ExclusiveGordon Chang: China Is Behind Russia

Hi, welcome to Focus Talk. As Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, China's role in this caught the world's attention. When I was at Florida CPAC last week, I interviewed Gordon Chang, Asian affairs expert and author of The Coming Collapse of China. Gordon Chang believes that the CCP is financing Russia in its move toward Ukraine. Here's my interview. Hi, Gordon. It's great to have you with us today and so great to see you at CPAC. I am so grateful to be here. So thank you, Jenny. Thank you, Gordon. Okay, so let's start with this whole situation with Russia and Ukraine. I'm sure you've been asked the question a million times these days, but a lot of people are still shocked to see what happened. Why do we see what we are seeing today? Obviously, deterrence has broken down. I think largely because Vladimir Putin has looked at the United States and felt that President Biden was not going to exercise American power against him. The United States is so much more powerful than Russia. Our economy is something like 18, 19 times bigger. Of course, Putin has a friend, China. The United States has got much more of an China does. We're even more powerful than Russia and China together. But it's not an issue of the size of the economy or the size of military or anything else. It really is an issue of political will. And Vladimir Putin has assessed that Biden doesn't have the political will to exercise American power to protect Ukraine or the international system for that matter. It's so sad to see what's happening now. But you mentioned China. So I want to ask you, just recently, the New York Times reported that in the past few months, senior U.S. officials had urgent meetings with top Chinese officials and shared with them the intel about Russia's intentions and asked them to help avert the situation. But the Chinese officials refused. In addition, just recently, China lifted the import restrictions on Russian wheat. Now, what do all these tell us about China's role in this whole situation? China is financing Vladimir Putin's attack on Ukraine. On February 4th, when Vladimir Putin met with Xi Jinping in Beijing, just before the opening of the Winter Olympics, they held that two and a half hour meeting. And afterwards, they had that long communique, which talked about the no limits partnership. But even more important, Russia announced new oil and gas deals, $117.5 billion for Russia. And then just a couple days ago, Russia announced the sale of 100 million metric tons of coal to China. Although this money won't start flowing during the middle of this invasion, what it signals to Putin is that China has his back. And it shows that China is fully supporting Russia's foreign policy. So right now, we should be sanctioning China as well as Russia, because the two of them are acting together. Now, some say this also puts Xi Jinping in an awkward situation, because he has to balance what to do, where to stand on this whole Russia's invasion of Ukraine, because China had interest in Ukraine as well, right? So what's your thoughts on that? Well, if there was any balancing, it's clear where he's come out. He's come out 100% on Russia's side. Now, I don't think that Xi Jinping should calculate his interests that way. But he doesn't agree with me. He doesn't talk to me. So it's clear that he does believe that China's interests lie with Vladimir Putin's success. Now, he may change that mind if Putin falters in Ukraine. Right now, we're receiving reports, of course, that the Russian military, although it's not stalled, is nonetheless not moving as fast as people thought. Western intelligence issued the assessment that they felt that Russia would take Kiev, the capital, within 48 hours. Well, 48 hours has come, and it's long gone. And the Russians still don't hold the capital. Matter of fact, they're meeting stiff resistance there and other places. Well, this means, Jenny, that eventually Xi Jinping may decide that Putin is faltering, and that it's not in China's interest to continue its support of Russia. But we've got to remember why Putin invaded in the first place, because he knew that China was supporting him. Now, I think you're right that CCP will adjust and readjust, but ultimately, the nature doesn't change. And that brings us to another question that a lot of people are asking. So, CCP is obviously closely watching the situation. They're international community's reaction to the situation. So, they're probably calculating and evaluating to see how this can tell them about their approach to Taiwan. Like, what kind of action, how will they approach Taiwan? So, are you worried? What's your thoughts on that? We've got to be especially worried because we've seen provocative Chinese actions with regard to Taiwan this month. You know, there were the nine planes that went through Taiwan's air defense identification zone. Just these days? Just last week, or just three or four days ago. Plus also, more significantly, on February 5, China sent a Y-12 plane directly over a Taiwan island. This is the first time in more than four decades that China has violated Taiwan's sovereign airspace. So, this is a real indication that China is upping the pressure on Taiwan. And I think that part of it is in coordination with Russia. Also, it appears that this is going to be helping, of course, Putin as it distracts our attention from what's going on in Eastern Europe. But in any event, we are seeing China act much more belligerently with regard to Taiwan than it has in the past. But you don't think they will take military actions soon, right, or immediately? I think there are a lot of reasons why China would not invade Taiwan. But remember, the world is changing much faster than we can understand it. And the assumptions that we had just two weeks ago no longer apply. And so, although I think that China shouldn't invade Taiwan, there are a lot of reasons why it won't, I think. Right now, I think that we have to assume that all bets are off and we should be preparing for any contingency, including a full scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan. One other thing, we don't know exactly what's going on in Beijing right now, but there does seem to be a lot of infighting at the top of the Communist Party. When there's infighting at the top of the party, leaders can do things which are just beyond our comprehension. Either one way or another, you're saying? Yes. Actually, that's another question I want to ask you because we do see signs. There may be a fierce internal power struggle within the Chinese Communist Party. The CCP's 20th National Congress is coming up later in 2022. A lot of people think that Xi Jinping's third term may not be guaranteed. What's your thoughts on that? I don't think anything is guaranteed right now, including the fact that the 20th National Congress will be held this year. Recently, the National Congresses of the party have been held once every five years. And if tradition holds, the party will hold its Congress in October or November of this year. But this tradition of periodic meetings of the National Congress can be broken. A lot of things have been broken recently. And so, yes, Xi Jinping, his push for a precedent-breaking third term seems to have run into a little bit of trouble. We don't know exactly what, but I don't think it's guaranteed by any means. Now, you must have heard the chain woman incident in China, right? In recent months, it's like number one social media topic. Do you think that kind of incident will shake the foundation of CCP regime? It is something which has captured the attention and the hearts of the Chinese people. And it is something which is an issue that's been around for a long time. Everyone's known about this, the trafficking of women, essentially putting them into slavery. But it takes an incident to actually just be the tipping point. And I think that that's what we have right now. Remember, there's a lot going on inside of China at this time. There is a stumbling economy, the debt crisis, property prices are dramatically falling. You have out of control COVID outbreaks, worsening food shortages. There's no shortage of challenge for the party right now. And all it takes is just one spark to start a prairie fire, to quote someone named Mao Zedong. That actually reminds me of something I always want to ask you. You're probably one of the first people who predicted the collapse of the CCP regime, although you have predicted for years. But still, I want to ask you, do you still hold that view? I think the Communist Party right now is extremely fragile, much more fragile than people think. I wrote a book, The Coming Collapse of China, and I predicted within 10 years, the Communist Party would fall. And it hasn't fallen by July 2011. So I am out of time. There are a number of things that happened, like the 2008 downturn, which gave a lot of strength and sustained the party in a very difficult period. But I'm wrong. But the point is, it's not about me. It's about what's going on in China right now. And there are these simultaneous challenges we just talked about, which means that the party may not be able to get past them. Now, the party has a lot of resources, of course, but it also has a lot of obligations. And right now, I don't think it can meet these crises. So you still believe the ultimate collapse of the CCP regime? Probably pretty soon. I think sooner than most people think, especially because the party has been able to sustain itself because it had the support of other countries, including the United States. And for various reasons, I think that that support isn't going to be there. It's clearly been eroding, even in the Biden administration. So I think that this is something that is a challenge for the party, that it's not going to have the material aid from the United States and other countries at a time where it really needs it. A lot of people actually felt like the June 4th incident is a tipping point, which that if the West could pressure CCP at the time, it could collapse. But unfortunately, things didn't go that way. The West continues to support the CCP financially. I think the CCP developed all the power it needs, whether digital power or financial power. Because a lot of people today at the West, still, they will do business with China at all costs, right? And they will probably look, they'll be more than happy to overlook the human rights violations, atrocities that the CCP committed. What can we do to change that? Well, I think public perception is already changing. We saw, for instance, and this is a perfect example of what you're talking about, that the Winter Olympics, the genocide games, NBC broadcasted them. There were a number of multinational companies, including American ones, that were sponsors. But what the American people did, and this really took me by surprise, the American people just decided not to watch the Olympics. I thought, look, these are the Olympics, they're in China. They got all these issues of genocide, crimes against humanity, belligerent behavior. And I thought people would be riveted by the Olympics because of this. But no, NBC had the worst ratings ever for a Winter Olympics and very substantial, like a 43% drop off from the last Winter Games. And I think that's a real indication that people are tuning out China because they see China as a bad actor. Now, I think that there's obviously a lot to do. We need to cut trade, cut investment, and technical cooperation agreements, because China is attacking our society. Now, of course, not everybody agrees with me. Most people don't. Most people think my proposals are extreme. But I believe that the world is coming around to this view that China is a bad actor. It's not reformable, and it's dangerous. Yeah, I think you're right. I think a lot of people's view have changed in recent years about China, about the Chinese Communist Party. But some, they share with me in these days that this latest Russian-Ukraine situation, some feel that the same thing happened again, because that reminds them of 9-1-1. At the time that 9-1-1 occurred, that was a time when the U.S. should be focused on China, on the CCP threat. That was back in 2001. But 9-1-1 happened, and everything changed. The focus has been shifted immediately. So then CCP grew stronger and stronger. Now, I think a lot of people feel that the world, the U.S., the West, they realize CCP was the biggest threat. But all of a sudden, this Russian-Ukraine situation happened, and the attention seems to have shifted again. So people feel like the same thing seems to be playing again. I don't know if you see a similarity there. That's really perceptive. Because what happened in 9-1-1 was that the George W. Bush administration, which was planning to go after China, shifted, saw, of course, al Qaeda as the number one threat, and enlisted China's help. This is different, though, because in this situation, you have China and Russia on the same side. People are perceiving that China is supporting Russia. So China is viewed as a bad actor. Now, it's possible, I suppose, that people decide to try to get China's help. But remember that New York Times reporting just a couple days ago, where the Biden administration, after the November 15 video summit between Xi Jinping and President Biden, the Biden administration decided to try to work with China to constrain Russia, to prevent it from attacking Ukraine. The Biden administration shared intelligence. But what did China do? China rebuffed Biden, and at the same time, it shared the US intelligence with Russia. So I think that people have a very different view of China now than they did in 2001. So do you still feel that the Chinese Communist Party is the biggest threat to the US, to the free world? I think the Chinese Communist Party is the biggest threat to humanity, bar none. Like we said earlier, CCP must be closely watching the situation in Russia's invasion attack on Ukraine. So what do you think of the international reaction so far, the US reaction so far? Is it enough? Clearly, it wasn't enough. If the reaction of the West was sufficient, Vladimir Putin would never have invaded Ukraine. And now, even after the invasion, the sanctions that President Biden announced on Friday are just clearly insufficient. We're still buying oil and gas from Russia. But I think the general trend is that as Russia continues this invasion, as people see that the Ukrainians are fighting for themselves, as people seeing these atrocities, the West is going to actually start to have a stiffer response. We will see a new round of sanctions. We will see lethal equipment. And talking about the Germans, the Germans are now talking about supplying lethal assistance to the Ukrainian government. So in that sense, things are moving in the right direction. But the issue, Jenny, is whether they're moving fast enough. I'm sure Xi Jinping and the CCP is closely watching the situation. And the more, the longer Ukraine holds on, the more support the international community gave to Ukraine, the more hesitation they would have in terms of, oh, what would we do if we do similar things to Taiwan? And in addition, I think Taiwan's strategic importance to the US and to the West is also different from Ukraine's, right? Could you talk about the difference? There are a lot of differences here. I mean, with regard to the US, you have Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing company makes 90 percent of the made-to-order chips in the world, obviously critical towards things like cell phones, your cell phone and cars and this microphone and everything else. But there are more important factors at play here. So first of all, since the 1800s, Americans have drawn their Western defense perimeter, not off the coast of Hawaii, not off the coast of Guam, but off the coast of East Asia. And of course, Taiwan is in the center of that crucial perimeter. And it is, as a US admiral said at the end of World War II, it's the cork in the bottle. So there's that. But there's something even more significant than that. And that is China is attacking not only our democracy, it's not only attacking democracies, it's attacking the whole notion of democracy itself. And we cannot allow China to absorb any democracy, especially one as important as Taiwan. So you put all these factors together, and I believe that defending Taiwan is defending the United States. Oh, and there's one more thing. After the fall of Afghanistan, the defense of Taiwan is seen as the test of US credibility, which means it's not just a question of the US position in East Asia, but it's a question of US position in Europe and elsewhere. So you put all that together, and I do think that American policymakers should see that we need to defend Taiwan. Do you see that they are moving toward that direction? They're moving in that direction. But again, it's the same thing as we just talked about with regard to Ukraine. It is, are they moving fast enough? Because Xi Jinping has designs on Taiwan. We don't know what he'll do. He could take us by surprise, which means we've got to move so much faster than we are at the present moment. Actually, I wish we have crystal ball, right? So we can see how things will change, because everything just changed so quickly. But I think we need to do the right thing at the historical moments. Yeah, events in the world are changing faster than we can understand them. And the assumptions we made about this world two weeks ago no longer apply. So we live in an exceedingly dangerous world that we don't understand anymore. For people who are watching our program, for a lot of our Chinese audience, I think they still kind of get the propaganda from the CCP. Nowadays, you see a lot of Chinese in China. They're on the side of Russia. This actually puts the Chinese people in Ukraine danger. Because of that, that offends the Ukrainian people. And now the Chinese in Ukraine, the CCP is telling them to hide your identity. How do Chinese people get liberated from all this propaganda from the CCP and see the truth, see the world? Well, yes, the Communist Party does have a monopoly on information or a near monopoly. But then again, there's this news organization, isn't there? Yes, that's true. And also people do understand because the Great Firewall, this internet barrier between China and the rest of the world, isn't 100% effective. And for various reasons, the regime doesn't want it to be 100% effective anyway, which is a complex topic. But the point is news does seep into China. And I'm not sure that the Chinese people think that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a terribly good idea. And I don't think that the Chinese people would think that an invasion of Taiwan is a good idea either for a number of reasons. The Chinese people right now are like the Russian people. They've got a lot of economic problems. And the last thing they think that would be good for them is to get involved in a war. So at this particular time, I'm not sure that a war on Taiwan would be popular inside China. But again, Xi Jinping wields a lot of power. He sometimes listens to what the Chinese people want, sometimes doesn't. And so therefore, as I mentioned, he can take us by surprise. Well, I doubt he knows what the Chinese people's true wishes are because he's surrounded by just a small group of people. He believes what he wants to believe. And that's the problem of that type of system that censors things so much that it's hard for him to understand what the Chinese people are thinking. And it's even hard for him to understand what people around him at the top of the leadership are thinking. So this is a system where information, which is very difficult to flow from the bottom up, because it is, as they say, a top-down political system. Yeah. Eventually, the dictator was cheated by himself and by his group. But thank you so much, Gordon, for sharing your insights. It's very valuable. Thank you. Thank you, Jenny. I really appreciate it.