Why did Iran target US bases in Jordan? Sina Azodi explains

And joining me now live from Washington is Sina Assoudi. He's the director of the Middle East Studies program at George Washington University. Always good to have you on the program, Sina. The big question here, is this it? Is this done? Or is this now going to lead to a major escalation? I believe that it is really up to the American side whether they want to respond to the Iranian strikes. If they decide to attack, my concern is that Iranians will be pressured and they will be left with no choice to respond to the American attacks. And then we will be back in full military confrontation again. I think at this point, both of them have the opportunity to claim that they did not back down. They attacked. They retaliated against each other. But at this point, I think it's really up to the United States whether it wants to respond to the Iranian attacks or not. What do you make of this U.S. claim that Iran was preparing to launch rockets with sea mines from Larrick Island? Is that a probable thing to suggest that they were in fact doing that? It's quite possible. Why? At this point, because Iranians are seeing the American attempts to open another shipping lane through the southern shipping lanes as a threat, as an attempt by the American side to erode their control over the Strait of Hormuz. So I would not be surprised if they wanted to assert their power and control over the Strait. And by laying mines or attacking ships, they wanted to demonstrate that on the American side to what they claim as a preemptive strike. So it's quite possible, maybe not. But I would not be surprised if they were actually panning on it. It seems like we've gone from a war of narratives, Iran saying the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the U.S. saying the Strait of Hormuz is open, Iran saying, well, you know, we're preparing to demine the Strait, whereas the U.S. says, no, we have already demined the Strait. There are no mines left. And now this has now turned into this military escalation. So who's right here and who actually holds control over the Strait of Hormuz? Is it Iran or is it the U.S.? Well, you could say both of them are actually in control because there is a blockade by the Iranian side. They do attack ships that are trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz without Iran's authorization. And also the United States has imposed a blockade on the Iranian economy to force them to capitulate. But I also think there is another dimension to this. When President Trump says, you know, that the mines have been cleared, the Strait of Hormuz is open, there is the domestic side of it where the president really is really trying to calm the energy markets, keep the prices down, inflation ahead of midterm elections in the United States. Iranian intention is to drag this on and try to defeat the United States domestically in the midterm elections. And that, I believe, is their strategy, whereas President Trump obviously is trying to push this narrative that everything is OK, calm the energy markets. And so this is why we're seeing not only a military exchange, but there is a war of narratives, as you pointed out. Do you think that Iran was planning on sooner or later striking Jordan and that these strikes on Lerik Island just gave them the opportunity or the excuse of doing that? I believe so. I will make the case that Iranian war plans were designed, were far in advance. This is this war that Iran has been waging. It was not just planned in the past six months. This is something that the Iranians have been planning for, I believe, the past two decades. Now, obviously, their capabilities have been enhanced over time. But this is I don't believe that this is anything new. And I believe that while the U.S. war plans did not go accordingly, the regime change didn't happen. Khomeini was replaced by another Khomeini. I believe that the Iranian war plans went more accurately than the American side. Sina, I just want to point out the video here that we're looking at. This is the actual launch of those Iranian missiles on Jordan, according to the IRGC, which released this video. So that is what we're looking at. These eight missiles, according to Jordan's armed forces, that were launched and then intercepted in Jordanian airspace. But if we are at this point now where Iran wanted to launch, wanted or was at least prepared to launch on Jordan, why Lerik Island? Why did the U.S. strike specifically Lerik Island? What's the significance of that place? Well, I believe it's where Iran has dispersed its assets to control the Strait of Hormuz. We have to keep in mind that the U.S. has been targeting Iranian assets in the southern shores of the country that allow Iran to monitor and surveil the Strait of Hormuz and the ships that pass through it. So what the American side is trying to do is not only to degrade Iran's ability to strike ships, but also to surveil and monitor the ships that pass through there. So I'm not surprised that the U.S. is trying to do is doing this, because if we go back to the month of July, this is also where the U.S. was striking targets. The entire southern shores of Iran were also on the list of American targets. So I'm not surprised at all. Now, another aspect of what we're discussing here is, of course, the reports of a ship being struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. That is according to the U.K. Maritime Organization. That happened on Saturday. And then today you've got those U.S. strikes on Lerik Island and Iran launching strikes specifically on Jordan. I'm curious to understand why Jordan, why is Iran now targeting Jordan so far away when before, you know, they struck those Gulf countries? Has has Iran refrained from striking Gulf countries lately? I mean, just this week, this past week, we had, for example, delegations from Oman, delegations from Qatar, from Pakistan. All of them were in Tehran meeting with the Iranian foreign minister. Well, I think that Iranians certainly want to improve relations with the GCC countries as the GCC countries would ultimately want to improve their relations with Tehran. We have to keep in mind that these countries are immediate neighbors. Iran cannot live without its neighbors. And GCC countries cannot live without Iran in peace and prosperity. But Jordan is yet another case. Iran has not had good relations with the Jordanians, especially over Jordan's normalizing relations with the Israelis. That's we have to keep keep that in mind. And also, I would point out that over the course of this war, the six months war that we were in, Iranian targeting became more confident or the list of targets that Iranians chose, it to me, it signaled a kind of more confidence in their targeting. They started with GCC countries, as you pointed out, UAE, Qatar, even Omanis, the Saudis, and then the island of Diego Garcia, which ultimately failed. But still, and now we're seeing I believe this is the second or third time that the Iranians are targeting the American bases in Jordan just to make it clear to to the American side that Iranians will not contain themselves just to the GCC countries. And any American base in the region can can be a potential target. All right, Sina Assodi, the director of the Middle East Studies program at George Washington University. It's always a pleasure having you on the program and hearing your analysis, sir. Thank you so much.