How Late Can the Democrats Swap Out Joe Biden as Nominee in 2024? With Chris Stirewalt

How late into this process, we're on the Democratic side, can the Democrats sub out Joe Biden? They have, okay, so I want to thank my colleague at the American Enterprise Institute, Nate Moore, who helped me do the voluminous research because I knew, Counselor, that you would come with real questions and would want real answers. Thank you, Nate. I think a rough way to think about this is about, they have about a year, which is to say, there are different mechanisms that would be triggered along the way, but until October or at some point in September of the election year, there could be a replacement. The mechanism for how that replacement would take place differs as you go, and some, if you start at the early end, it's about an electoral process in the primaries, and then it moves to the convention, and then it moves to basically party leaders gathering together to make a selection. But until, so let's say until the middle of September or October 2024, they could still sub out Joe Biden. And if they haven't done it by that date, it's Kamala Harris or whoever his running mate is. So one caveat to carry with all of this stuff is that state legislatures and state parties can change their rules as they go to accommodate exigent needs, right? So you can, as we saw during COVID, state legislatures across the country ripped up election rules. Republicans went some directions, Democrats went other directions about when you can vote, and when you can't vote, and when we're gonna count the votes and all of that stuff. So state legislatures have a lot, a lot of control. But basically, I put it like this. The electoral college meets on the seven, the date is the 17th of September, 2024. So prior to that point, the question is, when have the ballots been printed and when can you get on the, when can you make a change on the ballot? And so the period there between middle September to election day, the party is stuck, right? Because if somebody went to prison, had the nomination taken from them or became incapacitated and could not serve, so it's gonna be up to these electors, basically, as they gather, guided by whatever their state law says in terms of what they can do. So I think what would happen in the case of a vacancy, if you had a person who had won the election but was not able to serve, that most electors would just flip to that person's running mate. I think, and legislatures might direct- When you say won the election, are you still talking primary here? Because we're in September of 24, not- Oh, I was a year ahead. I'm sorry, I was not moving at the right pace. I was already- Okay, I wasn't sure. I wasn't sure. I was at the- No, no, no, I'm saying I'm sort of starting late in the game saying, let's say the Democrats stick with Joe Biden straight through all of 2024. And now we're fall of 24. And the election is about to happen. The general election is about to happen. And the names on the ballot for the Dems are Biden-Harris. And then September, October, anytime before November 4th or whatever the election day is, Biden says, you know what? I'm out. Like, he secured it. He's made sure it didn't go to RFKJ or somebody else. Like, he's gotten it. He's on the ballot. So is she. But that's basically him handing it to Kamala Harris at that point. Is that correct? Okay, so think about it this way. You have between now and the beginning of January where if Joe Biden were to step aside, it would just have a normal open nominating process. Gavin Newsom jumps in, a bunch of people jump in, and you have, there are some deadlines coming up for filing that are material, particularly New Hampshire at the end of this month, and Michigan and Texas, which are also big, early and important states in the nominating process. Those are coming up this year. But the way I think about it is you have the pre-primary period where if Joe Biden stepped aside, it just becomes a primary, right? And it becomes- And we don't care that those deadlines have passed because in this scenario, no one has met the deadlines. There's not a name on there. And the states and the state parties can change the rules and say, okay, we're waiving that. You can come in. You can file. We'll accept this. So up until that happens. Now, you have the period between, for Republicans, it's the beginning of January, or the middle of January, January 15th. But for both parties, it ends in basically the second week of March, at which point enough delegates. Yeah, at which you have Super Tuesday in Georgia, you have South Carolina, Super Tuesday, Georgia, bing, bang, boom. And by that point, enough delegates will have been awarded that if you're not ahead by then, it's very unlikely, it's extraordinarily unlikely that you can win outright going to the convention. So now we're in phase two, which is maybe, so let's say Joe Biden decided to retire, or Donald Trump decided to step aside. No, stay on the Dem side for now. Oh, okay, okay. Well, okay. Yeah, but just cleaner. So let's say Joe Biden steps aside after the primaries are underway. Now, what are you gonna have? You're gonna have a contested convention because nobody's gonna go into the convention with enough delegates to secure it on the first ballot. So at that point, we're in spring of 24, he can't just pass the baton to Kamala or anybody else. Like if he's won all these early contests, he does not yet have the ability to pass the baton. It's gonna be a convention fight. Right, but then your next threshold, and I wanna get the date for you, is I wanna say it's, I think June, I think June is correct, but the final primary contest take place in June. It is June. It's California, right? I remember this. I remember this one. It was Bernie and Hillary, and it was June of 16 when we were gonna know. June 4th, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. California is early now. California is a super Tuesday state, but those are the last primaries. So in the window between June 4th and the conventions, and the conventions are set for July 15th for the Republicans and August 19th for the Democrats. So in that window between the beginning of June and for the Democrats late August, nothing happens, right? There's no way to affect those delegates in a concrete way between then and then. So that is the window in which, well, you wanna play a what if game? Will you indulge me in a what if? Okay. Yeah, please. So let's say Joe Biden is abducted by aliens on the 4th of July of next year, and he is taken away. He might be. They're coming across the Southern border in droves by the day. There you go. Ba-dum-bum. I'm thinking more, ba-dum-bum-bum. So he goes to Melmac, the planet Melmac, and is taken far away and is no longer in the race. What happens then? And what happens then is, all of these Democratic delegates have to pick someone else. And what you would end up with at that convention would be a old-fashioned, absolute battle for a presidential nomination. And it would be wild. It would be wooly. It would be horse-trading. Because the delegates would all have already been picked, but they would be unbound because their candidate was not available. But wait, this isn't that interesting because he's not gonna be abducted by aliens. In the real life scenario, what's happened here? He's become incapacitated. He's- He's incapacitated. Right. He can't find his way to the convention? He becomes unable, for whatever reason, to accept the nomination, whether that- So that's interesting. So if it happens between now and August, his incapacitation for health reasons, it doesn't just go to Kamala, even though she's, as of now, his running mate, and we presume his running mate, on all these early primaries. So between now and March, if he is incapacitated, it just becomes a primary, right? It just becomes a wild and woolly, absolute primary fight, and Kamala Harris would get no- would get no- very few bonus points for being his running mate. We saw this play out in 1968 when Lyndon Johnson stepped aside and tried to grease the skids for Hubert Humphrey. Hubert Humphrey eventually did win, but only after- I mean, this is the election when Bobby Kennedy got assassinated, after a incredibly tumultuous process that ended with a riot in the park across the street from the convention hall in Chicago. It was a catastrophe. And that kind of contest, I'm not saying that it would end in murder and violence, but that, just to say, the capacity of an incumbent president to ease the way for his vice president is minimal. And- Very limited. This would be immediately contested. And Democrats don't even like Kamala Harris that much. So it's not like she would have that track. So between now and March, it just becomes a crazy primary. Between March and June, if Biden were to become unable to serve, then it would be a delegate math game. Who can win the most delegates in these states to go with the most bargaining chips to the convention? How do you get to Milwaukee? Are they Milwaukee? No, they're not Milwaukee. I forget. But how do you get to the convention with the most- The Dems are in Chicago this year. Dems are in Chicago. Perfect historical rhythm right there for Democrats. Not missing a beat on historical rhythm. So they go to Chicago, and your goal would be to have the largest number, the most delegates possible, so that when you got there, you could have the best opening position. So that's the period, let's say, March to June. But can I just interrupt you? So you're saying whatever delegates are available, let's say he bails after Super Tuesday in March. Right, and 40% of the delegates are available. Okay, because he's already won 60. But now the whole contest comes down to those 40. That's right. And it comes down to what will the people who were, what will the delegates who were sent to vote, who were going to be sent to go vote for Joe Biden, what will they do now that they don't have to vote for Joe Biden? So what you'd have would be- So they're free for all. They're like open slate now and need to be persuaded. They need to be wined and dined. They need to be wined and dined, and they need to be, coalitional interest groups naturally would form, and they would say, we like this and we like that. We haven't had a contested convention in the United States in a long time. You have to go back to 1972. All right, there's less than 10 days left for Genucel's incredible Dark Spot package sale. Go to genucel.com slash MK60, MK60 right now, and get their Dark Spot corrector, a must-have after months of record heat and humidity with every one of their most popular packages. Sun spots, brown spots, discoloration, even those dry inflamed patches, all disappear in front of your very eyes. Kimberly from Youngstown, Ohio writes in, quote, my appearance has improved so much since using Genucel on my face, love all my Genucel products, and my skin looks years younger. 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