(國語）對庫爾斯克事件行動不利，俄軍高層動蕩｜【 #時事軍事】

Hello, I am Xia Lushan. Although there are still many speculations about the purpose of Ukraine's special military operation in Kursk, finally some statements seem to express the official opinion of Ukraine, that is, Ukraine does not intend to occupy the Russian territory forever. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Dikhey said on August 13 that Ukraine is not interested in taking the territory of the Kursk region. If Kiev can use the long-range weapons provided by the United States to strike Russian military targets, Ukraine's invasion is not so necessary. Ukraine's main purpose is to strike the Russian territory, threaten the enemy of the Ukrainian territory, in order to better protect the lives of the Ukrainian people. This is why Ukraine is committed to liberating these border areas from the Russian army that attacked Ukraine. He said that Kiev's actions in Kursk are realizing the relevant goals, making the Russian army's logistics complex, and forcing Russia to adjust the Donetsk front line troops. Kurchis, a senior researcher at the Washington-Hudson Institute, said that the Kursk attack signals to the West that Ukraine is still firm and capable of winning the war. He also emphasized that Russia's threat of war escalation is a joke and too serious. The psychological impact of the Kursk attack will revive the morale of the Ukrainians and cause a turmoil for Russia. In fact, a certain degree of chaos seems to have begun to appear in the Kremlin. Kiev's actions forced Moscow and the Russian military command to react and re-draft countermeasures against the areas attacked by the Ukrainian army. Russian military blogger Putin revealed on August 13 that Putin had appointed nine former Kremlin agents in charge of defense in the Kursk region. It seems to have replaced Gerasimov, head of the Army, in charge of the region. Putin appointed nine people to monitor the progress of the counter-terrorism operation, but the main task was to defeat the Ukrainian armed forces. When the news of the appointment of nine people who served as Putin's bodyguards was spread, Gerasimov seemed to ignore the intelligence warning. Still, the Ukrainian army was preparing to launch an armored attack on Kursk, so his troops were attacked. Kremlin sources believe that Moscow was disappointed with Gerasimov's way of handling the war. As the Ukrainian army entered the Kursk region, similar accusations about Gerasimov began to circulate on the Russian Telegram channel. Svyatukov, who served as the Russian Defense Minister, said on the Russian Telegram channel that the appointment of nine people shows that the Kremlin does not think that Gerasimov can lead the Russian army without Moscow's participation in solving the Kursk crisis. Some people speculate that Putin has appointed the Russian Federal Security Director Volodinnikov to take charge of the Kursk region. The War Research Institute believes that Putin's appointment of Volodinnikov is very likely. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on December 12 that this operation was a disaster for Putin. Russia is bringing the war against other countries back to its own home. Ukrainian General Secretary of the Armed Forces, Sergei Shevchenko, said that Russia had already controlled about 380 square kilometers of Russian territory. Former diplomat Sulyvin served as U.S. Special Envoy to Moscow from 2020 to 2022. He said in an interview with the media that the U.S. has delayed the decision to provide weapons to Ukraine for too long. The reason is that he was worried that Washington would exaggerate Putin's so-called red line. Washington is Kiev's largest military backer, with a total of 5.6 billion U.S. dollars. But these aides, due to concerns about Putin's possible extreme reaction, especially the impact of his nuclear-threatening remarks, have been delayed or restricted from being used. Sulyvin said that the U.S. has not been able to meet Ukraine's combat needs in time, and has been delaying long-range and heavy weapons. In fact, after the Biden administration approved Western allies to hand over the F-16 fighter to Ukraine, and even after the Ukrainian army entered Russian territory and launched large-scale operations, none of these actions, which had been designated by Putin as a red line, have caused Russia's extreme reaction so far. Sulyvin believes that as time goes by, people are beginning to understand Putin's mentality. The red line is just a means of intimidation. Ukraine can use the weapons provided by the West to hit the Crimea target in Russia's absence of a catastrophic reaction, and almost drove the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of the Black Sea. This fact shows that Putin's threat of a catastrophic reaction has been overestimated. He said that Putin's concern about the red line should not be an important factor in the decision-making process, because in fact, the U.S. has already participated in the war against Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As a hostile action, anything that should have happened has already happened. And why didn't those red lines happen? It's because they didn't dare to do that from the beginning. Putin obviously didn't want to have a nuclear war with the United States. No sane person would do that. Putin is not a real madman. However, it is easy to say that Russia will not use nuclear weapons. But for those who really make the policy, including the U.S. and Western leaders, this is a very serious choice. No matter how low the risk is, the consequences are very serious. At present, the most urgent decision in the face of the United States and the West is whether to further release the restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western weapons to hit Russian domestic military targets. The attitude of Putin is that if the U.S. and the West let go of all the restrictions on long-range weapons, it would have been possible to avoid large-scale troops entering the Russian territory. Because the Russian army, relying on the advantage of not being attacked outside a certain range of the border area, has already posed a fatal threat to Ukraine. Ukraine has no choice. Of course, this is just one aspect of the problem. Putin will not drag out the entire action plan. The entire picture of the Kursk operation, including whether Ukraine hopes to evacuate the Russian army from the eastern line, and how long the Ukrainian army will stay here, the outside world still does not know. Putin may say that he does not want to occupy Kursk, but he may not withdraw in the short term. In addition to the tactical reasons, the political impact of the Kursk operation may be worth thinking about. First of all, Ukraine has shown the world, especially its Western allies, that Ukraine still has a strong fighting will, which is worthy of the efforts of its Western allies. The assistance of the U.S. and the West is not to prolong the war, but to end the war as soon as possible. Whether it is to defeat the enemy on the battlefield or through diplomatic efforts. Second, the Ukrainian army may use the Kursk territory, to show the Kremlin a different prospect, weakening its strong position. Losing the territory in the war with Ukraine is not a matter of Putin's personal acceptance, but a matter of the whole of Russia. Putin may lose support and legitimacy. This will undoubtedly add to the Ukraine in the possible diplomatic channels or the end of the war negotiations. Third, through this operation, Ukraine may give the Kursk people a chance to choose again, Under the supervision of the international community, Kursk legally withdrew from Russia, thereby affecting the domino effect of Bill Graham and Bransk. These three provinces had a natural connection with Ukraine. Many residents still speak Ukrainian. This is not to encourage Ukraine to split Russia, but through this possibility, to show the serious consequences of the Kremlin's presence. Therefore, when it is necessary to make a choice, it is more wise, rather than arrogant and rigid as it is now. Didn't Russia claim that in 2022, the Russians in eastern Ukraine would be liberated from the hands of the new Nazi Ukraine? According to this logic, Ukraine can also claim that in 2024, the Ukrainians in western Russia will be liberated from the hands of Russian fascists. Or imagine, through larger-scale military efforts, to take over the three provinces in western Russia, and in exchange for Donetsk, Lugansk and Crimea, which were occupied by Russia in 2014, as well as Crimea, which was occupied by Russia in 2014. Kursk may be proven to be Putin's curse. The Russian submarine Kursk sank in August 2020, a year after Putin took office. Perhaps Putin is more willing to compare the Kursk-Tank War in 1943. At that time, in Kursk, the Soviet army destroyed the German army. But from a historical point of view, the real lesson of this battle is that the invaders lost to the resistance who had no choice but to fight to the end. Thus, Putin may find that Kursk may be the turning point that led to the failure of the invasion of Ukraine initiated by him. That's all for today. Thank you for watching. See you next time.