UNITED STATES — The US economy was expected to expand at a faster pace in the third quarter, as resilient household spending and investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure helped counter the effects of rising oil prices and disruptions to international trade.
A Reuters survey of economists projected that gross domestic product would increase at an annualized rate of 3.2% during the July-September quarter, up from 2.2% growth in the second quarter. The US Commerce Department was scheduled to publish its advance GDP estimate on Thursday.
Consumer spending, which represents more than two-thirds of US economic activity, was forecast to grow at a rate above 3%, following a 3.8% increase in the previous quarter.
Employment gains, rising wages and a robust stock market continued to underpin household spending. Nevertheless, persistently high food and energy prices were squeezing consumers, with some households using their savings to sustain purchases.
Average gasoline prices in the United States remained above $4 per gallon as the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran continued to disrupt energy markets. Economists cautioned that prolonged fuel price increases could eventually prompt consumers to cut back on spending.
Investment associated with artificial intelligence was also providing significant support for economic growth. Businesses continued to acquire equipment and construct data centers to meet growing computing demands. Spending on business equipment was expected to post double-digit growth for a third consecutive quarter.
Investment in intellectual property and inventories was also projected to add to economic output.
However, increased imports associated with AI expansion contributed to a larger US goods trade deficit. Economists estimated that the trade shortfall could reduce third-quarter GDP growth by at least four percentage points, although investment in other areas was expected to cushion part of the impact.
The housing sector faced additional headwinds. Elevated mortgage rates, construction costs, tariffs on imported materials and limited supplies of land and labor were expected to constrain residential construction investment.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged within a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, while recognizing that inflation remained elevated. Economists expected the central bank could increase rates in December.
The economic outlook therefore remained uneven. Consumer demand and AI-related corporate investment were supporting expansion, but expensive energy and borrowing costs threatened to strain household budgets and slow housing activity.
Some economists also raised concerns about the sustainability of growth if the economy remained heavily reliant on AI investment and consumer spending bolstered by rising stock-market wealth.
The forthcoming economic figures were expected to provide a clearer assessment of both the strength of the US economy and the durability of its main growth drivers amid persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty.
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