（國語）以軍不願停止清剿哈馬斯，伊朗的襲擊將給以軍製造行動升級藉口｜【 #時事軍事】

Hello, I'm Xia Lushan. Iran and ISIS have announced that they will launch a large-scale attack on Israel, in retaliation for the recent assassinations of several ISIS leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Haniyeh. Iran's senior security officials, including General Secretary of the Armed Forces Bagheri and Secretary of State for National Security Ahmadinejad, have all said that Iran and ISIS will retaliate against Israel. Iranian leaders met with senior ISIS officials to coordinate their joint attack. Many of them stayed in Tehran after attending the inauguration of Iranian President Pezar Shijian. Iranian official media also said that the attack on Israel, which is about to be led by Iran, will be similar to the drone and missile attacks on Israel launched by Iran in April this year, but larger in scale. Iran and ISIS are almost certainly considering how to cause more damage to Israel than the attack in April this year. They believe that the attack failed to pay enough price to Israel, so it failed to play a deterrent role. In the attack in April this year, Iran launched about 170 Shenfeng attack drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles against Israel. At that time, Iran designed this attack plan, consisting of about 300 long-range guided missiles, to cause serious damage to Israel. Iran specifically targeted two remote targets in Israel, including an air base in the southern desert of Israel and an intelligence center in the Golan Heights. In that attack, the Libyan People's Liberation Army and Yemeni Hussein armed forces also launched dozens of rockets, drones and ballistic missiles. Iran seems to have borrowed Russia's way of fighting in Ukraine. Iran concluded by observing how the Russian army used drones and missiles to attack Ukraine. They can also use a similar method to attack Israel's air defense systems and other targets. However, Iran's attack in April this year did not seem to have achieved the expected effect. The United States, Israel and its allies successfully intercepted most of Iran's long-range missiles. Therefore, the damage caused by Iran's attack to Israel is far less than expected. However, the advantage of Iran is that it did not cause Israel to directly upgrade its large-scale operations against Iran. Iran's drones need to fly for hours to reach Israel. This gives the United States, Israel and its allies plenty of time to prepare for defense, intercept all drones and subsequent ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. Iran's leaders may think that their attack in April this year did not have a deterrent effect on Israel. Iran may be planning the next attack to build a deterrent against Israel. But at the same time, it may also try to avoid launching a large-scale war. This is related to the development of the situation in the Middle East. This may be the most important issue for people. One of the more dangerous and likely situations is that Iran and the Resistance are learning lessons from April this year and trying to make Israel feel the pain. Iran may launch a large-scale drone and missile joint attack through regional agents. At the same time, it may launch more ballistic missiles from Iran to increase the intensity of the attack on Israel. In this case, the Pearl Party, Houthi armed forces and Iraqi and Syrian people's forces supported by Iran may launch an attack at the same time. This may further weaken or even balance Israel's air defense capabilities. From where these Iranian agents are located, they will launch an attack on Israel. Due to the shorter flight distance and time, the preparation time for the United States and Israel to intercept these attacks will be greatly reduced. Therefore, these attacks are more difficult to intercept than drones and missiles launched from Iran. In order to achieve the attack effect, Iran may use the shorter flight time to concentrate firepower to attack a single target within Israel, rather than two or more targets. Iran's regional agents can take advantage of geographical location to more easily coordinate with Iran's faster ballistic missiles, so that these different speeds and different distances of attack can arrive at the same time and concentrate on attacking the same specific target in Israel. This will cause a more complex situation for the U.S. and Israeli air defense systems in some areas, and even super-complex pressure, thereby creating opportunities to break through the Israeli air defense system. Since the unsuccessful attack in April this year, Iran and the Resistance have been exploring the Israeli air defense system extensively, and trying to find more effective ways to break through. In fact, the Pearl Party and Hussein armed forces launched an attack and bypassed the Israeli air defense system, causing casualties. In recent months, the drones launched by the Libyan Pearl Party have penetrated the Israeli air defense system using the short flight time and the complex terrain in the mountains. Although this is not a common occurrence, it does create pressure for Israel to intercept the Pearl Party drones. This also reminds Israel and its allies not to take lightly the possible larger-scale attacks. With the strength of the U.S. and Israel's multi-layer air defense system, and the understanding of Iran and its regional agents' ability to attack, people seem to have no reason to feel pessimistic about Israel's ability to resist Iran's attack. Recently, the conflict in the Middle East suddenly escalated. On July 27, the Pearl Party launched an attack on the Golan Heights, causing the death of 12 Israeli children. After that, Israel took revenge. Within hours, at least three Hamas and Pearl Party leaders were killed. Now, Iran swears to work with regional agents to launch a more fatal attack on Israel. Will this lead to an uncontrollable situation? Whether it is the U.S., Israel and its allies, or Iran and its regional agents, they may not want the conflict to escalate. However, compared to Israel, Iran may be more reluctant to let the war in the Middle East burn on itself. Especially when Israel is determined to completely eradicate Hamas, the escalation of the conflict may hit Israel hard. But on the surface, Iran can't swallow its anger. It must show some dignity in front of the regional agents. Recently, people may have heard that the leaders of the Resistance Center in Tehran have been sending radical remarks against Israel. There is a mountain of rain coming down from the sky. The danger is that Iran and its regional agents' attack on Israel is controlled by a more powerful counterattack that will not trigger Israel. If Iran's plan to target Haifa and Tel Aviv, these two densely populated cities, even if it is one or two specific military targets, once it causes the loss of Israeli civilians or serious damage to civilian infrastructure, it may quickly lead to an expanded war, regardless of whether Iran intends to start such a public war. Given the concerns about Iran's long-range weaponry performance and hit accuracy, the attack on Israeli city-nearby targets is easy to be understood as a more extensive war against Israeli civilians. Therefore, the risk of Israeli leaders' misjudgment is very high. The key is that Iran's actions may give Israel a very reasonable excuse. The United States and British officials have been in contact with Israel, confirming their support and coordinating their defense operations, and preparing for the attack on Israel led by Iran. U.S. President Joe Biden called Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on August 1, reiterating U.S. support for Israel's security commitment, including the deployment of new defense weapons. U.S. Defense Secretary Austin and Israeli Defense Secretary Gallant discussed U.S. defense preparations for support for Israel. British Army Secretary-General Ratajkin also discussed the cooperation of British troops in the region with Israeli ally Halawi. On August 2, the Secretary of State for News at the Pentagon said, more defensive military forces will be deployed to the Middle East to strengthen U.S. military defense in the region and defend Israel. This deployment is to deal with the threat posed by Iranian and Iranian-supported civilian organizations. He emphasized that U.S. global defense is dynamic. The Department of Defense has retained the ability to deploy armed forces in a short period of time to deal with the ever-changing security threat. The Pentagon said, The U.S. will send a combat team to the Middle East and maintain a carrier strike group and more land-based missile defense systems in the region. Strengthen U.S. military presence to help protect Israel from attacks by Iran and its agents. That's all for today. Thank you for watching. See you next time.