Miami Heat: What if Dame Lillard doesn't report? | Five on the Floor

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And now, today's episode. Welcome to Five on the Floor, a daily insider show on the Miami Heat and the NBA, featuring Ethan Skolnik, Greg Silvander, and Alex Toledo, plus others from the Five Reasons Sports Network. Welcome back to Five on the Floor. Here's today's floor plan. I'm Ethan Skolnik. You can follow me at EthanJSkolnik on Five Reasons Sports. We've got Greg Silvander. You can follow me at Greg Silvander. Also, follow all of our coverage on playback. If you're listening to this, I don't know if it'll post by then, but yes, we are going to get up to watch Jovich in the morning. I don't think I'm getting up to watch the USA play in their third game, although Eternal is pushing me to do so. All right, let's get to it, Greg. We had a new episode up looking for the mystery team, the team that is all of a sudden going to jump in and try to grab Dame Lillard, because that is the wish casting that Boston podcasters and Portland podcasters and other podcasters have been doing all all offseason. But now we're at a point where, again, the training camp is approaching. And so the floor plan today is we're going to look at the various options for Dame and for the Blazers in terms of handling his situation and how the heat might react to those situations. So I'm going to go through this. This is a report from Ramona Shelburne. This came in on NBA Today late this week. And she said, I think Dame's in Portland when training camp starts. But the question is, is he in camp? So these are two different things. The first thing is, will he be traded by training camp? Most national reporters don't think so, even though we're even starting to get the Blazers shills like Woj saying, well, the conversations may have to restart soon. And I've kind of put September 15th out there as just sort of a random date. I mean, that's like, you know, a week from what? That's next Friday that maybe you start to have conversations. Maybe it's the 18th. Maybe it's a few days later. But we know that heat media day is going to be October 2nd now. That's on Monday, October 2nd. I assume Portland is going to be around the same time. So basically, I'm saying that second half of September, about a week before, maybe two weeks before the end of the month, that maybe Joe Cronin realizes there's no mystery team and he has to do something. But these are really two things, Greg. We've got again, is he in Portland and is he in camp? And the decision on whether he goes to camp is kind of half his, but it could be the Blazers also. So let me ask you this. If he is not traded by training camp, do you expect him to report to camp? And do you think he should report to camp to finish Ramona Shelborn's quote, just so that we get all of her perspective in here? She thinks he'll report. And then there'll be a discussion about whether they have him in camp, whether he participates in camp, whether he'd be better off waiting at home. Dun, dun, dun. This is the one thing that I thought was, um, like if they sent him home and they were prepared to just let him waste away the season. To me, there is an element of this as a heat observer, as someone who wants to see the heat win the championship and have that roster together, where I start to say, okay, when are the heat going to say, all right, we're not going to wait forever for this. And do they ante up? I don't think Dame wants to be in training camp. And I don't think he will be in training camp with, with Portland. I think he would be open-minded to staying away. I'm using air quotes as I say that, uh, because it avoids the drama perspective and it avoids putting him in a position where he has to bad mouth people. It is the path of less resistance, but I don't think that it is something that I don't know. Do you think Miami's going to just let him sit home for all season, like haggling over picks? They might let him sit on Portland, let him sit on Portland, but also Miami's letting him sit home to a degree. If you're just not stepping up to get a deal done, like I feel, I don't know, you're wasting time to degrees where I guess I'm going. Well, I think that's what Portland, the Portland, we talked about this in the last episode that they're, they're counting on one of two things happening, either other teams swoops in, which we've kind of eliminated all of those options or Miami just gets impatient even while competing only with itself and aunties up. Cause they just want to get the guy in already. And part of that is based on the premise, as we've also discussed that, you know, maybe their own guys are feeling, you know, queasy, whether it's hero, Lowry Robinson, et cetera, about what their role is and where this thing is going. And you end up with dissension. Now I have kind of ruled that out. I don't think that that's, what's going to happen. And I've also kind of ruled out another team jumping in here. So really the only one of those three possibilities, I think from Miami's perspective is do they just get impatient? Like do I do that? Do they just want to get the guy in and start this process because it gives them the best chance to compete. And they want to, they want to leverage as much as of Lillard's prime as they still can. You know, and again, take the burden off Jimmy and all of that. But I want to stay with the Portland side here for a second before we get back to the Miami side, because I do think there are interesting dynamics at play here. First thing from Dame's perspective, there's the concern over looking like the Malcontent, looking like the Harden, which clearly he has that concern with the way that he's managed this. I don't think it's about concern about him getting fined. The guy makes enough money. He's going to be able to pay for the hundred thousand dollar fines or whatever it is that the league wants to levy on him. It's more reputation management. It's more, it's not who he is. And he, and he doesn't want to be perceived in a way that he, that is not him. He's not James Harden. He's been someone who has. And this is why, even if he was not trying to get to the heat, I would support the way he's, he's gone about this because he gave this organization 11 years and many warnings, and they did not heed those warnings. And in fact, have now with two separate general managers, okay, all she and now Cronin have essentially gone against what they promised they were going to do. So I, you know, again, I'm supportive of Dame regardless. I will just acknowledge this. Dame has been one of my favorite players to follow in the league well before this particular situation. And, and I would again, feel the same way if he was trying to force his way to Boston or Philadelphia. So, so to me, it's okay. How do you want to handle this? If you're Dame right before we get to the blazers. And if you want to handle this as you Dame, like again, you show up for media day, you become the center of attention. It's almost respectful to stay home. Yeah. And allow Scoot and these other young guys, Shaden Sharp, Anthony Simons to have the stage. Now they're going to get asked about him. So I'm sure that there will be some in the national media who twisted into, well, it was all about Dame anyway. And he put this, his teammates in this terrible position because they had to get asked about him. I mean, there's really nothing he can do to avoid that. They're going to get asked about him, whether he's there or he isn't. It's just more awkward if he's there. So my thing would be, he probably should stay home and get it out somewhere that he didn't want to take away the spotlight from those teammates. Even if again, it's going to be difficult to do that even in, even in absentia. But then it's like beyond that. Okay. So let's say he doesn't report. If it says he reports to camp, but doesn't do the media day and they just agree for him to stay away. Now that's been done with certain players. It was done with Ben Simmons. It's been, you know, and eventually usually, you know, deals get worked out. Guy stays away. He doesn't generally get brought back. Okay. So now you have to pivot to what the Blazers would want to do. And this is where, again, the disconnect comes in, Greg, because if you're the Blazers, you shouldn't want him on the court. And that's, that's the whole thing. It does not make organizational sense to be trying to win games with Dame Lillard right now. It makes organizational sense to allow Scoot, Shaden, Simons, et cetera, to learn through their mistakes and try to play together. And so if I were Dame, I would stay home. If I were the Blazers, I would let him stay home. That that's where I'm at with it. I don't think that's what's going to actually happen. I think if he says he's going to try to stay home, they're going to paint him as the bad guy and try to force him in because that seems to be the way they've handled this the entire time. Is that, is that a correct read of this situation? That's just a prediction. That's not necessarily reporting. That's their hardball way of basically putting Dame in a spot where they think, okay, let's call you bluff one more time. We think that you will report to camp because there's been reports from people who we know are close to Dame that said, oh, he'd come to camp, you know, ultimately. I just think like to send him home, this is the other part of it. And you're hitting on it a bit with what, why the hell Portland would want to do this. There is no bleeping way his value increases. If he sits home, unless Miami starts like two and 12 to start the season. You know what I mean? And like, like it's a scenario where it's so loud in Miami because they're two and 12, which is such a hypothetical, um, that they just have to make a move. Otherwise they're not going to magically start to get more for Dame. It's going to be just like what happened with Ben Simmons, where it's like, you're just sitting around and eventually everyone goes meh at the package you get back. And I think that's, that may be what ultimately happens. Um, again, it depends. What the blazers goal is here. If the blazers goal is to try to convince him to stay, which is ludicrous, uh, then, you know, then you have to decide, okay, do they want to play hardball there and make it even more toxic or do they sort of play nice with him, uh, to a certain degree. And then at some point the guy just wants to play basketball. And so he comes back to you because we know Dame wants to play basketball. That's the other thing, like the, that's the difference between him and Ben Simmons, by the way. Right. Okay. Is that, you know, there are questions about whether or not Ben loved the game, wanted to play, wanted to deal with some of the mental issues he was having, you know, in terms of shooting the ball, et cetera, the emotional stuff, everything else, the injuries, the fake injuries, like there's none of that stuff with Dame, like Dame Lillard wants to continue to play basketball and play basketball at a high level. He just wants to freaking win. Like that's, that's it. And he doesn't want to talk about Portland at all. He won't even mention their name, won't even mention them. So like, okay, so let's eliminate the idea of him coming back unless, unless, you know, he just gets so desperate to play. The one thing I would say though, is if he sits out, I know we say, well, his value isn't going to go up and it probably won't. I don't know that it'll necessarily go down though, because essentially you're preserving his body. Like if he, if let's say he sits out a month, six weeks, okay. You know, he's going to keep himself in good shape, but he's not also, you know, going to absorb the pounding that you do on a daily basis. And especially in Portland, he'll be carrying a team. So, you know, if you, you know, you don't have him playing 34, 35 minutes on a team, that's going to lose every game by seven points. Cause the young guys make dumb mistakes down the stretch and that becomes emotionally, mentally, and physically taxing for him. It's not the worst thing in the world. If, you know, for his value, if he's home rested and rested and doing nothing. So that that's the other part of this, but I also wonder how the league is going to feel about this and how involved they get in it and whether or not Portland uses the league. And then whether the players association gets involved in it. Remember who the president of the players association is. It's CJ McCollum. We can argue about whether CJ has done a particularly good job with the CBA. And I think most people would say for the players, he did not, but he also still happens to be really good friends with Dave Lillard and was his backcourt mate and fellow star for seven years. I would figure that the players association is going to jump in here at some point, if they feel like Dame is being mistreated, right? If they send him home, I believe Portland becomes public enemy. Number one, I think it completely changes because everyone knows Dame loves the game and wants to hoop. He's been putting up with BS in Portland just to hoop for years. And so I think that's the moment that no matter what the league, how they want to spin it, the players association will be loud about it. But I think just general consensus will be like, what the hell are the trailblazers doing to their franchise icon? While they're hoping for some star point guard, another team to blow out a knee basically. So some team gets desperate enough to try to trump the Heat's offer. And we went into all of that. So before we go to break here, because on the other side, I want to get into how the Heat handle this in each of these scenarios. What do you think is the most likely thing? And then I'll tell you what I think is the most likely thing. I think that they're going to have a conversation as training camp approaches. They're going to find out where Dame's at. He's going to be just as cold as he was. And they're going to come back to the negotiating table and humbly get something done. That's my prediction. I agree with you. The one thing I would add to it is I think this conversation occurs and they mutually agree. You get the text from Woz, Spears, Haines, etc. will be tinged a little differently on Woz's account than on the others. But the team, you know, because Joe Cronin is a for him, Joe Cronin, you know, should should be in Marvel, Marvel or DC Comics as the protagonist. I think that there will be a tweet that's sent out from one of them or all of them that says the parties have agreed that at this time, it's in the best interest of the organization and of Dame Lillard for him to take a break as or for him to be away from the team as this situation is being is being worked out. And then I think basically, you know, then you have ownership in Portland side and others say, OK, Joe, you got a week. Let's try to get let's not make this a circus. See what's out there and get the best deal done. That's what I think is likely. And I said before this idea, you know, well, how long are you going to wait and all this? And we'll get into the heat's perspective on the other side. He got Alonzo Mourning a day before the regular season started. That's how they got him when Charlotte, when he wasn't coming to terms with Charlotte on an extension. And so slightly different situation. But these things do go into the season. We've seen this happen before. And I very much think that could be the case. But training camp is a month before the season. So we're about three weeks before the season, two, three weeks. So you you have a scenario there where there is a point. And I think that's why you're saying the national people are all getting back from vacation now and now they can start being used by the Blazers front office or by Dame. It's just it's just how this thing works. 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So let's look at it from the heat's perspective now. And we want to introduce a couple of things that have happened here before we do. Seems like the heat young guys have made a hell of an impression. It's not just that we're going to be talking about Jovich playing in the final of FIBA and the heat account is promoting him now fairly regularly. They were not for a while or not to quite the degree. It almost seemed like they were hiding him. But now it's like Hawkins is getting like the royal treatment, like when Jimmy Butler is not at the U.S. Open holding up signs about himself, he is inviting Hawkins to hang out with him, try on clothes with him, drink coffee with him. We know that Hawkins is favorite player is Jimmy Butler. He said that before the heat drafted him. He said that after the heat drafted him. We've also talked with Brady and Alex about the similarity of their games. Jimmy Butler taking him in. I mean, I you know, he took Tyler Hero in as a rookie. I know there were some ups and downs after that, but he he invited him to his house in Chicago at that time. Tyler, you know, told me all about what they, you know, three, they spent three, four days together. He actually even Jimmy had to close on a property in South Florida and Tyler flew down with him as a rookie when Jimmy went to close the property. And now like Hawkins is getting the Tyler treatment from Jimmy. And we've spent the entire summer talking about how they're you know, if we know Jimmy wants Dame, I mean, I don't know if Jimmy's going on the trade machine and trying to figure out, OK, what Joe Cronin would want. I highly doubt that he doesn't really pay attention to that kind of stuff. But I don't I mean, would Jimmy be paying this much attention to Jaime Hawkins if he thinks he's gone just to be nice? I think so. And I'll I'll say why, because I think Jimmy Butler and I think players in general are not as connected, play by play, blow by blow, moment to moment in this transaction world that we live in, particularly as we host a five on the floor Miami podcast. I think that there's a degree of veteran players that they go and they meet the rooks and they figure out, do I vibe with these guys? Do I not? You know, we saw BAM scrimmaging with him recently. So he's he's getting acclimated to these guys. And I think that there's an element of it that as professionals and we aren't professionals like they are. So I don't know that we can handle it the way they do. They have to act as if that's their teammates. And then when they're not, they're not. But I think like the brotherhood is supposed to transcend the transaction. And so that's where I think there's a part of this that I think Jimmy is being a team leader and a good pro, and he recognizes Hawkins is probably a great fit. But there's a part of me, too, that sees. And I don't think Jimmy necessarily took Jovich under the same type of wing or at least we didn't see it. It wasn't publicized. It doesn't mean it didn't happen. I'll just say this way back when this whole conversation started. I heard you can have our available picks and young players or you can have all the picks we can conjure up, but you ain't getting both. And so I think that that stemmed from that. The heat really like these young guys. And now you're getting guys like Jimmy and Bam spending time with Hawkins. We've seen it recently. So I do think it adds an element of you get more attached to players. You see how they fit. I ultimately think, obviously, whatever they need to get done for Dame, they'll get done. But I think Jimmy, more than anything, is being who he is. And that's just being true to the fact that this is a brotherhood beyond owners squabbling over assets. I agree with you about players not paying attention to the play by play and that Jimmy Butler is the last guy in the world who's going to pay attention to any of that crap. I mean, no question about it. I mean, he was asked about TBUSA. He said, I don't give a damn. I'm not paying attention. I don't give a right. What's FIBA? Right, exactly. But this seems a little extra. It does. It seems a little. I mean, it's one thing to say team. I mean, let's let's just be honest. I don't want to create anything here, but you don't see Jimmy and Bam hanging out in the offseason. Sitting in towels, drinking tea. I don't know. Have we ever? I mean, I mean, I guess. Right. Not not since maybe their first year together. Yeah. Right. You don't see that. I mean, you see, you know, Jimmy would post, the stuff of hanging out with Gabe or hanging out with Max at a certain point. But I mean, again, you're talking about a rookie who's been bandied about trade talks now that rookie also happens to have gone to, you know, Tony Fiorentino's camp. He's done a lot of stuff with the team this summer, and it's been pretty clear he wants to be here, just like Jovich wants to be here. We even saw Jimmy's influence on Jovich when he trolled Dylan Brooks, which is something that Brady pointed out, you know, in the in the hallway after Serbia beat beat Canada. So Jimmy is having a huge influence on both of these guys already. And again, that pivots back to this, which is I mean, are the heat enough in love with these guys first thing that it would be a deal breaker for them? I don't believe so. But again, all of it comes down to leverage. And so let's go back to what we were talking about before. Let's say dames away from this mutual decision occurs. He's going to stay away from camp. What do you think that he'd do that break? Do they become more aggressive to get the thing done? Or do they let Cronin kind of stew there? Because, you know, he's gonna there. His head coach is gonna be the guy asked about it's gonna be Chauncey Billups asked about it every day. You know, have you talked to Dame at, you know, is Dame getting, you know, you know, when you're putting in a new offense, you know, what are your thoughts? Is Scoot going to start next to Dame? All of these things are going to start to occur. And then, you know, I'll have to check to see when the Blazers first preseason game is. But then when that happens. Well, and the players will be asked questions. And I wouldn't be so comfortable letting rooks just give their opinions on how that scenario is playing out when they ask, like, how do you think the organization is treating the greatest player in franchise history? Like, that's an awkward question for one of those rookies to have to answer in itself. I, the fan in me wants to say the Heat are going to ante up and they're going to get impatient and they're going to get it done. The longtime observer of Heat basketball and operations tells me that they're going to be very careful and kind of let Cronin roll around in his own bleep and see how that feels and see how it works. And I'll just caution when we talk about Jimmy and Hawkeye's getting closer. There is a hotels.com tag at the end of this Instagram post, which suggests that it could be an ad hashtag ad. So they also could be getting the bag here. And so we could be overthinking it to that degree. Also, I think that the Heat are going to wait because there's just a degree of I think that they understand that they are better at their jobs than Portland is. And so they're willing to bet on themselves in any way, shape or form. And Portland, when they bet on themselves, they usually do not come out on the right side of things. So I think that that is where they'll land. They'll be they're not going to grow impatient. Do you disagree with that? I don't think they have any reason to grow up. I just don't. I think they like these kids enough that they don't have to be impatient. I think that and then also they are comfortable enough with the way that Hero has channeled all of this, this offseason, that they don't need to be impatient and they're comfortable enough with their head coach's ability to manage this, that they don't need to be impatient. So I don't believe that they will be impatient. I think if there was even a team that you and I could have identified with Brady yesterday, we did that podcast that really, really lurked, OK, not us trying to find a way that Philadelphia or New Orleans or a couple of the others that we talked about, you know, might be able to get involved here, then it would be different. All right. Because then then I do think that some of the pressures that we've talked about, Pat's age, Jimmy's age, this window, I think we're going to do a Jimmy Butler week coming up here on the podcast and we'll get into some of that stuff. I think that would play. And by the way, you mentioned the promotional aspect of this. And I should check on that because you remember the photo shoots with Justice and Jimmy prior to Jimmy's first year. Remember, they were doing all the clothing stuff together and I thought we had our new duo. Right. Right. Well, Justice did, because Justice, Jimmy, remember, missed the first three games of that season dealing with a personal issue. And Justice had twenty seven, seven and seven in his first in the in the season opener and looked at us all in front of his locker and basically claimed it was still his team. So I don't know necessarily that the photo while he didn't play, it was his he implied it. And now it's funny because Justice could be back, who knows, in a day, another trade that's that's that's always hung out there as a possibility, by the way. How bad of a start as we talk about that? Because I agree with you, there is no need for the heat to feel more impatient because they like these guys. So how bad of a start do they have to get off to for that impatience to rise? Is it five hundred basketball through twenty games? Is it on? They were five hundred basketball through twenty games last year. I know that's what makes this so hard. They made the finals. Make them jump. Exactly. That's why I think it's really fascinating. And it's not like it's not OK. And I'm hearkening back to other episodes we've done, but it's not like their lack of a point guard is going to be what inspires them to Andy for Dan Lillard, because it's not like plugging a hole at point guard. It's like it's like gutting your part of your franchise to bring in a hall of famer. Right. So it's not like, oh, we have to go get somebody because Kyle's pulled a hamstring and now we're playing to to two ways, you know, as our point guards here or and or Tyler's turnover prone, having to play out of position or Josh or whatever. This is I mean, this is a seismic franchise altering move you're trying to make here. You don't just make it because you're desperate, because you're nine and 11. I mean, this is a franchise also that was nine and eight in LeBron's first year and made the finals that was under that was, I believe, 20 and 19 or something along those lines with when Stan walked away and and Pat took over and Shaq came back and that team won a championship. So, I mean, the bad starts are not necessary. It's more so the other way it's or the other discussion, which is if they got off to a really good start, does it affect things? And if they got off to a really good start and Tyler's taken a leap and they figured out the point guard situation to some degree and they and then the two kids are playing in the rotation and contributing and showing growth, does that move the heat at all away from this? Now, I don't think so, because I still think that the grander vision here is we're going to get Jimmy a ring. Pat wants another ring. Mickey wants this to pay off. And so we're going to go get Dame regardless. Future be damned. And we'll just deal with the consequences. But I think it's more likely. I don't think either is likely. I want to make that clear, but I think it's more likely that a good start alters the heat's a really good start, alters the heat's position more than a so-so to bad start does, because their whole thing. I mean, again, I mentioned I mentioned the 0506 season bad start, right? Oh, 304 season. They started on seven and they ended up in the in, you know, within two games of the conference finals. OK, last year they started. They were basically a 500 team for most of the year, ended up three minutes away from not making the playoffs and made it to the finals. 2015 excuse me, 2015, 16. They were only four games above 500 at the all star break and lost Chris Bosh for the season, but ended up and ended up getting within a game of the files, the bubble, the game of the conference finals, right? They losing to Toronto, the bubble season where they were a fifth seed and made it to the finals. I've forgotten all of these. And then the other one, 1617, which is the ultimate one where they start 11 and 30. And Andy's telling Pat they need to have a conversation. And by the time they have that conversation, they've won three straight. And that three straight gets them to basically go with it. And they came within a game of making the playoffs because they went 30 and 11 in the second half. So what I just give you seven, six, seven examples of bad starts. This organization is not going to panic after a bad start. Maybe that should have been the episode. That's just not going to happen. It's not now a really good start. If they come out of the gates and they're 15 and five, I don't know. I think it depends who's playing the major role. Correct. Right. If if if Tyler is is cooking. Okay. The kids are playing well. It looks like a fit, you know, and then you start saying, oh, can we tweak this, make it a little bit better at the all star break? We're getting off Duncan's contract relatively soon. We're getting off, Kyle, at the end of this year. Maybe we can vomit when they hear you saying all I get you. I'm not proposing it. I'm not proposing it. I'm not saying they're going to do it. I'm just saying I think it's more likely that that could alter their stance away from it than it is a bad start or a so-so start. A nine and 11 star pushes them to do to go to a place that they're not willing to go right now. Unless the bad start makes Jimmy super grumpy. Let's qualify by that. Well, that is possible. Oh, that is that is possible. And then if he starts sitting games and it starts to get a little dicey there, then, yeah, I think that is possible. You know, it's funny when people have talked about disgruntled and Tyler. Tyler is not the one I think of. It's Jimmy. It's Jimmy. It's it's it's you know, I'm saying like Bam's not going to create waves regardless. He's not going to be pushing to go trade his guy Tyler or anything like that. It's Jimmy's the one to watch on the heat. It's always going to be the case. It's not you know what Tyler frankly, what Tyler Kyle Duncan or any of those guys or Jovich or Hawkins as young players doesn't none of that matters. 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