Six months of Iran war: Conflict has changed Iran’s political strategy

Six months ago, the US and Israel launched a military offensive against Iran. The pressure was expected to weaken the country, perhaps expose the visions within it. Instead, the system changed from within. When the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed, he was replaced by another Khamenei. Mushtafa, his second son, had spent years in the shadows of the political and security establishments. His succession brought a more centralized leadership, less constrained by the competing currents that traditionally shape decision-making in Tehran. The war was fought over familiar fault lines, Iran's nuclear program, its missiles and its regional alliances. But Tehran introduced another geography. By declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed, it turned one of the world's most important energy routes into leverage. The nuclear file, missiles and regional influence remained unresolved. But the crucial waterway has increasingly shaped negotiations on ending the war. Iran's former strategy relied on layers of deterrence beyond its borders, designed in part to keep conflict away from its territory. That didn't work. This time was something different. Geography backed by missiles and drones, while it reorganizes a regional network that is weaker, but still capable of exerting pressure. Nowhere is that reversal clearer than in Lebanon. Hezbollah was once cornerstone of Iran's defenses, but it was weakened, and Tehran has increasingly found itself using its own military power to deter pressure on Hezbollah. Syria, once Iran's corridor to Lebanon, is now controlled by its opponents. Iraqi factions are more constrained. Yet Yemen showed that alliances can still widen the battlefield, with Ansarullah the Houthis applying pressure around Bab al-Mandab. Now Washington is targeting what Iran needs to sustain this new strategy. Money. They aim to squeeze oil revenues, shipping, and financial networks that turn exports into usable currency. Iran has decades of experience circumventing sanctions, but maintaining direct deterrence is expensive, particularly while fighting a war. Six months on, Iran's old strategy has been relatively damaged, but under fire, it's already constructing a replacement. Whether that becomes a lasting strategy or remains an improvised approach for surviving the conflict may depend on how and whether the war ends. Ali Hashim, Al Jazeera.