As Xi Jinping’s Eyes Fourth Term, Questions Loom Over Beijing’s Inner Circle

China’s ruling Communist Party (CCP) has begun laying the groundwork for its next leadership transition, with new disciplinary rules and personnel appointments raising questions about leader Xi Jinping’s political standing as he prepares for a possible fourth term as party leader.

Following the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, held Oct. 26–29, Beijing announced that the CCP’s 21st National Congress would convene in the second half of 2027.

Political commentator Du Zheng, writing for Taiwan-based Up Media, argued that the unusually early announcement suggests preparations for the leadership reshuffle are accelerating, raising new concerns about challenges to Xi’s continued rule. Du also examined the possible political calculations of the seven members of the CCP’s Politburo Standing Committee, China’s highest decision-making body.

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Questions over Xi’s authority

The plenum adopted a resolution on strengthening party discipline that places renewed emphasis on democratic centralism, collective decision-making, and limits on the authority of individual party leaders.

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According to the official document, party secretaries must listen to differing opinions and refrain from exercising unchecked personal authority. The resolution explicitly prohibits “one-man rule” and “paternalistic leadership,” while warning officials against substituting individual preferences for collective decisions or demanding personal loyalty from subordinates.

Du interpreted the language as a possible concession by Xi, whose leadership has otherwise been characterized by the concentration of political authority. He argued that emphasizing internal party democracy could help Xi secure support from Central Committee members ahead of the 2027 congress.

Zhang Shengmin’s rise

The plenum also elevated Central Military Commission (CMC) Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin to the Politburo following an extensive purge of senior military officials. In addition, the official communiqué confirmed the expulsions of 33 party members, including former CMC vice chairman Zhang Youxia and former Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli.

Zhang Shengmin, who oversees military discipline, became the Politburo’s only military representative. Du described his promotion as an effort by Xi to reinforce support within the armed forces, particularly after the removal of senior commanders. He also raised the possibility that Zhang Shengmin could build his own network of loyal officers through military personnel appointments.

The new resolution’s language rejecting rigid age-based selection criteria could also provide greater flexibility for senior officials approaching traditional retirement thresholds.

Li Qiang and the question of succession

Premier Li Qiang, 67, occupies the second-highest position in the CCP hierarchy. Du suggested that although Li has maintained a comparatively low political profile, his seniority could make him an important figure in any unexpected leadership transition. With Xi having designated no clear successor, Du argued that Li’s position could become particularly significant if the leadership arrangement changes before the next party congress.

However, China’s opaque political system provides no automatic mechanism through which the premier succeeds the party’s general secretary. Du also suggested that renewed scrutiny of officials’ relatives and financial interests could become a political weapon during the leadership reshuffle.

The party’s latest disciplinary resolution calls for stronger oversight of senior officials and their families, including investigations into corruption involving relatives.

Senior officials caught in the middle

Du identified several other Standing Committee members whose future positions could become subjects of negotiation. National People’s Congress Chairman Zhao Leji, 69, and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Chairman Wang Huning, 71, have both served two terms on the Standing Committee.

Du further suggested that Zhao may be seeking assurances against investigations after retirement, citing earlier political controversies involving his tenure in Shaanxi Province. Wang, meanwhile, could seek to retain influence over party ideology and policy development after leaving the Standing Committee, potentially through another senior appointment.

Cai Qi, 70, Xi’s powerful chief of staff and director of the CCP General Office, may also seek to remain in the leadership or move into the state vice presidency, according to Du. The commentator suggested that Wang, Cai, and anti-corruption chief Li Xi could potentially compete for the vice presidency if they leave the Standing Committee.

Though largely ceremonial in recent years, the office has sometimes provided retiring senior officials with continued political visibility.

Internal fractures abound

Executive Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang, 64, is the youngest member of the current Standing Committee. Du argued that his age and longstanding association with Xi make him a strong candidate to remain in the leadership after 2027.

He compared Ding’s close relationship with Xi to the political loyalty that helped Hua Guofeng succeed Mao Zedong in 1976. However, that historical comparison does not establish Ding as Xi’s chosen successor, and Beijing has announced no succession arrangement.