Why Steph Curry might be the best offensive player ever - Greatest Peaks Ep. 15

Traditional NBA superstars have either been really, really tall or really, really athletic. Every other player in this series is at least 6'5", except for this guy, Wardell Stephen Curry. Curry's rightfully considered the greatest shooter in NBA history, but just how good can someone be with outlier shooting? How much did his lack of classic athleticism hold him back on defense? And was his radical offensive approach so game-changing that it made him the most valuable offensive player of all time? This series tackles one question. Who was the best at his best? We start at the NBA merger and go through the best multi-year stretches examining the legends who provided the most on-court impact. These are The Greatest Peaks. I liked it, but I was more interested in basketball at the time. Why? It was more my sport, kind of, I had more, I was kind of better at it, it's basketball and I wanted to practice more on it and try to make it to the pros if I had a chance. The other offensive greats we've looked at in this series found a way to pressure the rim while also getting to their sweet spots. Kareem had his sky hook, Jordan had mid-range pull-ups, but Curry short-circuited the entire system. He didn't park himself in the most valuable spot like Shaq, and he didn't charge toward the basket like LeBron. Instead, he turned the three-point line into his own personal layup. From 2016 to 2019, Curry made nearly 50% of his open threes, that's the equivalent of a 73% two-point shot, efficiency that only incredible rim finishers can generate. But instead of being limited to the restricted area to produce this kind of efficiency, he could manufacture his long-range layups from all over the court. Curry became a real-life video game, a custom player with 99 shooting who started spamming threes from 28 feet away like there was a glitch in the Matrix. It was only slightly better for defenders when they were a touch closer. At 4-6 feet away, he made 43% of his threes, the equivalent of a mere 65% from two-point range. Other players have shot at comparable percentages, but Curry set himself apart with the obscene volume at which he could manufacture these attempts. It starts with his release speed, which is the quickest that ESPN Sports Science has ever clocked, around four-tenths of a second on some of these shots. In less time than it takes to, say, basketball, Curry ends his dribble and has the shot out of his hands. So instead of using verticality to keep his shot away from defenders, he used speed so they can't close the distance horizontally. This is how he can get his shot off from all over the court, even when guarded by bigger defenders. Curry even has crazy release speed in catch-and-shoot situations, taking around two-thirds of a second to grab a pass and turn it into a shot. And this could be even faster on perfect passes because he tried to catch it while he was squared up to the basket, ready to shoot. By the way, his dad, Del, also had some lightning-quick releases back in the 90s, although at 6-foot-2, Steph was even shorter, so his release speed was even more important. Another reason he's able to generate so many of these quality threes is his range. He's comfortable shooting his normal shot out to at least 30 feet, which means there are a few hundred square feet on the court where an open Steph Curry three is highly efficient offense. There have been scientific breakdowns of this as well, and the key to his long-range accuracy is minimal knee bend, which limits the variability in his shot mechanics. This creates a consistent energy transfer off the floor, where Curry flexes his wrist harder at the end of the movement to control the distance, giving him an incredibly stable shot from well beyond the line. Another skill that separated Steph from so many great shooters was his handle. His dribbling sets up so many of these shots by helping him probe for superior shooting spots on the floor. He had all the building blocks of a great ball handler. He loved little in-and-outs like this. This one creates a ton of space into the step-back, and it turns into free throws. And he had the full arsenal of through-the-legs, behind-the-back crossovers, or sharp crosses in front of his body to shake defenders. He liked to throw combinations. A second behind-the-back bounce buckles Kevin Durant and leads to a layup. And this was more audacious, an in-and-out into the behind-the-back, in traffic, and the sweet finish for an and-one. He blended hesitations with sharp, hard dribbles, staying over his center of gravity to accelerate in any direction. Steph didn't really lean much on these moves, keeping weight in both feet for quick changes of direction after his dribble, which meant he could do this on the run right there and create a little opening from deep to pull up from. The threat of these pull-ups from anywhere opened up his drives. He looks at the hoop and brings that right hand toward the ball like he's going to shoot, which fakes out James Harden and sets up penetration into the paint. And sometimes he could lift defenders off their feet by merely looking at the basket. Kevin Love lunges at him, which gets Curry free, but again he can't finish it. Steph's small stature made finishing in traffic a tricky endeavor. He destroys Gerald Henderson, but another wing sliding over alters his shot. This time he uses that fake step back by looking at the hoop, but he sees traffic in the lane and pulls up early, which ends up in a rejection from behind. These little pull-ups could be an effective counter. Love crowds him so tightly he only needs a first step, and a soft banker from about eight feet does the trick. Curry wasn't lightning quick, but with defenders so far out worried about his shot, he could get a step, and once he turns the corner here he picks it up for a long-distance scoop. Most attackers take an additional dribble in these spots to explode upwards, but he couldn't win verticality contests, so he relied on ambidextrous touch. These longer, higher-arcing layups aren't quite as easy as taking it all the way to the cup, but Curry's outlier hand-eye coordination helped him convert these kinds of finishes regularly. When there wasn't a second defender, that handle let him attack guards and flip up little shots like this. And some of these were just incredible finishes, making circus shots look like no big deal. These could even work against shot blockers, a crossover into a shot fake that freezes the defender briefly and sets up the huge teardrop off the glass. This is similar to what we saw from Larry Bird in Episode 4, where creative, adaptive skill offsets a lack of verticality. Curry brings the ball far away from the defender and his body, and has the concentration to take one in the face and still finish. Since defenses couldn't give Steph any airspace on ball screens, big men often switched onto him, so when he was able to get a step, he could use his body to protect himself from larger shot blockers. This came in two forms, he could either angle back into the path of the defender, or when a shot blocker was in pursuit, he could decelerate and create contact. Despite weighing around 190 pounds, he could take it right at much bigger players sometimes, and these moments where he embraced physicality on hard drives not only helped him finish, but gave him a respectable free throw rate for someone who relied so much on shooting and ball skills. Curry's bag of tricks made him a pretty good rim finisher, and an especially good one for a point guard. Tony Parker is the historical gold standard among little guys, but Steph wasn't too far off in terms of volume or efficiency. Sometimes he'd mix in mid-range shots, stopping on a dime on one of these drives, but only about 10% of his offense came off of two-pointers outside of 10 feet like this. Curry's style organically bypassed the mid-range because he was either hunting for threes, half of his offense came from downtown, or driving by defenders who chased him far away from the basket. Steph took three-point hunting to a new level, becoming more dangerous after passing it, which brings us to the fourth and final reason he generated so many great attempts, his off-ball movement. Many great shooters run around without the ball, but Curry took the art to a new level. His most notable contribution to the field was the relocation shot, where he'd pass it and then immediately run out to the three-point line for a catch-and-shoot triple. Being so dangerous with a live dribble made so many of these possible. He could attack off the bounce for a pull-up or finish into traffic, but Steph passed it so he could just keep looking around for higher-percentage shots even without the ball. Remember, big men often switched out onto him, and they weren't used to clinging to their marks after a pass, and those brief lulls created more 24-foot layups for the human torch. Of course, Curry had all the classic off-ball routes too, curling off screens right into a bomb, and he was a master at using picks, walking defenders right into his teammate and jutting out the other side for open looks. When teams overplayed the topside to take away the three, he had incredible feel for slipping backdoor. And then a minute later, that backdoor sets up a counter-cut, back out to the three-point line, and that's just wrong. If you're interested in more Curry cuts and the power of off-ball movement, there's an entire video about it on this channel. In addition to having every off-ball move in the book, Steph just never stopped moving, which basically made him a threat to score all the time. And because he ran around so much, Curry was an all-time great endurance athlete, training not just his lungs, but his nervous system to be able to stroke these shots on autopilot even with fatigued legs. Despite this atypical approach, all of this made him one of history's great scorers, and Curry authored the greatest scoring regular season ever, becoming the only player in the three-point era to lead the league in scoring volume and in scoring efficiency. Of course, the possessions where Curry wasn't scoring had an enormous effect as well, because Steph required unique defensive attention that the league had never seen. After his record-setting regular season in 2016, Curry hit a rough patch in the playoffs, quite literally, spraining his MCL. He returned a few weeks later, and while his numbers were still good, they were a step down from his blazing regular season performance. The Cavs wanted to be physical with Curry in the finals, bumping him away from the ball whenever they had the chance, with the intention of wearing him down. Big Men chipped him when he ran by, and Curry's man harassed him while nearly ignoring the on-ball action. The goal was to take away Steph's threes and force his teammates to make them. And these Curry rules of physically face-guarding him while a second defender also put a body on him led to 11 fewer touches per game for Steph, denting his scoring volume in the process. When Curry had the ball, they jumped his screens hard or simply trapped him so he was forced to give it up. And this led to wide-open shots, but Steph's teammates shot a chilly 28% from downtown with him on the court in the finals. By the way, other teams mimicked these tactics in the ensuing years, and Curry responded by gaining some muscle to help absorb this kind of physical load. So that Cleveland defense had an effect, but Steph also lost some of his rhythm and lateral quickness by playing through pain and some stiffness after that injury, and his normal ability to punish big men on some of these switches was noticeably absent at times in that series. He wasn't sharp handling some of those Cavalier traps, throwing a few lazy passes, and turnovers were a problem for him in general. Even with fantastic ball handling, he could be a bit sloppy at times, and his dribbling aggression came with some risks. Whether this was more rust or game planning, Curry's playoff scoring wasn't quite as otherworldly as his regular season stampedes, which still made him an all-time level scorer, just not an outlier. So much of defending Curry is about what's happening away from the action, and that kind of defensive attention leads to open shots for the Warriors. This is Curry's legendary gravity, pulling extra defenders into his orbit even when he didn't have the ball. And this is a sizable part of his offensive impact, drawing the defense away from his teammates as they freak out about his shooting. The price to pay for devoting so many resources to stopping Steph's scoring was wide-open layups at the hoop while defenses fixated on Curry. And people often point out that these defenders are merely confused, which is true because guarding Curry creates confusion. The margin for error is minuscule. Sometimes it's not even confusion, the Jazz devote the entire weak side to keeping an eye on Curry, and even with three defenders, they will concede a Draymond Green triple before losing Steph. Some gravity is more subtle. LeBron would normally be closer to the block on the weak side, but he's whispering sweet somethings in Steph's ear in the corner. Here's some relocation gravity, where none of these defenders are even thinking about closing out to Klay Thompson, one of humanity's best shooters of the round ball. And sometimes defenders start anticipating what to do, and that leads to more layups. These kinds of plays are exactly how a so-called jump-shooting team can lead the league in field goal percentage at the rim. We noted last episode how Curry made life easier for Duran, and nothing symbolizes this better than the second quarter of the 2017 Finals, where Curry parted the seas for him not once, but twice in transition. Steph's shooting accuracy changed the rules on the fast break, where defenders prioritized him over guarding the ball at times. The traditional approach of sprinting back to the paint didn't work with him because they ended up leading to practice shots. Reggie Miller was the first player to regularly run to the three-point line in transition, but Curry couldn't be given any airspace from inside 30 feet, so he could find cracks to exploit when defenses weren't set. This should be a layup here because Durant prioritizes Curry, but he also loses contact with Steph, and so it's a super efficient open three. This is exactly why you'll see defenders run to the line with Steph, leaving the paint wide open for a ball handler. You'll notice Klay has a gravitational pull on defenders too, and this made the two of and particularly in screening actions, where defenders are still accustomed to chasing Thompson around screens, and any brief lapse leaves one of the two best shooters ever uncovered. Here Curry turns this cut into a screen, his man keeps going to Klay, and the often stationary James Harden is left sealed off and it's a layup. When defenses wisen up to his back picks like this, Curry can then fake these screens, slipping out to his personal ATM for some more cash. So then defenders remind themselves, always stay with Steph, always stay with Steph, and that glues defenders to him while his teammates practice more layups. He was also a nasty little screener, because smaller players tend to get away with additional contact and movement as part of their natural grappling away from the action. Oh, by the way, Curry could pass too. While his teammates were usually piling up assists from his off-ball movement, he could send it home himself for wide open layups. Too wide open, some might say. Steph's combination of movement and ball handling meant he could flow from a cut, to a drive, to a kick-out to feed his teammates. And his release speed helped him turn an off-the-dribble threat into a quick delivery for two. All of his supergiant gravity in transition opened up passing lanes as well. And it was the same story setting up for a deep pull-up. Three jazz are pulled into his orbit, and it's high-percentage offense at the hoop. Curry had good vision in general. He's probing for a pull-up, but snaps off a live dribble pass instead, and he hit a bunch of these little creases in the middle of the floor in transition. Here's another quick trigger pass off the bounce. This time he whips it left-handed, although Klay wasn't really in the mood for a layup apparently, so it turns into a right-handed drive and kick from Curry. Kick-out passes were actually a bit of an adventure for him because of how small he was. He couldn't throw it over the top, so deflections were an issue. And when he probed deeper, size could swallow up his passing angles and clog his outlet valves. When he kept his dribble alive and had cleaner sightlines, these turned into open threes. But he could also dribble himself into a forest of trees, where he couldn't really see the best pass. The top of the key is wide open here, and yet it's another deflection. He could get into the paint and find laydown passes when help came over, but accuracy could also be a problem on some of these deliveries. Some of Steph's passing at the rim was a bit wild like this. Note this was a no-look attempt, and Curry mixed in his fair share of lookaways to make up for that lack of passing height. It also helped that he varied his deliveries, mixing hook passes with bouncers and little two-handed drop-offs like this. Some of these were bold ideas. This is a Magic Johnson heater past J.R. Smith's ear, and this play shows reflexes and court awareness, spinning to find a teammate in tight quarters. However, some bold ideas bordered on reckless, throwing errant behind-the-back passes, or just wavering into sloppiness on basic deliveries, leading to more turnovers. Out of spread pick and roll, he could deliver most passes. This is a basic strong side help off the shooter a pass away, and here's a skip pass where the weak side defender slides over to help, and it's another Draymond three. It was actually rare for Curry to get downhill with this classic two-on-one, because he usually just took a three against coverages like this. He could certainly hit the opposite side shooter, but it was more common to see a second defender jump him while his teammates rolled to the basket. This is a bit late, because it was tricky throwing these around bigger defenders. On this play, the big man gives him space, so it's a much easier completion before the paint help arrives. Compare that to this coverage, where two huge defenders are involved, one pressuring Curry on the ball, while Durant sits in front of the roller, and it's a different pass. Another thing that changes his pick and roll dynamic is where many of these screens are set. Curry's near the logo here, and so it takes longer to hit screeners who aren't shooting threats when they roll. This time, it's staggered screens, and again, size makes it uncomfortable enough to bypass Durant for a short roll pass, but he uses the look away and throws it out of bounds. So Steph saw most valuable passes on screen and rolls, it was often just a matter of finding a delivery angle so he could send it home. Again, this meant using those whip passes and hook passes that he loved with both hands, and he sprinkled in more audacious lobs or soft deliveries as well. Many teams simply trapped the Curry pick and roll just to get the ball out of his hands, and that could stall the offense a touch, if Harden recovered on time here, this wouldn't be an open KD jumper. Which is where Draymond's short roll passing became so critical, gashing teams in these four-on-threes. Green's ball handling, high-end vision, and speed made him a phenomenal fit next to Curry, where he could pick apart defenses as a role man when opposing teams tried to neuter Steph's three-point shooting. A great passing hub like Draymond is an ideal partner for off-ball workhorses like Curry, he can capitalize on Steph's gravity from the top, make extra passes after Curry is trapped, or collapse the defense with the ball himself, setting up arguably the greatest perimeter finisher ever. This helped those Warriors teams put together phenomenal regular season offenses, and while they were still great in the playoffs, they fell back a little, commensurate with Curry's drop in scoring we saw earlier. Keep in mind though, teams sold out to take away his scoring, so that huge off-ball effect made him a playmaking machine, estimates of his shot creation land in the top 15 of all time, and it's hard to say how well that even accounts for his unique ability to stretch defenses. So there are lingering questions about his offensive impact in the playoffs, but before we get to those, we need to look at just how effective he was on the defensive end. Oh, this is my mic? Yeah, speak into the mic, yeah. I thought you were doing the Ricky Bobby thing, like putting it in my face. No, no, this is my mic. I gotcha. I'm feeling great, but I'm excited about the finals, we got four wins to go, so hopefully get it done. While the Warriors dynasty set a new standard for offensive excellence, they were also a high-end defensive team. As one of the best defenders of the 21st century, Draymond Green led Golden State's switchable intelligence scheme on that end. And because the Warriors surrounded Curry with four players who were 6'6 or taller most of the time, it was common practice for teams to target Steph in the playoffs. The Cavs did this in bursts during all of their final matchups, looking for a switch onto the dangerous Kyrie Irving or the much larger LeBron James, who could use his size to back Curry down into the post and force help or score himself. In the 2018 Western Finals, Houston hunted Curry even more since attacking weak spots with James Harden or Chris Paul was a core part of their offense. This strategy adds to Curry's physical wear and tear, potentially slowing down his attack and getting him into foul trouble. But otherwise it wasn't enormously effective because Curry held up pretty well against even the game's best isolation scorers. Kyrie gives up on this one with Green finally shifted over. And against Harden there were strong moments. He jabs at the ball twice and disrupts him, then crowds him and takes one in the ear for an offensive foul. Steph was pesky on the ball like this, using his hands quite a bit, the left hand slows down the driver, the right hand then controls him a little, and he was small enough to get away with this contact. He was actually really physical in general on defense, actively pawing at the ball and bodying up ball handlers with his hands high when they drove like this. He didn't have incredible lateral quickness, he goes to put some weight into Irving here and turns into a matador trying to recover. But he wasn't smoked off the dribble too frequently because of how active he was on the balls of his feet, his willingness to get physical, and his reaction time. Notice the really short steps, which helps him stay balanced so he can quickly change directions with the ball handler. You can see how sharp his reflexes are here, sliding with Harden's crossover immediately, bodying him hard, and then he smothers a shot at the end. Kyrie loved attacking the ball at the end of a move like this, he's a bit behind on this one but ends up with a late strip. And his hands were active on the outside as well, preventing a step back attempt on this play. Steph was often trying to overcome a size disadvantage, he wasn't going to throw off many shots vertically, so attacking the rock low like this gave him a chance, even if it led to some fouls in the process. That hand-eye coordination helped him connect on plenty of these when he was balanced and had a clear look at the ball, catching Leather not once but twice in this sequence. He's completely beaten here, again grabs an arm to slow down the dribbler, and the hands save the play from behind. Because he was only 6'2, Kyrie was a mismatch for bigger players on the block. On this one he tries to hold off LeBron, but James is too powerful and so it's a foul. His countermeasure for this was to front the post hard and deny an entry pass in the first place, and because he had a high-revving motor, he was pretty successful with this technique. Here he sits down to take away the entry, then works hard to track the ball at a different angle and comes up with a steal. The Warriors had other techniques to protect him, pre-switching Kyrie here so he wouldn't be involved in the pick and roll, and then Draymond sees a potential mismatch and breaks up the post pass beautifully. Steph could also get really physical with screeners, which helped avoid a switch and kept everyone on their original assignment. Although crowding potential screeners and getting handsy with them opened up a few back door cuts, and when Steph overplayed off-ball shooters like this, he occasionally received a taste of his own medicine. Unsurprisingly he was also physical chasing players off the ball, he could lean over his toes and get off balance like that, and again here's some hand fighting and subtle holding to stay connected, and then on the ball more of the usual jabbing at the rock and sliding to stay in front of the dribbler. When guarding the ball handler, he could power through some of these screens sometimes to stay with his man, and even if that didn't work, he was quite good about staying connected to the screener on a switch using his bag of tricks. I'd say he was generally good navigating ball screens, here steering the dribbler away from the screen by design, then activating those hands on the roll pass for another steal. On this one he steps up in front of the screen nicely to avoid it, and that contains everything well, although Curry gambles for a steal and that exposes the Warriors in the paint. He actually rarely took overt gambles like that, he was selective about selling out for these sneak attacks, and his ability to play passing lanes was based more on anticipation and reflexes than on risk taking. This again made him similar to Bird, their best defensive strength was reading these kinds of passes and timing up interceptions without taking needless chances. This is a 3 on 1, and he spots the passer's eyes to make an incredible save off the lob, and then going the other way, turns it into two points himself. Steph was also dangerous sneaking around outlet passes like this, and yeah that's probably going in and it is time to dance on the floor. Here's one off the inbounds, and this time Curry wants to bring Klay into the party, and that team was just unfair. Between his active hands and his ability to jump passes like this, Curry landed in the 93rd percentile historically in steals during these years. He was also smart about timing up his double teams, and what's key here is that he keeps going after the first effort, saving a layup with the extra help, and he rarely missed these second and third efforts on a defensive sequence, flowing from one responsibility to the next. That's a decent closeout to end the possession, although I wouldn't say he was that effective closing out because his size made jumpers easier for shooters. His small stature was a limiting factor on paint rotations too, where he could slide into position but couldn't offer much resistance at the rim. Steph was generally on point when he needed to rotate into the lane like this, and that's far better than being bigger but late to arrive or blowing the assignment. Here's a nice example where he's early to help on the pick and roll, then gives extra effort to tag a cutter when the ball switches to the other side of the court. But still, he added basically zero rim protection on high leverage plays where he needed to plug up the backline, and despite his consistent effort, he had an occasional attentional lapse, focusing in on the ball too much and falling a few steps out of position. Impact metrics actually view him as a solid positive defender, although his overall playoff numbers are far more pedestrian than his incredible regular season stats. But even if injuries weren't the reason why, his missed times still skewed these impact numbers. His teammates were able to inflate their plus-minus by playing weaker teams in early rounds, but Steph's plus-minus was accrued against championship-level opponents in the later rounds. If we calculated the numbers after Curry returned from his injuries, giving his teammates the same opponents as him, suddenly Steph looks like one of the most impactful playoff performers on record, even with a clear drop in 2016 compared to his surrounding seasons. And at least to me, that's a compelling signal that the extra defensive attention he received still shredded defenses, even if his scoring dipped as a result. Furthermore, in larger regular season samples, his numbers were still incredibly impressive against strong defenses when compared to weak ones, maintaining most of his volume and efficiency relative to other great players. There's also some evidence that he'll ramp up his scoring more when he shares the floor with weaker finishers. His volume with Durant and Thompson on the bench resembles video game levels, and these numbers are similar in a much larger regular season sample. Throughout all of these permutations, Golden State's efficiency with Curry on the court remained elite while they crushed their opponents. I do still have some concerns about his durability. Attacking him on defense and wearing down his legs seem to have some effect, but Curry's gravity is a constant phenomenon that made him, arguably, the most scalable offensive weapon in basketball history, making life easier for basically any other offensive star. He doesn't have the typical signs of an impact defender, but he also doesn't look like a negative on that end either. Instead, his incredible value comes almost entirely from his otherworldly shooting, off-ball impact, and that on-ball playmaking, which is a one-of-a-kind package that combined to make Steph Curry, perhaps, the best offensive player in NBA history. For more historical content and to support this channel, head over to patreon.com slash thinking basketball and check out Thinking Basketball, the book, on Amazon. That goes deeper on a number of ideas explored in this series. There are also longer discussions on many of these players on the Thinking Basketball podcast, and if you're curious about stats from this video, there's an entire stat series on this channel. Otherwise, thanks so much for watching. I hope you enjoyed this one and that wherever you are, you're having a great day.