NTD Evening News Full Broadcast (March 22)

Welcome to NTD Evening News. Our top story tonight... A 48-hour warning to Iran. President Trump threatens major strikes if a key oil route isn't reopened. The latest on the escalation and what's at stake. How quickly will oil prices start falling after the war on Iran ends? We talk to an expert on the issue. The president orders ICE agents to assist at airports starting Monday. It comes in response to hours-long waits at airport security due to short staffing from Two Democrats joining Republicans today to advance the nomination of Senator Mark Wayne Mullen. Republican Senator Rand Paul voted against Mullen's nomination. Is the AI boom already heading toward a correction? With trillions pouring into the sector and revenues still catching up? One venture capitalist says it's not a question of if, but when. And Hawaii is experiencing the most severe flooding in over 20 years, but no fatalities reported so far. This is NTD Evening News, live from our global headquarters in New York City. Good evening and thank you for joining us tonight, I'm Don Ma. President Trump is escalating his warning to Iran, issuing a 48-hour ultimatum tied to one of the world's most critical oil routes. In a Truth Social post Saturday night, President Trump saying if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. will target and obliterate Iranian power plants, starting with the largest. The threat came after the president had suggested just a day earlier that the U.S. could begin winding down strikes. Iran responded to President Trump's warning with its own warning. Its parliament speaker says any attack on Iran's infrastructure would trigger strikes on energy facilities across the region. Iran's Revolutionary Guard also issuing a warning, saying companies connected to the U.S. could be completely destroyed if Washington targets Iranian energy sites. They added that energy infrastructure in countries that host U.S. bases could become targets as well. A coalition of more than 20 countries says it will ensure safe passage through the vital waterway. The Strait of Hormuz carries a large share of the world's oil, making the conflict there a major concern for global oil markets. Earlier this week, President Trump said he had no advanced knowledge of an Israeli strike on a major gas field shared by Iran and Qatar. He said further attacks there would depend on Iran's actions. Now, attention turns to whether Iran responds within that 48-hour window. And the U.S. government-confirmed satellite imagery shows top aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford is on its way to the Gulf of Suez in the northeast of Egypt. The USS Gerald Ford is the largest aircraft carrier in the U.S. military and has more than 75 aircraft and 5,000 sailors aboard. The ship was deployed for operations in the Caribbean before supporting Operation Epic Fury against Iran. It's been deployed for nine months. According to military blog 1945, the ship was recently undergoing repairs in Crete after a laundry room fire that spread to other areas of the ship. Reports also indicate other problems on the ship, perhaps due to its long deployment with minimal time for repairs. It's not clear if the ship will be rejoining Operation Epic Fury or is heading towards the Gulf of Suez for other reasons. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is warning that Iran threatens the entire world. He's urging global leaders to unite against what he calls a terrorist fanatic regime. As the conflict intensifies across multiple frontiers more. Benjamin Netanyahu made the remarks earlier today during a visit to southern Israel. He toured the site of an Iranian missile strike in Ahrad, addressing growing concerns about Iran's expanding reach. They fired an intercontinental ballistic missile on Diego Garcia. That's 4,000 kilometers. I've been warning all the time. They have now the capacity to reach deep into Europe. They already have fired on European country, Cyprus. They are putting everyone in their sights. His comments come as Iranian missile strikes continue to hit southern Israel. Drone footage show widespread damage after an overnight attack that injured dozens of people near Israel's nuclear site, including children. According to Israeli officials, it's the first time Iran has used long-range missiles in the conflict. It marks a notable escalation since joint U.S.-Israeli operations began late last month. Overnight President Trump said that if in 48 hours the Iranians don't open the Strait of Hormuz, that there will be strikes against the power grids in Iran. Will you participate in those strikes? And what do you think should happen next in this campaign? I think President Trump knows exactly what he's doing. And whatever we do, we do together and as far as possible in confidence. Missiles also struck Arad and Dimona yesterday, with Iran saying they targeted military and security installations in southern Israel. Netanyahu says Israel and the U.S. are pursuing two main objectives. One is to break completely their nuclear program, break completely their missile program, break completely their capacity to produce the components for both of these programs. We're well on our way in achieving it. We've also set a goal of creating conditions for the Iranian people to overthrow this tyranny that has tormented them and made life miserable. Meanwhile, the conflict is widening beyond Israel and Iran. Israeli helicopters were seen operating in northern Israel as Hezbollah launched rockets across the border. Israel has also carried out strikes in Lebanon, including targeting key infrastructure and border crossings. Iran warning that energy and oil infrastructure in the region will be targeted and destroyed if Iranian power plants are hit. It comes after President Trump threatened to obliterate Iran's power plants if Tehran does not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Monday night. Joining us now to discuss is retired Lieutenant Colonel Darren Gob, geopolitical strategist, former Blackhawk helicopter pilot and former U.S. Army battalion commander. Colonel, good evening. Thank you for joining us today. Now, Iran's warning energy and oil infrastructure could be legitimate targets here. How do you think this is going to play out? Well, first of course, we don't want to ever have to do that. That would be the first preference. But I'm not a big fan necessarily of actually carrying out such a threat because when you attack the energy infrastructure of Iran, ultimately what you're doing is attacking the Iranian people versus the government of Iran itself. So that's what we have to be very careful of. Now, if there is a targeted strike on some sort of electrical system or energy system that specifically impacts the ability of the mullahs, the dictators, to maintain power, that I could understand. But I think this is a careful road to walk when it comes to targeting those things where the people who actually suffer the most would be the citizen population, not necessarily the dictators who have planned for this for a while. What about Iran's threat back at the U.S.? How do you read that? Well, they're going to keep doing that. Regardless of what we say, they're going to keep trying to threaten something against the United States, whether it be our overseas bases or something in the homeland. That's going to continue. And what I'd be watching for is, will they be effective if they actually do it? For the most part right now, though, it seems like it's mostly talk. Plus, they've motivated a few lone wolf actors, as we have seen in the news in the last couple of weeks, but nothing that we've seen concerted across multiple locations. In the U.S. and in overseas, it's just, you know, it's somewhat, yeah, I guess the rocket and missile fire against multiple bases would be the best thing I would see that's a concerted effort by the Iranians right now. Most notable, of course, being that attack against Diego Garcia. So how is it still able to do these attacks? Because the U.S. has destroyed over 90 percent of its missile capability. So how is it making these threats and falling through with them, some of them? Well, first of all, yeah, we got to remember that we're talking about a 90 to 95 percent reduction in drone and missile volume across the region since this conflict started. So just because it's still happening doesn't mean it's happening at near the same level that it was in the first place. Second of all, the reason why it is capable of still happening is because the Iranians have had over four decades to create their country into a giant bunker. And they have missile launch facilities and drone launch facilities and various things that are necessary to accomplish this that have been buried underground very deeply. And it's not easy to get at all of this. And the nuclear facilities are the things that are buried the deepest. So you're just going to have to either wait until they do physically run out of these assets or you're going to have to continue to target things as you can when they show themselves, because there's still stuff that's buried way underground. They've had a long time to prepare for this conflict because they knew eventually it would have to happen. So you bring up the idea that you either have to wait until they run out of missiles physically. Do you think that day is becoming closer and closer as the U.S. destroy, as the U.S. destroys a number of its manufacturing facilities for missiles? Well, I certainly think it's coming closer. I just can't say that it's going to be within the next week or even maybe even two weeks. It could take a while because Iran just wants to be able to pull these things out and launch them over time. They're not going to go for massive strikes. They're going to go with enough continuous strikes to try to affect the greater Gulf region and specifically Israel, launch a missile, send them all into bunkers, occasionally get a strike or some sort, but they're not going to do something like what you saw at the beginning with 850 missiles at one time or whatever that number equivalent is of drones as well. So I think that's what they're going to do. They eventually do have to run out. It's just a question of how long will that truly take based on how long they've been stockpiling and any other surprises they may have, which that attack against Diego Garcia was a surprise to many outside of the community who worked on this threat for a long time, like myself. So, Colonel, can I just ask you from your vantage point right now, as you see it, how close is the U.S., how close is it to achieving its objectives in Iran? What are Iran's remaining military options? Well, and that's the thing is we've got to separate military objectives from other objectives that may not be necessarily totally military in scope. The ability to identify and list those military objectives, I would say that you're very close to achieving those if they are limited to things like nuclear capacity, missiles, drones, and then the logistics behind them and the greater ability to affect the region. What are the objectives, though, that happen after you could see a military peer victory come? That's the hard part is what's next for governance in Iran? What's their future look like? What do the Iranian people want to do to take advantage of this? This actually goes from being a military objective with limited scale to something a whole lot harder to define and see an end state for. So in terms of that, in terms of politically, can I just ask you, since you brought it up, what paths do you see for the future of the Iran government? Well, you know, one path that we don't want to see is that it just continues the same as it was before with different people, but same ideology. And they'll take the time if we were to leave to rebuild back into what they were over in however long that takes. Clearly trying to avoid that. Another one would be, do the Iranian people decide that they've had enough and they recognize the opportunity they've been handed? And has the IRGC, the goods force, and other internal security measures been degraded enough to the point where they can take this over and fix it for themselves? And even if not becoming a democracy is in the cards, maybe it's just being a good neighbor under some form of government that works for them again. Anywhere in there is some sort of a hybrid model that's tough to delineate. There's the Kurds up in the northwest. May they carve out a chunk of land for themselves and operate like they do in northeast Iraq remains to be seen. This is a very difficult thing to predict right now because there's just far too many players and unknowns. Okay, Colonel, just one final comment from you today. Can I just ask, what role do you think China and Russia have played in this conflict to this point? Well, what Russia is giving to Iran is intelligence to help them target. But they've also been, they've lost some too because of their relationship with Iran, because Iran supplied them with the other drones, which they've used in Ukraine. So there's a two-way street there where Russia is helping Iran, but the loss of Iranian assets is hurting their war effort to a point. It's not obviously going to stop them completely. With China, of course, remarkably, they've actually been a little bit quieter than some would have thought based on the fact that by losing Venezuela as a heavy crude and cheap oil export, and now potentially losing Iran as very similar, they reduced their oil supply. So the question will then become, how much does China try to influence whatever future government comes out in Iran to be able to keep the straits open and keep the oil supplies that are necessary to keep their economy alive? Right now, they've been a little bit quieter than even I would have thought given the situation and the risk that they're in. Yeah, that's a very interesting question as to what degree China will potentially influence the future Iranian government. Colonel, really great speaking with you today. Thank you for joining us. You too, Don. Thank you. Have a good weekend. The State Department today warning Americans worldwide to exercise increased caution. It applies globally, but especially to those in the Middle East. The security alert warns of groups supporting Iran targeting US diplomatic facilities, including outside the Middle East. Other US interests overseas, locations associated with the United States and as well as Americans throughout the world could also be targeted. The State Department says Americans abroad should follow the guidance in security alerts issued by the nearest US embassy or consulate. Enroll at step.state.gov to receive the latest security alerts if you're traveling abroad. The president orders ICE agents to assist at airports starting Monday. It comes in response to long wait lines at airport security due to short-staffing from the continued government shutdown. Stay with us after this break. My name is Brady. When I was born, my parents thought everything was OK. My mom and dad were so excited to take me home. I still get goosebumps telling this story. Several days in, his skin started to become very cold and clammy. We noticed that he had become blue around his mouth and something was just very off. We packed up as fast as we could. Brady stopped breathing twice on the way to the pediatrician. And that was one of the number one things that just haunts me to this day. I was born with a congenital heart defect called aortic coarctation. If my parents waited just one more hour to drive me to the hospital, I would not be here today. But thanks to research funded by the American Heart Association, I had heart surgery that saved my life. But not every kid is as lucky as me, which is why we need your help. Just call the number on the screen or go to helpheart.org. For only $19 a month, just 63 cents a day, you can help get people trained in CPR, get more hospitals certified in high quality cardiovascular care, and help fund the next medical breakthroughs to help save kids like me. When you donate to the American Heart Association, you're helping save lives like my son. And now my son is happy and healthy. Thanks to the support of people like you. When you call with your $19 a month, you'll get this really cool t-shirt as a thank you. Many children die from congenital heart defects. I can't wait to grow up to become a heart surgeon and fix baby's hearts. But until then, I'll keep helping the American Heart Association. So please join me. Just call the number on your screen or go to helpheart.org to become a monthly donor and help save lives. I'm Jonathan Lawson. If you're 50 to 85, please listen closely. The lock I want to talk to you about isn't the one on your door. 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The president wrote, quote, Democrats are endangering the USA by holding back the money that was long ago agreed to with signed and sealed contracts and all. He also said ICE will do a fantastic job, noting that White House Border Czar Tom Homan will be in charge of operations. Tom Homan speaking to CNN's State of the Union earlier today. This is about helping the men and women of TSA. They've lost several hundred employees. The lines are really slow because of the shutdown. This is about going to helping TSA do their mission and get the American public through that airport as quick as they can. While adhering to all the security guidelines and the protocols, we're simply there to help TSA do their job in areas that don't need their specialized expertise. Homan says he is working with the director of ICE and the active administrator at the TSA to create a plan. He said ICE agents are assigned at many airports across the country already and will take on non-significant roles like guarding exits, which then allows more TSA agents to cover more specialized roles, such as screening with x-ray machines. Homan also said he plans to prioritize the airports with the longest waits. Airport passengers have struggled with uncertainty over airport wait times. The unpredictability and fluctuating delays have led to frustration among air travelers. Here's more. PIX11 reported massive wait times Sunday morning for TSA screening. Lines stretched out of the terminal and into the parking garage. Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport faced a similar situation. Just got here earlier. Usually I would get here like an hour and a half before my flight. I got here two and a half hours just in case. In Atlanta, only four out of 18 security lanes were open. Long passenger wait lines curled and looped, extending throughout the airport. Some passengers suffered medical emergencies while online. Well, I flew in from Chicago Midway. It wasn't that bad. Flying out of Chicago, but just witnessing this, it's chaos. It's insanity, and it needs to be resolved at the federal level. But at Newark Liberty Airport in New Jersey, passengers were surprised by how smoothly they passed through security. Some arrived hours early expecting long wait lines, but were able to pass swiftly through security screening. The situation is not consistent everywhere, but some airports have reported up to three-hour delays. The Department of Homeland Security says over 400 TSA officers have quit amid the shutdown. These long security lines have been frustrating. It's been overwhelming, to say the least. You know, it's tiring to have to add extra time onto your travel. Some U.S. airports use private companies to handle security instead of TSA, so they are not affected by the dispute over TSA employees' lack of pay. In an ex-post on Saturday, Elon Musk offered to pay the missing salaries of TSA employees until the situation in Congress is resolved. The Senate today advancing Senator Mark Wayne Mullen's nomination to head the Department of Homeland Security. The Senate voted 54 to 37 in favor of advancing Mullen. Two Democrats joined all Republicans present to move the nomination forward. A final confirmation vote could come as early as Monday. Mullen has served in the Senate since 2023. Before that, he spent a decade in the House representing Oklahoma. Mullen gained support from Democratic Senator John Fetterman, who cast a key vote in committee. Senator Rand Paul voted no. President Trump earlier this month announcing Mullen would replace outgoing DHS Secretary Kristi Noem. Mullen says his leadership will be different and that his focus will be on empowering people. Efforts are underway to restore Cuba's power grid after it collapsed for the second time in a week. Pro-regime, non-profit groups based in the U.S. have traveled there, bringing assistance like solar panels and food. But some experts say this aid will only support Cuba's communist dictatorship. NTD's Sean Marshall has more. Cubans wander the streets and sit on stoops following a second night of blackouts in a week and the third power grid failure on the island so far this month. Cuban residents bang pots at night in protest of extended blackouts. Increased darkness at night brought about by the power failure provides citizens with more cover to protest, a dangerous act in a country ruled by an authoritarian regime. Clearly, pressure is mounting on the Cuban regime. Marco Rubio came out and said, we're looking for the next generation of Cuban leaders. OK, there's outrage amongst the Cuban people with these blackouts. Nothing is more fundamental to a functioning economy and a functioning government than keeping the lights on. Socialist and communist non-profit groups have been traveling to Cuba with aid and support items like solar panels, generators, food and medical supplies, some by plane out of Florida and some by boat out of Mexico. Some experts worry about their supplies going to the regime, which in turn gets sold back to the people. Some groups in question are Code Pink and The People's Forum, both part of the Neville Royce Singham network based in China. You know, Cuba has a track record of not delivering aid to those that need it. OK, it's a highly regulated, centralized economy that is not good at distributing aid to those in need. And there's an enormous need for a more, for a bigger role for the private sector. Ramon Saul Sanchez, leader of the Cuban exile group Democracy Movement, questions the process of delivery. He told CBS, We are not opposing them taking food to the Cuban people. We are questioning the fact that they are going to want to deliver the goods to the regime. The regime takes those goods and sells it to the very victims that are supposed to be helped. This type of, you know, global left wing activism handing out solar panels in Cuba. Look, it's a virtue signal. It sounds good. But the reality is solar panels will never be able to produce the type of energy at scale that Cuba needs. And it also draws parallels with a lot of anti-business and anti-consumer energy policy in a lot of blue states today that have the most highest, the highest cost electricity and gas in the U.S. Sanchez's recommendation is for the Trump administration to allow Cuban exiles to deliver aid directly by boat. Sean Marshall, NTD News. How quickly could oil prices start falling after the war on Iran ends? We talk to an expert on the issue after this break. Stay with us. See it at least once in your lifetime. Shen Yun. Get tickets now at ShenYun.com. 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That was one of his first words. He grew up so quick. He just surprised me every day. He's really smart. I really think he can be an astronaut president. But I'm gonna support him from wherever he wants to be. Whether you want to be a photographer, musician, whatever. As a father, I guess you don't focus on you. I put myself first. That's what a dad does. Life's daily battles are not meant to be fought alone. We're not powerless. So long as we don't lose sight of what's important. Don't be afraid to seize that moment to talk to your friends. Cloud, you okay? Because checking in on a friend can create a safe space. The first step on our new journey. Are you coming? Reach out to a friend about their mental health. Seize the awkward. It's totally worth it. President Trump threatened to obliterate Iran's power plants if Tehran did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Joining us to discuss is Rod Martin, political analyst, founder, and CEO of Martin Capital. So Rod, good evening. Thank you for joining us today. Can we just get your read on this situation? President Trump's warning here. Well, the president is doing what he always does in the art of the deal. It's just as plain as day. This has always been part of the strategy. It will continue to be. The reality is that the United States benefits more from the closure of the Strait than it might wish to let on. We saw this past week in particular, the Europeans absolutely refuse to guarantee their own oil supply, not even with combat forces, not even with fighter jets or warships, frigates to escort tankers, minesweepers to help clear out the Strait. So what does that do? It demonstrates that America is the indispensable ally in NATO. NATO is not actually reliable, and all their hectoring of the United States is a joke. And it gives Trump an opportunity to transfer the locus of maritime insurance from the city of London to Washington. So if the Strait remains closed just a little bit longer, the world isn't going to end from Trump's perspective. Meanwhile, we actually finished the job of making it impossible for the Iranians to continue mining the Strait, continue threatening commerce, and eventually, God willing, we actually caused the fall of the regime. So let me just add to your point, Rod. President Trump has previously said the U.S. doesn't need anybody when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz. He's almost asking for help just to see which countries is actually going to help the United States. And President Trump has said that he will remember, the U.S. will remember which countries answer to the U.S.'s help. But let me also get your thoughts on oil prices right now. How much of this price increase do you think is driven by actual supply disruptions versus speculation of the market? And is there an element of overreaction in your opinion? Oh, it's absolutely an overreaction. And it's going to come back down. You have several elements of this. Obviously, the Strait is closed more by the insurance situation than it is by the actual military situation. That much has been clear from the outset of the war. So once that's resolved, you bring down prices a bit. Once you get closer to the Strait being cleared, that's going to bring down prices a lot. The prices aren't crazy right now. They're actually quite a lot lower than they were at the outset of the Ukraine war. And those came down quite rapidly too. So what you really get to is once this war is concluded successfully, there's going to be no problem with transit through the Strait. So that brings 20% of the world's crude back online without any problem. A free Iran or even an Iranian regime that makes peace with the U.S. is suddenly going to be in a different situation. It's going to be able to ship oil unsanctioned, which brings all of that Iranian production back onto the global market. Heretofore, it's just been steeply discounted and almost entirely shipped to China. Now it would be available for the whole world at a market price, which actually helps Iran get back on its feet. And finally, and this is the crucial thing, everybody has forgotten that oil prices have had a built-in risk premium for decades based on the possibility that Iran might close the Strait. Well, we're seeing that in real time now. We're also seeing that that's about to end. When it's gone definitively, oil prices aren't just going to come back down to where they were. They're going to drop a lot lower than that. Okay, I also wanted to ask you this. You made some great points just now. The impact is likely limited, but what is the impact on the U.S.? Because it seems like from the U.S. side, we're very eager here. Besant saying we're allowing some previously restricted shipments to enter the global market. So how much is the impact? The real impact is quite minimal, actually. The market is overreacting. So the Iranian oil that's already been shipped out of Iran is pretty much under our control at this point. That was kind of a Hail Mary play by the Iranians, and it's backfiring on them. So we can use that crude now to significantly improve global supply. We're also releasing 400 million barrels from the U.S. and allied strategic petroleum reserves. That probably buys you a month by itself. We're also desanctioning for a limited time, for limited purposes, Russian oil exports, which gives them a foretaste of what could happen if they would make peace and the sanctions all go away. But it also reduces actual global supply shock. So again, I really believe the market's overreacting here. There's an opportunity to make money on that, of course. But it's not real. OK, let me just get your opinion on something you brought up, the release from the strategic petroleum reserve. In your opinion, is it justified? Some people are saying it's not justified. Some people are saying this is exactly the emergency where you would do this. Well, this is the reason those reserves were set up in the first place. You know, back in 75, the U.S. set up its own strategic petroleum reserve in Louisiana. And the idea was to avoid an oil shock like what we had in 1973. You're just not going to have that anymore in America, not the 73 oil shock, not the 79 oil shock, not even the 1990 disruption because of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. We are almost and could be, if we wish, entirely self-sufficient. Also, we have imports to the degree that we still choose to import for a variety of reasons from Canada and Venezuela. We don't need anybody outside of the Caribbean basin in North America, except in California, where Gavin Newsom's crazy Democrats have just made it impossible to produce oil. And so they actually import from the Middle East. They're the one part of the United States that is still dependent there. But that's not necessary. That's a choice. And for the rest of the country, we actually are not deeply affected by the Middle East. And if this were to carry on, what you would see is what is currently a global oil market begin to decouple. And suddenly, you know, you wouldn't just have a slight price differential between West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude. You would actually have a complete divergence in those two markets over time. We're never going to see that because this war is going to be over pretty soon. But that's what would happen. And America would be fine. And the rest of the world would have a problem. OK, understood. You mentioned earlier that there's money to be made in this situation. Prices going up and you're saying it's going to come down eventually. To you personally, what are the specific triggers that you're looking for for oil prices to come down? Well, the biggest thing is just winning the war. I mean, when it's done, it's done. But at some point, probably short of that, we're going to actually get really serious about clearing the mines out of the strait. Now, there are huge numbers of them because we sank the Iranian navy pretty quick at the outset of the war. So they haven't been able to go lay all the mines they'd like to. But what we've done since is we've destroyed not just the boats that would lay the mines. We have destroyed the factories that make the mines. So there is a real threat that it really does need to be taken seriously. And yet it's small. So the U.S. has more than enough capacity to be able to sweep the strait and get it free for commerce. You then still have a bit of a missile and drone threat. We can handle that. And we are handling it right now. So this doesn't last very long. And by the way, I want to give a shout out to Estonia, which was one of our very first NATO allies to step up. Their navy is actually specialized in mine sweeping. And they offered to help before any of our other allies that we supposedly count on did. So good for Estonia. And I'm really glad to see Keir Starmer and Mertz and the rest of them come around. So, Rod, OK, let me ask you one last question here. I'm wondering how is the Iran war impacting China's energy supply, specifically oil? I'm hearing reports that China is still getting some oil. Well, they are. And to the degree we're allowing Iranian oil to ship, they're certainly getting some of that, although Besant has said that we're going to redirect a good bit of that oil. The real problem for China is not so much the supply shock as the loss of the deeply discounted oil they've been getting from Venezuela, from Iran and from Russia. That accounts for more than 40 percent of their total imports. And they are highly import dependent. So if you're getting that at a ridiculous discount, that's running your economy. That's a huge cushion. It is an unfair trade advantage that they are getting by breaking international law that's about to go away. So in dealing with Iran, we dry up one of the main sources of that unfair advantage for the Chinese. And as we get to a peace in Ukraine, we're going to see the rest of it dry up because Russia's oil will no longer be sanctioned. It will be going at market price. And China has a teetering economy that that's going to impact in a pretty ugly way. OK, just just one final thing, then very quickly. So if the Russian oil dries up, too, how do you see the Chinese economy and its trajectory? Where is it headed? I think they're in danger of a real recession. And of course, you understand a recession is sustained growth under one percent. So, you know, potentially still grow. I've seen some pretty good numbers that suggest that the Chinese economy isn't growing anymore, certainly growing much, much less than its official numbers would suggest. So this is a country that's in a lot of trouble. As you know, they have a tremendous demographic crisis. They're at less than a 1.0 total fertility rate. It takes 2.1 to be able to just replace your population. We have several smart demographers who believe that that's going to stabilize at about a 0.8. What that does is it takes China's population from a current 1.3 billion range to about 310 million by the end of the century. And in the short term, of course, the older people are ballooning in number, while the working people, the working age people are shrinking rapidly. So you have fewer people taking care of more and more older people, and their investments are in real estate. It's shrinking in value precisely because there are fewer people. So China's economy has about 10 years tops before this starts going into freefall. And this oil shift potentially pushes it toward, if not over that cliff. Wow, 10 years tops. This is very eye-opening insight, Rod. Thank you very much for sharing. Thank you. As billions continue pouring into artificial intelligence, some investors are warning the sector could be overheating. One venture capitalist says signs of overinvestment are already emerging, though he doesn't expect a crash like the dot-com era. Here's more. Well, when it comes to AI, we got to talk about the potential bubble. There's reports $1.4 trillion investments versus $13 billion revenue. What are your thoughts about this potential bubble? Is it more of a question of if or when? I think it's more of a question of when. Interesting, because we've been looking at the comparison to this bubble to the dot-com bubble. Perhaps the problem with the AI bubble right now is that so many people recognize that this is a once-in-a-lifetime moment, that then everyone is rushing into this area. Historically, whenever that happens, pricing goes up and valuations go to extreme heights. It definitely feels like there's overinvestment in the sector. It feels like there's going to be too many companies funded. But the fever pitch that we hit in the dot-com bubble, we're not there yet. This time around, we have the revolution being led by the biggest of incumbents. A lot of the capital infrastructure, CAPEX that's being incurred, is being incurred by the Metas of the world or the Googles of the world. So these are companies with extremely healthy balance sheets. And so I think just as it does not appear as kind of overvalued as it was in the dot-com time, that means that if something were to correct, I don't think it would be as bad as it was. I also think that there is a funny sort of social observation that I would give to, which was the pace of innovation, the pace of change with the AI bubble is so extreme that adjusting our workflows, thinking about this on a daily basis can be exhausting. I think if we actually saw a bubble pop and things cool back down, I think a lot of people would be happy. Very interesting perspective. Now, let's talk about job displacement. There's a lot of talk. I think I remember this conversation between Jensen Huang and Elon Musk saying that as AI develops, they're going to be busier. But what about the hundred millions of people who are maybe the factory workers, the cashiers or the logistics or whatever? It's sort of everyday working people, right? Which jobs will change? We've seen in past AI or past technology platform shifts, is that usually there's a new set of roles that are created. And I don't think we've yet seen, there might be prompt engineers, there might be things like that. But if you look at after the mobile revolution, nobody anticipated that influencers, individual influencers, were going to be a profession that you would generate a lot of income off of. We didn't foresee that. Where today, I think today's youth will look at that and say, yes, of course, I aspire to become an influencer. I think we'll see the rise of jobs like that, but we just haven't really seen it yet. I'll tell you a story that I'd heard from a friend of mine who works at an insurance company. So his company had employees working in a call center. I think he said it was about 300 employees. They wanted to start using AI to do call center sport and using voice bots to handle this. And so they said, okay, we're going to take the staff and we're going to retrain them. And let's think about where we can redeploy the staff as opposed to letting them go. They started retraining them into outbound sales. Six months later, along comes outbound sales, sort of voice chatbots. And they're like, well, wait a minute, maybe that's not the right place to retrain them to. And I feel like we're going to be a little bit of this hopping from one island to another as we sort of figure out what the next set of roles will be for people. Tell us about some of the companies. What's the percentage of companies you invest in that are fully AI focused? I'd say of the newer investments, probably like 70, 80%. We also, I find even the ones that are in the remaining 20 to 30%, they might not be fully AI focused, meaning they're not necessarily building AI infrastructure, but they're leveraging AI to deliver something new into their own areas. You had an example about investing in, you know, you try to diversify. Yes, that's right. Away from AI. Yeah, that sort of goes to the scale of the impact of the AI investment wave. So we're part of this broader family office in Toronto. The family office there, I think, was trying to diversify away into other areas to balance sort of the mix of investments and mix of risks. And, you know, one of the things that was sort of remarkable was that they had invested in a fund that basically invests in farmland. It's like a farmland investment fund. And, you know, the other day it was funny because they got a distribution coming back from that manager and they sort of say, hey, we didn't expect to see this much capital coming back. What happened? And it turns out one of the farms that they own was actually bought to put in place a metadata center. And so, you know, it's like one of the new AI data centers. And so even when you try to diversify, I kind of feel like it comes back. And, you know, I think for asset managers, finding something that is not correlated to the AI wave probably is becoming a little more challenging. Next, two lawmakers are calling on Commerce Secretary Howard Lettnick to enforce export controls over advanced AI chips. This after three individuals were charged on Thursday for conspiring to smuggle advanced NVIDIA chips to China. According to the DOJ indictment released on Thursday, the three individuals allegedly conspired to sell $2.5 billion worth of servers to a company based in Southeast Asia. And part of them eventually were repackaged and shipped to China. Those servers include NVIDIA's B200 and H200 GPUs, which are banned from selling to China without a license. One U.S. citizen and two Taiwanese citizens were involved in the conspiracy. Two of the defendants were arrested while remains at large. The U.S. citizen named Wally Liao was a co-founder of server maker Supermicrocomputer. The company said Liao has resigned from his board of directors and is put on leave. On the following day, Senator Tom Kalten and Congressman Bill Huizong sent a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lettnick expressing their concern over the security of advanced U.S. chips. They're calling on the Commerce Department to protect key U.S. intellectual property from communist China's reach. Hawaii is experiencing the most severe flooding in over 20 years, with no fatalities reported so far. More news after this break. Stay with us. It's finally here, our second annual mega sale. 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Hawaii is facing its most severe flooding in over two decades, driven by consecutive Kona low storms dumping heavy rain on saturated ground. Here's more. The island of Oahu saw some of the heaviest impacts. Chest-high floodwaters lifted homes and cars, closed roads, and prompted evacuations for more than 5,500 residents. More than 230 people have been rescued with no fatalities reported. Authorities also warned that a 120-year-old dam could fail. The National Weather Service says flood warnings remain in effect, and some areas could still see periods of heavy rain. Governor Josh Green estimates damages could surpass 1 billion, affecting homes, infrastructure, schools, airports, and more across islands like Maui, Molokai, and Lanai. This is going to have a very serious consequence for us as a state, though we have support. We are now beginning to contemplate the reality that this storm could cost over a billion dollars of damage in both the private and public sector. Lots of damage at schools, roads, and then, of course, the innumerable events that have happened at people's homes where they've lost structure and it will have to be repaired. But I am happy to report that my chief of staff spoke to the White House today, and they are offering their assurance that we're going to have support. The same can be said of FEMA. They've been with us from the beginning as they were with us in the fire, and before, we have support, and we will come through this together. A second, milder Kona Lowe storm is continuing to bring rain to parts of the state, with several inches reported in some areas. Flood watches and warnings remain in effect, with flash flood risks persisting in Maui County. Officials are urging people to avoid flooded roads. And emergency shelters remain open. Federal aid is expected as cleanup efforts get underway in the hardest-hit areas, while the system gradually shifts east. Somatic well-being, a holistic approach to fitness that focuses on the mind-body connection, is gaining traction as more people look for ways to manage stress and improve resilience. NTD's Daniel Monaghan spoke with a VIP fitness trainer about how it works and about practical exercises, especially for those over 50. Somatic well-being emphasizes mindfulness, gentle movement and breath work to regulate the nervous system. VIP fitness trainer Tommy Akande says it's about listening to your body, not overriding it. Instead of thinking you're out of stress, you can use breath work, movement, sensation, to help your nervous system feel relaxed and calm again, instead of pushing your way through. It's all about listening to your body signals and your signs, instead of what we've been taught over the years just to power through and push through. Akande says that's the opposite of traditional fitness. It downshifts the system. It's more slower, gentler, and it really meets the body where it's at. This is why people are resonating so much at the moment. Lengthen your exhales. Inhale through the nose and out through the mouth. Make sure your exhales are longer than your inhales. Try to go for a double count. Just doing this alone lets your nervous system know that it's safe and that's where real regulation starts. Right, Kyle? He agrees. Akande says somatic work is especially helpful for people who feel wired but tired, overstimulated, or emotionally drained. Those who can't sleep, this is perfect for you. It helps the nervous system feel safe again so it can actually relax. She also recommends what she calls micro-rituals throughout the day. Simple, short reset. 30 seconds to 2 minutes. That's enough of it to calm the nervous system. Neck rotations, long exhales, grounding your feet. All of this is better than trying to do a long join-up process that no one ever seeks to. Akande also shared strength exercises especially beneficial for those over 50. The farmer's walk strengthens the core, forearms, shoulders, and upper back. It also improves balance and stability and enhances grip strength, which she says is linked to longevity. The posterior chain exercise or hip hinge roll hits the glutes, hamstrings, and lower back. It supports healthy posture and back strength and reduces the risk of lower back pain and falls. Bent over cable rows strengthen the upper back, rear shoulders, and core stabilizers. They improve posture and shoulder health and counter long periods of sitting. The floor chest or triceps press works the chest, triceps, and front shoulders. It protects shoulders with a minimum range of movements. It also supports pushing movements and daily life. While step-ups work the quadriceps, glutes, hamstrings, and core. They build leg strength and bone density. They also support stair climbing and everyday mobility while improving balance and coordination. From slowing down the nervous system to strengthening muscles after 50, Akande says fitness doesn't have to be extreme to be effective. Daniel Monahan, NTD News. The weekend's big new movie soared even higher than expected at the box office. Here are the early estimates for the top five films in theaters. Do you know how to wash dishes? Seven years experience. Okay. Now can I ask you to expand on that? Reminders of Him fell to fifth place on eight million dollars in ticket sales. Whoever wins runs everything. Everything? The world. Ready or Not 2 Here I Come started out in fourth place with 9.1 million dollars. The Hindi action flick Durandar The Revenge opened in third place earning 9.6 million dollars in fewer than a thousand theaters. What's your name beaver? Uh, fable? Hoppers lost its crown slipping to second place with 18 million dollars for a domestic total of 120 million. It is time go. I think you mean go time pal. Project Hail Mary blasted off with 80.6 million dollars. The best debut of the year and the best opening ever for Amazon MGM Studios. For round the clock coverage, visit us at ntd.com slash live or download our NTD app. That's all for tonight's news. Thank you for tuning in. I'm Don Ma. Good night.