some of the things that the others do, but he's not going to be handling as much as Jaime is or Caleb is, or even Josh is right. But getting those four guys together and seeing how Spolstra uses them when they have hero and Robinson out there as well and integrating all of that. But like Brady said, and he's right, they'll never be totally whole. So it's probably not a thing to worry about. So you're just sort of saying, okay, which two, three wings are they using together tonight? And are they making open threes? All right. Last we had for a fifth one, I actually had two more. I'll do this one quick. Cause we're not going to spend a lot of time in this. We may do another episode, but one is I do think there are more threats in the East right now. I think Orlando's honestly, like, I don't think they're a legitimate title contender, but they were a legitimate playoff seed contender. Like they've got a lot of young guys who are growing up at the same time. They seem to be well-coached they've got a high upside. Yeah. And defense exactly. It started with defense and they got high upside, high character, young guys. Some of these other teams that have taken longer to build, you don't see that, but they seem to have drafted a particular type of person and player there. And they're going to be pretty decent. Yeah. Smart. And, and, you know, Wagner like there there's talent there and Cole Anthony too. Like they they're starting to put some things together there. Indiana. I don't know if I trust, cause they don't play any defense. And Toronto is still, they're hanging around 500, which is exactly what we said, because I can't pick a direction. So until they make a direction, they're going to be hanging around 500. But I do think that there's more competitive teams in the East and we're seeing it based on the records and based on some of the results. The fifth thing though, I do want to hit tonight though. Cause it hit me last night. The Kyle Lowry minutes are, are, are concerning to me still 29.3. So he's now he's now fifth on the team. Okay. So it's settling back a little bit. They got to find the secondary ball handling, especially now that he can't even go to Drew Smith if he wants to. And we'll see what happens you know, does RJ Hampton's not ready at this point, even if he was healthy, he's not ready. So we talk about those wings, like they got to find enough secondary ball handling that he can get Kyle's minutes down to 25 a game, because if he's not going to be traded, he's going to be needed. That's, that's the way I look at this, right? Either you're trading him to get an upgrade at the position. And if you're not trading him and just going to let the contract run out then you need what he provides at times at the very least, particularly if he's shooting. And so at 29 is still 29 to 30 minutes is still too high for me. He should be at his age. And part of this is because guys are in and out. Okay. Like I think he was going to play last night. Like when I looked at the schedule, I'm like, okay, Kyle, Kyle's going to sit and play a lot of minutes against the Knicks. Like before the Nick game, I said, he's not going to play against the nets, but then Bam's not available. Jimmy's not available. Tyler's not available. We knew that Duncan's not available. And all of a sudden it's, we're going to play Kevin and Kyle a lot of minutes. And that's not really where they want to be going. So they got to figure out a way to get the minute countdown. They do. And I'm just going to be quick with it. Shout out to Kyle Lowry for playing his ass off recently. Cause he really has. And he is also you know, he's being more aggressive in moments, but not quite aggressive enough. I'll just say this, just cut the y'all. They need more production from his minute count, from his percent to salary cap allocated. And I hate to bring it to counting stats. People are going to roll their eyes and say, go look at the advanced metrics, the on off numbers. Um, it's just not enough. Like, just stop it. Like, like look at every, like, let's use counting stats for the simpletons in the back. Go to every heat playoff team ever. That's had any range of success and find me a point guard. That's doing what Kyle's doing on a day-to-day basis with this many minutes. You won't. And so that's where something I feel like they just, that's going to come to a head and don't ruin my day by talking about letting a contract expire. Ethan, please, please, please. My apologies. Well, I won't ruin your day by making you, uh, watch some of the highlights from that Nets game, um, Thomas Bryant. I don't know that that's sustainable, uh, at that position. And yeah, I do believe if Orlando Robinson had been available, probably would have gotten the bulk of those minutes. Uh, yesterday we'll have conversations about Jovich and others another day. Cause I know that's a topic people want to get into. So we might, we might hit that. I did get a chance to talk to, uh, to Nico yesterday about where they have him right now. And I think it's a really interesting conversation about weighing the now versus the future with him and where he fits. So we will do an episode on that, uh, here at some point as well. All right. For Greg, also for our sponsors, a water cleanup in Florida, better edge. Everybody have a great afternoon. I'll be back in town. We've got, uh, we'll have full episode on Monday. Dame comes to town on Tuesday. So, uh, that's Dame gets, uh, the blazers and then the heat back to back actually. So, uh, oh my God, we're going to do another episode about Dave. Have a good day, everybody. Thank you for listening to the five on the floor on the fibers and sports network. After all someone needs to listen to my dad.