Manchester City vs. Inter Milan: The FULL Champions League final preview | ESPN FC

Let's continue a bit the tactical analysis and preview of the of the final. Stu, imagine that you are Pep and we know that Pep in the past, as we've all said it, kind of overthinking a little bit and going with no six against Chelsea in the final, going some crazy stuff there and there at times, but this time it seems that he's found the best team. You mentioned the little box in midfield, the five defenders, the five attackers, all of that. You don't expect any surprises this time. You think that this is going to be the team that starts the final? I think so. I think that would be the shape as well. I can't see any reason why I'd want to change it at the moment. They're playing top quality football. They're very difficult to stop playing and stop getting possession. They can always find a spare player somewhere on the field. So I don't think he will change that until we go with the same side. You could have the discussion about Bernardo Silva or Mahrez. Mahrez who scored a hat-trick in the semi-final of the FA Cup and on occasions has been fantastic, but I think he'll stick with Bernardo Silva. So we're talking Ederson in goal, obviously, and then Walker, Diaz. I suppose the other one is Akanji or Ake maybe? I would go with Ake, to be honest. You have a left footer on the left-hand side. Yeah, I would have a left footer on the left-hand side because if he needs to go out to left-back, he can defend out there just as well. Akanji's okay out there, but Ake, I think, over the course of the last year, has been a better player. Then Stones, Rodri, Gündoğan, the one we said, the British, Haaland and Bernardo Silva in the middle. Gabi, do you think the same or do you think that Pep has been asked the question a million times, could he come up with something like Rodri in goal or Walker as a number nine instead of Haaland? It's funny because he was asked specifically about the decision to take out Rodri in that final against Chelsea. I don't think he likes these questions and you know my view on it. I don't think it's overthinking. I think it's thinking. We can't have it both ways. We can't praise him for being clever when he does something new like the back three and then say, oh look, you're overthinking when it doesn't work. He said something which I thought at some point is a bit underreported. He said, we had a very good reason for not starting Rodri, I am paraphrasing here, and if I were to tell you the reason, you would agree with me. So I don't know if there was some mystery there that we don't know about. You still didn't say why you did it, but you know. You didn't say why, but people didn't pick up on it. But no, I would agree that's it. I personally, I do wonder a little bit about Ederson. You know my views on him and the kind of season he's had. I'm wondering if there's a hint in the fact that Ortega's played quite a little bit in goal, obviously in the cup final and I believe in one of the two games, if not both games, towards the end of the season. So I was just wondering a little bit whether Ederson might be slightly affected by something or maybe by not having played in a couple of weeks, but not a huge deal. Otherwise, right, I think there's a potential Bernardo Silva issue. I think Ake is probably a better fit to stop Benzel Dumfries because he's left-footed and because he's probably more athletic than Akanji. But I mean, to me, that's pretty much a toss-up. I mean, we've seen, we mentioned Stones and that incredible transformation, let's be honest there, because at the start of the season, nobody, neither of us could have thought that towards the end it would be this wonderful midfielder that clearly brings a lot of balance and control to the team. But we've also seen a bit against Bayern Munich, for example, and Real Madrid in where he was a bit hybrid. So there was a midfielder in him when City had the ball, so he could offer another option to the guy on the ball. And also when they lost the ball, to come back and play next to Diaz and then to go back to a back four. I guess against the front two that Gabi was mentioning before, which is very unusual and City haven't faced many front two really this season, not many teams in the Premier League play like that. Maybe there's also that option because you're right, lately we've seen Stones as a midfielder with the ball, start to finish. He will still go into a back four from goal kicks and things like that. So when the goalkeeper might be thinking about going long up to Dzeko or Lukaku, whoever's playing, and Martinez will try and run off the back of him, that's when he goes into a back four. So he plays as a normal centre. But as soon as they win back possession, he steps into midfield. And the thing that he's done brilliantly is because sometimes he's been a spare player. He hasn't stopped. He hasn't stayed in midfield and said, right, I'm going to pass it square and that's my job done. He carries on making the forward runs. He's making runs that Kevin De Bruyne, when Kevin De Bruyne goes wide, he keeps going further and further. And Rodri's been doing the same. So they have to be very aware Inter Milan of the movement of Stones and Rodri. They can't allow them the freedom of the park as Real Madrid did at the Etihad and at times Manchester United did at the FA Cup final. I agree. For Inter, Gabi, where do you stand on the Dzeko-Lukaku discussion? Is it really that obvious that Dzeko is going to start form with Lautaro because Dzeko has played the big games and clearly Inzaghi likes that partnership? Or the fact that Lukaku has come back into form really towards this end of the season where, let's not forget, Inter have won 11 of the last 12 games. So they're in really, really good form and Lukaku is in good form as well. Would you be tempted to start Lukaku with Lautaro if you were Inzaghi? I would be tempted. I don't think Inzaghi will be. I think certainly the buzz is that it's going to be Dzeko. And I think part of it is there's another element that comes into play. Inzaghi is famous for his program substitutions and really exploiting the five substitutes more than anybody. In fact, there's a big contrast with Pep here because Pep rarely uses all five. In fact, he often just uses one or two with that. So I think the idea of having a fresh, big, strong, fast Lukaku coming on at the hour mark when, you know, obviously it depends how the game goes to that point. I mean, Inter could be 4-0 down and it's not going to make much of a difference. But if the game is closed, if Inter is still in the game, all of a sudden you've got a serious change of pace to deal with in terms of City's defenders because Dzeko is obviously a lot more static, a lot more stationary than Lukaku is. I think both are very, very intelligent, very unselfish players. So I think he likes that option of chucking Lukaku in there, hopefully at a point in the game when the City defenders are going to be a little bit more fatigued. Dzeko or Lukaku? Lukaku is more dangerous than Dzeko. Dzeko is a hold-up player and I think that's what Inzaghi wants in the side to start with. You talked about Ivan Toni beforehand about when they played against Brentford, he was the target man, he held the play up and then players could run off the back of him. So that's why he will probably start. I just hope Inzaghi doesn't leave it too late to bring on Lukaku and make those substitutions that Gabi was talking about. In case, you know, if they're 2-0 down and the game's gone, it's no good then bringing Lukaku on after 65 minutes because he's not going to change the game. And of course, Brozovic will come on into midfield probably and Mkhitaryan will go off and Cannonoli will play higher up the field. The same substitutions are made week in week out for Inter. We probably will see Gosens play at some point halfway through the second half and come on for Di Marco. That's been the case in most of the games I've seen this season. So yeah, I would go with Dzeko to start with and Lukaku probably after 60 minutes. It's a big game, Gabi, for both Pep and Inzaghi, really. I mean, Inzaghi, remember when Inter were really going through that bad patch in results, in terms of numbers and the expected goals and things like that, they were still doing okay, but they were still not, they were not winning. And there was a time where we even thought that he might not finish the season. And now he's in the Champions League final. They've won already the two Cups, the Cup and the Super Cup in Italy. So this is, as you mentioned on Monday, a potential trouble, their own trouble, if you want. But this is, I mean, I don't want to say is this game more important to Pep or to Inzaghi because it's the Champions League final and it's important for everybody. This is not the question, but Pep has been there before. He's won some, he's lost some, of course. For Inzaghi, this is something quite special. I know for all his career as a player, he was in the shadow of his brother who was better than him and won more things than him, et cetera, et cetera. I mean, he was better in the sense that he won more things than his brother. His brother was far more successful than him. Yeah, exactly. So this is huge as well. It's huge for him personally, for the criticism that he received earlier in the season, for what he's been doing with his inter side. So where do you see this kind of, the approach of that final from a Pep point of view and from an Inzaghi point of view? And then Robbo, I'll ask you the same for you as a former coach and manager. I mean, look, I think this game is bigger for Pep. I know he's obviously been there, done it. He's got nothing to prove, but in his head, he said so himself, there's going to be something missing if City don't win the Champions League. The reality is he hasn't won a Champions League in 10 years and he's had the teams to do it. The reality is he's never won a Champions League without Lionel Messi. It doesn't diminish him, but he's the one who brings us up. He's the one who talked about this pressure that's on himself. If you're Simone Inzaghi, you're playing with house money because you are, his whole life has been, I am the underdog here. He was a far more talented player than his brother, but people said, oh, look, his brother, people is, oh, he's hungrier. He's more, he's more edgy. Simone was always sort of the good younger brother who liked to please and people think he's soft. He said so himself. He's like, don't mistake my politeness for stupidity. He's polite. So he's already proved a ton by getting where they are. Let's not forget, you know, Inter are perpetually flirting with insolvency year after year. Let's not forget who's on this team. It's a bunch of free trancers. It's a bunch of players who other teams didn't want. Yes, you have a sprinkling of, I think, superstars. I think for me, Bastoni is a superstar for a defender. I think Barreira can be a superstar. But, you know, there aren't too many others like that. And, you know, this is, this is an underdog story. So clearly the game is going to be bigger, I think, for Pep, because there's simply a ton more expectation. Inter have already won their season in terms of achievement. Simone Inzaghi certainly has when he had so many people doubting him. So I don't know if that answers your question, but for me, there's no question. No, no, no, it is. Because do you agree? Do you think the pressure is more on Pep? Because this time they're so close. I mean, when they lost to Chelsea, they had lost to Chelsea before the season. We knew that Tuchel was a bit of a, they were a bit of a buggy team, but you know that. They've come across each other in Germany as well. Yeah, exactly. And this time they are so hugely favoured. Everybody really give them winners. Nobody sees Inter so much. And they're playing really well at the moment. Top class side, that performance against Real Madrid was magnificent. So there's a lot more pressure on Pep Guardiola. And as Gab said, he's putting pressure on himself as well. He wants to win the European Champions League for Manchester City to say that, you know, this is, I've developed this club from, of course, with lots of money, but I've developed this club from where they were to being the champions of Europe. As for Inzaghi, when we did the, I commentated on the first leg, when they went to Benfica, he was under massive pressure going into that game. If he'd have lost that game, I, Gab might disagree, but I thought he would have lost his job. He was under so much pressure. I think they'd lost five out the last six, or they've been, they were on a terrible run. He gets a good result away at Benfica. And from that moment on, they've been a very good side. Can they carry on into the final against Man City? I just think there'll be a little bit too much fear about Inter when they, when they come up against City. So we mentioned on Monday, when we, when we looked into the EFA Cup final, that Erling Haaland still didn't score in that game. I think it's five games in a row. One goal in his last, in his last eight, you know, competition. Some games that he only came on, he didn't start, they were not all starters. Gab is not worried. I'm not too worried either, to be fair. But this is still the longest drought, one of the longest drought we looked in his career, like certainly from the Dortmund years. I'm not sure about Salzburg, but Salzburg, he was scoring so much. Do you think that he would think about it in his head? This is the biggest game of his career. This is the biggest game of many of those players' careers. Or do you think he's such a machine in a way that he actually doesn't care? He'll care that he hasn't been scoring, but he knows that another chance will come his way. He will probably take it. But what we haven't said is that, you know, when I was again looking back at how the opposition can play against this Man City team, even though he's not scoring goals and he doesn't have that many touches of the ball, he continually takes two or three players. Real Madrid stuck Tony Kroos in front of him and still had two centre-halves, so they had three players against one almost, which allowed Stones and Rodri to be completely free. Manchester United had two centre-halves up against him, you know, and they then put their two holding centre-halves, centre-midfield players, wide. So the ball was rolled into him. But every time I think, can Damian go out wide occasionally? Can Bastoni go out and be a full-back? I still think Haaland against the Cherby with a ball over the top? As good a player as the Cherby is, he's not going to match him for pace and he only needs one little ball down the side and he's away. So he's still playing his part without having that many touches, without scoring goals. He's still a key factor to the way men's City play. Gabi, Cherby against Haaland. I mean, Cherby is one of the fairytales of this final, considering he's been cancelled twice. Again, nobody would have expected him to be there, starting a Champions League final at the start of the season. We saw Rudiger being very aggressive in the first leg against Haaland, with success. The second leg against Real Madrid, Haaland could have had a hat-trick and missed those chances as well. Where do you stand on the Haaland situation, the debate and the match-up with Cherby? I like the idea that Cherby beat Cancer, so he can certainly beat Haaland. But in reality, he's going to have to use his entire toolbox to stop him. I think he's going to get help. I think the fact that he has a phenomenal athlete to one side of him in Bastoni and he has a very experienced player next to him in Darmian is also going to help. I'm more concerned with the interplay when De Bruyne comes forward. We talk about front one, front two, but based on where De Bruyne has been playing of late many times, De Bruyne is right up there too, or Gouldegarn. I think that's going to be the big threat against Inter's back three. If I can go back to the midfield, obviously Robbo said they're going to have 30% possession. That could happen. It wouldn't surprise me if it happened. Equally, Inter's midfielders, and this is a break from Inter's sides of the past, there's no holding midfielder there. You've got all guys that can ball. You've got all guys that are comfortable on the ball. Yeah, I think they can soak up the pressure. I think to some degree, you imagine Mkhitaryan or De Bruyne. De Bruyne probably won't start, but these guys are good at keeping the ball. They're good at getting fouled as well, because when you press, you foul, alleviating the pressure. I think I wouldn't be surprised if Nzaghi tries to do that. You can involve the center halves in that a little bit too, Bastoni's got an incredible left foot. You don't want to be in a situation where you're compressed in your box, and City just keep pinging the ball around, because sooner or later, they're going to score. That's not how Inter want to play, and I think Nzaghi knows they're not going to be successful if they do that. Now, if you do try to keep the ball, obviously you open yourself up. There's more space behind for Haaland to run into, and then, as you said, Haaland versus a Chadby in a foot race, I'm not going to back a Chadby there. True, but Onana can be a really good sweeper-keeper as well. If you don't have to play super high line all the way to the halfway line, you've just upset me. If you have a medium block, what I mean by that is Onana is clever enough to judge the danger, he's good at the ball with his feet, he's one of the best in terms of distribution, so I don't think they will play a super high line, but a medium block could be a decent option there with a back five. Because they're certainly not going to press high up the field. You're not going to have Dzeko, and Martinez will probably drop onto stones, that's how I think it will happen, and Walker and Ake will be the spare players, and Dzeko will stay up against Diaz. So it's how they then cope with Walker coming forward with the ball, and who goes to him first, and who goes to Ake first, and who they leave, so that Man City can play from there. So I don't think it's going to be, it certainly won't be a high press from Inter, it could be a medium one, so they're really compact in midfield, and they sort of almost say, try and play the ball over the top, like you just said, Onana will be on a good starting position, and Bastoni, and Damian, Damian's quite quick as well, they can be ready for that, and Achebe gets tight to Haaland to almost win balls played into his feet. But if you do that, you're still talking about playing three players against one centre forward, and then you've got spare players elsewhere on the pitch. But defensively, we know that Inter, and just before you go, defensively, we know that Inter will have, it has to be a masterclass if they want to win, even if they defend 80% well. The decision making, the decision making, the talking, the understanding between each section of the team has to be right. When does Damian allow Dumfries to go on and say, I'm going to go out and defend Grish? When does he say to one of the midfield players, let Gundogan come on to me, because I'm spare, so he's going to run on to me. They're the decisions, and they have to get right 95% of the time. Yeah. Gabi? Yeah, I just wanted to add, I mean, you mentioned there, you know, at some point, you have to pick your poison, right? You can't match up with everybody all the time. If, as Robo suggested, Walker and Ake or Kanji, if he plays, if they're the spare players with the ball, you know, and they bring the ball forward, if I'm in Zaghi, you know what, I can live with that. They're not as technically gifted as some of the other players on this city team who can hurt me. I think you also have to make some decisions, maybe based on form. I don't think Grish, for example, has been exceptional this season. I don't think he was great in the FA Cup final. Yeah, leaving aside the whole penalty incident that he wasn't happy with. You know, is there something that you can do that you can do there? You know, do you maybe actually leave Dumfries with them? Well, Gab, what I would say is, the best thing that in Zaghi can do is make Man City as predictable as possible. That's the art of good defending when you're playing against a better team. Make them predictable. Make them so you know where the attacks are going to come from. So, when the goalkeeper gets the ball, you sort of, they could go on half one side of the field. Throw it out to Ake, but we're not going to let Ake play it in field. He's got to play it to Grealish. Now, we'll lock Grealish in. Yeah, with his back to goal. And he's got to go back to Ake. So, we're defending a very small area of the field, and we know where the attacks are coming. That has to be in Zaghi's plan at some point, to make Man City as predictable as possible. If they allow balls to go into Rodri and Sturridge, they can go anywhere with their passes. They can go into the front, they can go wide down the left, wide down the right. There's no defending it. Well, just to finish, boys, nine teams in the history of football have done the treble. So, the Champions League or the European Cup before the Champions League, the League and the FA Cup. Celtic in 67, by the way, who also did the quadruple, the only team. Ajax in 72, PSV Eindhoven in 88, Manchester United, of course, in 99, the only English club to have done it. Barcelona, 09 with Pep, of course, and 15 with Luis Enrique. Inter, the Mourinho team, of course, in 2010. Gabi, remember. And then Bayern twice in 13 and 2020. City, obviously, just need this final. They've already won the League and the FA Cup. Would this be... I mean, this would be an amazing achievement. As you can tell, not many teams have done it in the history of the Champions League since the 50s. Would this be Pep's greatest achievement and would this make the City team maybe the greatest that we've seen in English football history? The Liverpool team of the 80s were fantastic and they were winning European Cups. But no trebles. But no trebles and they were winning the League and they always fell at the FA Cup, whatever it was. Man City, if you're a manager playing against Man City, they must be the hardest team to plan against. You look at it and think, we could be beaten so easily here if we don't get everything right. And I don't think there's ever been a team that other managers will be frightened of. You could go to Man City and lose 7-0 if you don't get your tactics right. And if you don't get your tactics right at home with your pressing, whatever you're doing, you could be embarrassed and not have any more than 20% in front of your own fans. So in that terms, if they won the Champions League, I think they would be as good as anybody that's played in English football. Gav, what do you think? Leaving aside the obvious thing that teams in the present are generally always better than teams in the past, just because the game has changed and is more globalised, it would certainly be a tremendous achievement. I'm not sure this is Pep's greatest team. I think his Barcelona side, for me. You had Messi in that Barcelona side, so surely a team like this City team, which collectively has to be better because you don't have Messi in it. No, but I think that team would beat this team. I mean, we can talk about the press all day. Look, it's a fun talking point, but I could see Xavi and Iniesta and Dani Alves just passing the ball around this press all day long and then Messi and Vence out of nowhere. We're obviously never going to know whether his Barcelona team would beat his City team. It is a fun talking point that you can debate, I think, endlessly. But I think with City, there's two other considerations we have to make. One which City fans won't like and one that they will like. One, we know that they are under investigation by the Premier League. They've been under investigation by UEFA. You know the outcome of that. You know that they breached before and accepted a settlement. That is a matter of fact, but it is a matter of record. Equally, though, this idea that the City team are successful because they've outspent everybody and whatever, it's kind of nonsense. This City team broke even in the transfer window last summer. In fact, I think they made a small profit. This City team over the last four years, I think they have a net spend of 140 million, round about 35 million euros a season, which is not a lot. This City team, most tellingly, they have the sixth highest wage bill in Europe. So, European football is not a fair fight. They are 10 teams, 12 teams that have far more resources than everybody else and they have far more resources than Inter. Great. But compared to their peers, compared to the other teams that spend all this money and that have these massive wage bills and have these massive resources, Pep has taken those resources and done a better job with them, and really City as a unit, and done a better job with them over the last three, four years than any of his peer teams. There's no point comparing City with Inter or with Monaco. Why Monaco? Well, I'm trying to think. Team that's beaten them in the past. No, or Betis or whatever, right? Compare them to their peers. Compare them to the big spenders. Compare them to Paris Saint-Germain. Compare them to Manchester United. Compare them to Chelsea. Compare them to Liverpool. These are City's peers. And they have done much more with those resources than the others have done. So, I think a lot of praise has to go to Pep, a lot of praise has to go to the club for what they've done to those resources. And then investigators will determine how they got those resources, whether it was fair that they played with those resources and so on. That's a whole separate issue. But it's not like they have two or three times the resources of the competition, and that's why they win. Although, of course, they do have two or three times, if not five times the resources of Inter right now. But globally, this feat will remain regardless whether they win or lose on Saturday.