How Finland Avoids A Russian Invasion

This is the border between Finland and Russia. It's 1340 kilometres in length, and alongside this border are multiple military bases. Biggest of all, though, is this Russian military base, located just 60 kilometres from Finland's current border. Interestingly, this formerly abandoned base sits on land that was once part of Finland. This base was reopened in 2015 and is said to now host over 3,000 soldiers and a rumoured intelligence unit with the capability to track military, maritime and air movements, among other things. What this base represents is Russia's expansion into the Arctic, an expansion that's been going on for years but hasn't been seen as a threat to Finland until now. See, historically, relations between these two nations have been a calculated play of diplomacy, compromise and sometimes tension, to avoid the unthinkable. But with the recent events in Ukraine, Russia's actions towards non-native states in the Eastern Bloc has become a serious concern for Finland. After all, Russia didn't take long to mobilise their own ground troops along their border with Ukraine before a heavy invasion. Even if the Al-Qurdi base isn't used to gather troops for the 60-kilometre trek into Finland, it's a convenient launch site should the Kremlin decide to retaliate against any Western powers by using Finland as a target. I know it sounds absolutely insane, but if Putin's invasion into Ukraine has taught observers anything, it's that he's willing to do whatever it takes to ensure his vision of a strong, non-Western-influenced Eastern Bloc is realised. For the longest time, nobody thought Finland would seriously be part of that vision, but it's looking a little more likely with every statement about NATO and Finland the Kremlin makes. After all, Finland, despite having close ties with NATO, are not members of it, so they don't benefit from the collective defence article. But if that's the case, then why has Russia not invaded Finland yet? Well, the answer lies in how Finland has handled Moscow since the last invasion. You see, back in 1939, the Soviet Union was testing its strengths, so Joseph Stalin insisted that the Finnish border be moved back 16km to create a buffer zone against any German attacks on Leningrad, which is now St. Petersburg. He also demanded a bunch of islands that would be used as naval bases. Finland said no, so the Red Army invaded with half a million soldiers, and many comparisons can be drawn from this war to the current war with Russia and Ukraine. But anyway, things ended with Finland eventually having to give up 11% of its territory, though it remained independent and fought the Russians again during World War II. Since then, however, the two have enjoyed a stable relationship, and Finland has worked hard not to pick a fight. Instead, they've used other ways to grow closer to the West while keeping the Kremlin relatively calm. For one, back when they were bound by the 1947 Paris Peace Treaties and couldn't join the EU, NATO, the European Free Trade Association, which was like the EU for people who weren't part of the EU, or any other organisation that Moscow felt leaned in favour of the West, Finland sidestepped the red tape. But how? By setting up Finnafta, or the They also set up a dummy version of Comicon, or Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, an economic organisation for Soviet states set up by Stalin. Finland never used this dummy organisation, but they did use Finnafta to engage with the European Free Trade Association and further build connections with westward countries like Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, and the United Kingdom. They also entered a neutrality deal with the Soviet Union that kept them out of harm's way and under the radar during the Cold War. Finland even rejected funding from the Marshall Plan, an American initiative that sought to rebuild Europe and fund democracy in the region. Once the 90s rolled around, Finland was free and joined the European Union in 1995, back when Russia was too weak from the fall of the Soviet Union to really oppose them. This not only boosted the Finnish economy tremendously and created trade and strategic relations, but it gave them a secret, not-so-secret weapon that is pretty important, and keep that in mind because I'll get to that just a bit later. But anyway, modern-day relations between the two countries consist of the presidents visiting each other and playing ice hockey while discussing world-changing topics, mostly because they Finland has repeatedly shut down any rumours of attempts to join NATO in the past and destabilising peaceful relations with Russia is enough of a reason. Or at least, it used to be. Finland has spoken out against a senseless war with Ukraine, as well as how they plan to navigate the new climate in Europe. President Sauli Niinistö has been pretty open with his opinion on joining NATO given the political tensions. Earlier this year, before the invasion, he stated that Finland's room to manoeuvre and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership should we ourselves so decide. After Putin invaded Ukraine, the president's stance hardly changed. He even put the decision in the hands of the Finnish leadership and people, saying it's up to Finland. So, what do the Finnish people think? Well, it depends on when you ask them. Back in 2014, after Russia annexed Crimea, only 18-21% of the general Finnish public thought Finland needed to join NATO as a means of protection. Things were pretty chill. Fast forward to January 2022 when Russian troops surrounded their shared borders with Ukraine, Finnish support for joining NATO jumped to 28%. Fast forward again to March of 2022, nearly 53% of the country believed joining NATO was a good idea. Clearly, there is a growing trend to join NATO pushed by fear. And when you look at it, this decision would maybe make sense. Finland is sort of already part of NATO without actually being part of it. See, they already conduct military exercises with NATO and allow NATO troops to do the same within their borders. They often share military intelligence with the Treaty Group and Finnish leaders have reiterated that they are part of the West. Finland is also part of NATO's Partnership for Peace program, which creates diplomatic ties between NATO members and non-NATO Euro-Atlantic states. These states can share and contribute to defence planning and military-to-military training, cooperation and exercises. Along with Ukraine and four other nations, Finland also has a Special Enhanced Opportunity partnership with NATO, which basically means they can participate in NATO military security operations based on their capabilities. Finland even sent troops to Afghanistan in 2015 as part of NATO's Operation Resolute Support, which was meant to train, assist and advise Afghan security forces who fought against terrorist cells in the region. So, they basically already have their foot in the door. Except they don't. And when you look deeper into the Kremlin's words and the careful analysing the Finnish leadership has done over the years, you'll see why. Here is a quote from Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Sakharova that might put things into perspective. Quote, it's obvious that if Finland and Sweden join NATO, which is first of all a military organisation, it will entail serious military political consequences, which would require retaliatory steps by the Russian Federation. But to really knock this point home, we need to go back to 2016. This is two years after the Finland. Understandably, Finland had increased military cooperation with NATO after what happened in Crimea. In response to this, however, Putin said, quote, What do you think we will do in this situation? We moved our forces back, 1500km away. Will we keep our forces there? How will they assure the safety and independence of their own country is the Finns' choice. Undoubtedly, we appreciate Finland's neutral status. Quote end. Despite all of this, Finland appears calm about the whole situation. They dismissed any comments about retaliatory measures as simple statements. And you know, the Kremlin hasn't been known to follow through on such threats. They promised retaliation when Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania joined NATO, but that was a bluff. Even if their diplomatic tip-toeing doesn't work out, Finland is not defenceless. They have the benefit of being an active member of the European Union, and here's where the secret, not-so-secret weapon comes in. If you're thinking that the European Union is just an economic arrangement, then you're almost right. See, the EU has this cause, known as the Mutual Defence Cause. And this cause, in particular, might be a major reason for the Kremlin's reluctance to invade Finland as it did with Ukraine. The cause states that if a member state is faced with any armed aggression or is the victim of a terrorist attack, then other member states have an obligation to aid and assist according to UN charter guidelines. It might not be as set in stone as NATO's collective defence cause, but it shows that Finland would be a force to be reckoned with, even if the 1939 Soviet invasion didn't get the message across enough. So, while the Kremlin's words might be frightening, Finland has been navigating these waters for a while. And while Ukraine serves as a reason for other Eastern European states to scramble to NATO protection, Finland is still taking its time, considering all of its options in avoiding a Russian invasion and most of all maintaining as much peace as they currently can. But that's it for this video, thank you for watching and I'll see you in the next one.