Should Arsenal target Ivan Toney or Pedro Neto?

If we were to get to the January transfer window and Arsenal were to have the option of pursuing either Brentford's Ivan Toni or Wolves' Pedro Neto, who should they go for? Let's get into it. It's a fun hypothetical. It's a question I was asked on the Ask Cast Extra yesterday, so do give that a listen. Who should Arsenal go for out of those two? We are in the realm of speculation at this particular point in time. It's still a long way out from January. But I thought fascinating to compare them because they offer such different things to this club and to this project. Before we get into the individual players, we should talk about the context, which is that I think Arsenal spending money in January is going to need something to shift. Now, when I talk about that, look at the last signing Arsenal did in the summer window. It was David Rye on loan, crucially, from Brentford, on loan with an obligation. Everyone expects that that deal will be made permanent, but Arsenal couldn't make it permanent in the last transfer window. Why? Because of financial fair play considerations, because of budgetary issues, because they didn't bring in as much money in terms of selling players and achieving revenue that way as they had anticipated or hoped. So that's one of the things that could change, that could enable them to spend money in January. They could sell somebody. There are a number of players in the first team squad who already their game time is being fairly limited and you'd think they could go. Of course, weakening a squad halfway through a season is always a risk. It's always something Mikel Arteta will be loathe to do. If you let a player leave the club, what if someone else acquires an injury? Is it a mistake that could come back to haunt you? The other possibility, of course, is that Arsenal just go for it, that they front up. If they're maybe thinking, well, we're in a real chance of winning some silverware this season, could they find a way to balance the books? Could the owners front them alone? Could they say, look, we're going to recoup that in the summer and not spend in the summer, effectively bring forward a signing to January? I don't have the access to the accounts to make that determination as to whether that's something they could do, but as I say, it would require something to change. I think Arsenal going out to buy a player in January, I think some people take that as a given just because it's a new transfer window. I don't think from an economic perspective, it is a given whatsoever. Let's talk about price then because that will be key. The number I'm seeing associated with both players is around the £60 million mark. That's the reporting that I'm reading. I have to say that sounds about right for Ivan Toni. I'll tell you why. He's got a contract situation there at Brentford where his deal is going to be up in 12 months' time. I think Brentford ideally would like to charge more than that for a proven Premier League goal scorer in Ivan Toni. I think they'd be looking at the £80 million mark or even above. To be honest, I think the contract situation makes that unrealistic. I think the amount of time he spent out of the game due to his ban makes him a little bit of a gamble potentially for someone in January. I think Brentford's bargaining position was slightly weakened by the fact that they did the David Rye deal. They were insistent this player isn't going anywhere until someone meets our £40 million asking price. In the end, they agreed to a loan. Now, it's a loan that will get them £30 million, which will reflect on that as a decent outcome, but it did show that they're not quite as intransigent in their negotiations, in their dealings, as perhaps some of us had anticipated. So, I think £60 million, yeah, that sounds about right for Toni. For Pedro Neto, I think that that one could increase. He is absolutely flying at the moment. Bear in mind, he's a younger player. He's under long-term contract, signed a new deal in March of 2022. He's under contract until 2027. And as I say, he's tearing up the Premier League, you know, scoring and being involved with crucial goals against the likes of Man City. I think £60 million in the current market would feel quite cheap. If he keeps playing as he does, currently, I think by January or certainly by next summer, you could be talking about more than that, you know, in the same way that a Mikhailo Mudrik's fee shot up. If there's competition for this player's signature, that would also see the price rise. So, I think Toni, as time goes on, his price is only going down. As Neto proves that he's over these injuries and proves what he can contribute regularly in the Premier League, I think his price is only going to increase. So, that's going to be an interesting element there. And something else to consider is going to be the league position of both clubs. You know, at the moment, they're both squarely in the bottom half of the table. Wolves were tipped by a lot of people to really struggle this year. I think they've done better than many people anticipated. But who knows, by January, they might be very much in a dogfight or they might not. And similarly, Brentford might find themselves dragged into a relegation battle or they could have put together some results and be sitting comfortably in the top half. I think that will have a big role in determining how willing they are to part with these players mid-season. You know, getting relegated from Premier League would be huge for either of these clubs. The financial ramifications would be massive. If they are in with a real chance of going down, I think they'll fight tooth and nail to keep these players, or they'll ensure they bring enough in that they can bring in a couple of players, a couple of signings of their own to strengthen their bid to stay up. So, that's another element that could affect the price heading into January. Let's talk about their age. I mentioned that Pedro Neto is younger, 24. He'll turn in March. That brings him much more in line with the Arsenal project. Ivan Toni is the older player, 27 right now. He'll turn 28 in March. Pedro Neto, if you look at the summer signings, Arsenal Major in Timber, Kai Havertz, Declan Rice, they were all around that 24 mark. They're players entering their prime and Pedro Neto is at that exact point in his trajectory. So, from that perspective, he really fits with what Arteta and Edu have tried to do in terms of squad building. Of course, bringing in as many young players as they have, part of the benefit of that is it enables you to go out and add a more senior player should you wish, and that can have real value. Look at Jorginho, who, you know, a more experienced player in Jorginho, someone who's very settled, who knows the league, who is comfortable playing in big games. That's maybe a difference, right? You sign Jorginho, you're getting someone who's won Champions League, European Championships. Ivan Toni, he's 28, but he doesn't necessarily come with that pedigree. And I don't say that with any disrespect, but a lot of his goal scoring has been done outside the Premier League. He's inexperienced at that top level of the game. So, whereas when you go and play by a player like Jorginho, who granted is substantially older than Toni, you're buying all that big game experience, you're buying that big club mentality. It's kind of, you know what you're going to get. With Toni, I think there is still that question of how he would perform on that stage, whether he would thrive in the spotlight or not, whether he could adapt to life at a top six club or not. That would be an unknown and does make him more of a gamble. What I would say is in his favour is that these types of strikers, these target men, I think do tend to peak later. Scary thought when you consider Erling Haaland, but think about your Didier Drogba's of the world. Think about your Olivier Giroud's. I think they really hit their prime around the age of 30 and arguably Giroud hit it later than that. Even if you think about a Cristiano Ronaldo, he started playing in that number nine role when he was substantially older and he thrived in it. You know, I think you can do that role at an older age if you're a good athlete and I think Ivan Toni is a really, really good athlete. From a tactical perspective, Toni, it's obvious what he gives you. It's a different option at centre forward and regular viewers of the channel will know that's something I've been calling for. That's something I would like. He's a different style. He gives us the ability to go long, for example. I thought it was really interesting David Rye gave a great interview with The Athletic where he was talking about how Arsenal changed up their playing out from the back against Man City. You know, they were playing short at the Emirates in the first half and they had some struggles. Second half, they went longer and they had some success with that and indeed, Man City have had great success with that themselves, looking for Haaland with Ederson playing out with longer passes. I think in Rye and Ramsdale, Arsenal have two goalkeepers. Who could do that? And I think as much as Gabriel Jesus is impressive the way he holds off defenders, the way he wins those duels, Ivan Toni is another level. When you look at his aerial ability, second to none really in the Premier League for a centre forward. So he adds a different dimension. He is a goal threat. I think maybe unlike Jesus, he is a goal scorer naturally. He is a poacher. He is someone who thrives in that 18-yard box. He's a penalty box monster really. He would give Arsenal an amazing alternative. They do arguably have an alternative on the books in Kai Havertz who is six foot plus, very good in the air. It's not his favourite thing to do but he can absolutely play there. You can't compare him to Toni though in the duels, in the aggression that he shows, the relish for those battles. And I think Toni is a better finisher and a more proven goal scorer frankly at Premier League level. Let's come on to Neto. Neto is a very different type of player. A wide forward, a flyer. Someone who can play either side, can use both feet. He is relatively two-footed. I think Arteta would like that about him. He likes that about Leandro Trossard. He can go inside, he can go outside. He's quick. He doesn't show any sign of being slowed down by two major injuries he's had at this early point in his career. That would be a concern. I think that he, crucially, would give Arsenal an alternative to Pakaio Saka. When you think about the number nine position, I think Arteta does have real faith in Eddie Nketiah. He starts him in big games. Does he have faith in Reece Nelson, for example, to the same degree on that right-hand side? I don't think so. I think the fact that he doesn't select him in those big matches is telling enough. So I think that that would be his biggest value. He also would provide a good option on the left. He's more Martinelli-esque than Trossard, I'd say. He's someone who can hold the width, get to the byline, put crosses in. It would be quite nice to have both, frankly. I and Tony would absolutely relish some of the crosses that Pedro Neto swings in from either side, the delivery he's got. But you have to think that the likes of Jesus, Martinelli and Nketiah, Havertz, could all profit from it. You might see where I'm going with this. My choice would be Pedro Neto. I also think you've got the fact that he's playing regularly. Ivan Tony is not at this point in time. You don't know how long it's going to take him to get up to speed, to get up to full match sharpness. I'd go Neto. And I'll keep it simple as to why. I think Ivan Tony gives you a plan B, a true plan B. But I think Pedro Neto allows you to preserve your plan A. And I almost think that's more important. I think Arsenal are in a position where if they lose Bukayo Saka, potentially even if they lose Gabriel Martinelli for an extended period, I think they could really suffer. And I think having Neto enables them to keep that tactical model that is the fundamental, the foundation of everything Arteta is doing at Arsenal intact. And I think you can't underestimate how important that could be. Tony arguably allows you to do it a different way by using Gabriel Jesus as a wide man. But I don't think that is Arteta's plan A. I think he brought Gabriel Jesus to play through the middle. I think that his pressing, his combination play is what Arteta wants. So we do need a viable Saka alternative. And I think Neto is as good as I can see on the current market. So that would be my choice. But let me know what you think in the comments below. I'd be fascinated to hear from you. Do subscribe if you haven't already for more videos like this. It's very much appreciated. And I'll catch you all soon. Take care, guys. Bye-bye.